✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL GOLD LEAD
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
99
97.90
96.15
94.40
29 FEB 2016 317.50 312.45 307.40 304.40 302.30 299.30 297.30 292.20
287.20
DATE
29 JAN 2016 104.90 103.15 101.40 100.80 99.65
2063
1974
26900 26582 26264 26123 25946 25805 25628 25310
24992
29 JAN 2016 116.45 114.25 112.05 110.60 109.85 108.45 107.65 105.45
103.25
19 JAN 2016 05 FEB 2016
NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016
2508
179
2419
2330
2287
2241
2198
2158
173.40 167.80 165.70 162.20 160.10 156.60
151
145.40
NICKEL
29 JAN 2016 609.40 595.50 581.60 575.70 567.70 561.80 553.80 539.90
526
SILVER
04 MAR 2016 36058 35364 34670 34247 33976 33553 33282 32588
31894
ZINC
29 JAN 2016
106
104.20 102.30 101.55 100.50 99.70
98.60
96.80
R3
S1
S2
98.35
96.55 93.70
94.90
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
ALUMINIUM COPPER
EXPIRY
R4
R2
R1
PP
29 JAN 2016 107.95 105.10 102.25 101.20 99.40 343
19 JAN 2016 3552
3142
323.80 312.60 304.50 293.30 285.30
S4
90.85
266
246.80
1502
1092
GOLD
05 FEB 2016 28980 27891 26802 26392 25713 25303 24624 23535
22446
LEAD
29 JAN 2016 141.40 131.50 121.70 115.45 111.80 105.60
92.10
82.30
144.50 129.80
115.10
CRUDE OIL
29 FEB 2016 362.30
S3
2732
2488
2322
NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 203.30 188.60 179.90 168.70 159.20 NICKEL SILVER ZINC
2078
154
29 JAN 2016 660.20 629.40 598.60 584.20 567.80 553.40 04 MAR 2016
1912
102
537
506.20 475.40
37600 36375 35150 34487 33925 33262 32700 31475
26 JAN 2016 124.85 117.10 109.35 105.05 101.60 97.30
93.85 86.10
30250 78.35
WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL CRUDEOIL JAN BELOW 2154 TGT 2000 SL 2306 BUY LEAD JAN ABOVE 111.30 TGT 113.30 SL 108.85
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25000 TGT 24850 SL 25203 - NOT EXECUTED
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
DATE
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27 JAN 2016 67.4 67.25 0
67.05
66.95
66.85
66.75
66.65
66.45
66.30
GBPINR
27 JAN 2016 73.8 73.50 5
73.15
72.90
72.75
72.55
72.40
72.05
71.65
EURINR
27 JAN 2016 99.1 98.70 5
98.25
98
97.85
97.55
97.40
96.95
96.50
JPYINR
27 JAN 2016 57.8 57.45 5
57
56.75
56.55
56.30
56.10
55.65
55.20
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
DATE
USDINR
27 JAN 2016 68.9 68.20 0
67.50
67.15
66.80
66.50
66.10
65.40
64.75
GBPINR
27 JAN 2016 76.6 75.30 5
73.95
73.35
72.55
71.95
71.20
69.80
68.45
EURINR
27 JAN 2016 102. 100.95 99.50 35
98.60
98.10
97.20
96.65
95.25
93.80
JPYINR
27 JAN 2016 61.2 59.65 5
57.25
56.35
55.60
54.70
53.05
51.40
58
WEEKLY FOREX CALL
SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.79 TGT 72.06 SL 73.72
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
L
SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.20 TGT 71.40 SL 73.10 - NOT EXECUTED
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
DATE
SYOREFIDR
19 FEB 2016
614
609
604
601
599
596
594
589
584
SYBEANIDR
19 FEB 2016 3955
3889
3823
3785
3757
3719
3691
3625
3559
4449
4355
4261
4203
4167
4109
4073
3979
3885
18 MAR 2016 15221 14886 14551 14343 14216 14008 13881 13546
13210
CHANA
20 APR 2016 4670
4579
4488
4431
4397
4340
4306
4215
4124
CASTORSEED
19 FEB 2016 3841
3789
3737
3709
3685
3657
3633
3581
3529
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
RMSEED JEERAUNJHA
20 APR 20165
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
SYOREFIDR
19 FEB 2016
670
647
624
611
601
588
578
555
532
SYBEANIDR
19 FEB 2016 4274
4106
3938
3842
3770
3674
3602
3434
3266
RMSEED
20 APR 2016 4589
4453
4317
4231
4181
4095
4045
3909
3773
18 MAR 2016 15880 15345 14805 14470 14265 13930 13725 13185
12645
CHANA
20 APR 2016 4987
4801
4615
4495
4423
4057
3871
3775
3589
CASTORSEED
19 FEB 2016 4035
3923
3811
3746
3699
3634
3587
3475
3363
JEERAUNJHA
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13600 SL 14630 BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 7940 TGT 8100 SL 7734 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13550 SL 14610 - NOT EXECUTED.
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS U.S. payrolls surged in December and the job count for the prior two months was revised sharply higher, showing the economy on solid ground despite a troubling international backdrop. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 292,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, as hiring got a boost from unseasonably warm weather. The unemployment rate held steady at a 7-1/2-year low of 5 percent even as more people entered the labor force, a sign of confidence in the job market. Chinese commodity funds see further falls in metal prices in 2016, but are eyeing potential buying opportunities in agricultural products and oil as beaten-down prices near the bottom of the cycle, fund sources said. As turmoil around China's falling yuan hits world share markets, many fund managers expect further weakness in the currency, and plan to increase their hedging or start taking out currency protection for the first time. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.3 percent in the last week owing to the robust release of Non-Farm Employment Change and unemployment rate data from the nation. Moreover, concerns with respect to the six-month selling ban for major stakeholders that was expected to expire in the last week and had sparked heavy selling thereby keeping the Chinese markets volatile Chinese volatility continued to subside.
� BULLION On the MCX, gold prices rose by 4.1 percent last week to close at Rs.25982 per 10 gms. A wave of risk aversion due to growth worries in China and rising tensions in the Middle East triggered demand for the metal, despite the stronger U.S. dollar. A 7 percent slide in China stocks on Monday sparked by weak economic data rekindled worries over global growth and sent European and U.S. stocks diving. Amid a weakening global trend and profit-booking by speculators, gold futures traded lower by Rs 127 at Rs 25,973 per 10 gram . Gold for delivery in February contract eased Rs 127, or 0.49% to Rs 25,973 per 10 gram in a business turnover of 423 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in far-month April was trading down Rs 127, or 0.48% to Rs 26,100 per 10 gram in 3 lots. Analysts said the fall in gold futures was mostly in tune with a weak trend overseas where the precious metal pared its best weekly advance since August as global markets rallied after China reassured investors by refraining from a further cut in its exchange rate, halting an equity slump that had seen US shares post their worst ever four-day start to the year. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 0.50% to $1,103.53 an ounce in Singapore. Prices are up 4% this week. Gold climbed above $1,100 an ounce for the first time in nine weeks on Thursday as the dollar fell and investors channeled money into safer assets for a fourth straight day after worries about the Chinese economy hit global stocks. Shares on major exchanges fell for a sixth consecutive day while crude oil prices bounced back from multiyear lows as volatile markets digested another move lower in the yuan and China's efforts to stabilize its sinking stock market. "Gold's strength is probably going to be relatively short term, but there is an upside risk to gold, if the view that China is going to pull the whole world into recession becomes stronger," Citigroup metals strategist David Wilson said. "But if the U.S. and Europe continue to grow, gold will go weaker ... Chinese stock markets had got
massively over inflated because a lot of money piled into it and now people have come back to reality."Spot gold rose to a nine-week high of $1,109.94 an ounce at one stage and was up 1.3% at $1,108.45 an ounce at 2:03 p.m. EST (1903 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled up 1.5 percent at $1,107.80 an ounce. Taking weak cues from overseas markets, silver prices dropped by Rs 285 to Rs 34,246 per kg in futures trade .as participants cut down their bets. Moreover, profit-booking at prevailing levels by speculators weighed on silver prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in March was trading lower by Rs 285, or 0.83%, to Rs 34,246 per kg, in a business turnover of 808 lots. Similarly, the white metal for delivery in far-month May declined by Rs 262, or 0.75%, to Rs 34,649 per kg, in a business volume of 15 lots. In the international market, silver fell 0.66% to $14.21 an ounce in Singapore today. Traders said the fall in silver prices at futures trade was largely in tandem with a weak trend in precious metals in global markets profit-booking by speculators.
� ENERGY On the MCX, oil prices declined by 10 percent to close at Rs.2244 per barrel Global oil benchmark Brent and U.S. crude futures fell to nearly $32 a barrel on Thursday, their lowest since at least 2004, after another free fall in the Chinese stock market rattled investors already concerned by the world glut in oil. U.S. government data on Wednesday showed a 10.6 million-barrel surge in gasoline supplies, the biggest weekly build since 1993, rattling investors already concerned by near-record production and massive stockpiles around the world. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran collapsed in acrimony last week after the Kingdom's execution of a Shi'ite cleric set off a storm of protests in Tehran. The Indian basket of crude oils dived sharply to the $30 a barrel mark as sweet grade UK Brent prices fell on Thursday's trade to levels last seen in 2004, pulled down this time by a falling Chinese currency and a second emergency halt in China's stock trading this week that spooked Asian markets. The Indian basket, composed of 73% sour grade Dubai and Oman crudes and the rest by Brent, closed at $31.33 per barrel of 159 litres on Wednesday, falling from $32.51 on the previous trading day The US crude output increased unexpectedly last week to 9.219 million barrels a day according to the US Energy Information Agency. Adding to investors' worries was the lack of signs that US shale oil producers would start to cut production in face of the plunging prices. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery moved down $2 to settle at $33.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since December 2008. Brent crude for February delivery decreased $2.19 to close at $34.23 a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange, the lowest close since June 2004. China further depreciated the yuan on Thursday, leading to regional currencies and stock markets tumbling as investors feared China's moves could trigger competitive currency devaluations from trading partners. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index declined by 7.32 %, which led to a halt in trading, as the circuit breaker mechanism was triggered. Commodity prices, too, plunged as the economy of the world's largest consumer struggled. China's service activity grew at a slower pace in December, fuelling worries about a slowdown in the world's second biggest oil consuming economy. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met here on Tuesday with global oil and gas experts to discuss ways of boosting investments in the exploration and skill development at a time of low oil prices. Among the foreign invitees to the meeting were British oil major BP's chief executive Bob Dudley, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol, and Royal Dutch Shell's director (Projects) Harry Brekelmans.The discussions focused, among other things, on subjects such as increasing the share of gas in India's energy mix, fresh investment in oil and gas exploration in India, regulatory frameworks, international acquisition of oil and gas assets, the Prime Minister's Office said.
✍ COPPER LME Copper prices plunged by 4.7 percent last week to close at $4485 per tonne as the People's Bank of China set the Yuan’s official midpoint rate at its weakest level in four and a half years, signaling that the economy is weaker than expected. China’s stock market tumbled by 7 percent and trading was halted for the second day this week as devaluation in the yuan raised further questions about the Chinese economy and increased concerns over capital flight. Further, Copper production in Peru, the world's third-largest supplier, surged 37 percent in November. The country is poised to become the world's second-biggest copper producer this year. Also, data showed the country's forex reserves dropped by nearly $108 billion in December, the biggest decline on record bringing total holdings to $3.3 trillion, lowest level in three years. Besides, State Reserve Bureau, which is in charge of building the country’s strategic reserves of commodities is likely to buy up to 150,000 tonnes of copper to support falling prices Extending its slide, copper futures fell by another 0.84% to Rs 313.25 per kg today as speculators engaged in cutting down their bets after China lowered the yuan against the dollar amid subdued demand at the domestic spot markets. Copper for delivery in far-month April fell by Rs 2.65, or 0.84% to Rs 313.25 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange in a business turnover of 20 lots. The metal for delivery in February shed Rs 2.50, or 0.80%, to Rs 308.60 per kg in a business volume of 1,695 lots. Analysts said a weakening trend in base metals overseas after China devalued its currency against the dollar amid worries over slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy, which have roiled investors worldwide, and with pressure on its currency from capital outflows, put pressure on copper futures here. China's central bank lowered its currency yuan by 0.51% to 6.5646 per dollar, the lowest since March 2011. Globally, copper for delivery in three months was trading 0.6% lower at London Metal Exchange.
✍ NICKEL Buoyed by rising demand from alloy-makers in domestic spot markets, nickel futures traded a shade higher at Rs 569.30 per kg as speculators widened their positions even as base metals weakened overseas. In restricted movements, nickel for delivery in February moved up by 70 paise, or 0.12%, to Rs 569.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 38 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in current month traded higher by 50 paise, or 0.09%, to Rs 563.40 per kg in 605 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in nickel prices to enlarging of exposure by speculators, driven by rising demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, but the metal's weakness at the London Metal Exchange (LME) limited the gains.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Crop insurance scheme in 2016-17 India will launch its first major crop damage insurance scheme for farmers in the fiscal year starting April 1, the Agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said on Friday, in what could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first significant move to address the distress plaguing the country's agricultural sector. The impact of unseasonal rains and two straight years of drought on agriculture that sustains over two-thirds of India's 1.25 billion people has dented Modi's
popularity in the countryside, contributing to a humiliating loss for the premier in elections last year in the largely rural state of Bihar. India will launch a new farm crop insurance scheme in 2016 and use drones and other technologies to assess crop damage.
✍ CHANA Chana prices closed higher 0.31 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,870 per quintal, up by 0.31 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,845 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,855. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,890. Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices. As per data release by Agriculture Ministry on Jan1, Chana planted 81.08 lakh tonnes (lt) so far, compared with 79.95 lt last year. Recently, Government has offloaded over 1.12 lakh tonnes of pulses, seized from hoarders, in the retail market to improve availability and tame prices Income tax department raided traders dealing in pulses, especially chana (chickpea), in Delhi and Mumbai on Tuesday to check the irregularities in importing. The acreage under chana reported higher in Maharashtra (12.72 lh Vs 9.6 lh), Andhra Pradesh (3.32 lh Vs 2.67 lh) and Karnataka compared to last year’s acreage but slightly lower in Rajasthan (12.35 lh Vs 12.56 lh) and MP as per data released by respective state agriculture department. India has imported 3.07 lt of Chana until September in the current financial year.
✍ MUSTARD SEED Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.52 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,242 per quintal, up by 0.52 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,201 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,220. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,268. The prices of mustard have been witnessing a downward trend even as the harvesting of the new crop will begin by the end of February and go on till May. The spot prices have been fluctuating between Rs 4,400 a quintal and Rs 4,500 a quintal. In Rajas-than, the largest grower of mustard, prices have been varying in the range of Rs 4,000 to Rs 4,300 per quintal. The arrivals, which normally are around 1,000 tonne a day, had come down to about 125 tonne on January 8. Despite the high quality of oil and meal and also its wide adaptability for varied agroclimatic conditions, the area, production and yield of mustard in India have been fluctuating due to various biotic and abiotic stresses coupled with the domestic price support scheme.
✍ REFINED SOYA OIL Amid muted demand in the spot markets, refined soya oil prices dropped by 0.59% to Rs 602.65 per 10 kg in futures market on Wednesday as participants trimmed positions.Moreover, adequate stocks position too weighed on refined soya oil prices.At the National Commodity
and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in far-month February declined by Rs 3.60, or 0.59%, to Rs 602.65 per 10 kg, with an open interest of 98,460 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in January shed Rs 3.15, or 0.52%, to Rs 606.70 per 10 kg in 58,350 lots.The fall in refined soya oil futures to tepid demand at the spot market against adequate stocks on higher supplies from producing belts. Disparity in prices and continuous high prices in the domestic market has thrown Indian oilmeals almost out of the international market. The latest data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) revealed that export of soyameal has touched a record low at 61,556 tonnes in the first nine months of 2015-16 – down 86 per cent from 4,44,736 tonnes in the same period last year. The soyameal exports had touched a peak of 20,10,788 tonnes in 2013-14. The sharp decline in the exports is attributed to non-competitive price of the domestic oilmeals. The export of soyameal during the month of December 2015 stood at 5,667 tonnes (1,94,012 tonnes) showing a steep fall of 97 per cent over the same period last year. In a separate compilation by The Soyabean Processors Association of India, India’s total exports during the current oil year, (October-September 2015-16), only 18,814 tonnes has been exported as against 3,34,508 tonnes last year, showing a decrease of 94.37 per cent. Due to higher prices, Indian soyameal remained noncompetitive in the international markets.
✍ JEERA Tracking a weak trend at the spot markets on sluggish demand, jeera prices declined by 1% to Rs 13,870 per quintal in futures trading on Wednesday as speculators lightened their positions.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in January fell by Rs 140, or 1% to Rs 13,870 per quintal with an open interest of 4998 lots.Likewise, the spice for delivery in far-month March traded lower by Rs 105, or 0.73% to Rs 14,190 per quintal in 5,043 lots.Offloading of positions by participants, driven by sluggish demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks on higher supplies from producing regions, led to the fall in jeera prices at the futures trade. According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16 (AprSep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year same period. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15. According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend compared to last year until September. Jeera exports from India are likely to decline by about 40-45 per cent to around 85,000-1,00,000 tonnes during 2015-16 compared to an estimated exports of around 1.55 lt last year. As per final estimate of Gujarat State for 201415, production is pegged at 1.97 lt higher by about 24.7 % forecasted in its fourth advance estimate of 1.58 lt. Last years’ production was 3.46 lt, down 43 %. Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin until Jan 05, 2016 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat, jeera is planted about 7% more area at 2,83,000 hectares compared to 2,64,400 hectares last year same time. As per Agmarknet data, arrivals of Jeera in Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 till Oct is lower by 217 per cent at about 1.23 lt compared to 3.9 lt last year
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