Commodity Research Report 24 august 2015 Ways2Capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 AUG 2015 106

105

103

102

101

100

99

98

96

COPPER

31 AUG 2015 359

351

343

340

335

332

327

319

311

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2015 2964 2877

2790

2737

2703

2650

2616

2529

2442

GOLD

05 OCT 2015 2857 28098 7

27619

27429

27140

26950

26661

26182

25703

LEAD

31 AUG 2015 120

117

115

114

112

111

109

106

103

25 SEP 2015

196

191

186

183

181

178

177

172

167

NICKEL

31 AUG 2015 738

716

694

684

672

662

650

628

606

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3953 38430 4

37326

36763

36222

35659

35118

34014

32910

121

119

117

115

114

110

107

NATURAL GAS

ZINC

31 AUG 2015 127

124

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 AUG 2015

108

106

103

102

101

100

99

96

94

COPPER

31 AUG 2015

369

357

345

340

333

328

321

309

297

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2015

3308

3125

2942

2848

2759

2665

2576

2393

2210

GOLD

05 OCT 2015 29583 28564

27545

27197

26526

26178

25507

24488

23469

LEAD

31 AUG 2015

127

122

117

114

111

109

106

101

96

NATURAL GAS

25 SEP 2015

204

197

190

187

183

180

176

169

162

NICKEL

31 AUG 2015

756

732

708

693

684

669

660

636

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 41294 39447

37600

36954

35753

35108

33906

32059

30212

123

120

118

116

113

108

103

ZINC

31 AUG 2015

132

127

612


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

584

580

576

573

572

569

568

564

560

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3272

3225

3178

3151

3131

3104

3084

3037

2990

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4422

4375

4328

4306

4281

4259

4234

4187

4140

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

18151 17541

16931

16563

16321 15953 15711 15101

14491

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

4882

4813

1744

4701

4675

4632

4606

4537

4468

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4264

4205

4146

4109

4087

4050

4028

3969

3910

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

606

594

582

577

570

565

558

546

534

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3407

3316

3225

3175

3134

3084

3043

2952

2861

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4619

4490

4361

4305

4232

4176

4103

3974

3845

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

19638 18448

17258

16786

16068 15596 14898 13688

12498

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

5321

5108

4895

4794

4682

4581

4469

4256

4043

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4410

4313

4216

4155

4119

4058

4022

3925

3828


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Gold falls by 0.2% on global cues Gold prices fell by Rs 50 to Rs 25,958 per 10 grams in futures trade on Wednesday amid a weak global trend. At Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for October contacts fell by Rs 50, or 0.19%, to Rs 25,958 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 354 lots. On similar lines, the precious metal for delivery in December was trading down by Rs 43, or 0.16%, to Rs 26,171 per 10 grams in 32 lots. Fall in gold futures to a weak global trend as investors await the release of Federal Reserve minutes which may give further clues on the timing of an interest rate increase. Globally, gold was little changed at $1,117.71 an ounce in Singapore today.

✍ Zinc falls by 0.2% on global cues Zinc futures traded 0.21% lower at Rs 119.15 per kg on mondaty as speculators trimmed positions, tracking a weak global trend. Zinc for delivery in August declined by 25 paise, or 0.21%, to Rs 119.15 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked business turnover of 417 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in the September contracts softened by 15 paise, or 0.12%, to Rs 120 per kg in 12 lots. Weakness in zinc at futures trade was mostly attributed to a weak trend in copper and other base metals in the global markets as investors await US manufacturing, inflation and housing data this week that may give more clues on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate rise.

✍ Base metals hit multi year low on Chinese demand concerns Base metals hit multi-year lows on the London Metal Exchange (LME) due to heightening risk of a demand slowdown from China, the world’s largest producer and consumer. The recent devaluation of the Chinese yuan will make base metals’ costlier and poses a risk to their imports into China. Copper slipped below the psychological barrier of $5,000 a tonne before recovering to settle at $5,007 on Wednesday. The metal had touched this level last in July 2009 following the crash in financial markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.


Metals are falling in anticipation of falling consumption and swelling supply as global producers have not announced any major output cuts despite incurring losses at prevailing prices. Oversupply of most base metals is likely, resulting in a further fall in prices. China is the primary factor contributing to base metals fall. The last stimulus by the Chinese government pulled back markets. Then the devaluation followed. More than China’s weakening economy, the devaluation of the yuan pressured metals. Following copper, aluminium prices also fell to $1,522, their lowest level since June 2009. Aluminium has declined 17 per cent this year. Zinc and nickel also settled at $1,776 a tonne and $10,330 a tonne on the LME, their lowest levels since August 2012 and April 2009, respectively. While copper reported a 21 per cent decline, zinc and nickel have plunged 18 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively, in 2015. Growing risk that copper prices would fall further because of a Chinese hard landing. Its baseline scenario was for China’s growth to slow to 6.8 per cent and copper consumption to ease to 4 per cent

✍ Copper up on positive global cues Copper futures on Thursday rose by 50 paise to Rs 328.85 per kg on the back of pick up in spot demand and positive cues from overseas markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August was trading higher 50 paise to Rs 328.85 per kg with a turnover of 1,402 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month November was up 45 paise to Rs 335.05 per kg with a trade volume of 20 lots. Globally, copper for three-month delivery added as much as 0.5% to $5,018 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Analysts attributed the rise in copper at futures trade to a firming trend on the LME where it snapped a five-day decline as weaker-than-expected inflation figures from the US trimmed bets on a September interest rate increase and the dollar weakened. Besides, pick-up in spot demand at domestic markets supported the upside, they said.

✍ Lead falls by 0.4% on weak global cues Lead fell 0.45% to Rs 109.75 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday after participants reduced exposure amid a weak trend overseas and sluggish domestic demand.


At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month contract was trading 50 paise, or 0.45%, down at Rs 109.75 per kg in a business turnover of 949 lots. Metal for delivery in September fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 110.85 per kg in 42 lots. Besides weak demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot market, weakness in base metals at the London Metal Exchange on concern that demand may falter in China as an equity rout resumed weighed on lead futures here.

� Oil rebounds from 6-yr low Crude oil rebounded from the lowest level in more than six years, as investors cut bets for a US interest-rate increase in September, sending the dollar lower. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose as much as 1.3 per cent, as the falling US currency increased the appeal of commodities as a store of value. Slower global economic growth might cause the US Federal Reserve to delay a move, as the minutes released on Wednesday showed officials were concerned about low inflation. Oil has traded in a bear market since July on signs the oversupply will be prolonged and as concern grows that emerging economies will weaken. US crude supplies are almost 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average, while some leading members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are maintaining near-record production. WTI for September delivery, which expires on Thursday, rose 23 cents, or 0.6 percent, to nearly $41 a barrel at 11:59 am on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It earlier fell to $40.21, the lowest since March 2009. The volume of all futures traded was 25 per cent above the 100-day average. The more-active October contract increased 21 cents to $41.5. Brent for October settlement declined nine cents to nearly $47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It reached $46.3, the lowest level since January 14. The European benchmark crude traded at a $5.59 premium to the October WTI contract. WTI dropped 4.3 percent Wednesday after U.S. crude supplies expanded by 2.62 million barrels last week, the most since April, according to Energy Information Administration data. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures and the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, rose by 326,000 barrels to 57.4 million through Aug. 14, A disruption at BP Plc's Whiting plant in Indiana meant about 1.5 million barrels of oil didn't get consumed last week. Inventories at Cushing may expand further as refiners perform seasonal maintenance.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Progressive monsoon to push jeera sowing A normal progressive monsoon has increased the possibility of better sowing and higher production of jeera (cumin) for the next season of 2015-16. Good availability of water might increase sowing area in the next season, thereby pushing up jeera production if all goes well during growing period. Sowing of jeera takes place during October-November, while harvest starts from March. Since jeera, which is sowed mostly in Gujarat and Rajasthan, is a rabi crop, monsoon plays a crucial role in the crop’s overall success. South-west monsoon has been near-normal so far with sowing of most of the kharif crops being higher than last year. “Farmers have received good prices for jeera and this may encourage them to sow more in the upcoming sowing season. Moreover, good rains have enhanced irrigation scenario which may further improve jeera acreage on an average by 20 per cent as against last year. Ample showers received in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the main jeera growing area, during June and July, might ensure good sowing of jeera. Moreover, normal rains during August and September, too, will influence sowing progress of jeera in non-irrigated fields. “In the current scenario, a better picture of monsoon has emerged and we expect jeera production to be around 400,000 tonnes for 2015-16. According to Gujarat government data, till recently, jeera sowing acreage had declined 42 per cent to 264,000 hectares against 454,000 hectares last year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the area declined by 10-15 per cent during this rabi season. According to Angel Commodity report, uptrend in jeera prices in domestic market has been observed since November 2014 on account of lower and delayed sowing due to poor monsoon and lower price realisation by the farmers last year. In the current year, on expectation of lower output and export demand, spot and futures prices had touched all time high of Rs 18,538 a quintal and Rs 18,700 a quintal, respectively, in May. After attaining highest levels, prices have been in downward trend now. Jeera prices have corrected by 14.4 per cent to Rs 15,862 a quintal in spot and by 21.6 per cent to Rs 14,660 a quintal in futures. Despite the fall, jeera prices have ruled at 39 per cent and 30 per cent levels higher in spot and futures markets, respectively, than what they were at the start of the jeera sowing season in November last year, the Angel Commodity report stated. According to the Spices Board, India exported 155,500 tonnes of jeera in 2014-15, 28 per cent higher than last year's exports of 121,500 tonnes. India mainly exports jeera to Vietnam, the US, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Nepal, Spain, Brazil and the UK. Jeera is the second largest spice exported from the country after chilli.


� Chana up 1% as spot demand picks up Chana rose further 1.04 per cent to Rs 4,779 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday as traders widened their holdings, triggered by rising demand at the spot markets. Moreover, restricted supplies from producing belts coupled with lower estimated output too supported the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for August delivery rose by Rs 49, or 1.04 per cent, to Rs 4,779 per quintal, with an open interest of 3,750 lots. Similarly, chana for delivery in September was higher by Rs 42, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 4,769 per quintal, with an open interest of 1,58,120 lots. Rising demand at domestic spot markets mainly supported the upside in chana futures here.


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