Commodity research report 18 january 2016 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

99

97.35

94.75

92.15

29 FEB 2016 316.50 309.90 303.20 300.25 296.55 293.60 289.90 283.30

276.60

DATE

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

29 JAN 2016 107.75 105.15 102.55 101.65 99.95

2029

1954

FEB 27019 26595 26171 25904 25747 25480 25323 24899

24475

29 JAN 2016 115.05 113.30 111.55 110.70 109.80 108.95 108.05 106.30

104.55

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 177.30 167.40 157.50 151.10 147.60 141.20 137.70 127.80

117.90

GOLD LEAD

19 FEB2016 05 2016

2404

2329

2254

2222

2179

2147

2104

NICKEL

29 JAN 2016 642.80 619.90

588.20 574.10 565.30 551.20 528.30

505.40

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 36068 35327 34586 34112 33845 33371 33104 32363

31622

ZINC

29 JAN 2016

108

597

105.70 103.40 102.60 101.10 100.30 98.80

96.50

94.20

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

98.65

96.60 93.45

90.30

29 FEB 2016 323.75 314.65 305.55 301.40 296.45 292.30 287.35 278.25

269.15

29 JAN 2016 109.20 106.05 102.90 101.80 99.75

19 FEB 2016 2856

1554

GOLD

05 FEB 2016 27563 26961 26359 25998 25757 25396 25155 24553

23951

LEAD

29 JAN 2016 120.90

97.20

NICKEL

216

2422

2306

2205

2089

1988

S4

1771

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016

2639

S3

117

113

111.45 109.10 107.50 105.10 101.20

194.50

173

158.80 151.50 137.30

130

108.50

87

29 JAN 2016 684.90 646.20 607.50 593.50 568.80 554.80 530.10 491.40

452.70

36778 35771 34764 34201 33757 33194 32750 31743

30736

SILVER

04 MAR 2016

ZINC

26 JAN 2016

116

110.70 105.40 103.60 100.10 98.30

94.80 89.50

84.20

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY ZINC JAN ABOVE 102 TGT 104 SL 99.95 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL CRUDEOIL JAN BELOW 2154 TGT 2306 SL 2000 - TGT ACHEIVED BUY LEAD JAN ABOVE 111.30 TGT 113.30 SL 108.85 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE

USDINR

27 JAN 2016 69

68.55

68.10

67.90

67.65

67.45

67.20

66.75

66.30

GBPINR

27 JAN 2016 75.9 75.15 0

74.45

74.15

73.70

73.40

73

72.25

71.50

EURINR

27 JAN 2016 98.6 98.15 0

97.70

97.45

97.25

97

96.80

96.35

95.90

JPYINR

27 JAN 2016 59.5 58.80 0

58.15

87.95

87.50

57.25

56.85

56.20

55.55

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

DATE

USDINR

27 JAN 2016 70.3 69.40 5

68.45

68.10

67.50

67.20

66.55

65.60

64.65

GBPINR

27 JAN 2016 78.4 76.75 0

75.10

74.55

73.50

72.95

71.85

70.20

68.55

EURINR

27 JAN 2016 100. 99.15 15

98.15

97.65

97.15

96.65

96.15

95.15

94.15

JPYINR

27 JAN 2016 61.1 59.85 5

58.60

58.15

57.35

56.90

56.05

54.80

53.50

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR JAN ABOVE 97.52 TGT 98.50 SL 96.89 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

L

SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.79 TGT 72.06 SL 73.72 - SL TRIGGERED

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

621

615

609

605

603

599

597

591

585

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 4038

3953

3868

3816

3783

3731

3698

3613

3528

4298

4239

4180

4142

4121

4083

4062

4003

3944

14006 13883 13815 13695 13505

13310

RMSEED

20 APR 20165

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 14453 14263 14073 20 APR 2016 4546

4491

4436

4408

4381

4353

4326

4271

4216

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 3671

3621

3571

3550

3521

3500

3471

3421

3371

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

CHANA

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

661

640

619

610

598

589

577

556

535

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 4272

4100

3928

3846

3756

3674

3584

3412

3240

RMSEED

20 APR 2016 4460

4348

4236

4170

4124

4058

4012

3900

3788

14155 13955 13715 13515 13075

12635

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 15278 14838 14395 20 APR 2016 4730

4612

4494

4437

4376

4319

4258

4140

4022

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 4160

3961

3762

3646

3563

3447

3364

3165

2966

CHANA

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL SOYABEAN FEB BELOW 3769 TGT 3700 SL 3840 BUY CASTORSEED FEB ABOVE 3545 TGT 3629 SL 3459 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13600 SL 14630 - MADE LOW OF 13760 BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 7940 TGT 8100 SL 7734 - SL TRIGGERED.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ GLOBAL NEWS

Alcoa Inc said on Thursday it will permanently close its 269,000 tonne-per-year Warrick Operations smelter in Evansville, Indiana, by the end of first quarter, the latest in a string of U.S. smelter curtailments as producers struggle with tumbling prices. Warrick is the largest operating aluminum smelter in the United States, and its closure will leave Alcoa with just one active smelter: 130,000 tonne-per-year Massena West, which was saved from closure with $70 million in aid from New York state.

The Indian Rupee fell to its lowest level since September ’13 and depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week mainly due to strong demand for the American currency from importers and banks. Mixed trading in the Asian markets governed the trend of the Indian markets and its currency. However, US Dollar Index’s weakness against some other currencies overseas limited the rupee’s fall. Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty closed in negative after the oil prices plunged to lower levels which heightened fears about the global economy. Moreover, disappointing release of inflation, industrial and WPI data from the nation further dented the market sentiments.

The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.8 percent in the last week as market discounted the robust release of job openings and Non-Farm Employment Change data from the nation. The number of job openings rose more than expected in November thereby infusing optimism in the market with respect to an improving labor market and strength of the economy.

✍ Gold

On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.5 percent last week to close at Rs.26112 per 10 gms ,Last week, spot gold prices declined by 1.4 percent to close at $1088.7 per ounce Prices traded to a 1-1/2-week low on Thursday, pressured by a U.S. Federal Reserve president's comments about potentially rethinking further rate hikes, triggering technical sell signals while shrugging off a rebound from 12-year lows in oil prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said a continued decline in inflation expectations may change his outlook for further Fed rate hikes, though so far he feels the United States continues on a healthy track. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he was nervous about the potential effects of China's slowdown on the U.S. economy and about the possibility that inflation expectations may be slipping India’s gold import in December 2015 is estimated to have crossed 100 tonnes following sharp increase in demand for the precious metal during the first and the last week of the month when prices fell sharply world over. With 105 tonnes of estimated imports in December, total gross import in 2015 crossed 900 tonnes which was 25 per cent more than 2014. In terms of value, it

was up about 12 per cent at around $35 billion, as December import bill was around $3.7 billion. India imported $31.17 billion worth gold in 2014. Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst, GFMS Thomson Reuters said, “Gold demand increased in December when prices were at the lowest level in 2015, and as retailers increased their inventory to optimum levels. Our estimate for December import is 107 tonnes." In 2015, just over 700 tonnes gold was net import as rest was duty-free imports for re-export after value addition. Despite sharp spurt in quantity imported, import bill went up by only 12 per cent because of low prices in international market.

Average international gold price fell by 8 per cent in 2015 while the price oscillated in a $246 range. In other words, gold prices in international market fell by nearly 20% from the annual high. The import bill low also because more imports took place when prices fell below $1,100 per ounce. On the other hand, significant increase in import of unrefined or dore gold happened at a premium pricing, which at times was a percentage over the LBMA price. Its share in total supply increased from some 15% to 30% in 2015. Mostly dore is imported at a premium over the LBMA gold PM price because of heavy competition at sourcing, given the 2 per cent differential that refiners in excise-free zone enjoy. Dore gold import in net gold purity terms was more than 200 tonnes as per estimates of GFMS Thomson Reuters. Gold import in November was 98 tonnes. In March and August 2015, gold import had crossed 100 tonnes mark as prices were lower, according to GFMS. Gold demand in the last two weeks has again remained subdued because of traditional belief that this period is inauspicious to buy precious metal. A bullion dealer said, “Indian demand for gold may or may not increase even when prices are around bottom but they take inauspicious days seriously." During 2015, there were apprehensions about gold demand from rural sector because agriculture output was impacted due to poor rains. However, according to Nambiath, “Pent up demand at lower price levels and expectation for further weakening of Indian rupee added to the gains."

Gold prices surged Rs 340 to hit over two-month high of Rs 26,550 per ten grams at the bullion market today, taking positive cues from global market amid pick up in buying by jewellers to meet wedding season demand. Silver too recovered and reclaimed the Rs 34,000-mark by rising Rs 220 to Rs 34,015 per kg on increased offtake by industrial units and coin makers. A weaker rupee, which plunged to hit fresh 28-month low of 67.59 against the dollar yesterday that made imports costlier also supported the upside in gold prices. Bullion traders said sentiment got a boost after gold gained the most in six weeks overseas as Chinese stocks fell into a bear market and the US retail sales capped the weakest year since 2009, increasing demand for precious metals. Gold in New York, which mostly determines the price trend in the Indian market, rose 0.96 per cent to USD 1,088.80 an ounce and silver gained 0.61 per cent to USD 13.91 an ounce in the yesterday's trade. Moreover, increased buying by jewellers at domestic markets, driven by wedding season also buoyed sentiment. Back home, in the national capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity surged by Rs 340 each to Rs 26,550 and Rs 26,400 per ten gram respectively, a level last seen on November 3 last year. It had shed Rs 40 yesterday. Sovereign gold followed suit and edged higher by Rs 100 to Rs 22,400 per piece of eight gram. A similar trend was also seen in silver ready that recovered by Rs 220 to Rs 34,015 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 225 to Rs 34,025 per kg. Silver coins also spurted by Rs 1,000 to Rs 49,000 for buying and Rs 50,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

� Crude Oil

On the MCX, oil prices declined by 11.1 percent to close at Rs.1996 per barrel.

Global crude benchmark Brent broke below $30 a barrel, its lowest since 2004, for a second straight day before rebounding. It also settled off the day's highs, after the U.S. State Department indicated a key Iranian nuclear reactor had been destroyed, as per conditions for lifting sanctions against Tehran's oil exports. U.S. government data showing builds in crude, gasoline and diesel supplies augmented fears that demand will stagnate as global markets contend with oversupply. Concerns about U.S. economic uncertainty also amplified the declines, the Standard and Poors 500 index dipped below 1900 for the first time since early October. Prices declined extending a selloff that amid deepening concerns about fragile Chinese demand and the absence of output restraint

Think oil in the $20s is bad? Some analysts have warned of $20 a barrel; Standard Chartered has said fund-selling may not relent until it reaches $10. But in Canada, they'd be happy to sell it for $10.Canadian oil sands producers are feeling pain as bitumen - the thick, sticky substance at the centre of the heated debate over TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL pipeline - hit a low of $8.35 on Tuesday, down from as much as $80 less than two years ago. Producers are all losing money at current prices, First Energy Capital's Martin King said Tuesday at a conference in Calgary. Which doesn't mean they'll stop. Since most of the spending for bitumen extraction comes upfront, and thus is a sunk cost, production will continue and grow. Canada will need more pipeline capacity to transport bitumen out of Alberta by 2019, King said. Bitumen is another victim of a global glut of petroleum, which has sunk US benchmark prices into the $20s from more than $100 only 18 months ago. It's cheaper than most other types of crude, because it has to be diluted with more-expensive lighter petroleum, and then transported thousands of miles from Alberta to refineries in the US.

� Copper

LME Copper prices plunged by 1.9 percent to close at $4331 per tonne as the International Copper Study Group said that copper production capacity will grow 5% annually in the next four years. This comes at a time of weak demand from China, which is currently doomed by stock markets crash and disappointing data. However, Chinese customs data showed purchases of unwrought copper and copper products in China were the second highest on record in December. Also, decline in LME stocks restricted fall.

Amid a weak trend in the global market and muted domestic demand, copper prices fell 0.44% in futures trade today. Copper for delivery in February fell Rs 1.30, or 0.44%, to Rs 295.95 per kg in a business turnover of 100 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). On similar lines, metal for delivery in far-month April shed Rs 1.20, or 0.40%, to Rs 301.30 per kg in five lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to weak global cues where industrial metals headed for the first back-to-back weekly decline since November as concerns over slowing demand in China dominated trading ahead of gross domestic product data and output figures

from the world's biggest consumer next week. Globally, copper for delivery in three months sank as much as 0.60% to $4,390.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

� Nickel

Nickel prices were up by over 1% at Rs 551.30 per kg in futures trade today on pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market amid a firm trend in base metals overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month moved up by Rs 5.60, or 1.03%, to Rs 551.30 per kg in a business turnover of 1,849 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in February gained Rs 5.30, or 0.96% to Rs 557.30 per kg in 84 lots. Market analysts said besides pick-up in domestic demand from alloy-makers, a firm trend in copper and other base metals in the global market after positive Chinese trade data that showed exports unexpectedly rose in December, led to the rise in nickel prices at futures trade here. China is the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.

� Lead

Lead prices were down by 0.54% to Rs 109.80 per kg in futures trading today due to sluggish demand from battery-makers in the spot market amid a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in February eased by 60 paise, or 0.54%, to Rs 109.80 per kg in a business turnover of three lots. Metal for delivery in January shed 45 paise, or 0.41%, to Rs 109.40 per kg in 334 lots. Market analysts said sluggish demand from batterymakers in the spot market amid a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange, mainly kept pressure on lead prices at the futures trade.

� Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell 0.45% to Rs 100.25 per kg in futures trading today with speculators indulged in cutting down their positions, taking weak cues from global markets. Furthermore, subdued demand in the domestic spot markets also weighed on the metal prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in current month shed 45 paise, or 0.45%, to Rs 100.25 per kg in a business turnover of 176 lots. Metal for delivery in February fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 100.65 per kg in eight lots. Analysts said the weakness in aluminium at futures trade was mostly in tandem with a downtrend in select base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) as concerns over slowing demand in China dominated trading ahead of gross domestic product data and output figures from the world's biggest consumer next week.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Crop insurance scheme in 2016-17 India will launch its first major crop damage insurance scheme for farmers in the fiscal year starting April 1, the Agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said on Friday, in what could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first significant move to address the distress plaguing the country's agricultural sector. The impact of unseasonal rains and two straight years of drought on agriculture that sustains over two-thirds of India's 1.25 billion people has dented Modi's popularity in the countryside, contributing to a humiliating loss for the premier in elections last year in the largely rural state of Bihar. India will launch a new farm crop insurance scheme in 2016 and use drones and other technologies to assess crop damage. 

Current cold conditions will help winter crops’ The total area sown under rabi crops is reported at 577 lakh hectare against 595 lakh hectare reported a year ago. Last week, 565 lakh hectare was under winter crops. The government is aiming to increase rabi grain production by 5% to offset an estimated 2% drop in kharif grain output and rabi sowing is expected to continue for next couple of weeks, an agriculture ministry official said. The prevalence of cold weather condition in the last couple of days that followed unusually high temperature during last few weeks is likely to help the rabi crops consisting of mostly wheat, pulses and oilseeds. According to data released on Friday, wheat has been sown in close to 29 million hectare, which is around a million hectare less than the previous year or from the normal sowing. (



Govt taking steps to meet expected shortfall in pulses: Ram Vilas Paswan Pulses production in the country is expected to be only tad higher than last year and measures are being taken to meet the demand through imports, Union Food and Consumer Affairs Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on Saturday. “… this year our production may be some more, but I think that it will remain like last year… 172 lakh tonnes, may be 175 lakh tonnes, but our demand will be around 235 lakh tonnes,” Paswan said. The added that “… unless our production is increased the problem we have to solve only through import system.” Paswan was addressing the consultation meeting of the southern region organised

by Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, aimed at enhancing the consumer advocacy efforts and issues related to consumer affairs.



Cardamom spices up Cardamom has witnessed a robust start this year. The cardamom futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has surged over 5 per cent in the first two weeks of the New Year. From being one of the worst performers in 2015, cardamom has turned out to be the best performer so far this year among the actively traded domestic commodity futures contracts. It is currently trading around ₹805 per kg.

Increase in demand well ahead of the festival season with prices ruling well below average levels of last year, is said to be the key trigger. The MCX-Cardamom futures contract had plummeted 49 per cent from its high of ₹1,190 per kg in March to record a low of ₹602.6 per kg in December last year. The sharp fall in prices was due to good rains, which resulted

in forecasts of an increase in production to over 25,000 tonnes. However, it now looks like the excess supply in the domestic market would be well absorbed in the export market.

Guatemala, the world’s largest producer of cardamom, is expected to see a 15 per cent production drop this year due to dry weather conditions and draught. Given that India is the second largest producer of cardamom in the world, a pick-up in export demand could help cardamom prices move higher.



Noting that global commodities markets are behaving in an abnormal way, Niti Aayog member Ramesh Chand today warned that the country's farm sector crisis is expected to deepen further in 2016-17 if the current trend of falling global commodities prices is not reversed.

He also pitched for more private sector involvement, reforms in land lease policy and easy market access, while emphasizing the need to train farmers with additional skills to get jobs outside farming to tide over the agricultural crisis. Indian farmers benefited from rising global food prices from 2005 till 2012, but the situation has worsened in the last two years. "In the last two years, agriculture is facing very serious problem. Surprisingly, despite lower production, we are seeing that prices are very low, lower output should ideally push up prices, but that is not happening now. There is a need to provide some income to farmers outside agricultural sector. For that, farmers need to be trained to get jobs outside farming and existing programmes like Start Up India should focus on these issues as well. Since farmers are leaving farming and not land holdings, a reform in land lease policy is required to ensure that land is put in use and facilitate tenant farmers to take up farming with adequate credit access. Observing that it was difficult to assess farmers' welfare in the absence of data on farmers income and other related issues,NSSO should publish data on farmers' income annually.

✍ Jeera

Jeera prices closed lower by 0.48 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 13,600 per quintal, down by 0.48 per cent, after opening at Rs. 13,745 against the previous closing price of Rs. 13,665. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 13,600.

According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16 (AprSep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year same period. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15. According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend compared to last year until September. Jeera exports from India are likely to decline by about 40-45 per cent to around 85,000-1,00,000 tonnes during 2015-16 compared to an estimated exports of around 1.55 lt last year. As per final estimate of Gujarat State for 201415, production is pegged at 1.97 lt higher by about 24.7 % forecasted in its fourth advance estimate of 1.58 lt. Last years’ production was 3.46 lt, down 43%.

Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin until Jan 11, 2016 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat, jeera is planted about 11% more area at 2,93,400 hectares compared to 2,64,500 hectares last year same time. As per Agmarknet data, arrivals of Jeera in Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 till Oct is lower by 217 per cent at about 1.23 lt compared to 3.9 lt last year.

✍ Chana

Chana prices closed lower by 0.21 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,861 per quintal, down by 0.21 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,880 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,871. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,861.

This year chana is sown in 3.5 per cent higher acreage at 83.67 lakh tonnes (lt), compared with 80.84 lt last year, as per data release by Agriculture Ministry on Jan 8. The acreage under chana reported higher in Maharashtra (14 lh Vs 10.6 lh), Andhra Pradesh (3.32 lh Vs 2.67 lh) and Karnataka compared to last year’s acreage but slightly lower in Rajasthan (12.35 lh Vs 12.56 lh) and MP as per data released by respective state agriculture department. India has imported 3.07 lt of Chana until September in the current financial year.

✍ Mustard seed

Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 1.17 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,374 per quintal, down by 1.17 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,447 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,426. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 4,365. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.

Mustard oil consumption has fallen over the past two to three months by almost 60%. There is a worry in the industry about the rabi crop as the winter chill, which is required for the mustard crop, is still missing. Area coverage of RM seed this year is lower by 3.5 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of Rabi 2014-15 as per latest government data release. Mustard is planted on 60.8 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, 23.7 lh has been sown as on Dec 17, compared to 24.34 lh sown last year same time. On the export front, the shipment of rapeseed meal exports plunge y/y by more than 61.4 per cent until Nov to 2.95 lt . Mustard oil prices, which had been on the upswing in the last few months, has shown a steady declining trend since December. The trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks too on hopes of a good harvest.

Though the area covered under mustard is, so far, less than 2015, industry players feel that production would be good as the standing crop is in a somewhat better condition. This should

come as good news for the government, which has, in the last few months, grappled with sudden spike in prices of onion and then pulses.Data from the department of consumer affairs shows that since December 1, retail price of a kilogram of packaged mustard oil has fallen by Rs 9 to Rs 5. (see chart) The 2015-16 mustard crop as per industry estimates is expected to be 6.14 million tonnes, up from 4.78 million tonnes last year, though the area covered is less.

According to data from the department of agriculture, till last week, 6.27 million hectares, around 200,000 hectares less than last year was covered. The area covered was less in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, but it was higher in Haryana.There is a large fluctuation in mustard’s prices during January. “In the last few days, there has been a steady decline in prices of mustard oil and the weakness will continue in the coming days too as the new mustard crop may come in the market after the second week of February. Mustard oil prices were much higher in the past few months and have had an impact on consumption, which resulted in consumers shifting to cheap edible oils, he added.

✍ Turmeric

Turmeric futures fell on Friday on reports of subdued demand by the physical market players as they are waiting for new season crop. The Apr’16 delivery contract at NCDEX closed 5.15% down w-o-w to settle at Rs 9,642 per quintal. Though there are, reports of production concern sue to drought in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. There is concern over production due to heavy rains during Nov-Dec in south India but the prices may remain little lower as trader may wait for new season crop in next one month. Deficient rainfall in during early part of sowing in major Turmeric growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka may reduce the yield.

Production, Arrivals and Exports As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports till September, 2015 pegged at 50,916 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes compared to 78,360 tonnes in FY14. As on latest sowing data, turmeric sowing In AP, is recorded at 15,864 hectares increase over last years’ acreage as well normal sowing area progress however in Telangana, the sowing area is lower than the normal sowing area at 40,823 hac compared to 43,470 hac last year.

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