Commodity research report 14 march 2016 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 MAR 2016

108.60

107.60

106.60

105.60

104.60

103.50

102.50

101.50

100.50

COPPER

29 APR 2016

346

344

342

340

338

336

334

332

330

CRUDE OIL

18 MAR 2016

2650

2630

2615

2600

2585

2565

2550

2535

2520

GOLD

05 APR2016

29800

29700

29600

29500

29400

29300

29200

29100

29000

LEAD

31 MAR 2016

129

128

127

126

125

124

123

122

121

NATURAL GAS

28 MAR 2016

127

126

125

124

123

122

121

120

119

NICKEL

31 MAR 2016

617

612

607

602

595

590

585

580

575

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

37800

37700

37600

37500

37400

37300

37200

37100

37000

ZINC

31 MAR 2016

125

124

123

122

121

120

119

118

117

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 MAR 2016

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

COPPER

29 APR 2016

350

347

344

341

338

336

333

330

327

CRUDE OIL

18 MAR 2016

2690

2660

2630

2600

2570

2540

2510

2480

2450

GOLD

05 APR2016

30200

30000

29800

29600

29400

29300

29100

28900

28700

LEAD

31 MAR 2016

132

130

128

126

124

122

120

118

116

NATURAL GAS

28 MAR 2016

130

128

126

124

122

120

118

116

114

NICKEL

31 MAR 2016

645

633

623

613

603

593

583

573

560

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

38600

38300

38000

37700

37400

37100

36800

36500

36200

ZINC

31 MAR 2016

128

126

124

122

120

118

116

114

112 Monday, 14 March 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL GOLD APR BELOW 29370 TGT 29080 SL 29653

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY CRUDEOIL MAR ABOVE 2450 TGT 2550 SL 2348 - TGT ACHIVED. SELL LEAD MAR BELOW 122.50 TGT 120 SL 124.50 - SL

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29 MAR 2016 67.90 67.80

67.70

67.60

67.50

67.40

67.30

67.20

67.10

GBPINR

29 MAR 2016 96.10

96

95.90

95.80

95.70

95.60

95.50

95.40

95.30

EURINR

29 MAR 2016 74.10

74

73.90

73.80

73.70

73.60

73.50

73.40

73.30

JPYINR

29 MAR 2016 59.85 59.75

59.65

59.55

59.40

59.30

59.20

59.10

59

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

USDINR

29 MAR 2016 68.4 68.20 0

68

67.80

67.60

67.40

67.20

67

66.80

GBPINR

29 MAR 2016 96.7 96.50 0

96.20

96

95.80

95.60

95.40

95.20

95

EURINR

29 MAR 2016 74.6 74.40 0

74.20

74

73.80

73.60

73.40

73.20

73

JPYINR

29 MAR 2016 60.2 0

59.80

59.60

59.40

59.20

59

58.80

58.60

60

WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY JPYINR MAR ABOVE 59.65 TGT 60.30 SL 59 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY USDINR MAR ABOVE 67.70 TGT 68.30 SL 67 - CLOSED AT 67.27 BUY EURINR MAR ABOVE 74 TGT 75 SL 73 - TGT ACHIVED.


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

627

622

617

615

612

610

607

602

597

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016

3835

3785

3735

3714

3685

3664

3635

3585

3535

RMSEED

20 APR 20165

4163

4098

4033

4009

3968

3944

3903

3838

3773

JEERAUNJHA

18 MAR 2016

15865 15575 15285

15095

14995 14805 14705 14415

14125

CHANA

20 APR 2016

4641

4562

4483

4447

4404

4368

4325

4246

4167

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

638

629

620

616

611

607

602

593

584

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016

4132

3983

3834

3763

3685

3614

3536

3387

3238

20 APR 2016 4368

4226

4084

4035

3942

3893

3800

3658

3516

18 MAR 2016 17815 16800 15788 15346 14775 14330 13755 12745

11725

20 APR 2016 4958

3770

RMSEED JEERAUNJHA CHANA

4760

4562

4486

4364

4288

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL REFSOYA APR BELOW 618 TGT 611 SL 626 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL BUY CHANA APR ABOVE 4260 TGT 4350 SL 4150 - TGT ACHIVED. BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 6700 TGT 6900 SL 6480 - TGT ACHIVED.

4166

3968


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Bullion Gold prices approached near 13 months high in the early morning trade today after rallying 1.22% in yesterday’s trade at COMEX. The prices recovered their intra day losses yesterday after the Euro recovered sharply against the dollar post the comments from the ECB president that there might not be any further rate cuts. Earlier it lowered deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.4 percent and expanding its asset purchasing programme to 80 billion Euros per month to avoid another recession. The programme will run until at least March 2017. The US dollar index tumbled to a month’s low of 95.94 overnight. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings rose to 25.68 million ounces on Thursday, the highest since August 2014. Investors continued to remain bearish on gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as they pulled out around Rs 800 crore from the instrument during the first 11 months of the current fiscal. As things stand now, FY16 will mark the third consecutive financial year of outflow from gold ETFs. The pace of outflow, however, slowed down in 2015-16 as against the preceding two years on account of sluggish equity market, experts said.Gold ETFs witnessed a net outflow of Rs 798 crore in the first 11 months (April-February) of the ongoing fiscal compared to an outflow of Rs 1,364 crore during the same period of 2014-15 fiscal. These funds witnessed outflow of Rs 1,475 crore in entire 2014-15 and a withdrawal of Rs 2,293 crore in 2013-14. However, the asset base of gold funds marginally increased to Rs 6,672 crore in February 2016 from Rs 6,665 crore at the end of March 2015. The mutual fund sector has 14 gold-based schemes, which have been in the market since 2006-07. The demand for gold ETFs has been steadily falling in the past few years. These products have seen outflow as gold prices are correcting and equities have given good returns to investors. Retail investors have been putting in more money into equity and debt mutual funds during April-February. Equity and equity-linked saving schemes saw an infusion of Rs 75,394 crore and debt funds attracted about Rs 20,000 crore. Overall, mutual fund schemes have witnessed an inflow of Rs 2.07 lakh crore during the period under review.

In 2016, the allure for the yellow metal as an asset class is back, as spot gold prices in the international markets have risen 18 per cent and comex gold has increased 18.5 per cent. On the MCX, gold prices have gone up 18.7 per cent. Spot gold prices (Ahmadabad) have also gained 18 per cent in the same time frame. Fall in global equities, inflows into bullion funds, weak dollar index and concerns over financial instability have been important factors for the recent rise. Besides, the metal has been helped by speculation that the Federal Reserve might not raise US interest rates this year, after the first rate hike in nearly a decade in December 2015. Since the beginning of 2016, gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust have already surpassed the whole of 2015. In absolute numbers, gold holdings as on March 7, stood at 793 tonnes, an increase of 151 tonnes compared to December 31, 2015. Besides, Barrick Gold Corporation, the world's largest gold producer, has also cut its 2016 total gold production forecast, boosting prices. Although most of the Federal Open Market Committee policymakers are still expected to raise rates this year and even discussed a hike at the January 26-27 policy meeting, they were divided over how to interpret financial market volatility. The next meeting scheduled on March 15-16 will be closely watched by investors across the globe, as it will provide clues on further rate hikes.


Amid a weakening trend overseas, silver prices fell Rs 297 to Rs 37,130 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets. Silver for delivery in May was trading lower by Rs 297, or 0.79 %, to Rs 37,130 per kg in a business turnover of 650 lots in futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).On similar lines, the white metal for delivery in far-month July was down by Rs 262, or 0.69 %, at Rs 37,613 per kg with a business turnover of 11 lots. In the international market, silver traded 0.62 % lower at $15.23 an ounce in Singapore. Market analysts said, a weak trend in precious metals in global markets as the dollar gained ahead of a key European Central Bank meeting this week eroding demand for the precious metal, kept pressure on silver futures here.

�Energy Crude oil prices showed a decline from their highest levels attained this year as the anticipations for 20th March meeting is fading away. With third straight weekly decline in gasoline stocks, signal for some improved demand at the time of summer driving season has suppported crude prices. Recently, gasoline prices hit their multi year low levels in the US region as the demand was too low along with lower crude oil prices. As per recent updates, gasoline now is just 58 cents less compared to last year’s average. Apart from this, the shale production in USA was flat last week. US crude oil production is now standing at 9.10 mbpd compared to 9.60 mbpd levels in mid 2015. Natural Gas futures jumped 3 per cent in the domestic market on Friday tracking a bullish trend overseas amid speculation that lower prices of the fuel which has witnessed a bearish ride off late, may encourage lower production and boost demand. US natural gas rig count fell to a record low last week, down by 3 to 94, signaling lower production ahead. However, supply levels remain more than adequate with total US natural gas storage 36.8 per cent higher than levels at this time a year ago and 29.4 per cent above the five-year average for this time of year. At the MCX, Natural Gas futures for March 2016 contract closed at Rs 123.3 per mmBtu, up by 3 per cent, after opening at Rs 120.4, against the previous closing price of Rs 119.7. It touched an intra-day high of Rs 124.4.

�Metal Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 0.9 percent at $4,890, while three-month aluminium was down 1.5 percent at $1,559 a tonne, zinc slipped 1.8 percent to $1,765, lead fell 1.5 percent to $1,818, tin lost 1.0 percent to $16,625 and nickel ceded 1.4 percent to $8,755 as the demand concerns resurfaced and Chinese equities sagged. The global refined copper market is expected to remain "essentially balanced" in 2016 compared with a previous forecast in October for a 175,000 tonne surplus, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said on Thursday, despite which the metal is all set to end the week on a negative note after four weeks of positive closing. Nickel futures traded over 2% lower at Rs 614.80 per kg today as participants reduced their exposure amid a weak trend overseas and muted demand at the domestic spot markets. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in March fell Rs 12.70, or 2.02%, to Rs 614.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 1,686 lots.Also, metal for delivery in April was trading Rs 12.50, or 1.97% lower at Rs 620.60 per kg in 73 lots. Globally, nickel dropped 3.6% at the London Metal Exchange (LME), after gains Monday pushed it to its highest level since November. Market analysts said besides subdued spot demand from alloy-makers at the domestic market, a weak trend in the entire base metals pack at the LME after Goldman Sachs Group reiterated its view that the structural drivers for last year's slump in


prices remain intact, weighed on nickel futures prices here. Zinc futures rose by 1.09 per cent to Rs 120.35 per kg today due to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 2000 metric tonnes to 462250 metric tonnes as on March 11, 2016. Zinc futures for March 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 120.35 per kg, up by 1.09 per cent after opening at Rs. 119.85 against the previous closing price of Rs. 119.05. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 120.60 till the trading. (At 4.20 PM today). Sentiment improved further as speculators increased positions in the midst of a strong trend globally. Besides, high demand in domestic spot markets fueled the uptrend. Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany.

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � Union Budget 2016 Increased allocation for price stabilization fund in the budget 2016-17 will help to check prices of essential commodities, especially of pulses. The ministry of consumer affairs has already prepared an action plan for this purpose. More than 50,000 MT pulses have been procured from the farmers by various Government AGENCIES at the market prices and decision to import 20,000 MT pulses has been taken. Total buffer stock of 1.50 lakh MT pulses is being created and import of 6000 MT pulses has already been ordered. These efforts will certainly help to keep prices under check, he asserted. Besides increase in price stabilization fund from Rs. 500 crore to Rs. 900 crore in the budget, the government has also allocated Rs. 500 crore to promote pulses production during current fiscal year. The operation of the fund has also been transferred to the Department of Consumer Affairs from Ministry of Agriculture for better coordination and timely action. Regarding implementation of Food Security Act, by next month, the Act will be rolled out in all the states expect Tamil Nadu. The process of demystifying the Budget began some years ago, when the government would introduce new duties or revise rates whenever the need arose. Take steel. Delhi first announced a 20 per cent safeguard duty on hot-rolled coil in mid-September and then, much to the industry's relief, introduced in February minimum import prices of $341 and $752 a tonne on 173 products.Why should the government wait for the Budget when the debilitating impact of import surges on domestic steel makers was already in evidence? The US administration's response to steel imports from China and Russia, with dollops of subsidy proving hurtful to local industry, is found to be much faster and effective than of either India or the European Union.

The government agencies will procure one lakh tonnes of pulses ,including masoor and gram in the coming days.Already the agencies have procured 51,000 tonnes of kharif pulses for the buffer stock against the target of 50,000 tonnes said a press statement released by the Consumer Affairs department.Reviewing a meeting on price and availability of essential commodities,C Viswanath, secretary of department of consumer affairs was informed that import of 8,500 tonnes pulses order was on the way.Officials from the Agriculture ministry informed that area under production of oil seeds during 2015-16 has increased 2.1% and mustard production is expected to be higher by 6 lakh tonnes over the previous year.


The meeting also reviewed production of tomato in the country and its price trends. Tomato production is also expected to be higher by 11.6% during 2015-16. Efforts are being made to increase its cultivation in nontraditional areas by using advanced hybrid varieties said the press statement.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices are witnessed bullish trend during the last day. Jeera futures were trading up by 1.1% at the NCDEX on account of rise in demand in the physical market, due to the availability of dry crop in the spot market. Spot market witnessed a higher trading during Thursday, with total arrivals of 38000 bags in Unjha market. The prices at Unjha market reported at around Rs. 2000 per 20 Kg. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 206 tonnes as on 09 Mar 2016.Jeera prices closed lower by 1.95 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for March 2016 contract closed at Rs. 14,870 per quintal, down by 1.95 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,050 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,165. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 14,870.

✍ Soybean At Bundi market , Soybean Plant is trading strong at Rs. 3625-3650 per quintal, up by 1.39 per cent from previous trading day.Soybean Mandi is offered firm at Rs. 3600-3625 per quintal, up by 2.11 per cent as against previous day. Arrivals were reported at 200 Bags, higher by 100 Bags as compared to previous day.Soybean Plant at Baran market is quoted high at Rs. 3525-3725 per quintal, higher by 2.05 per cent from previous day.Soybean Mandi at Baran market is offered strong at Rs. 3300-3600 per quintal, higher by 2.86 per cent from previous day's price level. Today's arrivals are at 800 Bags, lower by 200 Bags from previous day's arrivals.Soybean Plant at Bhawani market is trading strong at Rs. 3650-3720 per quintal, up by 1.92 per cent as compared to previous day.Soybean Mandi at Bhawani market is quoted strong at Rs. 3550-3670 per quintal, up by 1.94 per cent as against previous day. Total arrivals are at 800 Bags, lower by 200 Bags as compared to previous day.

✍ Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.87 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 3,986 per quintal, up by 1.87 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,927 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,913. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 3,992.

✍ Chana Chana prices closed higher 0.55 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,411 per quintal, up by 0.55 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,387 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,387. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,440. During Thursday’s trading session NCDEX Chana April opened positive and traded within a range during first half of the session but during second half it resumed uptrend and closed positive only.


NCDEX Chana April futures ended the day at Rs 4387 per quintal which is 1.6% up against the previous day. According to report, due to high prices Australian farmers are encouraging to grow more plant for chickpeas this year. In major pulses growing area heavy rain is expected during next week, which may create problem for the rabi harvest. Government agencies have kept buffer stocks of 51 thousand tonnes of pulses and have planned 1 lakh tonnes of pulses to be stocked in rabi marketing season. Export of all pulses is banned except kabuli channa and up to 10,000 MTs in organic pulses and lentils Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices.


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