Commodity research report 16 october 2017 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-OCT-2017

142.00

141.00

140.00

139.00

138.00

137.00

136.00

135.00

134.00

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

466.00

462.00

458.00

454.00

448.30

444.0

440.00

436.00

432.00

3523

3473

3423

3373

3323

3273

3223

3173

3123

CRUDE OIL

18-OCT-2017

GOLD

05-DEC--2017

30200

30100

29999

29915

29813

29713

29613

29513

29413

LEAD

31-OCT-2017

168.40

167.40

166.40

165.40

164.40

163.40

162.40

161.40

160.40

NATURAL GAS

26-OCT-2017

202.00

200.00

198.00

196.90

195.40

193.40

191.40

189.40

187.40

NICKEL

31-OCT-2017

778

771

764

757

750.10

743

735

728

721

SILVER

05-DEC--2017

41000

40850

40700

40500

40367

40100

39900

39700

39500

ZINC

31-OCT-2017

217.80

216.00

215.00

214.00

212.80

211.80

210.80

209.80

208.80

Tuesday 17 October 2017


✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-OCT-2017

146.00

144.00

142.00

140.00

138.00

136.00

134.00

132.00

130.00

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

485.00

474.00

466.00

458.00

448.30

440.00

432.00

423.00

414.00

3723

3623

3523

3423

3323

3223

3123

3023

2923

CRUDE OIL

18-OCT-2017

GOLD

05-DEC--2017

30600

30400

30200

29999

29813

29613

29413

29210

29013

LEAD

31-OCT-2017

172.40

170.40

168.40

166.40

164.40

162.40

160.40

158.40

156.40

NATURAL GAS

26-OCT-2017

206.00

204.00

202.00

198.00

195.40

191.40

187.40

185.40

183.40

NICKEL

31-OCT-2017

799

786

778

764

750.10

735

721

711

701

SILVER

05-DEC--2017

41600

41300

41000

40700

40367

39900

39500

39200

38900

ZINC

31-OCT-2017

222.00

220.00

217.80

215.00

212.80

210.80

208.80

206.80

204.80


✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-OCT-17

65.90

65.60

65.30

65.10

64.90

64.60

64.30

64.00

63.70

EURINR

27-OCT-17

77.90

77.70

77.50

77.00

76.50

76.25

76.00

75.75

75.50

GBPINR

27-OCT-17

88.30

87.80

87.30

86.80

86.30

85.80

85.30

84.80

84.30

JPYINR

27-OCT-17

58.54

58.44

58.34

58.24

58.14

58.04

57.94

57.84

57.74

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-OCT-17

66.90

66.30

65.90

65.30

64.90

64.30

63.70

63.30

62.70

EURINR

27-OCT-17

78.90

78.50

77.90

77.50

76.50

76.00

75.50

75.00

74.50

GBPINR

27-OCT-17

90.30

89.30

88.30

87.30

86.30

85.30

84.30

83.30

82.30

JPYINR

27-OCT-17

58.95

58.70

58.54

58.34

58.14

57.94

57.74

57.50

57.20


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS  The euro is on track for its biggest weekly rise in a month as investors put political concerns on the back-burner and look ahead to a European Central Bank meeting at which it is expected to outline plans to unwind its huge stimulus programme.  The U.S. dollar held steady near two-week lows against other major counterparts on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a highly-anticipated U.S. inflation report due later in the day.  Crude oil prices rallied on Friday, supported by news in the previous session of a third weekly decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and amid global signs the market is tightening. 

Gold prices moved higher on Friday, as sentiment on the greenback remained vulnerable ahead of

highlyanticipated data on U.S. inflation due later in the day. Comex gold futures were up $2.55 or about 0.20% at $1,299.05 a troy ounce by 03:15 a.m. ET (07:15 GMT), just off a two-and-a-half week high of $1,300.73 hit overnight. 

President Donald Trump will lay out a more confrontational strategy toward Iran by the United

States on Friday in a speech in which he is likely to strike a blow at an international Iran nuclear deal, complicating U.S. relations with European allies. 

U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest increase in 2-1/2 years in September likely as

reconstruction and clean-up efforts in areas devastated by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma boosted demand for building materials and motor vehicles.   Retail sales rose in September, pointing to a strong economy, official data showed on Friday. In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales rose 1.6% from the prior month, barely missing forecasts for a gain of 1.7%. Retail sales in August fell 0.1%, which was revised from a negative 0.2%.


� BULLION Gold prices rose as minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve September meeting showed policymakers had a prolonged debate about prospects of a pick-up in inflation and slowing the path of future interest rate rises if it did not. Weak dollar index and geopolitical tensions in Spain and North Korea further supported the rally in gold. Russia and China both called for restraint on North Korea following a Twitter post from U.S. President Donald Trump hinting that military action was on his mind. The focus of the markets have now shifted from the geo-political crisis to the economic data that will be released from the US, besides, the possibility of rate hike scenario in the US is a factor for gold prices to move lower in the week ahead. Precious metals continued to gain after monthly consumer inflation numbers from US disappointed a bit and led to a rally in bullions. However, the gains were limited in domestic markets considering the fall in US dollar prices against INR. Bullions prices have closed positive for second straight week while long positions have been reduced by large hedgers and professional money which suggests that immediate upside could be limited. Also, the current leg of rally seems to have extended enough that correction on the downside is expected to hit both the commodities. However, there is clear reversal in prices marked in Silver and it might continue to move compared to Gold. Gold could mark reversal in prices with break above 1314$ in spot. If prices extend above 1314$, the current rally which looks like a corrective structure now will change into an impulsive one and major rally will witnessed any time soon. Strong Indian demand outlook in the upcoming Diwali season is offering decent buying for Gold. The metal is holding up even as US stocks hit record highs. A rather tepid reading on the US inflation front also boosted Gold. The US Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.5% in September after rising by 0.4% in August.


The increase in consumer prices was largely due to a jump in energy prices, which soared by 6.1% in September after rising by 2.8% in August. However, excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1% in September after edging up by 0.2% in August. COMEX Gold broke above $1300 per ounce levels while the MCX Gold edged up well above Rs 29800 per 10 gram levels. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to raise rates so long as the medium-term economic outlook remains unchanged, according to the minutes of its latest meeting. The Fed noted that recent hurricanes had not disrupted that outlook and it expects slower growth for a few months, but does not expect a long-term effect. Some Fed policy members expressed concerns about inflation running below its 2% annual target, while others worried that waiting for inflation to normalize policy could lead to an overheated market. In India, Jewellery purchases exceeding Rs 50,000 will not require the PAN number to be provided after the government reversed an earlier notification on last Friday. Jewellers will also not be required to inform authorities about jewellery purchases of over Rs 50,000 after the government rescinded a notification issued on August 23. This is keeping sentiments firm in local retail markets.

� BASE METAL LME Copper prices gained momentum last week week and surged by more than 3 percent as global investors chose to react to news of selective monetary easing in China once Chinese markets returned from week long holiday. People's Bank of China's had announced on Sept. 30 that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for some banks that meet certain requirements for lending to small business and the agricultural sectors. Demand prospects brightened further after the International Monetary Fund raised Chinese economic growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 to 6.8 percent and 6.5 percent respectively, both 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous forecast in July. Besides, persistent decline in LME stocks has already pulled the inventories lower by 5 percent so far in October.


COMEX Copper futures have come off their one month high around $3.5 per pound this week though supportive equities and upbeat global economic data are keeping the losses limited. MCX Copper futures hit highs above Rs 451 per kg levels. BHP, Biliton,one of the world's largest copper miners, decided last year to raise its annual exploration spending by 29%, allocating nearly all its $900 million budget to finding new copper and oil deposits. The mining giant is committed to make of those two commodities the pillars of its future growth. Analysts believe the red metal is well placed to benefit from the increasing development of battery-powered vehicles, as they use more copper than regular cars. Internationally, Chilean state copper miner Codelco kicked off a tender process for a $1.2 billion plant and has since indicated it has received several expressions of interest. It's estimated the Spence project will generate 5,000 jobs during its construction phase, and add about 185,000 tonnes of copper a year to BHP's output over the first decade of the expanded operation, with first production expected in 2021. BHP, already the world's second-biggest listed copper miner, decided last year to raise its annual exploration spending by 29%, allocating nearly all its $900 million budget to finding new copper and oil deposits. The mining giant is committed to make of those two commodities the pillars of its future growth. Analysts believe the red metal is well placed to benefit from the increasing development of battery-powered vehicles, as they use more copper than regular cars. Currently, electric cars add up to roughly 1 million, out of a global fleet of closer to 1.1 billion. But BHP believes that figure could rise to 140 million electric vehicles, or 8% of the global fleet, by 2035 Nickel has enough room for the upside as the commodity was highly oversold in the past and is now reviving from multi-year lows. This revival in prices is now catching fire and prices are expected to cross yearly highs of 816.5 in near term. The other metals except Aluminium have the potential to move another 4-5% higher from current levels. The stronger fundamentals are now topping out with extreme economic numbers from China are now deteriorating. Also, another thing which is keeping the rally alive in metals is the strong bias in global equity markets which has created the environment of bullishness in the assets of risk.


✍ ENERGY WTI and Brent oil prices declined by around 4.4 percent and 1 percent respectively last week while, MCX oil prices trades higher by 2.2 percent in the same time frame. OPEC forecast higher demand for 2018 and heightened tensions in Kurdistan supported prices. On the other side, U.S. oil exports are pouring into the market at a record pace, but the world's second largest crude trader Glencore said the market can absorb the volumes along with those from the North Sea and West Africa. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is seeking to hold a second meeting with U.S. independent oil firms as well as hedge funds, OPEC's Secretary General said, that no oil producer could afford to live in isolation. WTI Crude oil hit two week highs above $51 per barrel as falling US crude inventories boosted sentiments. Broad demand side remains bullish too. EIA reported a 2.8-million-barrel draw in US crude oil inventories for the week to October 6th yesterday. Record high US equities also kept the outlook firm for the commodity. MCX Crude oil futures closed above Rs 3300 per barrel mark. Oil has managed to edge up after testing its three week low. Oil cartel OPEC said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report that it had revised upwards its 2017 oil demand growth forecast by 30,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd, which also helped to boost prices despite the cartel also reporting an increase in its September oil production to 32.75 million barrels – 25,000 bpd above the quota OEPC agreed to last November. Crude Oil recovered back after stronger than expected inventories draws. Prices have made a habit to react lately to the inventories number released by EIA and reacting inversely immediately after the inventory number and it has been happening from past 2-3 months. The shorter term fundamentals for the commodity are improving with supply disruptions in many parts of the world. This is the second straight week where operational oil rigs have reduced by 5. This has come at a time when prices are trading near the upper range of past few years. With heavy reduction in short positions from large hedgers in the last week’s COT report suggests that larger players are now convinced that prices might be moving higher. Technically speaking, we now have a resistance near 54$ with rising channel resistance along with wave C which started from 45.5$ is expected to equate wave A which completed at 50.4$.


The OPEC Reference Basket rose to $53.44/b in September, its highest value since July 2015. Crude futures prices also saw gains, with ICE Brent averaging above the $55/b, supported by increasing evidence that the oil market is heading toward rebalancing. Geopolitical tensions and lower distillates stocks also pushed prices higher. ICE Brent averaged $55.51/b in September, a gain of $3.64, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.82 to average $49.88/b. Hedge funds raised net long position in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures and options by almost 200,000 contracts.


MCX TECHNICAL VIEW � GOLD Last week, Gold prices opened higher with gap and thereafter prices consolidated for the whole week in the range of 29700-29900 levels. Prices have bounced after taking strong support at its declining trend line breakout level which previously acted as a strong resistance. Prices have made a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and gave a positive close in the last week, which is suggesting further rally towards next strong resistances placed around 30200 and 30500 levels. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 29600 and 29250 levels. Buying in minor pullbacks is recommended for the short term trading opportunities.


� CRUDEOIL In the last week, Crude Oil prices opened flat and prices rose strongly for first half of the week till high of 3360. Later prices consolidated in a narrow range and settled around 3310 level. Prices have bounced after taking strong support around its previous swing high of 3234 level and formed a higher top higher bottom chart pattern. Prices have also formed a potential inverse head and shoulder chart pattern, which is also a bullish signal for the commodity. Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards immediate resistance placed around its recent multiple swing highs near 3480 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 3270 and 3200 levels.


âœ? NICKEL Nickel prices opened higher with gap in the last week and prices rose strongly for the whole week till high of 757.40 level. Prices have rallied strongly in the last two weeks after taking strong support at 50% Fibonacci retracement of its previous rally from low of 558.60 till high of 786, which is placed around 672.30 level.  Prices are expected to continue this rally from these levels towards next strong resistance placed around its recent high of 786 level and further around its previous high of 816.50 level.On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 735 and 708 levels. Buying in minor pullbacks is recommended for the short term trading opportunities.


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV 2017

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV 2017

3141

RMSEED

20-NOV 2017

JEERAUNJHA

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

671.00

670.00

669.00

668.00

667.00

666.00

665.00

3091

3041

2991

2941.00

2891

2841

2791

2741

4013

3963

3913

3863

3813

3763

3713

3663

3613

20-NOV 2017

19600

19400

19200

19095

18970

18800

18600

18400

18200

GUARSEED10

20-NOV 2017

3994

3944

3894

3844

3794

3744

3694

3644

3594

TMC

20-NOV 2017

7854

7754

7654

7554

7454

7354

7254

7154

7054

673.00 672.00

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-NOV 2017

677.00

675.00

673.00

671.00

669.00

667.00

665.00

663.00

661.00

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV 2017

3341

3241

3141

3041

2941.00

2841

2741

2641

2541

RMSEED

20-NOV 2017

4213

4113

4013

3913

3813

3713

3613

3513

3413

JEERAUNJHA

20-NOV 2017

20200

20000

19600

19200

18970

18600

18200

17800

17400

GUARSEED10

20-NOV 2017

4194

4094

3994

3894

3794

3694

3594

3494

3394

TMC

20-NOV 2017

8254

8054

7854

7654

7454

7254

7054

6854

6654


NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � SPICE COMPLEX The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Indian rice production for MY 2017/18 lower at 107.5 MMT on lower than expected planting and yield due to prolonged dry conditions and floods during planting and crop growth stages in some rice growing states. The Ministry of Agriculture's latest report indicates rice planting through September 22, 2017, at 37.7 million hectares, about 0.5 million hectares lower than rice planting during the corresponding period last year, but higher than the five-year historical average of 37.4 million hectares. Relatively dry conditions during July and August delayed planting in the largely unirrigated rice growing southern and eastern states.The prolonged dry spells during August and September affected the critical vegetative growth, tillering and flowering stages, mostly in the central states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of eastern India. The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh and northern Bihar faced severe flood conditions during August which caused damage to the standing rice crop at the early vegetative growth stage. Relatively weak reservoir water position for irrigation is also likely to affect the planting prospects for the upcoming Rabi season rice in the eastern and southern states. However, the crop is progressing very well under adequate soil moisture conditions in the irrigated rice growing areas, particularly in the northern and eastern states. Consequently, post estimates MY 2017/18 rice production at 107.5 MMT (94 MMT kharif rice and 13.5 MMT rabi rice) from 42.7 million hectare area, the second highest harvest recorded. However, cyclones in October and November in the eastern coast could further adversely affect the current production forecast. Based on the latest figures from the Food Corporation of India, government rice procurement for MY 2016/17 is estimated to reach a record 38.1 MMT compared to 34.2 MMT last year;the previous record was 35 MMT in MY 2011/12


The latest update from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted that the Brazil 2017/18 production at 107 million metric tons (mmt), a 6.1 percent reduction compared to the previous season. The drop in the production outlook is due to a return to average yields, after an almost perfect season in 2016/17. Soybean exports for Marketing Year (MY) 2017/18 are forecast at 64 mmt as a result of strong demand by China. For the current MY 2016/17, Brazil exported 56 mmt in the first 7 months of the MY, about 19 percent higher compared to the previous season. USDA forecasts soybean exports for MY 2016/17 at 65 mmt, a record. The increase is due to the higher exportable supplies, strong demand by China, and competitive export prices. Brazilian soybean producers have forward contracted the 2016/17 crop for exports at a much slower rate compared to the last couple of seasons waiting for better prices; however, the pace picked up in the last couple of months. In the first 7 months of the marketing year, Brazil exported 56 mmt, about 19 percent higher compared to the previous season. The pace of soybean exports will start to slow down as it starts to compete with corn exports, but additional port capacity in Brazilian ports should allow Brazil to continue to meet international demand. � SPICE COMPLEX NCDEX Jeera closed lower on Friday due to balanced demand and supply. Currently there is subdued demand from the physical players due to weak exports. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jul) is 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Jul down 12% on year to 7,498 tn. The arrivals have been higher during first 15 days of October at 2,676 tonnes compared to 930 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data . Turmeric futures for Nov delivery closed lower on Friday on profit booking but on weekly basis the prices have closed higher. The trend looks positive due to wet conditions in the southern peninsula which may affect the production. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, this season down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares.


Dhaniya futures resumed its southward journey tracking weak fundamentals. Cardamom futures traded with sideways sentiments on lack of buying support. Jeera and Turmeric futures faced resistance at higher levels due to profit booking and ended with losses. Arrivals of good quality Turmeric may pressurize the prices at higher levels. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish. India exported 3,06,990 tonnes of Spices worth Rs 4,589.14 crore during the first quarter of the 2017-18 financial year, up 35% as compared to 2,27,938 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, the Spices Board of India said. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term. � OILSEED COMPLEX NCDEX Soybean Nov futures closed higher last week hoping for higher demand for new season crop as prices are less than minimum support price. Market participants are expecting lower arrivals in the physical market because of festival season in coming weeks. In a press release SOPA, has estimated 201718 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Moreover, on reports of lower meal exports in September coupled with sufficient arrivals from new season crop is pressurizing the prices. India's soymeal exports during September were at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago. Moreover, huge carryover stocks also weigh on prices. The arrival of soybean during first 10 days of October was 2.91 lakh tonnes which is higher compared to last year arrivals (1.75 lt) for the same period. U.S. soybean rose on Friday, supported by good export demand and lower production estimates in the US. Soybeans also drew additional support from worries about below-normal rainfall in northern portions of Brazil's soy belt, where planting is under way. The USDA showed 17/18 soybean export sales of 1.747 mt well above the previous week. The weekly COT report had spec traders adding another 3,234 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options.


Soybean at NCDEX (Nov) continued its recovery tracking positive USDA monthly report for Prices. Higher arrivals are pressurizing the prices at current levels. Downside in Soybean likely to remain limited on support of weaker Rupee, short covering and Festive demand. The USDA expects soybean output in US, the world's biggest bean grower, at 120.58 million tons in October compared to 120.58 in previous month. During September 2016- 17 USDA estimated output at 116.92 million tons. Palm oil output during September fell to 1.77 million tons compared to 1.81 million tons in July. RMSEED at NCDEX (Nov) is likely to test next resistance of Rs.3870/qtl. Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish ahead of Festive season. NCDEX (Nov) Castor traded volatile due to short covering. Over all sentiments still looks bearish until it’s sustain above Rs.4720/qtl level. MCX (Oct) Mentha Oil faced resistance due to profit booking at higher levels; fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand. Mustard Nov futures closed lower on Thursday on fresh selling by the market participants. The fall was restricted on reports of good meal exports during the first 6 months of new financial year and increasing demand for winter crushing. Reports of higher stock levels in the country and good physical demand from the oil mills is keeping the price steady. There are improved mustard meal exports in first 6 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 242,661 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 76.4% higher on year. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 425,000 tn of mustard seed in September, down around 6% from previous month. MCX CPO traded mostly sideways on sufficient supplies with the stockiest as imports have been higher in the current oil year. The prices have been supported at higher levels due to increase in tariff value for the first half of October. However, for the second half, the government reduced the base import price of all palm oils, with the steepest cut of $31 per tn for refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein, and crude palmolein. The stock of CPO as on 1st Sept., 2017 at various ports is estimated at 3.4 lakh tonnes compared to 2.7 lakh tonnes in previous month. According to SEA release, during NovemberAugust period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lt from 46.70 lt during the same period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil rose to their strongest levels in two weeks on Friday evening, charting a third consecutive session of gains, tracking a rise in soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade. According to government statement,


Malaysia raised its export duty on palm oil for November and now will be taxed at 6.5% a ton. Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services reported Malaysia's palm oil exports during Oct 1-10 at 448,349 tonnes, up 18% on month, while SGS reported a 16.5% rise in exports at 462,082 tonnes. Market players are concerned about much higher production in Malaysia for the October month. Rising output could contribute to gains in inventory levels, which hit the 2 mt mark at endSeptember which is highest in last 19-months Refined Soy Oil Nov futures closed higher last week on expectation of good demand in coming weeks coupled with firm prices in the International markets. Soy oil the prices in physical market is falling as stockiest have good stocks ahead of festival season. Moreover, the government today cut the base import price of soyoil by $27 to $824 per tonnes. The government revises the base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate.

� OTHER COMPLEX MCX Cotton Oct futures closed lower for the second consecutive day on Friday mainly on profit booking as recent rains in the cotton growing states may improve production in the country. However, on weekly based the price have closed higher on good demand for new season cotton and reports of improved exports for Indian cotton from the Asian countries. According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17. ICE cotton futures gained more than 1% on Friday on shortcovering after a bearish monthly crop supply-demand report from the U.S. government pushed prices to over one-week lows. The USDA, in its monthly WASDE report, lowered U.S. production estimates for the 2017/18 crop year by 643,000 bales to 21.12 million bales. All upland cotton shipments for the week of 10/5 were at 118,009 RB, slightly ahead of the previous year NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl continued with bearish sentiments on profit booking at higher levels. Kapas and Cotton prices at futures also traded down on profit booking. Prices of Cotton seed oilcake may resume its northward march due to tight stocks and delay in the new crushing season in central India due to bad weather. Chana futures traded firm on lower levels buying.


Chana prices likely to remain under pressure due to sufficient availability of stocks in spot markets. Downside likely to remain limited on support of festive demand. Guar futures extended losses on profit booking. Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Nov) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely to remain firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised to the traders. Chana futures closed higher for the second consecutive day on Friday after touching lowest levels in two months during lasty week on bargain buying and expectation that the MSP may be increased for the new Rabi season. However, the chana prices fall from Rs. 6,400 per quintal levels during August last week to Rs. 5,200 levels currently due to reports of higher stocks with the stockists and traders on higher production and imports during last year. Chana production last year was increase by 32% to 93.3 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 70.6 lt in the previous year. Moreover, the imports of chana during first four month of FY 2017/18 jumped by 655% to 2.44 la.


NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW � JEERA NCDEX Jeera (Oct) continues to trade in a very narrow range of Rs.19500 - 20300 and there is no clear direction yet. Strong supports are placed at Rs.19500 / 18750 whereas Rs.20000 / 20300 are expected to act as resistances. Either side sustained breach of the mentioned levels could be decisive.


� GUARSEED NCDEX Guarseed (Oct) may consolidate within Rs.3585 - 3950 zone. The 14-period RSI is flat and closer to 50 mark indicating sideways movement. Strong supports are placed at Rs.3720 / 3585 whereas shortterm resistances are at Rs.3855 / 3950


� SOYABEAN NCDEX Soybean (Oct) is consolidating in a narrow range of Rs.3050 - 3155 for the past two weeks and either side breach could be decisive. Looking at the prior trend, short-term bias remains weak as long as price stays below Rs.3155 / 3200 mark. Short-term supports are placed at Rs.3050 / 2980 level. Selling on rise is advised.


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