Commodity research report 21 september 2015 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL GOLD

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

110

109

108

107

106

105

104

103

102

30 NOV 2015 355

354

353

352

351

349

348

347

346

21 SEP 2015 3100 3080

3060

3040

3020

3000

2980

2960

2940

26700

26600

26500

26400

26300

30 SEP 2015

05 OCT 2015

2700 26800 0

2620

26100

0

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

115

114

113

112

111

110

109

108

107

NATURAL GAS

25 SEP 2015

177

175

173

172

170

168

166

164

162

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

670

665

660

655

650

645

640

635

630

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 3660 36400 0

36300

36200

36000

35900

35800

35700

35600

112

111

110

109

108

107

106

ZINC

30 SEP 2015 114

113

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 SEP 2015

30 SEP

113

111

109

107

105

103

101

99

COPPER

30 NOV 2015

31 AUG

358

356

354

352

350

348

346

344

CRUDE OIL

21 SEP 2015 212015

21 SEP

3160

3120

3080

3040

3000

2960

2920

2880

GOLD

05 OCT 2015

05 OCT

27300

27900

26700

26600

26300

26200

26000

25800

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

30 SEP

119

117

115

113

111

109

107

105

NATURAL GAS

25 SEP 2015

30 NOV

181

179

176

173

170

167

165

163

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

30 SEP

685

675

665

655

645

635

625

615

SILVER

04 DEC 2015

04 DEC

37300

36900

36600

36300

36000

35800

35500

35200

ZINC

30 SEP 2015

30 SEP

118

116

114

112

110

108

106

104

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

610

597

584

577

571

564

558

545

532

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3407

3342

3277

3244

3212

3179

3147

3082

3017

RMSEED

20 OCT 2015

4394

4344

4294

4264

4244

4214

4194

4144

4094

JEERAUNJHA

20 OCT 2015

16826 16506

16186

16008

15866 15688 15546 15226

14906

CHANA

20 OCT 2015

4893

4772

4651

4608

4530

4487

4409

4288

4167

CASTORSEED

20 OCT 2015

4335

4260

4185

4156

4110

4081

4035

3960

3885

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

618

602

586

578

570

562

554

538

522

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3478

3389

3300

3256

3211

3167

3122

3033

2944

RMSEED

20 OCT 2015

4581

4475

4369

4302

4263

4196

4157

4051

3945

JEERAUNJHA

20 OCT 2015

17376 16876

16376

16103

15876 15603 15376 14876

14376

CHANA

20 OCT 2015

5401

5089

4777

4671

4465

4359

4153

3841

3529

CASTORSEED

20 OCT 2015

4599

4445

4291

4209

4137

4055

3983

3829

3675

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS

PRECIOUS METAL � GOLD Gold rose to a two-week high on Friday as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave US interest rates unchanged weighed on the dollar and added to uncertainty over the timing of the first rate hike in a decade. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at $1,136.06 an ounce, having earlier touched $1,138.80, keeping it on track to snap a three-week losing streak.

Gold dropped from a two-week high on Friday, giving back some of the sharp gains from the last two days, as the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady this week added to uncertainty over the timing of an eventual rate hike.Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,127.70 an ounce at 0641 GMT, after climbing to a two-week high of $1,133.20 in the previous session.

Still, the metal was on track to snap a three-week losing streak with a near 2-percent gain.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in a bow to worries about the global economy, financial market volatility and sluggish inflation at home. But the US central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike sometime this year.Gold had been weighed down all year on uncertainty over when the Fed would hike interest rates from record-lows. Higher rates could dent demand for non-interest paying bullion, while boosting the dollar.

Weakness in the dollar and stock markets could prompt a rally in gold prices in the near term but the gains are unlikely to last, "Because the Fed has made clear that it intends to raise rates by year-end, the markets will eventually start bidding the dollar higher and we could see gold's up move to be relatively short-lived," he said. The Fed on Thursday also forecast inflation would creep only slowly toward its 2 percent target, which one bullion trader said was a negative for gold, often seen as an inflation-hedge. The Fed is due to hold two more policy meets this year, in October and December. A majority of Wall Street's top banks now expect the Fed to begin hiking rates in December, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday.The dollar nursed losses on Friday after slumping to a three-week low against a basket of major currencies in the previous session.Physical demand from Asia wasn't offering much support to gold prices.Gold discounts in India, the world's second-biggest consumer, widened this week as dealers struggled to offload stocks amid sluggish demand.Chinese premiums held steady at $5-$6 despite the overnight jump in prices, but failed to boost global prices.

✍ SILVER MCX Silver July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 37,923 levels and at the same day it made a low of 37,549 levels. Late on as expected prices could not able to sustain on lower levels and rallied sharply towards the weekly high of 40,130 levels. This week prices have closed above the previous week’s closing of 37,935 levels and finally closed 5.31% higher at 39,951 levels. Technically prices have formed “Big Bullish candlestick” which indicates further strength.

For the next week we expect silver prices to find support in the range of 39,000 – 39,200 levels.

Trading consistently below 39,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 38,200 levels and then finally towards the major support at 37,500 levels. Resistance is now observed in the range of 40,800 – 41,000 levels. Trading consistently above 41,000 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 41,600 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 42,500 levels.

ENERGY ✍ CRUDE OIL Crude Oil prices dipped early on Friday on fresh signs the Middle East will continue to prioritize market share over prices, while the United States kept interest rates at historic lows on worries over the health of the global economy.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $46.70 per barrel at 0049 GMT, down 20 cents from their last settlement. Brent prices were little changed at $49.14 per barrel.Kuwait, a key producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Thursday that the oil market would balance itself but that this would take time, indicating support for the producer group's policy of defending market share despite falling prices. This view was confirmed by sources at OPEC who said they expected oil prices to rise by no more than $5 a barrel a year to reach $80 by 2020, with a slowing in rival non-OPEC production growth not enough to absorb the current oil glut. The lower prices came despite the US Fed keeping interest rates at historic lows. weaker dollar would provide some support to crude prices, as it makes dollar-traded crude cheaper for countries using other currencies."With the Fed on hold and a weaker dollar, support should return to commodity markets," ANZ bank said.Some traders disagreed. "It's the Fed's thinking behind holding rates that spooked us more than the impact of a weaker dollar. They kept rates low because they worry about the health of the global economy. That makes me worry about global oil demand.

BASE METAL � COPPER Amid a weak trend in the global market and easing spot demand, copper prices fell 0.65% to Rs 361.10 per kg in futures trade today. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November shed Rs 2.35, or 0.65%, to Rs361.10 per kg in a business turnover of 2,105 lots.The metal for delivery in far-month February next year traded lower by Rs 2.15, or 0.58%, to Rs 366.90 per kg in 44 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after the Federal Reserve's delay in increasing interest rates signal led concerns over rising international risks and the recent market turmoil. Globally, copper for delivery in three months fell 0.9% to $5,340 at LME.

� LEAD Lead futures traded 0.22% higher at Rs 113.55 per kg, supported by a firming trend at the domestic spot markets following pick up in demand from consuming industries even as metal weakened overseas.

At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month was up 25 paise or 0.22%to Rs 113.55 per kg in a business turnover of 528 lots.Lead for delivery in October was trading 15 paise, or 0.13% higher at Rs 114.60 per kg in 11 Lots.

Market men said rising demand at domestic spot markets from battery-makers influenced lead prices in futures trade but metal's weakness overseas, capped the gains

� ZINC Zinc futures rose 0.35% to Rs 114.40 per kg as participants built up positions amid a rising trend in metal overseas and better domestic demand.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery this month was up by 40 paise, or

0.35%, to Rs 114.40 per kg in 827 lots.

Metal for delivery in October also rose by a similar margin to Rs 115.65 per kg, with a business turnover of 52 lots.Market men said besides a firming trend at the domestic spot market, strength in metal at the London Metal Exchange drove the upside in zinc prices.

� NICKEL Nickel futures prices today dropped 0.87% to Rs 663 per kg as speculators locked in gains amid a weak trend overseas. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel prices for delivery in September dropped Rs 6.40, or 0.87%, to Rs 663 per kg in a business turnover of 332 lots. Metal prices for delivery in October contracts fell Rs 5.70, or 0.84%, to trade at Rs 670.80 per kg in a turnover of 28 lots.

Market analysts said besides profit-booking,a weak trend in base metals overseas and worries over China's economic slowdown kept pressure on nickel futures.

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Government to adopt Gujarat-model of irrigation Seeking to carry forward the Gujarat-model of irrigation reform in the country and to quickly complete the task of aquifer mapping to quantify available groundwater resources, the Centre has constituted a seven-member committee to restructure the central water commission (CWC) and the central ground water board (CGWB) - the two key central bodies that manage water resources in India.

The committee, headed by ex-planning commission member Mihir Shah, has been asked to submit its report in three months so that government can make a policy framework to utilize available water resources in the country in a better way.

NCDEX imposes special margin on Chana To curb speculation, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) last week imposed an additional special margin on chana. The margin is effective Tuesday. For all chana contracts, the exchange levied an additional margin of five per cent (in cash) on both buying and selling, as well as a special margin of 10 per cent (in cash) on buying. Following this, the overall cash margin on buying is 25 per cent, while that for selling is five per cent.

On Monday, chana contracts declined four per cent and hit the lower circuit on the NCDEX. October chana contracts were down 3.99 per cent to Rs 4,374/100 kg.The sentiment was dull in

physical markets, too, with demand declining. Fall of Rs 550/100 kg, or about 10 per cent is witnessed , in spot markets in the past week and the demand is still not encouraging.Of late, chana prices in the spot and futures market have seen excessive short-term volatility. During July 1-September 3, spot prices increased 13 per cent, while the futures prices for the September and October contracts increased nine per cent. In the beginning of August, chana prices stood at Rs 4,500/100 kg, before exceeding Rs 5,000/100 kg in the beginning of September.But after NCDEX took various regulatory steps, the prices started declining last week. Meanwhile, NCDEX has clarified the final expiry date for chana will be seven months.

✍ SOYABEAN The world’s two biggest trading partners in agriculture boosted their soybean business before meeting face to face next week.Exporters from the U.S., the top producer, reported sales of 482,500 metric tons of the oilseed in two days to China, the largest consumer. That precedes a visit to the U.S. by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his trade delegation. The Asian nation’s imports from around the world soared 35-fold since 1997 as the economy boomed.

The U.S. is the most attractive source of soybeans currently with prices about $10 a ton below rival Brazil, said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president at Chicago-based Linn & Associates, a commodity analyst and broker. U.S. government data show that exports to China in the 12 months that started Sept. 1 trail the 2014 pace by 53 percent after the Asian nation increased shipments from the South American country in July.

“U.S. soybeans are the cheapest available until March because Brazil is focused on exporting corn after record soybean shipments to China earlier this year.U.S. shippers probably will agree to sell 4 million to 5 million tons to China during the trade delegation’s visit, mirroring accords in previous years, . These sales carry no specific hipping dates or price and usually are part of the annual trade.

✍ JEERA Jeera prices closed lower by 1.1 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for September 2015 contract closed at Rs. 15,315 per quintal, down by 1.1 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,410 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,485. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 15,300.

� CASTORSEED Castor seed prices rose by 0.3 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the rise in demand from consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for September 2015 contract were trading at Rs. 4,075 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.3 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,070 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,063.

� RM SEED Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.19 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for September 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,266 per quintal, down by 0.19 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,276 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,274. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,266 Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.

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