Commodity research report 19 september 2017 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29- SEP-2017

136.40

135.40

134.40

133.40

132.40

131.40

130.40

129.40

128.40

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

430.20

428.20

424.20

422.20

420.20

418.20

416.20

414.20

412.20

19-SEP-17

3300

3270

3235

3219

3191

3180

3160

3140

3120

GOLD

05-OCT--2017

30500

30350

30200

29999

29907

29800

29700

29600

29500

LEAD

29- SEP-2017

153.30

152.20

151.20

150.20

149.30

148.30

147.30

146.30

145.30

NATURAL GAS

26-SEP-2017

209.90

206.10

202.20 199.90

193.10

191.10

189.10

187.10

NICKEL

29- SEP-2017

734.20

728.20

721.20

714.20

707.20

700.10

693.10

685.10

679.10

SILVER

05-JUL-2017

41999

41700

41400

41191

40911

40711

40511

40311

40111

ZINC

29- DEC-2017

198.10

197.10

196.10

195.10

194.10

193.10

192.10

191.10

190.10

CRUDE OIL

194.80

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29- SEP-2017

140.40

138.40

136.40

134.40

132.40

130.40

128.40

126.20

124.20

COPPER

30- JUN-2017

438.20

434.20 430.20

424.20

420.20

416.20

412.20

408.20

404.20

CRUDE OIL

19-SEP-17

3425

3375

3300

3235

3191

3160

3120

3080

3040

GOLD

05-OCT--2017

31100

30850

30500

30200

29907

29700

29500

29300

29100

LEAD

29- SEP-2017

157.30

155.30

153.30

151.20

149.30

147.30

145.30

143.30

141.30

NATURAL GAS

26-SEP-2017

215.9

212.90

209.90

202.20 194.80

191.10

187.10

184.10

181.10

NICKEL

29- SEP-2017

752.00

741.10

734.20

721.20

707.20

693.10

679.10

651.10

631.10

SILVER

05-JUL-2017

42999

42499

41999

41400

40911

40511

40111

39699

39499

ZINC

29- DEC-2017

202.10

200.10

198.10

196.10

194.10

192.10

190.10

188.10

186.10

Monday 18 September 2017

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-SEP-17

64.80

64.65

64.50

64.35

64.18

64.05

63.91

63.76

63.61

EURINR

27-SEP-17

77.10

76.96

76.81

76.66

76.50

76.35

76.20

76.03

75.90

GBPINR

27-SEP-17

87.70

87.50

87.30

87.10

86.90

86.70

86.50

86.30

86.10

JPYINR

27-SEP-17

57.98

57.88

57.78

57.68

57.58

57.48

57.38

57.28

57.18

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-SEP-17

65.30

65.00

64.80

64.50

64.18

63.91

63.61

63.31

63.01

EURINR

27-SEP-17

77.90

77.50

77.10

76.81

76.50

76.20

75.90

75.50

75.10

GBPINR

27-SEP-17

88.30

88.00

87.70

87.30

86.90

86.50

86.10

85.70

85.10

JPYINR

27-SEP-17

58.40

58.20

57.98

57.78

57.58

57.38

57.18

56.98

56.78

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Spot gold prices declined 2 percent last week to close at $1319.2 per ounce while MCX, gold prices declined 1.5 percent to close at Rs.29989 per 10 gms. North Korea's latest missile launch over Japan triggered safe-haven buying, but gains were limited as strong U.S. inflation data raised the spectre of another interest rate hike. Prices also declined after a European Central Bank (ECB) official called for scaling back the bank's stimulus program. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Sunday the U.N. Security Council has run out of options on containing North Korea's nuclear programme and the United States may have to turn the matter over to the Pentagon. silver prices declined 1.9 percent last week to close at $17.7 per ounce in line with decline in gold prices while weakness in base metals also led to the fall. North Korea fired a missile on Friday that flew over Japan’s northern Hokkaido far out into the Pacific Ocean, South Korean and Japan, further ratcheting up tensions after Pyongyang’s recent test of a powerful nuclear bomb. Consumer prices in the US increased 1.9% yoy in August, above 1.7% in July and expectations of 1.8%. It is the highest inflation rate in three months. While, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 14 thousand to 284 thousand in the week ended September 9th, well below market expectations of 300 thousand. The Bank of England voted by seven to two to keep the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25 percent on September 14th, 2017, as widely expected, saying estimates of private final demand were softer than anticipated, policymakers however agreed that some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over coming months in order to return inflation sustainably to target rate. Data release from China yesterday, disappointed as industrial production rose 6.0% yoy in August 2017, following a 6.4% rise in July, missing expectations of 6.6%, the weakest gain in industrial production since December. Non-farm fixed asset investment in China rose 7.8 percent year-on-year to CNY 394,150 billion in January to August of 2017, slowing from 8.3 percent rise in the first seven months of the year and missing market estimates of a 8.2 percent rise. Retail sales on the other hand rose 10.1 percent from a year earlier in August of 2017, following a 10.4 percent increase in the previous month and missing market consensus of 10.5 percent. It was the weakest gain in retail trade since February U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that if China doesn’t follow the United Nations sanctions approved on North Korea, he will seek new financial sanctions on Beijing to cut off access to the U.S. financial system. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, rose 1.2 tonnes on Monday, data from the fund showed, after three days of outflows. After gaining consecutively for three weeks on a combination of supportive factors, gold prices consolidated on expected lines. After the new sanctions against North Korea announced by the UN on Monday, the uncertainities were high and the North Korea one again lested another missile after warning earlier that if the US will impose fresh sanctions than be ready for more “gifts”. In the wake of heightened uncertiniaties we expect gold prices to remain broadly supported; however some consolation in the short term can be seen ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. In the economic agenda today retail and core

retail sales will be released from US, ahead of the next week’s FOMC policy meet.

WTI oil prices 5 percent last week to close at $49.9 per barrel while MCX oil prices rose 4.8 percent to close at Rs.3191 per barrel. The dollar weakened and after a string of reports forecast the market would tighten further as fuel demand increased. On Wednesday, the IEA said a global oil glut was shrinking thanks to strong European and U.S. demand, as well as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a build of 5.9 million barrels of crude last week, exceeding expectations.Brent is heading for a 2.6 percent gain and a third consecutive weekly rise. The rebound in the prices was also due to OPEC and its allies who are discussing extending production cuts past the end of March by more than three months as the global glut drains slower than expected. Separately, IEA said that the global oil glut was shrinking thanks to strong European and U.S. demand, as well as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries. OPEC this week forecast higher demand for its oil in 2018 and pointed to signs of a tighter global market, indicating its productioncutting deal with non-member countries is helping to tackle a supply glut. That was followed by the IEA saying the global oil glut was shrinking thanks to strong European and U.S. demand, as well as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries. BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley told Reuters in an interview that oil prices were likely to stay between $50 and $60 as major producers kept output restricted.

LME Copper prices plunged 2.8 percent last week to close at $6507/t as global risk aversion with regards to North Korea restricted risk appetite. Also, net longs in speculative positions were cut amidst falling bets on higher prices. LME data showed funds’ net long copper position at 71,827 lots, or more than 1.8 million tonnes, is down from a peak of 78,527 lots late in August but still near its highest since last December. Further, Chinese economy showed signs of cooling. China's National Bureau of Statistics data showed Industrial production grew 6% yearon-year in August, compared to a 6.4% increase in July. Fixed asset investment, or spending on infrastructure and property, rose 7.8% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year, moderating from an 8.3% increase over the January-July period. Retail sales expanded 10.1% from a year ago, slowing down from 10.4% in July. Further, inventories at the LME warehouses continued its rising spree and jumped by a whopping 46 percent in the last five sessions, pulling the cancelled warrants down from around 50 percent to below 30 percent

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW âœ? CRUDEOIL After penultimate weeks minor reversal, crude oil prices extended its gains in the previous week and ended at 3238 gaining 4.40%. On the weekly chart, the prices have breached the bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern and have closed above it. However, another resistance of the slanting trend line is at 3300 mark. If prices manage to even surpass the above-mentioned trend line of 3300 then the over trend turns positive and propel the prices till 3500 and higher. While on the lower side supports are seen at 3145 then 3070. ďƒ˜ The momentum indicator RSI has been inching higher from 46 to 53 followed with positive cross over in weekly MACD is indicating bullish strength. For the week, we expect crude prices to extend till 3310 then 3460 levels and therefore recommend buying around 3140 levels.

� GOLD After five weeks of successive gaining streak, gold prices opened slightly lower at 30200 and from there it traded on lower note and ended at 29856. Prices have exactly tumbled till the previous swing high of 29785 and ended just above that. On the other hand, it is trading in a rising trend channel and according to that the support is also at 29750. Thus, for this week 29750 holds as key support and as long as prices hold above that the positive trend remains intact whereas break down below that will extend the correction till 29300 and lower. The momentum indicator RSI is still in trading zone at 59 and MACD also remind on positive note signifying bullish strength. For the week, 29750 holds as key support and we expect gold prices to witness strong supports around these levels as major momentum indicators are still on the positive note.

Thus, we recommend buying around 29750 with stick stop loss below 29500 for targets of 30200 then 30700.

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-OCT-2017

685

682

679

677

675.00

673

671

669

667

SYBEANIDR

13-OCT-2017

3350

3300

3250

3200

3103

3050

3000

2950

2900

RMSEED

13-OCT-2017

3950

3900

3850

3820

3796

3750

3700

3650

3600

JEERAUNJHA

13-OCT-2017

20150

20000

19900

19790

19670

19550

19410

19220

19050

GUARSEED10

13-OCT-2017

3884

3834

3784

3734

3684

3634

3584

3534

3484

TMC

13-OCT-2017

7980

7880

7780

7700

7636

7536

7426

7326

7226

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-OCT-2017

699.90

691

685

679

675.00

671

667

663

657

SYBEANIDR

18-OCT-2017

3550

3450

3350

3250

3103

3000

2900

2800

2700

RMSEED

13-OCT-2017

4150

4050

3950

3850

3796

3700

3600

3500

3400

JEERAUNJHA

13-OCT-2017

20900

20500

20150

19900

19670

19410

19050

18650

18200

GUARSEED10

18-OCT-2017

4084

3984

3884

3784

3684

3584

3484

3384

3284

TMC

13-OCT-2017

8380

8180

7980

7780

7636

7426

7226

7026

6826

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW During the current week, cardamom, crude palm oil, jeera and chana traded on a positive note while guar complex, cotton and coriander traded lower.Cardamom futures is heading for its highest weekly gain in 5 months as new season arrivals have been limited affected by the dry weather in the cardamom growing regions of Kerala.Among spices, NCDEX jeera is heading for second weekly due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. NCDEX October delivery contract increase about 2% or Rs. 355 per quintal to close at Rs. 19,685.

Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1,980 tonnes compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for sam..Among spices, NCDEX jeera is heading for second weekly due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. NCDEX October delivery contract increase about 2% or Rs. 355 per quintal to close at Rs. 19,685.

Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1,980 tonnes compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for sam The most active October delivery contract of guar complex on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX), plunged to six weeks low on reports of improved weather conditions in guar producing districts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. During the current week, October guar seed on NCDEX plunge Rs. 208 or 5.37%, to trade at Rs. 3,668 per quintal, while guar gum fall Rs. 725 or 8.2% to trade near Rs. 8,110 per quintal. Moreover, market participants are expecting new season arrivals in less than a months’ time and also are worry about the export prospects for the guar gum in coming months to the US as Crude oil production likely to be affected due to recent Hurricanes.

MCX CPO closed higher last week tracking good demand in the physical market and also helped by recent surge in international prices. The prices were also supported due to increase in tariff value for Crude palm oil and higher import duty also supports prices. The base import price of refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil has been increased by $49 a tn to $750 a tn and that of crude soyoil has been raised by $16 a tn to $851 per tn. Recently government raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from 7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15%. According to SEA release, during November-August period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes from 46.70 lakh tonnes during the same period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil fell further on Friday from a six-month high, as strong export figures cushioned the dampening effects of a rise in export tax for October. The increase of crude palm oil export tax for October from 5.5% to 6% weighed on the sentiment. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said palm exports for Sept. 1-15 rose 22.2% compared to Aug. 1-15. Palm prices expected to fall in coming months as overseas exports from south Asian countries slows during the winter. Countries such as China and Europe normally reduce their intake of palm oil in winter months as

the tropical product solidifies in cold temperatures.

NCDEX Soybean Oct futures closed slightly higher last week on bargain buying by the market participants as new season soybean has started to arrive in the physical market. As per Agmarknet data, soybean arrivals during the first 15 days is pegged at 1.58 lakh tonnes compared to 1.24 lakh tonnes in August same period. As per the agri ministry data, India's soybean acreage was at 10.6 million ha as on last week, down 7.8% from a year ago. The fall in overall acreage has been led by a decline in area under the crop in Madhya Pradesh--the largest producer--because of poor rains in the state so far this monsoon season. CBOT November futures fell on Friday on profit-taking but still recorded a fourth straight weekly advance, supported by firm physical market and export demand. The USDA announced a private export sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. The NOPA Crush report today showed August crush at 142.424 million bushels, 1.59% lower than July but 8.04% larger than August 2016. That was well above most analysts estimates.

Moreover, US soybean acreage for 2018 estimated to decrease by 0.5% by Informa to 89.057 million acres Sugar Futures closed unchanged last week but the trend is looking positive on anticipation of good festival demand and reports that country may see tight supplies despite a 20% rise in output expected in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep), as ending stocks are seen tumbling to multi-year lows. Moreover, imposing stock limits on sugar mills government is likely to allow import of 300,000 tn of raw sugar at 25-30% import duty. October raw sugar closed higher for the last week as Unica data on Tuesday showed mills turning a lower proportion of cane into sugar, 46.95%,in the second half of August – down from a figure above 50% in the first half. Weather in India, the world's secondbiggest sugar producer, is positive for production as good recent rains in central areas will further ease dryness in support of cane growth NCDEX Jeera for Oct delivery recorded second weekly due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating a diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. Jeera exports have been lower than anticipated during the first quarter of new financial year 2017/18. The arrivals have been lower during the first 15 days of September at 3,625 tonnes compared to 3,923 tonnes in August for same period. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. However, as per government data, Jeera exports during first quarter in FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jun) is 41,707 tonnes, down 10.8% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Turmeric futures for October delivery closed lower for the week due to balanced demand and supplies coupled with improved rains in Turmeric growing areas during week ending 6th September. As per the data release by government, the exports during the first quarter of FY 2017/18 is down 10% to 33,323 tonnes, compared to last year exports volume for the same period. The production estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015/16. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 13th Sep, down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares.

MCX Cotton futures recorded their first weekly loss after three consecutive weekly gains tracking weak

international prices and higher acreage in the country Moreover, arrival of new season cotton also pressurizes prices. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, The area under cotton across the country was at 121.5 lakh ha as on last week, up nearly 19% on year. ICE cotton futures settled lower on Friday to post a weekly decline of over 7 percent, the December 2017 contract's biggest weekly fall, after a U.S. government report this week raised its projections for a big crop. USDA Export Sales report indicated a MY low in weekly 17/18 sales of all upland cotton. There were 65,216 RB of old crop upland cotton sold during the week of Sep 9, with 26,400 RB of new crop sales reported to Pakistan. Export shipments also came in at a MY low at 108,523 RB, 13.11% behind last year. CFTC data shows spec traders with a net long position of 70,284 contracts in cotton futures and options contracts as of Tuesday. That is an increase of 14,104 contracts from the previous week and just in time to be hammered by the post-report sell off.

Mustard Oct futures closed lower last week on profit booking by the market participants due to steady physical demand and good carryover stocks from last season. There is an anticipation of good demand from the oil millers in coming weeks on good crushing demand because of improved mustard meal exports in first 5 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 216,258 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 122% higher on year. India's mustard meal exports for the month of July also rose 56.4% on year to 50,649 tonnes as per SEA data. As per SEA recent data, mustard oil imports for period Nov-July down 23% to 1.94 lt in current oil year compared to 2.55 lt in the previous year. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 450,000 tn of mustard seed in August, down over 18% from the previous month.

Besides, slowdown in exports of castor derivatives mainly Indian castor meal resulted downtrend in castor seed futures However, castor seed physical market witnessed a uptrend during the yesterday’s trade on improvement of crushing demand Commodity prices went up by avg. Rs.10-20 to Rs.4420-4565 per quintal at Deesa Lakhni on Thursday’s trade on increased demand from crushing units amid increased supplies of 6000-6500 quintals At Siddhpur market, castor seed price traded in the range of Rs.44004625 per quintal, up by avg. Rs.25-50 amid increased supplies of 2700-2750 quintals Similar trend was reported at Tharad market, castor seed prices traded in the range of Rs.4555-4550/quintal, up by avg.

Rs15 amid increased supplies of 2500-2550 quintals, which is up 750 quintals As on 13th Sept, total 48,438 tons castor seeds are available at NCDEX approved warehouses, which is increased by 1581 tons compared to prior day whereas 3400 tons was in process Guar area in Rajasthan is forecast at 31.7 lakh hectares, down 10 % compared to last year area of 35.3 lakh hectares. While in Gujarat, the guar acreage forecasted down by 10% as on 11th Sep to 1.98 lakh hectares as compared to last year acreage. According to market sources, acreage in Haryana is lower as farmers have shifted to cotton due to better remuneration. Moreover, the exports of guar gum for the first quarter of 2017/18 is higher by 69.7% at 1.78 lakh tonnes compared to 1.05 lakh tonnes last year.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW In the last week, Soy bean prices opened at 3080 and rose till the high of 3150, but it failed to hold and finally ended at 3104. Prices are moving trading within the rising trend channel and supports of the same are seen at 3050 mark. Prices are trading near the lower band supports of the channel and as long as it holds above 3050 the upside potential remains intact. For the week, the resistances are seen at 3180 then 3280 levels. The momentum indicator RSI has slipped slightly lower from 64 to 55 and while the MACD continued to remained firm. For the week, we expect soybean price are likely to trade higher and recommend buying around 3080 levels for targets of 3180 then 3250.

After last weeks of consolidating, turmeric prices remained on a subdued note and ended with minor loses in the last week at 7630. Turmeric prices have failed to surpass the immediate high of 7920 and have been consolidating in a narrow range. On the other hand, it is trading below the trend line making double top formation. For the week, the immediate support is at 7440, break below that will provide sharply correction till 7050 then 6850 levels. The momentum indicator RSI and MACD are also moving on subdued note. ďƒ˜ Going forward, if turmeric prices breached below 7440 then a correction can be seen till 7050 levels thus we recommend selling on break of 7440 for the targets of 7200 then 7050.

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