Commodity research report 12 may 2015 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 JUN 2015

617

610

604

601

597

595

591

584

578

SYBEANIDR

19 JUN 2015

4657

4554

4451

4387

4348

4284

4245

4142

4039

RMSEED

20 MAY 2015

4156

4085

4014

3977

3943

3906

3872

3801

3730

20 MAY 2015 20423 19463

18503

17886

17543 16926 26583 15623

14663

CHANA

20 MAY 2015

4968

4819

4670

4614

4521

4465

4372

4223

4074

CASTORSEED

20 MAY 2015

3852

3800

3748

3714

3696

3662

3644

3592

3540

JEERAUNJHA

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 JUN 2015

653

634

615

607

596

588

577

558

539

SYBEANIDR

19 JUN 2015

5070

4812

1554

4439

4296

4181

4038

3780

3522

RMSEED

20 MAY 2015

4359

4217

4075

4008

3933

3866

3791

3649

3507

20 MAY 2015 20423 19463

18503

17886

17543 16926 26583 15623

14663

CHANA

20 MAY 2015

5558

5200

4842

4700

4484

4342

4126

3768

3410

CASTORSEED

20 MAY 2015

4211

4046

3881

3780

3716

3615

3551

3385

3221

JEERAUNJHA


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

29 MAY 2015 128

125

122

120

119

117

116

113

110

30 JUN 2015

428

421

417

414

410

407

400

393

18 MAY 2015 4103 3996

3889

3842

3782

3735

3675

3568

3461

GOLD

05 JUN 2015

27101

26995

26908

26802

26715

26522

26329

LEAD

29 MAY 2015 144

140

135

133

131

128

127

123

118

NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 209

199

190

186

180

177

171

162

152

954

933

923

912

902

891

870

849

38436

38193

37906

37663

37376

36846

36316

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

435

2748 27294 7

NICKEL

29 MAY 2015 975

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 3949 38966 6


✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 MAY 2015

141

134

128

123

121

116

114

107

100

COPPER

30 JUN 2015

444

434

424

419

415

409

405

395

386

18 MAY 2015 4633

4367

4101

3948

3835

3682

3569

3303

3037

GOLD

05 JUN 2015 27911 27569

27227

27058

26885

26716

26543

26201

25859

LEAD

29 MAY 2015 158

149

141

135

132

127

124

116

107

210

200

190

187

180

177

170

160

150

NICKEL

29 MAY 2015 1083

1024

965

939

906

880

847

788

729

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 42092 40612

39132

38540

37652

37061

36172

34692

33212

CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015

✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ China April HSBC PMI China's factories suffered their fastest drop in activity in a year in April as new orders shrank, a private business survey showed on Monday, hardening the case for fresh policy stimulus to halt a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in April - the lowest level since April 2014 - from 49.6 in March, as demand faltered and deflationary pressures persisted. The number was weaker than a preliminary reading of 49.2, and below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction compared with the previous month. The overall new orders sub-index dipped to 48.7 in April, the sharpest contraction in a year, although new export orders


showed tentative signs of improvement. Both input and output prices declined for a ninth month in April, while manufacturing employment contracted for an 18th month, auguring poorly for an economy that grew at its weakest rate for six years in the first quarter. ✍ UK election Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party are tied at 34 percent popular support ahead of Britain's general election on Thursday, according to a YouGov opinion poll for the Sun newspaper published on Wednesday. The results showed both the Conservatives and Labour unchanged from Tuesday's poll numbers, YouGov said. The election is expected to be the tightest in decades. The two main parties have been neck and neck in most polls since the start of the year, with neither establishing a sustained lead exceeding the three-point margin of error. Opinion polls have consistently shown that neither of the two main parties is likely to win an overall majority in the 650-seat Parliament. ✍ China's imports & exports China's exports unexpectedly fell 6.4 percent in April from a year earlier, while imports tumbled by a deeper-than-forecast 16.2 percent, fueling expectations that Beijing will quickly roll out more stimulus to avert a sharper economic slowdown. April imports tumbled 16.2 percent from a year earlier, following a 12.7 percent drop in March that highlighted tepid domestic demand as the world's second-largest economy slows. That left the country with a trade surplus of USD 34.13 billion for the month, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected exports to rise 2.4 percent in April from a year earlier, and predicted imports would fall 12 percent. "This is bad. I expect an interest rate cut this weekend," said economist Tim Condon at ING in Singapore.

✍ BULLION ✍ GOLD Gold imports surged 19.5 percent to reach USD 34.32 billion in 2014-15 due to declining prices and easing of restrictions by the Reserve Bank. Imports of the metal were USD 28.7 billion the previous fiscal, 2013-14. Increase in gold imports impacts the country's trade deficit, which has


reached USD 137 billion in 2014-15, and the current account deficit (CAD). The imports almost doubled in March to USD 4.98 billion which pushed the trade deficit to a four-month high of USD 11.79 billion for the month, according to the Commerce Ministry data. India is the largest importer of gold, which mainly caters to the demand of the jewellery industry.

The Reserve Bank and the government have maintained that the CAD level is comfortable, but the spike in gold imports may spark fresh worries. It has narrowed to 1.7 percent for the first nine months of the previous fiscal. According to the Reserve Bank data, in the April-December period of last fiscal, CAD stood at USD 31.1 billion or 2.3 percent of GDP. On November 28, RBI had scrapped the controversial 80:20 scheme. Under the programme, which was put in place in August 2013 to put a tight leash on gold inflows, at least 20 percent of the imported gold had to be exported before bringing in new lots. Taking cues from overseas markets, gold futures prices today fell 0.22 percent to Rs 27,120 per 10 grammes as speculators offloaded their positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold prices for delivery in far-month August shed Rs 59, or 0.22 percent , to Rs 27,120 per 10 gm in business turnover of seven lots. Also, metal prices for delivery in June declined by Rs 54, or 0.20 percent , to Rs 26,880 per ten gm in 292 lots. Analysts said the fall in gold futures was attributed to trimming of positions by speculators, tracking with trend overseas after data on US jobless claims showed an improving labour market ahead of the release of non-farm payroll figures for April, boosting speculation that interest rates will rise this year. Meanwhile, gold traded at USD 1,183.29 an ounce in Singapore from USD 1,184.51 yesterday. � BASE METAL � COPPER Copper prices swung between small gains and losses on Thursday, as traders monitored the direction of the dollar while awaiting key U.S. employment data for further clues on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery shed 0.2 cents, or 0.07%, to trade at $2.924 a pound during European morning hours. Futures held in a range between $2.905 and $2.934. A day earlier, copper dipped 0.9 cents, or 0.31%, to close at $2.926. On Tuesday, futures rallied to $2.956, the highest level since November 28. Futures were likely


to find support at $2.892, the low from May 4, and resistance at $2.956, the high from May 5. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 94.20, not far from the two-month trough of 93.96 set on Wednesday.

✍ LEAD Lead futures rose 0.78 per cent to Rs 136.45 per kg today on rising demand in spot markets and positive global cues. Besides strong demand from battery-makers, a firm trend in copper and other base metals overseas influenced lead prices at futures trade. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the April 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 136.45 per kg, up by 0.78 per cent, after opening at Rs 134.85, against a previous close of Rs 135.40. Sentiment improved further due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME lead stocks fell by 1325 metric tonnes to 173450 metric tonnes as on May 5, 2015.

✍ ZINC Zinc prices rose by 1 per cent to Rs 151.65 per kg in futures trade today due to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 2475 metric tonnes to 468500 metric tonnes as on May 5, 2015. Zinc futures for April 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 151.65 per kg, up by 1 per cent after opening at Rs. 149.95 against the previous closing price of Rs. 150.15. Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany. ✍NICKEL Nickel futures soared in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal as services activity accelerated in China and the US, two of the world’s biggest metals consumers, while growth estimate in the Euro area for 2015 was upwardly revised to 1.5 per cent from 1.3 per cent, lifting the demand outlook for the base metal. The China services gauge rose to 52.9 in April from 52.3 in March, with a reading above 50 signaling expansion, while the ISM Services PMI climbed to 57.8 in April from 56.5 in March. At the MCX, Nickel futures for May 2015 contract is trading at Rs 927.50 per 1 kg, up by 2.24 per cent after opening at Rs 909.7, against the previous closing price of Rs 907.20.


✍ ENERGY ✍ CRUDE OIL Crude oil futures surged by Rs 66 to Rs 3,923 per barrel on Wednesday as speculators engaged in creating positions amid a firm trend overseas. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in May shot up by Rs 66, or 1.71 percent , to Rs 3,923 per barrel, with a business turnover of 3,292 lots. The oil for delivery in June also climbed by Rs 62 or 1.57 percent to Rs 4,010 per barrel in a turnover of 250 lots. Analysts said the rise in crude oil futures was largely in tandem with a firming trend in Asian trade on signs the US supply glut is easing. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude prices for June delivery rose USD 1.29 to USD 61.69, while Brent crude for June was up USD 1.01 or 1.5 percent at USD 68.53 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. ✍ NATURAL GAS Natural gas futures ended higher on Monday in the domestic and overseas market as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the energy commodity as speculation of warmer than unusual weather in mid-May lifted the demand for the fuel from gas-fired power plants. The Global Forecast System said that it expects “well-above normal temperatures” in the US Midwest and Northeast into early next week. At the MCX, Natural Gas futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs 179.10 per 1 kg, up by 0.28 per cent after opening at Rs 176.6, against the previous closing price of Rs 178.6.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Chana up 4%, hits upper limit on lower output concerns Chana prices surged by Rs 168, or 4 per cent, hit upper circuit at Rs 4,372 per quintal in futures trade on tuesday as participants enlarged speculative positions, driven by lower output concerns due to unseasonal rains in key growing belts. Pick-up in demand in the spot market supported the up trend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in May reached Rs 168, or 4 per cent to Rs 4,372 per quintal with an open interest of 89,740 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in June traded higher by Rs 170, or 3.99 per cent to Rs 4,435 per quintal in 99,070 lots. ✍ Refined soya oil down 0.3% on low spot demand


Refined soya oil prices eased 0.26 per cent to Rs 600.90 per 10 kg in futures trade on Wednesday as speculators trimmed positions due to subdued demand in spot market against adequate stocks. At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in June declined Rs 1.55, or 0.26 per cent, to Rs 600.90 per 10 kg with an open interest of 1,00,250 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in August contracts fell 25 paise, or 0.04 per cent, to Rs 593.40 per 10 kg in 1,58,265 lots. Off-loading of positions by speculators amid fall in demand in spot market against adequate stock position mainly influenced refined soya oil prices at futures trade. ✍ Castorseed futures gain on rising demand Castorseed futures gained on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX)after speculators enlarged positions following rising demand from consuming industries, including paint, soap and lubricant. Further, pick-up in export demand also supported castorseed prices’ uptrend. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for May 2015 contract were trading at Rs. 3,725 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.27 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,708 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,715. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,705 till the trading. Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46 per cent oil recovery.

✍ Jeera ends lower on demand woes Jeera prices closed lower by 2.82 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs. 17,395 per quintal, down by 2.82 per cent, after opening at Rs. 17,750 against the previous closing price of Rs. 17,900. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 17,815. Global output of Jeera is around 2.2 lakh MT per year, of which India produces about 1.5 lakh MT per year. India exports Jeera mainly to the US, UK, UAE, Japan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Singapore and many other countries. Other Major exporters are Syria and Turkey.


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