Commodity Research Report 14 September 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

111

110

109

108

107

106

105

103

102

30 NOV 2015 378

373

368

366

363

361

358

353

348

CRUDE OIL

21 SEP 2015 3305 3203

3101

3054

2999

2952

2897

2795

2693

GOLD

05 OCT 2015 2692 26621 1

26321

26142

26021

25842

25721

25421

25121

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

122

119

116

114

113

111

110

107

104

NATURAL GAS

25 SEP 2015

191

187

183

181

179

177

175

171

167

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

722

710

698

691

686

679

674

662

650

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 3796 36981 5

35997

35475

35013

34491

34029

33045

32061

122

121

120

119

118

116

115

ALUMINIUM COPPER

ZINC

30 SEP 2015

30 SEP 2015 125

124

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 SEP 2015

118

115

111

110

108

106

104

101

97

COPPER

30 NOV 2015

420

400

380

372

360

352

340

320

300

CRUDE OIL

21 SEP 2015 212015

3529

3355

3181

3094

3007

2920

28336

2659

2485

GOLD

05 OCT 2015 28577 27570

26863

26413

26156

15706

25449

24742

24035

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

127

122

117

115

112

110

107

102

97

NATURAL GAS

25 SEP 2015

194

189

184

181

179

176

174

169

164

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

835

782

729

707

76

654

623

570

517

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 39468 38033

36598

35775

35163

34340

33728

32293

30858

125

123

120

117

115

110

105

ZINC

30 SEP 2015

135

130

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

577

573

569

567

565

563

561

557

553

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3304

3271

3238

3219

3205

3186

3172

3139

3106

RMSEED

20 OCT 2015

4384

4360

4336

4324

4312

4300

4288

4264

4240

JEERAUNJHA

20 OCT 2015

16885 16665

16445

16310

16225 16090 16005 15785

15565

CHANA

20 OCT 2015

49233

4807

4691

4623

4575

4507

4459

4343

4227

CASTORSEED

20 OCT 2015

4409

4348

4287

4251

4226

4191

4165

4104

4043

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

608

594

580

572

566

558

552

538

524

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3737

3564

3391

3296

3218

3123

3045

2872

2699

RMSEED

20 OCT 2015

4647

4538

4429

4371

4320

4262

4211

4108

3993

JEERAUNJHA

20 OCT 2015

19058 18173

17288

16731

16403 15864 15518 14633

CHANA

20 OCT 2015

6380

5827

5274

4915

4721

1362

4168

3615

3062

CASTORSEED

20 OCT 2015

4957

4726

4489

4353

4255

4119

4021

3787

3553

113748

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS

✍ GOLD The government is gearing up to launch the gold monetization scheme around Diwali with an interest rate of 1.5-2% on gold deposits.As regards the sovereign gold bond scheme, the government aims to raise Rs 15,000 crore and the timing of the launch will be decided in consultations with the Reserve Bank.

The interest rate on gold bonds, the official said, is expected to be 2-3%.The Cabinet had yesterday approved the gold monetization and the bond schemes, which were earlier announced in the Budget with an aim to curb demand for physical gold and fish out idle gold lying with temples, trusts and households.Sovereign gold bonds will be offered in tranches and the interest would be payable in the rupee.The proposal to classify gold deposits as CRR and SLR has been rejected by RBI and hence, it has been withdrawn from the final plan of the scheme.

✍ Silver Silver prices were up Rs 180 at Rs 36,580 per kg in futures trading on Wednesday as speculators widened positions amid a firming trend overseas.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in far-month March next year rose by Rs 180, or 0.49%, to Rs 36,580 per kg in a business turnover of four lots.On similar lines, white metal for delivery in December was trading higher by Rs 170, or 0.48%, at Rs 35,833 per kg with a business volume of 599 lots.Speculators widened positions, tracking a firming trend overseas as the dollar fell, raising appeal of precious metals.In Singapore, silver climbed 0.5% to $14.87 an ounce today.

✍ Nickel Amid profit-booking by speculators and weak trend overseas, nickel prices were down by 0.25% to Rs 666.30 per kg in futures trade on Thursday.In addition, a weak trend in metals at the spot market owing to slack demand from consuming industries put pressure on metal prices.At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month was trading down by Rs 1.70, or 0.25%, at Rs 666.30 per kg in a business volume of 304 lots.Metal for delivery in October too fell Rs 1.50, or 0.22% to Rs 673.50 per kg, in a business volume of 22 lots.Profit-booking by speculators at prevailing levels and reports of a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after data showed factory prices slumping in China.Producer prices in China extended a decline to 42 months, underlining sluggish manufacturing in the world's biggest metals consumer.

� Lead Taking positive cues from the global market and rising demand in the domestic spot market, lead futures prices on wednesday rose 0.75% to Rs 114.40 per kg as speculators built up positions.

Lead for delivery in October contracts edged higher by 85 paise, or 0.75%, to Rs 114.40 per kg, with a turnover of six lots while delivery in current month contracts was up 80 paise, or 0.71%, to Rs 113.35 per kg in a turnover of 493 lots.Rise was mostly supported by rising demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot market and firming trend in industrial metals at the London Metal Exchange.

� Copper Amid subdued domestic demand, copper prices fell by 0.35% to Rs 355.900 per kg in futures trade on tuesday as traders reduced positions.Fall in copper futures to a weak trend at the domestic spot markets due to low demand and weak global cues after trade data showed export and imports contracting.China's exports fell 6.1% year-on-year to 1.20 trillion yuan (around $188 billion) in August, Customs said, the latest batch of data showing weakness in the world's second-largest economy.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month February next year fell Rs 1.25 or 0.35% to Rs 355.90 per kg in business turnover of eight lots.The metal for delivery in November shed Rs 1.10 or 0.31% to trade at Rs 350.25 per kg in a turnover of 428 lots.Globally, for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange, copper traded little changed at $5,148 per tonne.

� Crude Oil Oil prices eased in Asia today as dealers focused on an upcoming US energy report for clues about production and demand in the world's top crude consumer amid abundant global supplies.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for October delivery fell 65 cents to $43.50 while Brent crude for October dropped 76 cents to $46.82 in late-morning trade.The Department of Energy (DoE) will release its weekly report , a day later than usual because of Monday's Labor Day holiday.Analysts expect commercial crude-oil inventories rose 250,000 barrels in the week to September 4.

At the same time, the DoE yesterday predicted in a new report that US crude-oil production would decline through the middle of next year in response to low prices, before picking up again in late 2016 on an expected recovery in prices.US crude output fell 140,000 barrels per day in August from July. The government lowered its 2015 production estimate to 9.2 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels lower than its month-ago forecast.Even so, total US output this year is expected to be the highest since 1972.Investors are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates as bank policymakers hold a meeting next week, with speculation they could announce a rise.A hike in borrowing rates would likely push up the dollar, and with crude priced in the greenback it would make the commodity more expensive for anyone holding weaker currencies, denting demand.

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Global agri-commodities prices fell sharply to hit seven-year low in August due to ample supplies, a slump in energy prices and concerns over economic slowdown in China.

Measured by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the food price index averaged 155.7 points in August 2015, down 5.2% from July, the steepest monthly drop since December 2008, with virtually all major food commodities registering marked dips.

The trade-weighted FAO Food Price Index tracks international market prices for five major food commodity groups: cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar.

Triggered by a bumper output in 2015, global cereal price index averaged 154.9 points in August, down 7% from July and 15.1% from last year - a decline driven by falling wheat and maize prices that reversed two consecutive months of modest increases. Continued improvements in production prospects for 2015-16 were largely behind the cereal price slides.

FAO estimates global cereal production in 2015 at 2,540 million tonnes, 13.8 million tonnes more than expected in July, but still 21 million tonnes (0.8%) below the 2014 record. The upward revision resulted from more buoyant production prospects for coarse grains, wheat and rice across the world.

Unfavorable weather condition in the winter harvesting season lowered yield in India.

Consequently, India's overall cereal output is estimated to be lower by 1.8% at 234.1 million tonnes in 2015, the second year of consecutive decline, from 243.2 million tonnes and 2,38.4 million tonnes in 2013 and 2014 respectively. India's 2015 wheat crop is estimated to decline by 5% (5 million tonnes) from the 2014 record due to crop damage caused by heavy rains, strong winds and hail.

Despite concerns about the possible incidence of planting delays, India's overall rice output is expected to remain higher at 103.5 million tonnes, 0.9% more than the disappointing figure of last year.

But, India's overall export of foodgrains is estimated to be lower due to a tightening of supplies and growing domestic requirements. FAO estimates India's rice shipment to be lower by 20% in 2015.

Meanwhile, the vegetable oil price index averaged 134.9 points in August, down 8.6% from July, and its lowest level since March 2009. The fall primarily reflected a six-and-a-half year low in international palm oil prices, mainly the result of slowing import demand, notably by India and China, amid expectations of rising production.

Also, a substantial drop in prices for milk powders, cheese and butter pushed the August dairy price index down by 9.1% to 135.5 points, with much of the weakness attributed to softening import demand from China, the Near East and North Africa.

A sharp fall in the sugar price index - down 10% from July to an average of 163.2 points in

August - was largely the result of the continued depreciation of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar and firmer expectations that India, the world's second largest sugar producer, will become a net exporter in the current 2015-16 season.

The state government has directed release of canal water and sufficient power for farmers to save the rain-deficient kharif crop by irrigation. The council of ministers reviewed the situation on Wednesday. Rajora declined to comment on the status of crop and damage so far. “A survey would reveal the situation,” he said.

Shahdol, Satna, Sidhi, Rewa, Katni, Anuppur, Ratlam, Harda, Mandsaur, Badwani and Neemuch districts have had below normal rain. Some others such as Bhopal, Mandsaur and Harda have had the normal amount but no rainfall for the past week to three weeks.Of the 12.6 million hectares, 3-3.5 mn might fall “under stress”, say department sources.

Soya had earlier estimated a good crop this season, though there was a prolonged dry spell during July. Soya was sown on an estimated 11.4 mn ha this season across the country. Last year, it was 11.1 mn ha and production was 9.96 mn tonnes.The soya industry is already facing low import duty and an increase in imports of soya oil. Similarly, soyameal exports have declined by 42% in August to 91,834 tonne against 1,56,942 tonne of oilmeal. Soyameal is used as animal feed in various countries.

✍ Monsoon deficiency Agriculture commodities have become dearer by up to 11.5 per cent in the last two weeks on confirmation by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a 12 per cent monsoon rainfall deficit this year.The July-August period, which normally receives 65 per cent of the season’s rainfall, has received 16-24 per cent lower rain than the long period average.

“Updated analysis of the most critical atmospheric and oceanic variables for the monsoon predicts a final seasonal monsoon rainfall value 12 per cent below normal. The updated outlook all but guarantees the monsoon will end up more than 10 per cent below normal. At these levels, production of both rabi and kharif crops can suffer,” said Adam Turchioe, weather research analyst at Thomson Reuters GFMS.“Agriculture commodity prices have firmed up in the last few weeks due to the monsoon’s unsatisfactory progress. Rainfall was 22 per cent deficient in August, after the 16 per cent deficit in July. Agriculture commodity prices are likely to continue to remain firm,” said Naveen Mathur, associate director for commodities and currencies at Angel Broking.

Castor seed for September delivery is at Rs 4,140 a quintal and at Rs 4,324 three months later on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). Turmeric for September delivery is at Rs 8,144 a quintal and at Rs 9,932 for April 2016 delivery.“Traders have started taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunity in inter-commodity contracts, which has raised the trading volume in far-month contracts significantly,” said Mathur.Despite deficient monsoon rain, the kharif acreage was 2 per cent higher at 99.9 million hectares on September 4,

2015, compared with 97.9 million hectares a year ago.“Prices of agriculture commodities have started moving up and the probability of a further increase remains high with production already depressed by a poor monsoon last year,� said Gaurang Kakkad, an analyst with Religare Institutional Research.Barring cotton and jute, acreage under all summer sown crops was higher. But the higher acreage is projected to yield lower output on weak germination and plant development.

Chana prices plunged 1.24 per cent to Rs 4,958 per quintal in futures market today as participants reduced exposure amid ample supplies from producing belts at the spot market against easing demand.At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in September dropped by Rs 62, or 1.24 per cent, to Rs 4,958 per quintal with an open interest of 8,350 lots.

The October contract moved down by Rs 56, or 1.11 per cent, to Rs 5,000 per quintal in 1,57,710 lots.Analysts said offloading of positions by speculators amid higher supplies from producing regions against decline in demand at spot market at prevailing levels pulled down chana prices in futures trade.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.

All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices.

Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment.

Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.