Commodity Research Report 16 November 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 NOV 2015 102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

94

COPPER

30 NOV 2015 325

323

321

319

317

315

313

311

309

CRUDE OIL

19 NOV 2015 2760 2740

2720

2700

2680

2660

2640

2620

2600

GOLD

04 DEC 2015 2570 25700 2015 0

25600

25550

25500

25450

25400

25350

25300

LEAD

30 NOV 2015 110. 109.30 30

108.30

107.30

106.30

105.30

104.30

103.30

102.30

162

160

158

156

154

152

150

148

642

637

632

627

622

617

612

607

NATURAL GAS 24 NOV 2015 164 NICKEL

30 NOV 2015 647

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 3440 34300 0

34200

34100

34000 33900

39800

33700

33600

ZINC

30 NOV 2015 110. 109.50 50

108.50

107.50

106.50

105.50

104.50

103.50

102.50

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 NOV 2015

105

103

101

99

97

95

93

91

89

COPPER

30 NOV 2015

330

326

323

320

317

315

312

309

306

19 NOV 2015 2810

2780

2750

2720

2680

2650

2620

2590

2560

GOLD

04 DEC 2015 25900 25800

25700

25600

25500

25400

25300

25200

25100

LEAD

30 NOV 2015 113.40 111.40

109.40

107.40

105.20 103.70

101.20

100

98.70

CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS 24 NOV 2015

168

165

162

159

157

154

151

148

145

663

653

643

633

623

613

603

593

583

33800

33600

33400

33200

101.50 100.50

98.70

NICKEL

30 NOV 2015

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 34800 34600

34400

34200

34000

ZINC

30 NOV 2015 113.50 111.50

109.50

107.50

105.50 103.50

WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25500 TGT 25200 SL 25803

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25650 TGT 25400 SL 25931 TGT ACHEIVED

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

66.70

66.50

66.30

66.10

65.90

65.70

65.50

101

100.80

100.60

100.40

100.20

100

USDINR

26 NOV 2015 67.1 66.90 0

GBPINR

26 NOV 2015 101.

101.4 101.20 60 0

EURINR

26 NOV 2015 71.9 71.70 0

71.50

71.30

71

70.80

70.60

70.40

70.20

JPYINR

26 NOV 2015 54.7 54.55 0

54.40

54.25

54.10

53.95

53.80

53.55

53.40

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

67.50

67

66.60

66

65.70

65

64.40

63.90

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

USDINR

26 NOV 2015

68

GBPINR

26 NOV 2015 102.

50

102

101.50

101.10

100.80

100.40

100

99.30

98.80

EURINR

26 NOV 2015

72.40

72

71.40

71

70.70

70.20

69.80

69.30

JPYINR

26 NOV 2015 55.4 0

55

54.70

54.40

54

53.70

53.40

53

52.70

73

WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL JPYINR NOV BELOW 53.90 TGT 53.40 SL 54.40

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY USDINR NOV ABOVE 66.75 TGT 67.25 SL 66.20 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015

608

606

604

602

600

599

597

595

592

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015

3960

3940

3920

3900

3880

3860

3840

3820

3800

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015

4900

4880

4860

4840

4820

4800

4780

4760

4740

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015

15580 15480

15380

15280

15180 15080 14980 14880

14750

CHANA

18 DEC 2015

4010

4980

4960

4940

4920

4900

4880

4860

4840

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015

4360

4340

4320

4300

4280

4260

4240

4220

4200

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015

613

610

607

604

601 598

595

592

589

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015

4010

3970

3940

3910

3880

3850

3820

3790

3760

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015

4930

4900

4870

4840

4810

4780

4750

4720

4690

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015

15900 15700

15500

15300

15100 15900 15700 15500

15300

CHANA

18 DEC 2015

4050

4010

3980

3960

3930

3900

3870

3840

3810

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015

4400

4370

4340

4310

4280

4250

4220

4190

4160

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL DHANIYA DEC BELOW 9700 TGT 9500 SL 9903

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL RM SEED DEC BELOW 4890 TGT 4780 SL 5061 - TGT ACHEIVED.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � PRECIOUS METAL

1. U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in October amid a surprise decline in automobile purchases, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending that could temper expectations of a strong pickup in fourth-quarter economic growth. The Commerce Department said retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in both September and August.

Economists had forecast sales increasing 0.3 percent.

2.

Multiple attacks in Paris on Friday killed more than 130 people, prompting France to launch air strikes in Syria against Islamic State, which claimed responsibility for the attacks.

3.

University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 93.1 in early November from a reading of 90.0 in October.

4.

Data on Friday showed a second straight monthly decline in producer prices as the cost of services fell. Still, the soft inflation and signs of slowing consumer spending are unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next month, economists said.

BULLION Indian Gold and Silver prices slumped on Thursday, trading weak overseas prices. December Gold futures prices ended a very choppy U.S. trading session lower and hit a fresh contract low Thursday. December Silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit another 10-week low on Thursday, The Dollar remained higher against the other major currencies on Thursday, still hovering close to a seven-month peak after data showed that U.S. jobless claims held steady at a two-month high last week, but remained in territory consistent with a strengthening labor market.

However, the Dollar trimmed gains after Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave no indications on the nearterm outlook for the U.S. economy or monetary policy in a speech on Thursday. She added that The U.S. Federal Reserve must weigh the effects of post-crisis financial regulations and new channels through which policy affects markets as it prepares to raise interest rates. Yellen said the U.S. central bank also must weigh the disadvantages of its policy actions in light of new tools meant to help the Fed raise rates. Fed "policymakers should be mindful of new channels for monetary policy transmission that may have emerged from the

intricate economic and financial linkages in our global economy that were revealed by the crisis," she said in prepared remarks.  The Euro weakened against the Dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the central bank "will re-examine the degree of monetary policy accommodation" at its December meeting. Speaking to the European Parliament, Draghi said inflation dynamics had somewhat weakened and that a "sustained normalization" of inflation could take longer to achieve than thought. The World Gold Council has reported demand for gold in the third quarter rose by 8% worldwide. The report added that demand in China soared by 70%, while demand in India rose 6% in the quarter. China and India are the two largest gold importers in the world.

SPDR Gold Trust fund said its holdings fell 0.22% to 661.94 MT on Thursday from 663.43 MT on Wednesday. In terms of ounces, holdings fell to 21,282,135.35 ounces from 21,329,996.1 ounces. Holdings Silver Trust have remained unchanged on Wednesday from Tuesday. COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total MT in Trust: 159.85 MT: -0.45 MT change from yesterday’s data. Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 9,756.57 MT: No change from yesterday’s data. 

COPPER Copper prices slid to a six-year low on Friday as worries about economic and demand growth in top consumer China escalated and abundant supplies reinforced expectations of surpluses.

Some producers have cut output and others are planning to cut, but analysts say more will be needed before participants start to believe that a more balanced market is in sight. Data this week showed China's industrial output was at a seven month low in October and investment expanded at its weakest pace since 2000. However, one thing that could trigger another attempt at the downside is a higher U.S. currency, which makes dollar denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms. Expectations of higher U.S. interest rates after the Federal Reserve's Dec. 15-16 meeting are growing, keeping the dollar strong and adding to pressure on commodity prices.

ENERGY Natural gas futures gained over 4 percent on Friday on colder weather forecasts expected to boost heating demand over the next two weeks and a slightly smaller-than-projected storage build. Despite Friday's gain, the front-month ended down for the first week in three. Traders have warned for weeks that futures were vulnerable to a short covering rally if the weather suddenly turned colder because speculators could quickly exit big bearish bets. Over the past several weeks, hedge funds have built up net short positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest levels in at least five years as they bet prices - recently at a three-year low - had further to fall. Traders said prices for the rest of the winter and all of 2016 were depressed as storage levels were at all-time highs, producers continue to pump record amounts of gas out of the ground, and forecasts call for weaker-than-normal heating demand this winter due to warmer-than normal weather expected from the El Nino weather pattern.

Crude Oil slumped again on Friday, extending the week's loss to the largest in eight months, as swelling storage of crude on both land and sea pressured prices.

Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down 1 percent and less than $2 from a new 6-1/2-year low. U.S. crude fell 2 percent, barely holding above $40 a barrel. Both benchmarks lost 8 percent on the week, the most since mid-March. Oil prices have fallen in seven of the last eight sessions, with losses accelerating after U.S. government data on Thursday affirmed a seventh weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories that took stockpiles near April's record highs.

Adding more pressure to prices, data on Friday showed the first rise in the U.S. oil rig count in 11 weeks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said there was a record 3 billion barrels of crude and oil products in tanks worldwide. An estimated oversupply of 0.7 million to 2.5 million barrels per day has pushed crude prices down by almost two-thirds since June 2014.

Tens of millions of barrels are sitting on tankers at sea, looking for buyers. The IEA said a mild winter could further swell the global glut.

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CORIANDER Coriander futures traded lower due to reports of sluggish demand in major spot markets. As well, likely higher acreage in the major producing states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh and concern over the poor quality of the stocks at the exchange warehouses pull down the prices. Also, there are reports that India’s coriander imports are likely to remain high, with the country set to import 2000 tonnes from Bulgaria and Ukraine in November. The import deals are likely to have been sealed at $800 per tn, which is equivalent to 5200-5300 rupees per 100 kg on a warehouse-delivery basis, the source said. A similar quantity had been contracted for import in September and October too. Import deals during Sep-Oct were at 4000 tn and prices were contracted at $850-900 per tn, the source said. In 2014-15, (Apr-Mar) India's coriander imports were pegged at 9750 tn, while the number was 4640 tn in the preceding year, data from Spices Board of India showed. India’s total coriander output in 2014-15 is now seen at 344000 tonnes, up from 314000 tonnes estimated earlier, the farm ministry said in its third estimate.

CHILI Prices of chilli are set to rise as the dry weather in India may lead to a sharp drop in crop yields, as per market source. Chilli crop in Andhra Pradesh are dependent on canal water for irrigation, but with the sharp fall in reservoir levels following scanty rains, the government is in no position to release the water. Acreage under chilli in Andhra Pradesh is 123,717 ha in the current year, as against 106,674 ha last year, according to the state agriculture department.

Added, chilli output for 2015-16 is estimated to be 15-17% higher from last year's 1.0-1.2 mln tn. Expectation of a rise in chilli exports, as seen over the last five years, may also push prices higher. The significant rise in exports is mainly because of bad crop in China. If the crop in

China is poor this year as well, India stands to benefit from incremental demand from China, and other Asian countries that earlier imported chilli from China.

SOYABEAN AND SOYAOIL Indian Oilseed complex prices ended lower on weak overseas prices amid strong arrivals.

Rupee ended higher on Wednesday. According to COOIT, India’s Soybean 2015 output is at 7.2 million MT, 15% lower from previous year India's Soy meal exports in October were 4237 MT vs. 26,690 MT in October 2014 and 6886 MT in Sep 2015. Total oil meal exports in Oct 2015 were 13,716 MT vs. 238,703 MT in Oct 2014 and 139,649 MT in Sep 2015. India’s veg oil imports in September were 1.20 million MT vs. 1.36 million MT in August and 1.01 million MT in Sep 2014. In Nov- Sep period, India imported 12.77 million MT of veg oils vs. 10.38 million MT in the corresponding period during previous year. According to 1st Advance estimates for 2015-16 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.83 million MT. USDA estimates India 2015-16 output at 9.5 million MT vs. 9.0 million MT in the previous year.

CBOT Soy complex prices ended mixed yesterday. Supplies of new Soy crop from US and sowing progress in Brazil are negative forces. However, robust demand from China is a positive force. China imported 5.53 million MT of Soybeans in October, down 23.8% from 7.26 million MT in September. Imports of vegetable oils in October were 480,000 MT, down 31.4% from the previous month. USDA data showed US Soybeans harvest was 92% complete vs. 87% a week ago. According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 3 November, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. ICE Canola prices closed firm yesterday.

JEERA Jeera futures traded weak as demand remained sluggish due to the absence of premium quality in the physical market. Thin trade in the spot market due to Diwali also weighed on prices.

Jeera market in Unjha will remain closed during the week on account of Diwali. The government has raised its estimate for jeera output to 599000 tonnes for 2014-15 (Jul-Jun) from the previous projection of 514000 tonnes, the farm ministry said in its third estimate for horticulture crops. According to the latest report from Spices Board of India, jeera exports during Apr-Jun declined sharply, by 45 percent on year to 27000 tonnes, compared with 49000 tonnes last year. Jeera is the second largest exported spice. Higher prices compared to past couple of years may create positive outlook among farmers to sow more of the spice for the 2015-16 season, which may cause bearish sentiment, restraining prices from trading higher.

TURMERIC The NCDEX turmeric futures started the week on a positive note extending its previous gains tracking bullish fundamental factors  The active Dec contract futures hit a fresh contract high

on Monday at Rs. 9590 per quintal Subdued trading was witnessed in the spot market ahead of Diwali Concerns over crop production due to unfavorably weather condition had been supporting the turmeric futures to trade on a positive note . However, towards end of the day, prices paired morning gains and ended the day slightly on a positive note .

Turmeric futures may trade higher due to reports of limited arrivals and good demand for the spice in major spot markets. The prospects of rise in demand from overseas market and low output estimates may too limit the fall in price. The government has cut its estimate for turmeric output to 852000 tonnes for 2014-15 (Jul-Jun) from the previous projection of 1.19 million tonnes. According to latest report from Spices Board of India, shipments of turmeric during Apr-Jun increased 8 percent to 24500 tonnes. Telangana, the major turmeric producing state was lagging the year ago sowing level due to deficient rainfall. Turmeric acreage in Telangana was at 40823 ha as on 07th Oct 2015, compared with 43470 ha a year ago, according to latest data from the state's agriculture department. The normal area for turmeric as on date in the state is 49691 ha. As per trade source, turmeric area in Andhra Pradesh has recently risen to around 11700 ha from the year ago level of 10300 ha, but the yield there still remains a concern. Conversely, there are reports that Erode is likely to compensate for the declines in other areas due to good irrigation facilities in the district. Another dampener for the bulls would be abuzz of ample carryover stocks.

CARDAMOM Cardamom futures traded with negative bias due to higher arrivals in major spot markets.

Staggered delivery period for November contract commenced on Monday. The contract will expire on Nov 13. Total arrivals of cardamom for the auction on Thursday were around 52 tonnes with the spot price on an average quoted as Rs.604 per kg. The maximum price was Rs.900 per kg. The country's cardamom output estimate for 2014-15 has been raised to 22000 tonnes from 21000 tonnes seen earlier, the farm ministry said in its third estimate for horticulture crops. As per the latest report from Spices Board of India, shipments of small cardamom rose 128 percent on year in Apr-Jun to 975 tonnes and export of large cardamom increased 24 percent compared with previous year to 65 tonnes. Also, there were media reports that export of cardamom from Guatemala increased 15 percent during Sep-June, compared to previous same period

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