Commodity Research Report 17 August 2016 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 AUG 2016

116

115

114

113

112

111

110

109

108

COPPER

31 AUG 2016

328

326

324

322

320

318

316

314

312

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2016

3160

3140

3120

3100

3080

3060

3040

3020

3000

GOLD

05AUG 2016

31700

31600

31500

31400

31300

31200

31100

31000

30900

LEAD

31 AUG 2016

128

127

126

125

124

123

122

121

120

NATURALGAS 26 AUG 2016

180

179

178

177

176

175

174

173

172

714

707

700

693

686

679

672

665

46600

46500

46400

46300

46200

46100

46000

153

152

151

150

149

148

147

NICKEL

31 AUG 2016

721

SILVER

05 SEP 2016

46800 46700

ZINC

31 AUG 2016

155

154

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 AUG 2016

119

117

115

113

111

109

107

105

103

COPPER

31 AUG 2016

331

328

325

322

319

316

313

310

307

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2016

3190

3160

3130

3100

3070

3040

3010

2980

2950

GOLD

05AUG 2016

32000

31800

31600

31400

31200

31000

30800

30600

30400

LEAD

31 AUG 2016

131

129

127

125

123

121

119

117

115

NATURALGAS

26 AUG 2016

183

181

179

177

175

173

171

169

167

NICKEL

31 AUG 2016

745

730

715

700

685

670

655

640

625

SILVER

05 SEP 2016

47100

46900

46700

46500

46300

46100

45900

45700

45500

ZINC

31 AUG 2016

158

156

154

152

150

148

146

144

142

Wednesday, 17 August 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY NATURAL GAS AUG ABOVE 178 TGT 186 SL 173

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL ZINC AUG BELOW 150 TGT 147 SL 153 - NOT EXECUTED BUY NATURAL GAS AUG ABOVE 190 TGT 196 SL 184.30 - NOT EXECUTED

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

USDINR

29 AUG 2016

67.60

EURINR

29 AUG 2016

76.20

GBPINR

29 AUG 2016

JPYINR

29 AUG 2016

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

67

66.80

66.60

66.40

66.20

66

75.60

75.40

75.20

75

74.80

74.60

87

86.70

86.40

86.10

85.80

85.50

67.40 67.20

67

66.80

66.60

66.40

66.20

66

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

67.30

67

66.70

66.40

66.10

65.80

65.50

67.40 67.20 76

75.80

87.90 87.60 87.30 67.60

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

USDINR

29 AUG 2016

EURINR

29 AUG 2016

76.50

76.20

75.90

75.60

75.30

75

74.70

74.40

74.10

GBPINR

29 AUG 2016

88.20

87.80

87.40

87

86.60

86.20

85.60

85.20

84.70

JPYINR

29 AUG 2016

68.10

67.70

67.40

67.10

66.80

66.50

66.20

65.90

65.60

67.90 67.60

WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL JPYINR AUG BELOW 66.50 TGT 66 SL 67

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GBPINR AUG ABOVE 88.30 TGT 89.30 SL 87.33

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 AUG 2016

671

669

667

665

663

661

659

657

655

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2016

3520

3500

3480

3460

3440

3420

3400

3380

3360

RMSEED

19 AUG 2016

4900

4880

4860

4840

4820

4800

4780

4760

4740

19 AUG 2016 18700 18600

18500

18400

18300 18200 18100 18000

17900

JEERAUNJHA

DATE

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 AUG 2016

674

671

668

665

662

659

656

653

650

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2016

3540

3510

3480

3450

3420

3390

3360

3330

3300

RMSEED

19 AUG 2016

4960

4920

4880

4840

4800

4760

4720

4690

4650

19 AUG 2016 19000 18800

18600

18400

18200 18000 17800 17600

17400

JEERAUNJHA

DATE

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY RM SEED SEP ABOVE 4870 TGT 4950 SL 4819

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL COCUDAKL SEP BELOW 2540 TGT 2480 SL 2603 - TGT ACHEIVED BUY JEERA SEP ABOVE 19670 TGT 20240 SL 18990 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ GLOBAL UPDATE 

U.S. industrial production rose more than expected in July, according to Federal Reserve data

released on Tuesday. 

The Labor Department said on Tuesday that the flat reading in its Consumer Price Index was

the weakest since February and followed two straight monthly increases of 0.2 percent. In the 12 months through July, the CPI rose 0.8 percent after increasing 1.0 percent in June.  

U.S. housing starts unexpectedly rose in July as building activity increased across the board,

supporting the view that investment in residential construction will rebound after slumping in the second quarter. 

The American currency declined 0.9 percent on Tuesday and slid to a seven week low as data

showed flat inflation in July, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s case for leaving interest rates on hold.

Further downside was restricted as the influential New York Fed President William Dudley reminded investors that a September rate increase is still on the table ✍ BULLION Gold edged lower on yesterday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials raised bets on a rate hike this year, with traders waiting for minutes from the last Fed policy meeting for more clues. New York Fed President William Dudley said a rate hike in September was possible, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the US economy is likely strong enough for at least one rate increase before the end of 2016, with two a possibility. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July as the cost of gasoline fell for the first time in five months and underlying inflation moderated, while U.S. housing starts unexpectedly climbed and industrial production rose more than forecast in the same month. Federal funds futures fell in the wake of comments from New York's Dudley, who said the U.S. central bank could possibly raise interest rates in September if the economy improves further. This suggested that traders saw a 55 percent chance for the Fed to raise rates in December, up from 42 percent on Monday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart later said the U.S. economy is likely strong enough for at least one interest rate increase before the end of 2016, However, recent positive data from the US only raised confusion regarding the timing of interest rates. U.S. factory production increased in July while home construction unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in five months. Earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday, U.S. retail sales were flat in July, disappointing forecasts for a 0.4% rise. Besides, July producer price index showed a decline of 0.4%, the largest drop since September 2015. Also, data showed Japan’s economy nearly stalled in the second quarter, growing by an annualized 0.2% from April through June.

✍ ENERGY The dollar's tumble to an eight-week low also supported crude prices, as did the loss of more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Nigerian output to militant attacks and pipeline problems. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably revive talks on freezing oil output levels when it meets non-OPEC nations next month, OPEC sources told Reuters, citing Saudi Arabia's wish for higher prices. Russian and OPEC energy officials discussed oil markets at a meeting in Vienna, Russia's Energy Ministry said. Another "energy dialogue" between Russia and OPEC has been scheduled there for October. Prices pared some gains in after market trade after data from the American Petroleum Institute showing an unexpected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles was overshadowed by surprise hefty builds in gasoline and distillates, indicating the glut in refined oil products was growing. Many analysts were skeptical producers would cut a deal. An OPEC production freeze plan in April was scuttled by a Saudi Arabia that was keen then to protect market share.Oil prices jumped the most in a month, rising more than 4 percent last week, after comments from the Saudi oil minister about possible action to stabilize prices triggered a round of buying and the International Energy Agency forecast crude markets would tighten in the second half of 2016. According to the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) report U.S. crude oil inventories are down just over 1 million barrels for the week ended 12 August, , but U.S. gasoline inventories are up over 2 million barrels in the biggest increase in six months. However, sharp upside was capped as the oil minister of Nigeria, another OPEC member, said Monday that a deal within the 14-country group is unlikely next month.

Natural gas advanced partially in sympathy with stronger oil prices after forecasts for milder temperatures, Jim Ritterbusch of Chicagobased oil markets consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note. He added that buying interest was constrained by cooler temperature trends that were beginning to stretch toward the end of August. Such weather usually translates to reduced need for air conditioning, meaning also less burning of gas for power consumption ✍ BASE METAL Besides, Chile’s Codelco, the world's top copper miner, may soon change its focus from cost reductions to output cuts, as the stateowned miner faces what its chief executive called the “worst crisis ever” since created in 1976. However, sharp upside was capped as weak data from the US and China remains a cause of concern. China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) for the January-to-July period rose 8.1 percent, marking the slowest growth since 1999. Copper eased by 0.25 per cent to Rs 320.40 per kg in futures trade today today as traders trimmed positions amid sluggish demand at the domestic spot markets. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August month declined by 80 paise, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 320.40 per kg in business turnover of 870 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in November contracts shed 70 paise, or 0.21 per cent to Rs 326.80 per kg in 26 lots

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS 

The fourth low-pressure area in a series in the Bay of Bengal has intensified a round and is

forecast to become a depression by Wednesday. This is the second successive time that a monsoon depression will take shape in the Bay; the preceding one had gone on to become a deep depression to preside over heavy rainfall in East and Central India. The busy state of theBay from early this month indicates strong monsoon conditions but the gains are accruing only for the northern half of the country. According to India Met Department, yet another low-pressure area might materialise over the Bay in another five days (around August 20) that will sustain the monsoon over East and Central India.

But the southern half might continue to suppressed rain conditions since, like in all preceding cases, the rain-driving ‘low’ will be located too far away for comfort. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology attributed this to the displacement from the Indian Ocean region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave towards the North-West Pacific/South China Sea. (Source: HBL) 

The Western India Sugar Mills Association (WISMA) has appealed to the Centre to intervene

and restore the exemption granted earlier on the levy on ethanol in the interests of the sugar industry.

In a representation sent to the chairman of the Central Excise and Customs, the association has objected to the withdrawal of the exemption since this would have an impact on the committed supplies for the industry producing ethanol from molasses generated from cane crushed in the sugar season of 2015- 16. The exemption was issued by the Central Excise and Customs in June 2015.

(Source: FE) ✍ SOYABEAN The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has urged the Narendra Modi government to increase duty on imported crude soybean oil to 37.5% and 45% on refined soybean oil, which is the WTO bound rate. This will check large scale import of cheap soybean oil and enable the domestic industry to start soybean meal exports again. It will also encourage soybean and other oilseed growers, the association feels. In a letter to the Prime Minister, SOPA chairman Davish Jain has said that the soybean processing industry has been going through one of its toughest periods for the last 3 years and many of the units have had to close down. The major reason for this is large scale import of cheap edible oils including soybean oil at low rate of duty which has pushed up our prices of soybean meal and made us uncompetitive in the world market.As on 12 Aug, Indian farmers have planted soybean on 112.3 lh, up by 0.3% compared to last year sowing data. Soybean sowing is now nearing an end, and total acreage this year is likely to remain around last year's level of 116 lh, despite the sharp drop in sowing Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, acreage was lagging 8.1% on year, while in Rajasthan; it was lagging by 7.3%, as farmers had switched to pulses and other crops but acreage increase in Maharashtra and Gujarat. U.S. soybean prices fell pressured by good weather and signs the U.S. oilseed crop remains in prime health. There is a forecast of beneficial rains for the U.S.

Midwest this week and later in the month as the crop continues to set pods. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday said 72 percent of the soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, steady from a week ago and above last year's 63 percent.

✍ JEERA In the benchmark Unjha market in Gujarat, jeera was sold for 19,100 rupees per 100 kg, down from Saturday. •Stocks of jeera in NCDEX warehouse as of 16th Aug 2016 increased from previous day to 5903 tonnes and 60 tonnes are in process.The export demand has not picked up as expected by the market participants. There is good demand from China and other countries and may improve as the prices have now dropped. In the next few months, the prices will depend on export demand. {{ According to Dept of Commerce, the exports of Jeera in the first two month of 2016-17 increased by more than 82.5% at 33,908 tonnes compared to last year same time. As per the trade sources, India's jeera exports rose nearly 25% to around 50,000 tonnes in Apr-Jul from 40,000 tn in the yearago period due to good demand from China and Bangladesh. China imported 1,500-1,700 tn jeera in last 15 days. As per 4thadvance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.38 lt compared to 1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt.

✍ TURMERIC Despite a fall in turmeric arrivals, the spot prices fell due to subdued demand from stockists. In Telangana, the bulb variety was sold in the range of 7,500-7,700 rupees per 100 kg, while the finger variety sold in the range 7,800-8,000 rupees, both down from Friday. Arrivals of turmeric in Nizamabad were estimated at 1,800 bags, (1 bag =70 kg), down from Friday. •In Erode, the bulb variety was sold in the range of 7,800-8,000 rupees per 100 kg, while the finger variety was sold in a range of 7,900-8,100 rupees, both down from Friday. Arrivals of the spice in Erode were down at 3,500 bags, compared with Friday. Turmeric acreage in Telangana as on 10 Aug was up 14 % at 43,000 hectares as compared to 38,000 hectares last year. Area in AP also higher by more than 5%.

The acreage of turmeric is higher compared to normal in both states. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in April- May 2016 increased by 31% compared to last year at 21,256 tonnes. In 2015-16, 85,426 tonnes exported compared to 90,738 tonnes in 2014-15. Major export destinations in 2015-16 are Iran, Malaysia, UAE, USA and Srilanka. The arrivals in the main physical markets such as Nizamabad, Duggirala (AP), Salem, Erode and Sangli reported decreasing. There is expectation of lower arrivals and good upcountry demand may lend support in coming weeks

✍ CORIANDER Coriander futures traded higher due to short covering. The most active September coriander contract ended at 7,869 rupees per 100 kg, up 0.36% from the previous close. •However, prices of coriander

were flat in the spot markets of Rajasthan as demand from bulk buyers remained sluggish. •Badami quality of coriander was sold at 7,750 rupees per 100 kg in Ramganj, one of the major trading centres, while the eagle variety was quoted at 8,000rupees. •Coriander arrivals in the major spot markets of Rajasthan were pegged at 8,000 bags (1 bag = 40 kg) today, up from 6,000 bags on Saturday. •Total stocks of coriander in exchange accredited warehouse as of 16th Aug 2016 increased from previous day to 6543 tonnes and 825 tonnes are in process.

As per trade source, farmers are staying away from sowing coriander due to record high prices in other crop such as chana and jeera. Still, probability arise for coriander acreage to increase to 1,35,000 ha this rabi season from 1,25,000 ha a year ago, due to better monsoon rains. However, PVO Analysis implies short covering.

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