Commodity research report 23 november 2015 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 NOV 2015 102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

94

COPPER

30 NOV 2015 325

323

321

319

317

315

313

311

309

CRUDE OIL

19 NOV 2015 2760 2740

2720

2700

2680

2660

2640

2620

2600

GOLD

04 DEC 2015 2570 25700 2015 0

25600

25550

25500

25450

25400

25350

25300

LEAD

30 NOV 2015 110. 109.30 30

108.30

107.30

106.30

105.30

104.30

103.30

102.30

162

160

158

156

154

152

150

148

642

637

632

627

622

617

612

607

NATURAL GAS 24 NOV 2015 164 NICKEL

30 NOV 2015 647

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 3440 34300 0

34200

34100

34000 33900

39800

33700

33600

ZINC

30 NOV 2015 110. 109.50 50

108.50

107.50

106.50

105.50

104.50

103.50

102.50

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

ALUMINIUM

30 NOV 2015 106.20 103.15

100.10

98.40

97.10

95.35

94

91

87.90

COPPER

30 NOV 2015 356.80 340.35

323.90

313.75

307.45 297.30

291

274.55

258.10

3037

2919

2847

2801

2729

2683

2565

2447

GOLD

04 DEC 2015 27620 26855

26090

25690

25325

24925

24560

23795

23030

LEAD

30 NOV 2015 115.80 112.20

108.60

106.70

105

103.10

101.40

97.80

94.20

NATURAL GAS 24 NOV 2015 197.40 187.20

176.90

170.20

166.60 159.90

156.30

146

135.70

CRUDE OIL

18 DEC 2015 3155

NICKEL

30 NOV 2015 727

685.90

644.80

618.70

603.70 577.60

562.60 521.50

480.40

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 36540 35641

34742

34286

33843

33387

32944

32045

31146

30 NOV 2015 129.10

110.90

105.70

101.80

96.55

98.70

83.60

74.50

ZINC

120


WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25261 TGT 24963 SL 25571 (SELL ON RISE)

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25500 TGT 25200 SL 25803 (TGT ACHEIVED)

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26 DEC 2015 67.1 66.95 0

66.75

66.65

66.60

66.50

66.40

66.20

66.05

GBPINR

26 DEC 2015 72..0 5

71.55

71.40

71.25

71.15

71

70.75

70.50

EURINR

26 DEC 2015 102. 102.30 65

102

101.85

101.70

101.55

101.35

101.05

100.70

JPYINR

26 DEC 2015 54.6 5

54.35

54.25

54.15

54.10

54

53.85

53.70

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

71.80

54.50

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

USDINR

26 DEC 2015 67.8 67.40 0

67

66.80

66.60

66.40

66.20

65.80

65.40

GBPINR

26 DEC 2015 73.5 72.75 5

72

71.60

71.20

70.85

70.45

69.65

68.90

EURINR

26 DEC 2015 104. 103.75 90

102.55

102.15

101.40

101

100.20

99.05

97.90

JPYINR

26 DEC 2015 56.4 55.65 0

54.90

54.55

54.10

53.75

53.35

52.60

51.85

WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 100.45 TGT 99.85 SL 101.10

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL JPYINR NOV BELOW 53.90 TGT 53.40 SL 54.40 (MADE LOW OF 53.51)


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015

616

607

598

593

589

584

580

571

562

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015

3937

3897

3857

3834

3817

3794

3777

3737

3697

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015

4983

4862

4741

4660

4620

4539

4499

4378

4257

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015

16195 15990

15785

15675

15580 15470 15375 15170

14965

CHANA

18 DEC 2015

5737

5581

5425

5321

5269

5165

5113

4957

4801

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015

4445

4317

4189

4122

4061

3994

3933

3805

3677

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 2015

640

624

608

598

592

582

576

560

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 4244 2015

4097

3950

3881

3803

3734

3656

3509

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 5296 2015

5081

4866

4723

4651

4508

4436

4221

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 17515 2015

16815

16115

15840 15415 15140 14715

14015

CHANA

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 6102 2015

5822

5542

5379

5262

5099

4980

4702

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015 18 DEC 5001 2015

4706

4411

4233

4116

3938

3821

3526

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 15900 TGT 16200 SL 15450 BUY DHANIYA DEC ABOVE 15550 TGT 15750 SL 15340

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL DHANIYA DEC BELOW 9700 TGT 9500 SL 9903 (NOT EXECUTED)


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ PRECIOUS METAL • Nickel smelter developers are putting projects on hold as they struggle to get financing with metal prices near their lowest in more than a decade, industry and government stakeholders said on Wednesday.

• New U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week while a gauge of U.S. economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a healthy labor market and economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month.

• Commodity prices could see another sharp drop as an adjustment in supplies from energy, metals and agricultural producers remains insufficient in the face of weaker demand at key consumers like China, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs said.

GOLD Extending gains for the third straight day, gold prices advanced by 0.27% to Rs 25,530 per 10 grams in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions, taking positive cues from overseas markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month February next year gained Rs 68, or 0.27%, to Rs 25,530 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 23 lots.In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in December traded higher by Rs 56, or 0.22%, to Rs 25,347 per 10 grams in 1,077 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in gold futures to a firming global trend where it held an advance from a five-year low as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that US policy makers have done their best to prepare international markets for the first interest rate increase since 2006. Meanwhile, gold rose 0.35% to $1,085.60 an ounce in Singapore. In the international market, gold fell 0.88%, to $1,145.50 an ounce in New York yesterday. Gold continued to witness a massive sell off. The yellow metal settled at its lowest price this year, nearing the $1200 per ounce mark and logged its third straight weekly decline. Other precious metals also dropped heavily amid soaring equities and continued strength in the US dollar. Silver tumbled to a four year low, Platinum fell to a fresh 2014 lows while palladium slumped to a three-month low. Gold fell as the US dollar rallied post the Fed decision where it noted that that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. Spot gold firmed on Friday but was still set to finish the week trapped near its cheapest in more than five years as the metal struggles against a stronger dollar ahead of a widely expected US rate rise next month."We're still negative and target $985 in the short run," said analyst Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong. "The rationale is fairly clear. The Fed is going to hike, the dollar is going to see further strength and in that environment it's going to be fairly difficult to sustain current prices."A stronger dollar


hurts demand for commodities priced in the greenback by making them costly for holders of other currencies. Spot gold had edged up by 0.4% to $1,085.80 an ounce by 0609 GMT. Prices hit the weakest in more than five years at $1,064.95 an ounce on Wednesday and are set to close the week little changed. US gold rose 0.7% to $1,086 an ounce. New US applications for unemployment benefits fell last week while a gauge of US economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a healthy economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month. The dollar steadied on Friday after a recent rally that took the greenback to 7-month highs against a basket of peers. Gold could come under further pressure from news that Chinese banks were turning more cautious on gold lending.

SILVER Silver was up 0.4 percent at $14.23 an ounce. New U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week while a gauge of U.S. economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a healthy labor market and economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month. Other data on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region picked up slightly in November after two straight months of declines, another indication that the worst of the manufacturing rout was probably over.

LEAD Lead prices edged up by 0.48% to Rs 105.30 per kg in futures trading today as traders built up fresh bets due to pick up in demand in the domestic spot market. At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in November month moved up by 50 paise, or 0.48% to Rs 105.30 per kg in business turnover of 312 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in December contracts traded higher by 40 paise, or 0.38% to Rs 106.30 per kg in 6 lots. Market analysts said fresh positions built-up by participants after pick up in demand from battery-makers in the spot market, mainly influenced lead prices at futures trade.

NICKEL Continuing its losing streak for the third straight day, nickel prices shed another 0.59% to Rs 589.10 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in reducing their positions, triggered by a weakening global trend. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in November declined by Rs 3.50, or 0.59% to Rs 589.10 per kg in a business turnover of 1,699 lots.On similar lines, the metal for delivery in December traded lower by Rs 3.20, or 0.53%, to Rs 595.60 per kg in 159 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in nickel futures to a weakening global trend where it tumbled to the lowest level in more than a decade as stainless-steel output in China slows amid forecasts for the weakest economic growth in a generation. Meanwhile, nickel for delivery in three-month dropped 1.7% to $8,800.00 a metric tonne, the lowest since July 2003 on the London Metal Exchange (LME).


ALUMINIUM Aluminium prices eased by 0.16% to Rs 96.50 per kg in futures trade today as participants reduced their positions amid weak global cues. Besides, subdued demand in the domestic spot markets weighed on aluminum prices.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in November month weakened by 15 paise, or 0.16% to Rs 96.50 per kg in business turnover of 324 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in December contract was trading lower by a similar margin to Rs 98.10 per kg in 21 lots. Market men said the weakness in aluminium at futures trade was mostly in tune with a weak trend in global markets. Globally, aluminium for delivery in three month fell 0.3% at the London Metal Exchange, while in Shanghai Futures Exchange it slumped to its lowest since at least 2004. Meanwhile, government is considering raising import duty on aluminium products by as much as 5%,among other policy measures, to tackle the unabated import of cheap products that is adversely impacting the sector.

ENERGY Oil futures settled steady on Thursday while U.S. crude fell ahead of the expiry of the front-month contract and continued pressure from large inventory builds. A weaker dollar and stronger refining margins for gasoline, which could prompt refiners to turn more crude into the motor fuel, helped limit the downside in crude. While a global glut was weighing on crude in general, Brent's outlook on Thursday was less bearish compared with WTI, after data the previous day showed an eighth straight week of builds in U.S. crude stockpiles. WTI's weakness has been also demonstrated by the growing discount between the front month to forward contracts as traders stored more crude in the hope of delivering at higher prices later. Goldman Sachs said there remained a

U.S. natural gas futures fell 3 percent on Thursday as the psychological impact of having a record-high four trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas in storage set in, despite forecasts for cooler weather expected to boost heating demand over the next two weeks. U.S. utilities added 15 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended Nov. 13, just shy of analysts' estimates in a Reuters poll for a build of 18 bcf. That brought the total amount of gas in storage to a record-high four tcf and was the first build during the second week of November since 2011. It compared with a revised increase of 54 bcf in the prior week, a withdrawal of 9 bcf in the same week a year ago and a five-year average draw of 12 bcf. The U.S. and European weather models both continue to forecast lower-than-normal temperatures through early December.


� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Agri markets traded with moderate volatility but sentiments overall remained slightly positive. Upside movement was limited in few commodities, because of regular profit taking.Turmeric rebounded sharply from lower support levels as buyers once again considered the long term bullish story, with prices showing a significant decline on Monday and Tuesday. Guar kept trading weak on falling exports amidst weak tone in Crude oil prices; Kapas was firm on expected rise in export demand in coming weeks. No major activity was noted in oilseed complex.

CHANA Chana prices were down 1.03% to Rs 5,075 per quintal in futures trade on Thursday as participants reduced exposure, triggered by higher supplies from producing regions at the spot markets.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December eased by Rs 53, or 1.03%, to Rs 5,075 per quintal with an open interest of 56,850 lots.On similar lines, the commodity for delivery in January 2016 traded lower by Rs 19, or 0.39%, to Rs 4,829 per quintal in 24,730 lots. Fall in chana prices to higher supplies from producing belts against weak trend at spot markets on fall in demand at prevailing levels.

TURMERIC Turmeric spot prices at the Nizamabad market were at Rs 10500 per quintal for finger variety and Rs.10300 for root variety on Thursday. Future prices witnessed volatility during Thursday’s trading hours. However, futures prices resumed their uptrend backed by good domestic demand and tight supply at the spot front. Demand from turmeric exporters also added to the upside in turmeric prices The stock position of turmeric at NCDEX-accredited warehouses as of 17 November 2015 was reported at 6864 metric tonnes Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a positive note during Friday’s trading hours. Good domestic off take noticed at the Nizamabad market to meet the upcoming winter season demand. Moreover, good seasonal demand and lower carryover stock supports the yellow spice to trade high. The recent rainfall in Tamil Nadu slightly helps the standing crop. According to the derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have increased on Thursday. It is an indication that the market is attracting large numbers of traders, who are willing to open positions from the long side and hold them.

CASTOR SEED Castor seed futures traded lower on NCDEX due to higher supply in the major mandies against weak demand at the spot market. Further, strong production estimates from the major producing belts too added pressure on castor seed prices. The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 4115.00, down by 0.77% or Rs 32.00


from its previous closing of Rs 4147.00.The open interest of the contract stood at 1320 lots.The contract for December delivery was trading at Rs 4182.00, down by 0.62% or Rs 26.00 from its previous closing of Rs 4208.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 247480 lots on NCDEX.

JEERA NCDEX platform jeera futures traded and settled the day positively. The total daily arrivals at Unjha market reported at around 3500 bags. Jeera spot prices at the Unjha market remained unchanged at Rs 15150 per quintal on Thursday. Emergence of export demand at the spot front amid lower arrivals supported the positive movement in jeera prices. Stock position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on17 November 2015 is 6525 MT

Jeera prices closed higher by 0.42 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for November 2015 contract closed at Rs. 15,600 per quintal, up by 0.42 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,575 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,535. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 15,660. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries. According to the derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have increased on Thursday. It is an indication that the market is attracting large numbers of traders, who are willing to open positions from the long side and hold them.

MUSTARD SEED Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.8 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for November 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,710 per quintal, down by 0.8 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,772 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,748. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,691. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.


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