Commodity research report 11 december 2017 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29-DEC-2017

134

132.50

131

130.20

129.50

128.70

128

126.50

125

COPPER

28- FEB-2018

441.40

436.80

432.20

430

427.60

425.30

423

418.40

413.80

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

4033

3913

3793

3742

3674

3622

3559

3433

3313

GOLD

05-FEB -2018

29088

28900

28730

28630

28550

28460

28370

28190

28010

LEAD

29-DEC-2017

168.40

164.80

161.25

159.0

157.80

156.20

154.10

150.60

147.10

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

192.80

188.60

184.50

182.30

180.20

178

176.10

171.80

167.70

NICKEL

29-DEC-2017

750

735

721

713

706

699

693

679

665

SILVER

05-MAR-2018

38043

37710

37377

37216

37050

36883

36711

36380

36040

ZINC

29-DEC-2017

205.60

203.50

201.50

200

199.20

198.30

197.40

195.40

793.30

Monday 11 December 2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29-DEC-2017

145.10

140.25

135.40

132.50

130.55

127.55

1125.50

120.85

116

COPPER

28- FEB-2018

509

480

456

441

432

418

408

385

361

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

4120

3974

3828

3760

3660

3610

3536

3390

3244

GOLD

05-FEB -2018

31155

30326

29557

29045

28770

28246

27960

27160

26360

LEAD

29-DEC-2017

189.70

179.70

169.80

164

160.50

154.10

149.90

139.90

130.10

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

258

234.60

210.70

195.30

186

171

162.90

139

115

NICKEL

29-DEC-2017

856

808

761

733

713

685

665

617

570

SILVER

05-MAR-2018

42030

40500

38970

38015

37450

36480

35900

34390

32853

ZINC

29-DEC-2017

234

223.70

213.10

206.10

202.30

195.10

191.60

180.90

170.20

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY USDINR

EXPIRY DATE 27-DEC-17

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

65.6150

65.25

64.900

64.700

64.550

00

0

0

S4

64.350

64.200

63.850

0

0

0

0

63.4850

EURINR

27-DEC-17

79.61

78.50

77.35

76.65

76.25

75.55

75.15

74.00

72.89

GBPINR

27-DEC-17

88.2250

87.85

87.500

87.250

87.100

86.900

86.750

86.350

85.9750

00

0

0

0

0

0

0

78.50

77.350

76.650

76.250

75.550

75.150

74.000

00

0

0

0

0

0

0

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

64.9500

64.7500

64.6500

64.60

64.500

64.450

64.250

64.10

00

0

0

0

50

JPYINR

27-DEC-17

79.6025

72.8975

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

USDINR

27-DEC-17

R4 65.0950

EURINR

27-DEC-17

77.17

GBPINR

27-DEC-17

88.2250

JPYINR

27-DEC-17

58.9950

76.80

76.40

76.15

76.00

75.75

75.60

75.20

74.83

87.8500

87.5000

87.2500

87.10

86.900

86.750

86.350

85.97

00

0

0

0

50

57.15

56.750

56.550

55.900

55.30

00

0

0

0

50

58.4000

57.7500

57.4000

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ BULLION Last week, spot gold prices declined by 2.5% while MCX gold prices declined by 3 percent. Gold prices declined to a four month low in the past week on optimism about passage of tax overhaul in the US. Although, the investment demand has seen uptick in the recent months with global holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) rising by 9.1 tonnes to 2,357 tonnes in November, with the net inflows coming entirely from Europe, gold prices are moving lower on the assumption that rate hike in the FOMC meeting scheduled on 13-14th December will be as per market expectations. Besides, India's gold imports in November nearly halved from a year ago as a rise in the price of the yellow metal curbed retail buying for weddings in turn lower prices for gold.

Spot silver prices declined 3.6 percent to close at $15.8 per ounce in line with decline in gold prices coupled with stronger dollar index. Weak base metals pack also exerted downside pressure on the metal. ON the MCX, silver prices declined 2.3 percent to close at Rs.37057 per kg SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchanget raded fund, said its holdings stood at 842.81 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10088.59 up 46.96 tonnes, from previous business day.

✍ BASE METAL Copper prices witnessed their worst one day fall as passage of US tax bill by both houses increased bets of reform sooner than expected, thereby boosting DX to highest since 2nd Oct’17. Also, sudden surge of more than 5 percent in LME warehouses in a day led to investors’ doubts regarding market tightness. However, Chinese imports data came to the rescue as arrivals of unwrought copper surged in November’17 to 470,000 tonnes, 42.3 percent from 330,000 tonnes in October’17 and up 23.7 percent from 380,000 tonnes in November’16 as stringent output curbs in the mainland nation boosted shipments of overseas metal.

Base metals traded mostly lower last week as investors take profit off the table cashing in gains for most of the year’s rally. Copper, Nickel, Aluminium, Lead have all fallen by more than 3 percent in the past week.

MCX base metals traded lower in line with international trends.

� ENERGY WTI and MCX oil prices traded lower last week by 3 percent respectively on profit booking at higher levels. Sharp rise in U.S. inventories of refined fuel suggested demand may be flagging, while U.S. crude production hit another weekly record.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of crude to a North Asian refiner in January, unchanged from the previous month, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Monday.

Kuwait's oil minister Essam alMarzouq said on Sunday that OPEC and other oil producers will study before June the possibility of an exit strategy from the global oil supply-cut agreement.

President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia was ready to sell gas to Saudi Arabia after he launched the first loading of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Novatek-led Yamal LNG project in the Arctic.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW ✍ COPPER In this week, Copper prices will continue to be under pressure as global investors will closely watch FOMC and ECB monetary policy meeting for cues on future course. Also, China industrial production and retail sales are due on 14th Dec’17. We expect copper prices to fall even in today’s session, international markets are trading marginally higher by 0.11 percent at $6578.50 per tonne.

SELL COPPER FEB BELOW 423 TGT 413 SL 428

� ZINC The primary trend is bearish on daily basis as displayed. As we can see the previous chart market price on its important support level and we are expecting market can break it support level. It’s facing near resistance level at Rs. 202 and support level at Rs. 198.50 .Below the support level we can see the next target near of Rs. 196 and Rs. 195. Investors can follow the sell on higher level strategy for intra day to mid term basis. Apart from this above the resistance level could see a test of level 205.

SELL ZINC DEC BELOW 198.50 TGT 195.80 SL 200.10

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

SYOREFIDR

19-JAN-2018

747.20

739.65

732.1

727.60

SYBEANIDR

19-JAN-2018

3229

3194

3159

RMSEED

19-JAN-2018

4175

4121

JEERAUNJHA

19-JAN-2018

22750

GUARSEED10

19-JAN-2018

TMC

20-APR-2018

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

742.50

720.10

716.80

709.50

701.70

3142

3124

3105

3089

3054

3019

4067

4041

4013

3987

3959

3905

3851

22350

21950

21780

21500

21300

21150

20750

20350

4248

4110

3972

3922

3834

3784

3696

3558

3420

7840

7698

7556

7485

7410

7473

7272

7130

6988

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE SYOREFIDR

19-JAN-2018

812.90

785.60

758.30

740.80

730.80

713.50

703.70

676.70

650

SYBEANIDR

19-JAN-2018

3320

3256

3193

3159

3130

3096

3067

3004

2941

RMSEED

19-JAN-2018

4659

4459

4260

4137

4061

3938

3862

3663

3464

JEERAUNJHA

19-JAN-2018

25050

23960

22870

22190

21780

21140

20650

19600

18510

GUARSEED10

19-JAN-2018

4650

4329

4133

4003

3860

3744

3615

3356

3097

TMC

20-APR-2018

8252

7970

7688

7551

7400

7269

7124

6842

6560

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SPICE COMPLEX Turmeric Apr futures closed lower on fresh selling by the Market Participants on expectation of good supplies from the new season. The supplies will be higher due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher during first 10 days in December this year to 10,130 tonnes compared to 3,372 tonnes last year same month according to Agmarknet data.

NCDEX Jan Jeera falls on Friday on fresh selling initiated by the market participants at higher levels coupled with encouraging jeera sowing progress in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 50% to 2.7 lakh ha this year compared to 1.8 lakh ha last year as on 4 th Dec. As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 10 days of Dec down by 60% to 906.7 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX Mustard Jan futures continue to close lower for 5th consecutive day on Friday due to steady physical demand and reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers. According to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov’17 was at 13 lakh tonnes.

Mills across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month. As per rabi sowing report from the government, the acreage of mustard, another major rabi crop, was at 59 lakh ha, down from 64 lakh ha a year ago. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.4 lakh ha.

NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive day on Friday mainly on fresh selling initiated by the market participants tracking spot prices. However, the trend looks positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates of meal exports for 2017/18.

Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals. According to SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives. India's soymeal exports during November surged to 207,630 tn from 97,750 tn a year ago. For Apr-Nov, exports of soymeal were estimated at 768,981 tn compared with 204,860 tn a year ago as per SEA monthly report. US Soybean settled 2-1/4 cents lower at $9.89-3/4 a bushel dropped 0.4 percent last week after rising in the previous four weeks mainly on improved weather conditions in Brazil and encouraging exports numbers

� OTHER COMPLEX Chana Jan futures plunge more than 6.3% last week as fresh selling is seen throughout the week due to improved sowing progress coupled with higher stocks in the country due to record imports. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the rabi chana crop across the country was up 10.25% on year at 89.6 lakh ha as on last week. The acreage of chana in MP and Karnataka, the largest and the second-largest grower of pulse, was up 17.1% on year at 31.24 lakh ha, and up 38.2% on year at 13.3 lakh ha, respectively. To encourage farmers, govt. increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per MCX Dec Cotton jumps higher by more than 2% on expectation of big fall in domestic output due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Concerns about crop quality have also impacted prices. Cotton production in Telangana this year is feared to come down drastically as it estimated that pink bollworm ay have eat up 40% of the cotton crop. According to trade sources, about 60 lakh bales have arrived in the Indian markets this season compared to 47.3 lakh bales last year till Dec 1. ICE cotton fell on Friday after hitting an over seven-month high earlier in the session as investors took profits and as the U.S. dollar firmed.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW � CARDAMOM MCX CARDAMOM futures last week closed above in important level of Rs.1000. Market is continuously trading on higher level indicating strong number of buyers. It is facing important resistance level at Rs.1070 above the level we believe that market can touch the level of Rs.1150 & Rs.1200. Traders can follow the buy on dips strategy. Momentum still positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the Natural gas.

BUY CARDAMOM ABOVE 1070 TGT 1150 SL 1010

� COTTON SEED OIL COCCUDAKL witnessed flat movement at NCDEX. Market is facing good support at the level of Rs. 1660 supported by 50 days moving average and getting bounce back and recently market has broken its trading range appearing on the chart image. Technically we believe that market can move higher from lower level and if market could break its trading range. Recently it is sustaining above important resistance of psychological number at Rs. 1600, it can move to the level of Rs. 1800 & Rs. 1900 . Also market also forming higher highs and higher low indicating upside momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating in the buying zone on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.

BUY COCUDAKL JAN ABOVE 1670 TGT 1770 SL 1595

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