Commodity research report 26 december 2017 ways2capital

` ✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29-DEC-2017

151.10

146.90

142.70

141.10

138.90

137.10

134.50

130.30

123.10

COPPER

28- FEB-2018

477.50

471.00

465.0

462

458

455.80

451.50

445.10

438.60

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

3835

3800

3765

3750

3730

3716

3695

3660

3625

GOLD

05-FEB -2018

29120

28996

28790

28720

28590

28530

28390

28190

27990

LEAD

29-DEC-2017

165.80

163.60

161.40

159.90

159.10

157.70

156.80

154.60

152.40

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

184.10

178.90

173.90

171.90

168.80

166.80

163.60

158.60

153.40

NICKEL

29-DEC-2017

818

802

786

778

770

762

754

739

723

SILVER

05-MAR-2018

39640

39036

38428

38200

37820

37580

37210

36600

35990

ZINC

29-DEC-2017

218.80

215.40

211.90

210.70

208.50

207.20

205.05

201.60

198.10

Tuesday, 26 December 2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

ALUMINIUM

DATE 29-DEC-2017

162.40

154

145.60

COPPER

28- FEB-2018

504.30

487.80

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

3977

GOLD

05-FEB -2018

LEAD

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

142.60

137.20

134.20

128.80

120.40

112

471.20

465.60

454.70

449

438.10

421.60

405

3889

3801

3765

3713

3681

3625

3537

3449

29660

29286

28911

28780

28540

28407

28161

27786

27411

29-DEC-2017

181.20

174.30

167.50

163.0

160.60

156.10

153.80

146.90

140.10

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

220.10

204.10

187.90

178.40

171.80

162.80

155.70

139.60

123.50

NICKEL

29-DEC-2017

889

843

802

786

760

746

722

681

641

SILVER

05-MAR-2018

40100

39320

38544

38230

37760

37460

36980

36198

35410

ZINC

29-DEC-2017

227.60

220.90

214.10

211.80

207.40

205.50

200.60

193.90

187.1

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY USDINR

EXPIRY DATE 19-JAN-18

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S2

S3

66.922

66.100

65.300

64.800

64.500

64.000

63.700

62.900

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

77.800

77.050

76.700

76.350

76.000

75.650

74.900

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

86.550

86.350

86.250

86.150

86.050

85.950

85.750

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

57.100

57.000

56.950

56.900

56.900

56.800

56.700

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5 EURINR

19-JAN-18

78.517 5

GBPINR

19-JAN-18

86.780 0

JPYINR

19-JAN-18

57.177 5

S1

S4 62.0775

74.1825

85.5200

56.6225

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

19-JAN-18

64.445

64.400

64.300

64.300

64.250

64.200

64.200

64.100

64.055

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

76.600

76.500

76.400

76.350

76.300

76.250

76.100

75.975

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

88.400

87.400

86.800

86.400

85.800

85.400

84.400

83.392

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

59.400

58.300

57.600

57.200

56.550

56.100

55.000

53.922

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

0 EURINR

19-JAN-18

76.725 0

GBPINR

19-JAN-18

89.407 5

JPYINR

19-JAN-18

60.477 5

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Gold was up 0.55 percent at $1,273.61 an ounce, after rising to $1.275.98, the highest since Dec. 5.

Bullion was on track to see its strongest weekly performance since mid-October. U.S. growth prospects dimmed on Friday as data showed spending outpaced income in November and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure -- the personal consumption expenditures price index that excludes food and energy -- rose by just 0.1 percent in November. U.S. data showing solid home sales but a fall in mortgage applications pushed the dollar to a two-week low. Besides, optimism on the U.S. tax overhaul would help boost growth and as economic data improves also had its fair share in price moves.

Spot silver prices rose 1.9 percent to close at $16.4 per ounce on account of rise in copper prices and rise in gold prices as well. On the MCX, silver prices rose 1.98 percent to close at Rs.38410 per kg.

� BASE METAL LME Copper prices surged by 3.5 percent last week as stable economic numbers from China calmed fears of a sharp slowdown in the mainland nation. Along with this, Xi Jinping vowed to push ahead with a clean-up of the financial sector. Further, weaker DX continued to support dollar denominated metals since global investors have already factored in the passage of US tax bill. US Senate approved the final version of the US tax code in more than 30 years. Besides, latest data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed stagnant refined copper supplies, in combination with strong Chinese apparent usage in September, pushed deficit to 181,000 t from an estimated 160,000 t for the first seven months of the year.

Base metals continued their positive momentum last week as stable Chinese economic data coupled with weaker DX supported an upside. MCX base metals apart from Lead traded higher in line with international trends.

� ENERGY WTI and Brent oil prices traded positive by 1.6 and 2.5 percent as OPEC started working on plans for an exit strategy from its deal to cut crude supplies, fuelling hopes it would not end supply cuts abruptly. U.S. crude stocks fell by 6.5 million barrels, more than expected, in the week to Dec. 15, while gasoline stocks rose 1.2 million barrels. Inventories have been steadily declining in the United States due to strong export demand and efforts by major oil producers to restrict supply. On the other side, rising U.S. output and the expected January reopening of the Forties pipeline in the North Sea could result in to headwinds for oil prices to rise. Market liquidity was drying up on Friday as traders closed positions ahead of the upcoming Christmas and New Year breaks.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW � CRUDE OIL For the last three weeks, crude oil prices have been consolidating in a narrow range and in the previous week it dipped till the low of 3642 and recouped higher and ended almost near the week high of 3737.

Although the price is recovering from the low it is till trading below the trend line resistance and it is failing to make convincing close above the January high of 3780. Going forward, if the prices manage to close above 3780 will provide fresh bull rally till 4000 and higher. The momentum indicator MACD is still on the positive note and the RSI reclaimed higher from 62 to 64. For the week, 3780 mark holds as a key break out level and convincing break above that will trigger a fresh rally. Thus we advise buying above 3780 mark for upside targets of 3900 then 3980.

BUY CRUDE OIL JAN ABOVE 3790 TGT 3900 SL 3740

� ZINC During the last week, Zinc January contract prices extended its gains after opening at 205.70 and ended at 209.55 mark gaining 2.02%. Zinc price is reverting from the support of 199 and has penetrated the immediate trend line resistance providing a bullish break out of an down trend channel. According to the pattern, the upside targets are projected till 220 levels and surpass above that will extend the commodity till the trend channel resistance in the long run. The momentum indicator inched slightly higher and while

209.10 then a fresh rally can be seen till 216 then 218 levels. Therefore, we advise buying above 210 for given targets.

SELL ZINC DEC ABOVE 210 TGT 214 SL 208

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

SYOREFIDR

19-JAN-2018

738.70

731.40

724.10

721.20

SYBEANIDR

19-JAN-2018

3164

3133

3102

RMSEED

19-JAN-2018

4271

4179

JEERAUNJHA

19-JAN-2018

22400

GUARSEED10

19-JAN-2018

TMC

20-APR-2018

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

716.90

713.90

709.60

702.20

694.90

3086

3070

3055

3040

3009

2978

4087

4050

3995

3958

3903

3811

3719

22055

21710

21510

213520

21165

21020

20675

20330

4210

4151

4092

4055

4033

3999

3974

3915

3856

8396

8186

7980

7879

7766

7669

7556

7346

7136

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

752.90

736.40

727.40

719.90

710.90

703.40

686.90

670.40

DATE SYOREFIDR

19-JAN-2018

769.4 0

SYBEANIDR

19-JAN-2018

3192

3132

3101

3070

3041

3041

3012

2952

2892

RMSEED

19-JAN-2018

4287

4189

4091

4052

3989

3954

3895

3797

3699

JEERAUNJHA

19-JAN-2018

2368

22955

22225

21770

21485

21040

20765

20035

19305

5 GUARSEED10

19-JAN-2018

4210

4151

4092

4056

4033

3999

3974

3915

3856

TMC

20-APR-2018

8988

8556

8124

7950

7692

7520

7260

6828

6396

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SPICE COMPLEX NCDEX Jan Jeera falls on profit booking on Friday and prices moving sideways and consolidates near 21,300 levels on anticipation of good physical and export demand. For the December contract, NCDEX reported record deliveries allocations of 4,896 tonnes on Exchange platform. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat also pressurizes prices. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage in Gujarat up by 35% to 3.5 lakh hectares as on 18th Dec 2017. Last year, it was 2.6 lakh ha at that same time while the normal acreage is 2.8 lakh ha. As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 15 days of Dec down by 50% to 1,985 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.

Turmeric Apr contract closed higher on Friday due to fresh buying initiated by market participants due to firm physical demand and expectation of improved up-country demand from the new season. The supplies have improved during last one month due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher during first 15 days in December this year to 15,021 tonnes compared to 7,877 tonnes last year same month according to Agmarknet data.

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX NCDEX Soybean futures fell due to profit booking at higher levels on Friday. However, the prices have improved last week due to firm demand from the physical market as supplies have been diminishing. The arrivals have been lower during first 25 days of December compared to last year. As per, Agmarknet, 6.22 lakh tonnes of soybean arrived in physical market in December (1-25) against close to 7.6 lt last year for the same time period. SOPA increased its meal exports estimates for 2017/18 due to increased export incentives by 2% to 7% by government for all meals. Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (OctSep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.

Mustard Jan futures jump higher on Friday due to short covering by market participants on anticipation of increase in physical demand in coming month. Currently the prices have been moving according to the winter demand but reports of lower sowing acreage this year is supporting prices. The acreage of mustard was down 8% till last week at 62.8 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.8 lakh ha.

✍ OTHER COMPLEX Chana Jan futures closed higher on Friday supported by government withdrew customs duty exemption on chana and imposed 30% duty with immediate effect. Reports of higher stocks and improved sowing progress have pressurized prices during the last two months. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 13.7% on year at 96.23 lakh ha as on last week. Area under Chana exceeds 90 lakh ha for the second consecutive year. Last year area was close to 99 lakh ha. MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka exceed normal sowing area this season. The NCDEX have imposed a special margin of 5% on the sell side to support falling prices.

MCX Dec Cotton closed lower on profit booking after it touched fresh highs for the season on the prior session due to lower than expected arrivals in the domestic market. There is expectation of fall in domestic output due to pink bollworm attacks and fluctuating weather conditions during cotton sowing season in major cotton sowing states. Pakistan’s decision to permit import of Indian cotton has provided the latest trigger for the price rise. Along with Pakistan, buyers from China and Bangladesh too have finalized deals for Indian cotton. ICE cotton settled lower on Friday, but benchmark prices held close to seven-month highs as sustained speculative demand helped the March contract rise for a ninth straight week. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed cotton futures and options spec traders adding 8,165 contracts to their net long position. That 97,675 contracts figure was the largest reported net long position since midMay. The USDA reported net upland sales of 326,500 running bales for 2017/2018 for the week ending Dec. 14, which was up 26 % from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW ✍ SOYABEAN Last week, Soybean January contract price opened slightly higher at 3024 and rose till the high of 3089 and finally settled at 3070. On the weekly chart prices has penetrated long term trend line resistance and has ended just above that. Going ahead, prices are likely to remain higher and can head towards the resistance of 3160 then 3280 levels. The momentum indicator MACD and stochastic have made a positive cross over on weekly chart and the RSI also inching higher from 52 to 56 is indicating bullish signs. For the week, the soybean prices are likely to remain higher and recommend to buy above 3103 for given upside targets of 3160 the 3200 levels.

BUY SOYABEAN JAN ABOVE 3105 TGT 3190 SL 3060

� RMSEED � RMSEED Last week, RMSEED January contract price opened slightly higher at 4020 and rose till the high of 4038 and found resistance level at and finally settled at 3998. On the 4 hourly chart prices forming inverted H&S Pattern indicating short term positive movement. Going ahead, prices are likely to remain higher and can head towards the resistance of 4100 then 4140 levels. The momentum indicator MACD and stochastic have made a positive cross over on weekly chart and the. RSI also inching higher from 52 to 56 is indicating bullish signs. For the week, the RM SEED prices are likely to remain higher and recommend to buy above 4040 for given upside targets of 4100 the 4140 levels.

BUY RMSEED JAN ABOVE 4040 TGT 4140 SL 3990

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