BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Increases in U.S. interest rates and expectations for higher global rates have “combined to keep a lid on precious metals prices, Gold on MCX settled flat at 27845 for a second session amid little response to ongoing testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. There has been further mixed currency trading with only limited impact on gold, but a renewed increase in bond yields has put some downward pressure on prices. The dollar remained on the defensive against the yen during the US session on Wednesday, although there was choppy trading against the Euro with gold consolidating just above the $1,220 per ounce area. During the European session there were source reports from the ECB that the central bank could plan to wind down the quantitative easing bond-buying programme at the September meeting. The Euro regained some support following the reports, although there was also a significant impact in reversing earlier declines in bond yields with a small net increase in European bond yields into the US open. Now investors now looked ahead to more comments from the Fed chair, will testify for a second day on the institution's monetary policy in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has since raised doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will be able to stick to its planned tightening path. Technically Gold market is getting support at 27785 and below same could see a test of 27726 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27930, a move above could see prices testing 28016.
GOLD CHART
Chart Details -On the Above given daily chart of Gold in which we applied Bollinger Band along with Moving Averages From a technical perspective, Gold prices broke above channel resistance defining the down trend since early June. From here, the next layer of resistance comes in at 1239.60 (trend line support-turned-resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A daily close above that opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 1250.38. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1226.26 targets a minor chart pivot at 1219.35, followed by the July 10 low at 1204.70. On MCX Gold market is getting support at 27785 and below same could see a test of 27726 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27930, a move above could see prices testing 28016.
Monday, 17July 2017
SILVER -Silver has posted a decline of 1.7% so far this year, compared with a year-to-date gain of 5.7% for gold GCQ7, +0.78%. Silver tends to trade in tandem with gold, but its moves are often much more exaggerated given the fact that it’s a much smaller market, making it a lot more volatile. Silver on MCX settled down -1.07% at 36571 after prices has gained in three of the past four sessions to trade at nearly one-week highs. Prices underwent a major correction last week, including a sudden flash crash that wiped as much as 11% off the grey metal’s value. The declines culminated in fresh 15-month lows on Friday. Pressure seen after the MSCI world index hit a record high for the fourth time in less than a month as investors took Yellen's remarks as a green light for risk-taking. Also China posted stronger-than-expected June trade figures, bolstering the U.S. dollar, which advanced against a currency basket. The greenback earlier hit its lowest since last October after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a less hawkish than expected tone in testimony before Congress on Wednesday. On the contra Gold has been finding support from safe-haven demand amid political turmoil steaming out of Donald Trump Jr.'s release of emails revealing the Trump administration's alleged connection with Russia. Adding to this, fading prospects for an aggressive Fed rate tightening cycle, following Wednesday's perceived dovish testimony by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen further reaffirmed by sliding US Treasury bond yields, was also seen driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, persistent US Dollar weakness, which tends to boost demand for dollar-denominated commodities, remained supportive of the metal's tepid recovery move back closer to weekly tops touched in the previous session. Investors now look forward to Friday's important US macro data - monthly retail sales and the latest inflation figures, in order to determine the next leg of directional move for the commodity .Technically Silver market is getting support at 36374 and below same could see a test of 36177 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36924, a move above could see prices testing 37277.
SILVER CHART
Detail of Chart -On the Above given daily Chart of Silver Applied Bollinger Band and Moving Averages Along with Parabolic SAR, All are Momentum Oscillators. From a technical perspective, Silver markets initially fell during the week, but reached a bit of support just above the $15 level. As soft or than anticipated economic numbers came out of the United States on Friday, the market turned around and therefore reached towards the $16 level. It now looks as if the $15 level will be massively supportive, and if we can stay above there I think there is going to be a bit of a “buy on the dips” mentality, so I think that the volatility will continue. I believe that the silver market should continue to be one that is difficult to handle, so having said that I think that perhaps a nonleveraged position might be the best way to approach this market from a longer-term perspective. This is because the volatility will of course cause massive fluctuations in account value. On MCX Silver market is getting support at 36374 and below same could see a test of 36177 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36924, a move above could see prices testing 37277.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31- JULY-17
126
125
124
124
123
123
122
121
120
COPPER
31- AUG-2017
394
390
386
384
382
380
378
374
370
CRUDE OIL
19-JULY-17
3150
3093
3036
3006
2979
2949
2922
2865
2808
GOLD
04-AUG-2017
28822
28520
28218
28061
27916
27759
27614
27312
27010
LEAD
31- JULY-2017
156
153
150
149
147
146
144
141
138
NATURAL GAS
26-JULY-2017
203
199
195
194
191
190
187
183
179
NICKEL
31- JULY -2017
669
647
625
614
603
592
581
559
537
SILVER
05-SEP-2017
39504
38585
37666
37170
36747
36251
35828
34909
33990
ZINC
31- JULY-2017
191
187
183
182
179
178
175
171
167
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31- JULY-17
138
133
128
126
123
121
118
113
108
COPPER
31- AUG-2017
411
401
391
387
381
377
371
361
351
19-JULY-17
3490
3302
3114
3030
2926
2842
2738
2550
2362
GOLD
04-AUG-2017
29261
28791
28321
28099
27851
27629
27381
26911
26441
LEAD
31- JULY-2017
163
158
153
151
148
146
143
138
133
NATURAL GAS
26-JULY-2017
226
214
202
195
190
183
178
166
154
NICKEL
31- JULY -2017
719
678
637
619
596
578
555
514
473
SILVER
05-SEP-2017
41827
40043
38259
37490
35706
34691
32907
31123
ZINC
31- JULY-2017
204
196
188
183
175
172
164
156
CRUDE OIL
36475 180
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27-JULY-17
64.69
64.60
64.51
64.44
64.35
64.28
64.19
64.12
64.05
EURINR
27-JULY-17
74.30
74.16
74.02
73.84
73.70
73.52
73.38
73.20
73.02
GBPINR
27-JULY-17
84.75
84.65
84.55
84.34
84.24
84.03
83.93
83.72
83.51
JPYINR
27-JULY-17
58.40
58.17
57.94
57.63
57.14
56.96
56.69
56.44
56.07
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
S4
USDINR
27-JULY-17
64.94
64.84
64.74
64.58
64.47
64.32
64.21
64.05
63.89
EURINR
27-JULY-17
74.48
74.27
74.08
73.85
73.66
73.43
73.24
73.01
72.78
GBPINR
27-JULY-17
84.76
84.69
84.57
84.39
84.26
84.07
83.95
83.76
83.64
JPYINR
27-JULY-17
59.88
59.74
59.63
59.44
58.78
58.46
57.20
57.01
56.85
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
SYOREFIDR
20-JULY--2017
SYBEANIDR
20-JULY--2017
RMSEED
R3
R2
R1
645
641
639
2986
2853
2920
2902
20-JULY--2017
3818
3759
3700
JEERAUNJHA 20-JULY--2017
20926
20616
GUARSEED10 20-JULY--2017
3542
20-JULY--2017
7971
TMC
R4 649
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
635
633
629
625
2887
2869
2854
2821
2788
3666
3641
3607
3582
3523
3464
20306
20043
19996
19733
19686
19376
19066
3463
3384
3344
3305
3265
3226
3147
3068
7745
7519
7378
7293
7152
7067
6841
6615
637
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-JULY--2017
673
662
651
645
640
634
629
618
607
SYBEANIDR
20-JULY--2017
3391
3242
3093
3017
2944
2868
2795
2646
2497
RMSEED
20-JULY--2017
3913
3822
3731
3694
3640
3603
3549
3458
3367
JEERAUNJHA 20-JULY--2017
24891
23056
21221
20348
19386
18513
17551
15716
13881
GUARSEED10
20-JULY--2017
3795
3621
3447
3375
3273
3201
3099
2925
2751
TMC
20-JULY--2017
8953
8345
7737
7412
7129
6804
6521
5913
5305
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) ✍ GOLD Gold prices rose to two-week highs on Friday as weak U.S. inflation data added to doubts over whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates for a third time this year. Gold futures for August delivery ended up 0.95% at $1,228.88 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $1,232.7 earlier, the most since July 3. The precious metal ended the week with gains of 1.32%. U.S. consumer price inflation slowed to 1.6% in June from 1.9% in May, the Labor Department said on Friday. Consumer spending was also weaker than expected, with retail sales falling 0.2% in June, compared to expectations of a 0.1% rise. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year but the sluggish inflation outlook has raised questions over whether officials will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. In testimony before Congress on Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the economy is on a strong enough footing for the Fed to raise rates, but she also reiterated that inflation is below target and noted that it is a particular “uncertainty” that could affect monetary policy. Expectations that rates will stay low tend to boost gold, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing investments when borrowing costs rise. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.69% to 94.9 late Friday, its lowest trough since October 5. The weaker greenback boosted gold, making the dollar-priced commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures rose 1.71% to $15.96 a troy ounce and notched up a weekly gain of 2.38%. In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting for fresh clues on when the central bank will shift away from its ultra-easy policy. Monday’s data on Chinese second quarter growth will also be closely watched along with inflation data out of the UK. Gold prices jumped 1.4 percent to the highest level in nearly two weeks on Friday after data pointed to weak U.S. inflation, reaffirming doubts that the U.S. central bank would again hike interest rates this year. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in June and retail sales fell for a second straight month. Bond yields dipped and the dollar index .DXY slid to their lowest level since September 2016 after the weaker-thanexpected figures. Spot gold XAU= gained 0.96 pct at $1,228.61 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. EDT (1901 GMT) after hitting $1,232.76. It was poised for a weekly gain of 1.3 percent, the biggest since mid-May. The U.S. data bolstered expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely to move slowly to continue raising interest rates in the absence of inflation signs. Some had been expecting another rate hike in 2017. Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments to the U.S. Congress this week "were more dovish than originally anticipated," said David Meger, director of metals trading for High Ridge Futures in Chicago. Friday's "data reaffirms the delay," he said. "We're seeing precious (prices) buoyed on the back of that." The most-active U.S. gold
futures GCcv1 for August delivery futures settled up $ 10.20, or 0.84 percent, at $ 1,227.50 per ounce. The contract finished the week up 1.5 percent, its first gain in six weeks. The weaker greenback boosted gold, making the dollar-priced commodity cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said the chart picture had been damaged last week when gold broke below its May lows, but bullion was now fighting back. "The key level is $1,230 on gold. In order to turn neutral again we need to move back above that level," he said. Meanwhile, holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund fell 0.43 percent to 828.84 tonnes on Thursday from 832.39 tonnes on Wednesday. Gold demand fell in India this week, with dealers offering a discount for the first time in one month despite a correction in local prices as consumers advanced purchases in June before the rollout of a new nationwide sales tax. Elsewhere in Asia, a spurt in buying was short-lived as global prices recovered from near fourmonth lows hit on Monday. Bullion dealers in India offered a discount of up to $1.20 an ounce this week over official domestic prices MAUc1 , compared with a premium of $ 2.00 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. Consumers bought more gold in the last week of June to avoid paying a higher 3 percent rate under the Goods and Services Tax that came into effect from July 1. demand is very weak. That's why even jewellers are trimming purchases,". Gold prices MAUc1 in India are trading at near their lowest level in six months. India's gold imports in June more than tripled from a year earlier to 75 tonnes, but it could fall below 35 tonnes in July, consultancy GFMS said. market is oversupplied despite lower imports in the first week of July. There is ample stockpile from last month's imports," said a Mumbaibased dealer with a private bank. In top consumer China, premiums were at $10.00 per ounce, compared with the $9.00-$10.00 range last week, while in Hong Kong, the premiums were at 70 cents to $1.00 against 50 cents-$1.00 in the previous week. "There was quite a bit of physical buying when prices dropped, but with prices going back up slightly around the $1,220 level, demand has stabilised," said a Singapore-based dealer. The international spot gold benchmark XAU= was little changed around the $1,218 per ounce level on Friday and was on track to register its first weekly gain in three, having recovered from Monday's $1,204.45, the lowest since mid-March. Gold prices edged higher in European trade on Thursday, nearing a one-week high following Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's congressional testimony to gradually raise interest rates. Comex gold futures were at $1,222.49 a troy ounce by 3:18AM ET, up $3.40, or around 0.3%. Prices tallied a third-straight gain Wednesday after Yellen sounded cautious on inflation and noted the Fed would not need to raise rates "all that much further" to reach current low estimates of the neutral funds rate. She also said that the U.S. economy is healthy enough for the Fed to begin winding down its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet at some point this year. The speech was seen as mainly dovish by market participants. The dollar index traded down almost 0.3% at 95.31 in early trade, not far from the nine-month low of 95.22 plumbed in late June. Yields of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 2.32%, well off highs near 2.39% touched last week. Investors now looked ahead to more comments from the Fed chair, will testify for a second day on the
institution's monetary policy in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00AM ET . Besides Yellen, Thursday's calendar also features PPI inflation data and weekly jobless claims, both due at 8:30AM ET. Monthly CPI data is due Friday. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has since raised doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will be able to stick to its planned tightening path. Futures traders are pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike by the end of the year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Gold prices rose on Wednesday, edging further from this week's near four-month low after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen curbed speculation that U.S. interest rates would rise more than once this year. In congressional testimony, Yellen said that given current estimates the Fed would not need to lift rates all that much further to reach a neutral level that neither encourages nor discourages economic activity. That weighed on the dollar .DXY and U.S. Treasury yields, helping lift gold further from Monday's trough of $1,204.45, the weakest price since mid-March. Spot gold XAU= was 0.24 percent at $1,220.26 per ounce by 3:02 p.m. EDT. The most-active U.S. gold GCcv1 futures for August delivery settled up $4.40 or 0.36 percent, at $ 1,219.1 per ounce. Prices had rallied as much as 1.8 percent from Monday's near four-month low of $ 1,204. "Gold reacts negatively to a rising interest rate atmosphere, but there are limits to that," said James Steel. Yellen's statements indicated that "tightening policies will not necessarily be abrupt," Steel said. The dollar slipped and U.S. Treasury yields fell after Yellen's comments in what may be one of her last appearances before Congress. Gold prices edged higher in European trade on Wednesday, extending gains into a third-straight session, as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for fresh cues on policy direction. Comex gold futures were at $1,217.27 a troy ounce by 4:00AM ET, up $ 2.60, or around 0.2%. Prices settled with a modest gain for a second-straight session on Tuesday. Yellen is scheduled to testify on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00AM ET (1400GMT) Wednesday. Text of the testimony will be released 90 minutes before she starts speaking. Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike and clues on how the central bank plans to pare back its massive balance sheet. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has since raised doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will be able to stick to its planned tightening path. Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday suggested her support for any future rate increases will depend in part on how inflation shapes up. Futures traders are pricing in around a 50% chance of a hike by the end of the year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Spot gold rose on Tuesday, off the previous day's near four-month lows, as a drop in equities drove safehaven buying and the U.S. dollar retreated. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.23 percent at $ 1,216.79 per ounce by
3:08 p.m. EDT (1908 GMT), near Monday's $1,204.45, its lowest since March 15. U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCcv1 settled up $1.5, or 0.12 percent, at $1,214.70 per ounce. U.S. stocks and the dollar reversed gains after U.S. President Donald Trump's eldest son released an email chain which mentioned a top Russian government prosecutor offering the Trump campaign damaging information about Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. brief but sharp drop in equity markets caused safe-haven gold to bounce back this afternoon The weaker currency makes dollar-denominated commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies, which could subdue demand. The greenback fell after hitting a four-month high against the Japanese yen on the past fortnight's 25-basis-point rise in 10-year U.S. government bond yields. Traders awaited a speech from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later this week and any signs of tightening of monetary policy from the central bank. Gold prices are down more than 6 percent from a seven-month high near $1,300 hit in June. Perceptions that an era of ultra-cheap money is gradually ending have been reinforced by European Central Bank minutes showing policymakers are open to reducing monetary stimulus. Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates on Wednesday. Yellen is scheduled to deliver a semiannual monetary policy testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. Higher U.S. interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which yields nothing and costs money to store and insure. "Gold should recover from this latest pullback as the move higher in real rates is unlikely to be sustained and we see longer-term value around these levels," UBS analysts said in a note. India's gold imports in June more than tripled from a year ago as retail demand jumped ahead of the start of a new sales tax that prompted jewellers and bullion dealers to replenish stocks, provisional data from consultancy GFMS showed. June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago, GFMS said. For the first half of the year, imports rose to 514 tonnes, up 161 percent from a year ago. The rush of buying by retail consumers in the world's second-biggest consumer of the precious metal will likely lead to lower July imports, GFMS said. That would put pressure on global gold prices XAU= that are already trading near their lowest level since mid-March. "Demand was higher than normal in June as some consumers advanced buying to avoid paying higher tax," Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst with GFMS, a division of Thomson Reuters, said on Tuesday. As part of a new nationwide sales tax regime that kicked in on July 1, the goods and services tax on gold jumped to 3 percent from 1.2 percent previously. Gold premiums in India jumped to $10 an ounce in the last week of June, the highest level in 7-1/2 months. would be significantly less in July compared to June. Right now demand is very weak due to monsoon," In July, gold demand usually remains weak in India due to fewer weddings and as farmers are busy sowing crops. Two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas, where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth. India's gold imports in July could be less than 35 tonnes, the lowest level in 11 months, said Nambiath. Gold prices edged lower in European trade on Tuesday, moving back towards the lowest level in around four months as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for fresh cues on policy direction. Comex gold futures were at $1,209.65 a troy ounce by 3:45AM ET, down $3.60, or around 0.3%. Prices saw a modest bounce back on Monday after touching their lowest since March 15 at $1,204.00. Fed
Chair Janet Yellen is set to deliver her semi-annual monetary policy testimony on the economy before Senate and House committees in Washington DC later this week. Yellen is scheduled to testify on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00AM ET Wednesday. On Thursday, she will appear in front the House Financial Services Committee also at 10AM ET. Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike and clues on how the central bank plans to pare back its massive balance sheet. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Tuesday in Sydney that it was a reasonable view to expect one more rate hike this year, and his own view was to start adjusting the central bank's balance sheet in the next few months. Later in the day, Fed Governor Lael Brainard was due to speak in New York. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has since raised doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will be able to stick to its planned tightening path. Futures traders are pricing in around a 50% chance of a hike by the end of the year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Gold prices edged up on Monday from their lowest since mid-March in choppy trade, after nearing technical support and as traders awaited signals from central banks on interest rate hikes. Bullion is highly sensitive to rising rates because they push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. They also tend to boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Traders were looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address Congress. stalling right after the selling got a little exhausted on Friday. Spot gold XAU= , which dropped 2.3 percent last week, was up 0.07 percent at $1,213.61 per ounce by 2:32 p.m. EDT (1832 GMT), turning up after hitting $1,204.45, the lowest since March 15. U.S. gold GCcv1 futures for August delivery settled up $3.50, or 0.29 percent, at $1,213.20 per ounce. Traders expected monetary tightening from many central banks. That rationale was bolstered by better than expected U.S. jobs data and strong German export figures. also fuelled optimism about the global growth outlook, encouraging investors to ditch gold for riskier assets. Gold prices fell to a fresh four-month low in European trade on Monday, as investors looked ahead to comments from key Fed officials and a raft of U.S. economic data for further signs of the central bank's likely rate hike trajectory through the end of the year. Comex gold futures were at $1,205.63 a troy ounce by 3:15AM ET, down $4.20, or around 0.4%. It touched it its lowest since March 15 at $1,204.00 earlier. Gold fell sharply on Friday to notch its fifth weekly loss in a row as upbeat monthly data on U.S. jobs supported expectations for at least one more rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs last month the Labor Department reported, more than the 179,000 new jobs expected by economists. Figures for April and May were also revised to show that 47,000 more jobs were created than previously reported. But while the employment headline number was strong, inflation pressure was still tame. Average hourly earnings increased just 0.2% in June, falling short of the estimated 0.3% increase. The rapid pace of jobs growth reassured investors that the economy is on a strong enough footing to justify the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates once more this year. The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but the subdued inflation outlook has since raised doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will be able to stick to its planned tightening path.
AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS. Monday, July 17 Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday. China is to release data on gross domestic product, industrial production and business investment. The euro zone is to release revised data on consumer inflation. Canada is to report on foreign securities purchases. The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the New York region. Tuesday, July 18 New Zealand is to release inflation data. The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The UK is to release its latest inflation figures. The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment. The U.S. is to report on import prices. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Hampshire. Wednesday, July 19 Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales. The U.S. is to produce reports on building permits and housing starts. Thursday, July 20 Australia is to release its latest employment report as well as private sector data on business confidence. The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. The UK is to report on retail sales. The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and President Mario Draghi is to hold a press conference. The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. Friday, July 21 The UK is to report on public sector net borrowing. Canada is to round up the week with data on inflation and retail sales.
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ENERGY
Oil prices settled higher for the fifth session in a row on Friday, to score a weekly gain of roughly 5% as investors cheered data suggesting that demand for oil will pick up during the second half of 2017. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude August contract tacked on 46 cents, or around 1%, to end at $46.54 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It touched its highest since July 5 at $46.74 earlier. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery rose 49 cents, or 1%, to settle at $48.91 a barrel by close of trade, after touching a more than one-week peak of $49.11 earlier in the session. For the week, WTI gained $2.31, or about 5%, while Brent rose $2.20, or roughly 4.5%, aided by reports of accelerating demand growth from the International Energy Agency, crude oil import growth in China and falling crude stocks in the U.S. Despite recent gains, concerns over rising global supplies remained on investors' minds. U.S. drillers added two oil rigs in the week to July 14, energy services company Baker Hughes announced on Friday. This brings the total count up to 765, the most since April 2015, underlining concern that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance the market. In May, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria. OPEC member Kuwait said on Friday it would be premature to cap Nigerian and Libyan oil production as the two African countries' output needed to stabilize further. A ministerial committee from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which is headed by Gulf OPEC member Kuwait, will meet in Russia on July 24 to discuss compliance with the cuts. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for August jumped 3.4 cents, or about 2.3%, to end at $1.560 on Friday, for a weekly gain of around 4.1%. August heating oil finished up 2.3 cents, or 1.6%, at $1.515 a gallon, with an increase of almost 4.6% on the week. Natural gas futures for August delivery ticked up 1.9 cents to settle at $2.980 per million British thermal units. It saw a weekly rise of roughly 4%. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year. Oil was firm Friday remaining on track for weekly gains of about 5% as the latest U.S. rig count is awaited. U.S. crude was up 40 cents, or 0.87%, at $46.48 at 07:00 ET. Brent added 45 cents, or 0.93%, to $ 48.87. The market was underpinned this week by a big draw in U.S. crude inventories. On the negative side, OPEC compliance with agreed output cuts fell to its lowest level in six months in June. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to curb output by 1.8 million barrels a day through to March. OPEC output also increased in June as Libya and Nigeria raised production. The two countries have been exempt from the output cut accord. The curbs have failed to have the desired impact of reducing global inventories. Baker Hughes U.S. rig count data are due out later in the session. U.S. drilling activity has increased 24 out of the
past 25 weeks. Oil prices were mostly unchanged on Friday as investors took a pause after four straight sessions of gains with black gold on track for a weekly rise of about 3.7%. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude August contract slipped 2 cent, or around 0.04%, to $46.06 a barrel by 4:54AM ET. Elsewhere, Brent oil for September delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London inched up 3 cents, or 0.06%, to $48.45 a barrel. Supporting bullish sentiment in crude this week, U.S. crude inventories registered a larger-than-expected draw and investors cheered data pointing to an increase in demand for oil from China as imports increased 13.8% to 8.55m bpd during the first six months of the year, compared to the same period a year ago. That outweighed the bearish news that OPEC compliance on the agreement to extend production cuts with nonOPEC members led by Russia by 1.8 million barrels per day through March 2018 hit 78%, its lowest level in six months. So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output. U.S. drillers added seven oil rigs, energy services company Baker Hughes announced last Friday, marking a 24th week of increases out of the last 25. That brought the total count up to 763, the most since April 2015, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. Baker Hughes will release its most recent reading later on Friday. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for August delivery advanced 0.05% at $ 1.5273 a gallon, while August heating oil gained 0.13% to $1.4937 a gallon. Natural gas futures for August delivery traded up 0.57% to $2.978 per million British thermal units. Oil markets edged lower on Friday amid high fuel inventories and improving industry efficiency, but remained on track for a solid weekly gain, Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $48.23 per barrel at 0709 GMT. They have risen about 3.5 percent so far this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 45.93 per barrel, down 15 cents, but heading for a 3.8-percent gain over the week. Crude prices are still around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pledged to withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day of output between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market. "OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 percent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 percent of the OPEC cuts. The growth in U.S. production over the same time negates the remainder," U.S. investment bank Jefferies said. Oil markets dipped on Friday, pulled down by high fuel inventories and improving industry efficiency, but were still on track for a solid weekly gain. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $48.34 per barrel at 0151 GMT, but up 3.5 percent for the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $45.98 per barrel, down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, but up around 4 percent for the week. Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pledged to
withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day of production between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten the market. Oil analysts at research and brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil stocks remain high. For the first half of 2017, OECD inventories are likely to finish higher, rather than lower... The most plausible explanation is that OPEC compliance has been not as high as has been suggested," Bernstein said. "OPEC will have to cut deeper and for longer if it wants to eliminate the inventory overhang and prices to rise. . Oil prices rose 1.3 percent on Thursday after much stronger demand in China overshadowed a downbeat report by the International Energy Agency that showed higher production by key OPEC exporters. Brent crude LCOc1 settled up 68 cents or 1.42 percent at $48.42 a barrel. U.S. light crude CLc1 settled up 59 cents at $46.08 a barrel. "The market is trying to stabilize. Prices had responded only minimally to data Wednesday showing U.S. crude oil inventories dropped last week by the most in 10 months. "The market is having difficulty picking its head up,". Oil prices have dropped in recent weeks to levels not seen since the end of last year as investors lost faith in a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reduce output, while U.S. shale oil production has risen sharply. But there is evidence world oil demand is picking up, notably in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers. China imported 8.55 million barrels per day of oil in the first half of this year, up 13.8 percent from the same period in 2016, making it the world's biggest crude importer ahead of the United States. are definitely seeing robust demand growth. Rising demand is helping to drain a global fuel glut but rebalancing of the market is taking longer than anticipated. The IEA said the oil market could stay oversupplied for longer than expected due to rising production and limited output cuts by some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. "Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process," the IEA report said. Oil prices dipped early on Thursday as producer club OPEC said it expected demand for its crude to decline next year as rivals pump more, pointing to a market surplus in 2018 despite efforts to tighten the market. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $47.64 per barrel at 0133 GMT, down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $45.37 per barrel, down 12 cents, or 0.3 percent. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said late on Wednesday that the world would need 32.20 million barrels per day of crude from its members next year, down 60,000 bpd from this year, as consumers have increasing choice of supplies from outside OPEC. OPEC said its output rose by 393,000 bpd in June to 32.611 million bpd. The gain was led by Nigeria and Libya. This came despite a pledge by OPEC to curb output by about 1.2 million bpd between January this year and March 2018, while Russia and other non-OPEC producers say they will hold back half as much. Despite the ongoing supply overhang, there are signs of a gradual reduction of the glut. In the United States, crude oil inventories last week dropped the most in 10 months. Crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell 7.6 million barrels in the week to July 7, to 495.35 million barrels. The decline was the biggest since the week ended Sept. 4. U.S. crude inventories remain far above their five-year average, stocks have fallen 7 percent since record levels from
late March. Oil held onto sharp gains Wednesday as U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the latest week, official data showed Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate was up 2.73% at $46.27 after the data release. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell by 7.564 million barrels after a drop of 6.299 million barrels the previous week. Crude inventories were forecast to fall by 2.850 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.647 million barrels after a fall of 3.669 million barrels the previous week. Gasoline inventories were expected to rise by 1.147 million barrels. Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous day as the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as fuel inventories plunged. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 60 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.12 per barrel by 0657 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $45.72 per barrel, up 68 cents, or 1.5 percent. Both settled about 1.4 percent higher on Tuesday. "The oil price ... climbed sharply overnight as the Energy Information Agency cut its forecast for U.S. production in 2018 and API data showed another large inventory drawdown," U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week to July 7 to 495.6 million, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Oil turned lower after earlier gains Tuesday as supply concerns continue to overhang the market. U.S. crude was off 45 cents, or 1.01%, at $43.95 at 08:00 ET. Brent shed 53 cents, or 1.13%, to $ 46.35. Oil prices were partly underpinned by expectations of a pick-up in demand for gasoline during the U.S. driving season. Output cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia, of 1.8 million barrels a day through to March have failed to have the desired impact on inventories as U.S. production continues to rise. Russia and key OPEC producers are due to meet later this month in Saint Petersburg to discuss the market situation. Nigeria and Libya, which have been exempt from the OPEC-led cuts and have also increased production, may be invited to attend the meeting. The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its latest weekly stockpiles report later in the session. The Energy Information Administration's official inventories report is due for release Wednesday. The EIA is forecast to report a fall in U.S. crude stocks of 3.225 million barrels in the latest week. Oil edged up on Tuesday, lifted by a strong demand outlook for the coming weeks, but overall market conditions remain weak on the back of an ongoing fuel supply overhang, prompting several banks to cut their price forecasts. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $47.01 per barrel at 0545 GMT, up 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $44.50 per barrel. Traders said the uptick in prices was in part due to healthy demand expected in the coming weeks. Weekly U.S. gasoline demand data "compares favourably to the five-year average and miles driven also continue to grow year-on-year. However, beyond the seasonal strength, "U.S. gasoline demand may have peaked in absolute terms last year", adding that there was no structural tightness in sight once the peak demand summer season finishes. Crude prices are about 18 percent below their 2017 opening levels despite a deal led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production from January. OPEC along with some other major exporters like Russia agreed to hold back around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of production between January this year and March 2018. However, an over 10 percent
jump since mid-2016 in U.S. production C-OUT-T-EIA to 9.34 million bpd, as well as rising output from Nigeria and Libya, OPEC-members who were exempt from cutting, have undermined efforts to tighten the market. AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS. Tuesday, July 18 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Wednesday, July 19 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles. Thursday, July 20 The U.S. government is set to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage. Friday, July 21 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : Trading Ideas: NICKEL Nickel trading range for the day is 584.9-628.7. Nickel rallied as support seen after LME nickel gained to strongest daily percentage gain since November helped by encouraging economic reports from China. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte promised to resolve an impasse caused by a ministerial order to close more than 20 mines in the world's top source of nickel ore. South Korea bought 150 tonnes of nickel for September arrival via a tender that closed, state-run Public Procurement Service said. ZINC Zinc trading range for the day is 176.2-182. Zinc prices dropped as warehouse inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 16.2 percent from last Friday to 77,786 tonnes. Also, LME data showed a 28,500 tonne, or 41 percent, daily increase in "on-warrant" or available inventory.
Zinc prices have moved sharply higher over the past month, spurred by tight supply amid tougher Chinese environmental regulations. COPPER Copper trading range for the day is 379-386.6. Copper prices gains with encouraging import data from China and improved prospects for the global economy supporting prices. China’s imports of copper ore and concentrate rose 4.44% on a yearly basis to 1.41 million tonnes in June, China Customs reported. Total copper ore and concentrate imports were 8.28 million tonnes in the first six months of this year, a rise of 3.6% a yearly basis.
BASE METAL ✍ COPPER
-(16 - JULY - 2017 )
Copper prices edged higher by 0.21 per cent to Rs 381.65 per kg in futures trade today as traders built up fresh positions even as the metal weakened overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August inched up by 80 paise, or 0.21 per cent, to Rs 381.65 per kg in a business turnover of 455 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in November traded higher by 60 paise, or 0.16 per cent, to Rs 387.55 per kg in 2 lots. Analysts said, pick-up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly supported the upside in copper futures here but weakness in select base metals at the London Metal Exchange, capped the gains. ✍ NICKEL
(15 - JULY - 2017 )
Nickel prices were up by Rs 2.10 to Rs 598.70 per kg in futures trade today as speculators raised their bets, driven by rising demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 2.10, or 0.35 per cent, to Rs 598.70 per kg, in a business turnover of 24 lots. The metal for delivery this month too gained Rs 1.80, or 0.30 per cent to Rs 593.30 per kg in 604 lots. Analysts said the rise in nickel prices at futures trade was mostly attributed to strong demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot markets. ✍ COPPER -
(13 - JULY - 2017 )
Amid pick up in demand at domestic spot market, copper prices edged higher by 0.29 per cent to Rs 385.70 per kg in futures trade today as traders built up fresh positions. However, the metal retreated overseas on concerns over rising inventories. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month November inched up by Rs 1.10 or 0.29 per cent to Rs 385.70 per kg in business turnover of 91 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August contracts traded higher by 60 paise, or 0.16 per cent to Rs 379.85 per kg in 4,6253 lots. Analysts said pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly
supported the upside in copper futures here but weak trend in overseas markets capped the gains. Globally, copper for three-month delivery ended 0.10 per cent down at USD 5,824 per tonne at the London Metal Exchange in yesterday's trade. ✍ NICKEL
(11 - JULY - 2017 )
Nickel prices rose by 0.55 per cent to Rs 589.40 per kg in futures trade today as participants widened their bets, driven by pick up in demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in August moved up by Rs 3.20 or 0.55 per cent to Rs 589.40 per kg in business turnover of 195 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in July contracts edged up by Rs 3.10 or 0.53 per cent to Rs 584.40 per kg in 3,972 lots. Analysts attributed rise in nickel futures to building-up of positions by traders due to pick up in demand from alloy- makers in the spot market.
✍ COPPER
LME Copper prices surged 1.7 percent to close at $5926/t as supply disruption woes came to fore after
talks between the company and workers at the Zaldivar copper mine in Chile, owned by Antofagasta and Barrick Gold failed.
Also, dollar lost momentum after comments by Janet Yellen in her testimony that the rate hikes could be
gradual in case of a persistent weak inflation although she highlighted the strengths of the US economy. Besides, release of emails by the US president’s son that said the Russian government backed his father’s presidential campaign exerted pressure on the greenback.
Besides, supply disruption woes rose after talks between the company and workers at the Zaldivar
copper mine in Chile, owned by Antofagasta and Barrick Gold failed. MCX copper prices traded higher by 0.9 percent to close at Rs.383.7 per kg.
From a week perspective, we expect Copper prices to trade higher as Chinese second-quarter GDP
growth turned up at 6.9 percent, rebuffed serious concerns about economic outlook. Also, investors will keenly watch and ECB and Bank of Japan monetary policy statement due this week.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET ✍ JEERA
( 17 - JULY - 2017 )
Cumin or jeera futures touched a new high on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange due to lower crop arrival and closure of spices trading markets in Gujarat in a protest against the introduction of the goods and services tax. Contracts for delivery in July closed at Rs 202 per kg on Friday, registering a record increase of nearly 9 per cent during the week. Unjha in Gujarat's Mehsana district, the biggest cumin trading hub of Asia, was shut for several days as traders sought more time to adjust to the new indirect tax regime. This drove up the prices.Gujarat is the largest cumin producer in the country. "There was scarcity of stocks as the arrivals dropped. ✍ CARDAMOM
( 14 - JULY - 2017 )
Continuing its rising streak for the third day, cardamom prices added 0.12 per cent to Rs 1,023.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in building up positions, taking positive cues from spot market on strong demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in August gained Rs 1.20, or 0.12 per cent, to Rs 1,023.90 per kg in a business turnover of 2 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by participants, driven by pick-up in domestic as well as exports demand in the spot market, mainly kept cardamom prices higher at futures trade. ✍ CRUDE PALM OIL
( 14 - JULY - 2017 )
Falling for the second day, crude palm oil prices eased further by 0.34 per cent to Rs 472.70 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in cutting down their bets, driven by easing demand in the spot market. Crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 1.60, or 0.34 per cent to Rs 472.70 per 10 kg in business turnover of 96 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Likewise, the oil for delivery in July contracts shed Rs 1.20, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 478.50 per 10 kg in 159 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of sluggish demand in the spot market against ample stocks position mainly kept crude palm oil prices down at futures trade. ✍ MENTHA OIL
( 14 - JULY - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices edged up by 0.63 per cent to Rs 961.10 per kg in futures trading today amid pick-up in demand at domestic spot market and restricted supplies from producing regions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August went up by Rs 6, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 961.10 per kg in a business turnover of 28 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in July was trading higher by Rs 5.60, or 0.59 per cent, to Rs 949 per kg in 432 lots. Market analysts said fresh positions built up by traders following pick-up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market against restricted supplies from Chandausi, led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.
✍ COTTON - ( 13 - JULY - 2017 ) Indian cotton prices, which have remained range bound for one-and-a-half months, are expected to increase by about 3 per cent once the cotton-based yarn, fabric and textile industry, thrown out of gear post-GST, resumes work in full swing in a couple of weeks. “Cotton selling declined by about 30-40 per cent after the new tax code came into force. We hope revival in demand after the cotton-based industry comes back to normalcy,” said a Maharashtra-based ginner, who did not want to be identified Current cotton prices are ruling at about Rs 43,500 per candy and are expected to rise by about Rs 1,000/candy to Rs 1,500/candy, up by about 2.5-3.5 per cent, after the trade adjusts to GST and demand streamlines. The goods and services tax has taxed fabric, which was never taxed before, at 5 per cent. Opposing this tax, cloth traders from Surat, the main hub of synthetic cloth business in the country, have gone on strike. As a result, cotton demand from the entire value chain has declined substantially. “Mills had reduced cotton buying right from June waiting to get benefits under GST once it came into force,” said the ginner. With limited carry forward stocks of the previous year, cotton users say that the industry has been in dire straits. With cotton sowing during the ongoing kharif season expected to rise by about 20-25 per cent, industry expects comfortable cotton stocks for 2016-17. ✍ CHANA - ( 12 - JULY - 2017 ) Market regulator SEBI has lifted ban on futures trading in chana (gram) to ensure better price realisation for farmers as the country has achieved record production in 2016-17 crop year, an official said. Leading agricommodity exchange NCDEX will relaunch the chana futures contract from Friday, a top official of the commodity bourse said. Sebi in June last year had suspended introduction of any new contracts in chana to curb speculation and check prices. However, pulses prices have declined in the domestic market in view of record production at over 22 million tonnes in 2016-17 crop year (July-June), making a case for lifting of ban on chana futures. The ban has been lifted on chana futures," said a senior government official who did not wish to be identified. The NCDEX has been allowed to restart fresh chana contracts for futures trading, the official said. ✍ TURMERIC - ( 12 - JULY - 2017 ) Turmeric futures surged to 11 month-high on Wednesday on fear of deficient rains in the turmeric growing regions in the country. Moreover, the expectation of improving demand from the industrial and upcountry buyers coupled with diminishing supplies in the physical market and expectation of lower acreage support surge in turmeric prices. The benchmark turmeric contract for August delivery on the National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) went up by 8.6% to trade at Rs. 7,500 per quintal during the current week in three trading sessions. This will be sixth consecutive weekly increase if it closed higher. The contract has surged over 34 per cent in six weeks. According to India Meteorological Department, rain over turmeric growing regions in Telangana, Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra during the first 40 days of the four-month south-west monsoon has been below normal, which may have an adverse impact on the
standing turmeric crops. ✍ CARDAMOM
( 12 - JULY - 2017 )
Cardamom prices drifted lower by 1.07 per cent to Rs 1,030 per kg in futures trade today as speculators booked profits at prevailing levels amid easing demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in August fell by Rs 11.10, or 1.07 per cent to Rs 1,030 per kg in business turnover of 8 lots. Analysts said besides profit booking by participants at existing level, fall in demand against adequate stocks position, mainly led to decline in cardamom prices at futures trade. ✍ GUAR GUM
( 11- JULY - 2017 )
Guar gum prices drifted lower by Rs 150 to Rs 6,955 per quintal in futures trading today after speculators booked profits at prevailing higher levels amid a weak trend at the physical markets. Marketmen said profitbooking by traders and a steep trend at the spot markets due to fading demand against increased supplies, led to the fall in guar gum prices in futures trade here. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, guar gum for delivery in October contract dropped by Rs 150 or 2.11 per cent to Rs 6,955 per quintal, with an open interest of 42,280 lots. Guar gum for delivery this month contracts also slipped by Rs 63 or 0.94 per cent to Rs 6,669 per quintal, in an open interest of 5,040 lots. ✍ MENTHA OIL
( 11 - JULY - 2017 )
Amid pick up in demand at domestic spot market and restricted supplies from producing regions, mentha oil prices were up by 0.60 per cent to Rs 957 per kg in futures market today as participants built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August rose by Rs 5.70, or 0.60 per cent to Rs 957 per kg in business turnover of 46 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in July contracts was trading higher by Rs 5, or 0.53 per cent to Rs 944.50 per kg in 372 lots. Market analysts said fresh positions created by traders due to upsurge in demand from consuming industries in the spot market against restricted supplies from Chandausi, led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade. ✍ REFINED SOYA OIL
( 11 - JULY - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices down by 0.23 per cent to Rs 644.85 per 10 kg in futures trading today as traders cut down their bets, triggered by slackened demand at the spot markets against adequate stocks position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for August delivery contracts declined by Rs 1.50, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 644.85 per 10 kg with an open interest of 51,450 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in July month contracts weakened by Rs 1.05, or 0.16 per cent to Rs 642.45 per 10 kg in 21,620 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders following fall in demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies from producing regions mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
✍ CRUDE PALM OIL
( 11 - JULY - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices fell by 0.51 per cent to Rs 484.50 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators indulged in reducing positions, driven by easing demand in the spot markets against adequate stocks. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 2.50, or 0.51 per cent to Rs 483.50 per 10 kg in business turnover of 97 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in July contracts shed Rs 1.90, or 0.39 per cent to Rs 490.50 per 10 kg in 161 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders due to muted demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks position mainly influenced crude palm oil prices at futures trade. ✍ CARDAMOM - ( 10 - JULY - 2017 ) During current week, cardamom jumped the most among the agri-commodities followed by turmeric, mentha oil, and cotton while guar complex, jeera and coriander traded lower. Cardamom futures rose about 6.4% to 1,100 per kg on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) due to lower supplies at the auction centres during last week compared to previous week. The arrivals have been down by about 32% to 191 tonnes during week ending 2nd July as compared to 281 tonnes in the previous week. Moreover, the arrivals have been lower for the month of June to 1107 tonnes, down about 47.5% as compared to arrivals last year same month. Cardamom production is expected to be higher this season due to good rains during summer but the below normal rains in last two months in Kerala affected the crop. ✍ TURMERIC
-
( 10 - JULY - 2017 )
This week, turmeric futures at National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) jumped about Rs. 362 or 5.7% to Rs. 6,740 per quintal touching four month high due deficient rains, lower sowing area and diminishing arrivals in the physical market. Telangana, highest producing turmeric state, has received large deficient rains (-60% LPA) last week. Moreover, in Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 05-Jul-17, down 18% to 14,556 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,784 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per Agmarknet data, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. On the export front, during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period, as per the data release by government. ✍ MENTH OIL -
( 10 - JULY - 2017 )
mentha oil futures recovered during the current week amid improvement in export and physical demand as prices have plunge to 9 month low during last week. Anticipation of improved production due to higher acreage and favourable weather conditions as kept pressure on mentha oil this season. The new crop arrivals in Uttar Pradesh kept some pressure on prices till end of June. Traders anticipate prospects of improved production to above 35000 tonnes. At the MCX, mentha oil for delivery in July surge by a Rs. 39.5 or 4.43%, to Rs 930.8 per kg during the current week.
✍ COTTON
( 10 - JULY - 2017 )
MCX cotton jumped more than 3.25% to Rs. 20,680 per bale during the week despite higher production estimates by government and international cotton organizations. There is an expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on cotton is less than manmade fibers. Moreover, firm International cotton prices due to a surprising drop in crop condition in the US coupled with higher exports figure compared to last year also support prices. ✍ SOYABEAN - NCDEX soybean July futures closed higher this week by Rs. 95 or 3.33% to trade at Rs. 2,949 per quintal Investors are little bullish on anticipation that the farmers may plant less soybean due to irregular monsoon and low price realization to farmers in the last season Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 15.58 lakh hectares till last week, down about 19% on year. Last year, the acreage was 18.92 lakh hectares. Currently, Maharashtra is leading soybean acreage at 6.3 lakh hectares followed by MP at 5.7 lakh hectares. Declaration of higher MSP coupled with reports to increase import duty on edible oil keeps the prices supportive at higher levels. ✍ GUAR SEED -
( 10 - JULY - 2017 )
NCDEX guar seed and gum futures plunge about 4.7% and 5.33% this week mainly due to above normal rains in the guar cultivating areas of Rajasthan. Agriculture Department of Rajasthan in its latest kharif sowing data, reported that farmers in Rajasthan have planted guar in more than 12.2 lakh hectares at the end of first week of July, up by 100% compared to last year acreage of about 6.1 lakh hectares. ✍ JEERA -
( 10 - JULY - 2017 )
Spices such as Jeera and Coriander traded lower this week due to profit booking at higher levels while edible oil – Crude Palm oil and Ref Soyoil trade flat this week after surging higher during the last week on reports of hike in export duty for edible oil.
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