✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29- SEP-2017
143.10
142.10
141.10
140.10
138.10
136.10
135.10
134.10
133.10
COPPER
30- NOV-2017
428.60
426.10
424.10
422.6
421.60
420.00
418.10
416.20
414.20
19-SEP-17
3450
3410
3350
3300
3289
3240
3200
3160
3120
GOLD
05-OCT--2017
30450
30150
30075
29999
29892
29800
29699
29599
29489
LEAD
29- SEP-2017
162.60
161.60
160.60
159.90
159.60
159.00
158.00
157.00
156.00
NATURAL GAS
26-SEP-2017
200.00
198.00
196.00
194.00
192.40
190.40
188.40
186.40
184.40
NICKEL
29- SEP-2017
720
710
700
690
683.70
673
663
653
643
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
41500
41150
40750
40249
39806
39406
39006
38888
38488
ZINC
29- DEC-2017
204.40
203.3
202.10
200.90
199.40
198.40
197.10
196.00
194.90
CRUDE OIL
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29- SEP-2017
147.1
145.10
143.10
141.10
138.10
135.10
133.10
131.4
129.10
COPPER
30- JUN-2017
436.40
432.40
428.60
424.10
421.60
418.10
414.20
410.20
406.20
CRUDE OIL
19-SEP-17
3650
3550
3450
3350
3289
3200
3120
3040
2950
GOLD
05-OCT--2017
31200
30800
30450
30075
29892
29699
29489
29299
29099
LEAD
29- SEP-2017
166.60
164.60
162.60
160.60
159.60
158.00
156.00
154.00
152.00
NATURAL GAS
26-SEP-2017
208.00
204.00
200.00
196.00
192.40
188.40
184.40
180.40
176.40
NICKEL
29- SEP-2017
760
740
720
700
683.70
663
643
623
603
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
42600
42050
41500
40750
39806
39006
38488
38088
37786
ZINC
29- DEC-2017
208.40
206.40
204.40
202.10
199.40
197.10
194.90
192.90
190.90
Monday 25 September 2017
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27-SEP-17
66.10
65.90
65.60
65.35
65.10
64.85
64.71
64.50
64.25
EURINR
27-SEP-17
89.50
89.10
88.60
88.36
87.90
87.51
87.11
86.51
86.01
GBPINR
27-SEP-17
79.30
78.80
78.30
77.80
77.30
76.80
76.30
75.87
75.37
JPYINR
27-SEP-17
58.60
58.50
58.40
58.30
58.10
57.90
57.70
57.50
57.30
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27-SEP-17
65.30
65.00
64.80
64.50
64.18
63.91
63.61
63.31
63.01
EURINR
27-SEP-17
77.90
77.50
77.10
76.81
76.50
76.20
75.90
75.50
75.10
GBPINR
27-SEP-17
88.30
88.00
87.70
87.30
86.90
86.50
86.10
85.70
85.10
JPYINR
27-SEP-17
58.40
58.20
57.98
57.78
57.58
57.38
57.18
56.98
56.78
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Drillers cut five oil rigs in the week to Sept. 22, bringing the total count down to 744, the least
since June, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.
Russia urged "hot heads" to calm down on Friday as the United States admitted it felt
"challenged" by North Korea's warning that it could test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific and President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un traded more insults. ✍ BULLION Spot gold prices declined 1.7 percent last week to close at $1297 per ounce while MCX, gold prices declined 1 percent to close at Rs.29700 per 10 gms. Gold had been creeping higher in the minutes before the Fed released a statement about its latest two-day policy meeting, then reversed course and fell. It briefly sank below the $1,300 mark that many in the markets viewed as psychological support. As expected, the Fed also said it would start to reduce the portfolio of Treasuries and mortgages it acquired through its quantitative easing (QE) program after the financial crisis. New projections after the Fed meeting showed 11 of 16 officials favored higher benchmark U.S. interest rates by year-end. U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly, vowing to "totally destroy" North Korea unless Pyongyang backs down from its nuclear challenge The Fed meeting last week was among the most important event but failed to provide any decisive trigger to the dollar or precious metals. The Fed kept rates unchanged but will start unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet from October. The Fed will now allow maturing Treasuries and mortgagebacked securities to run off its balance sheet from next month, in contrast to its ongoing practice of reinvesting all of the proceeds. The details of the process have already been announced. When the unwinding starts, the Fed will reduce reinvestments in Treasuries (TSY) at a rate of $6Bn/month Monday, September 25, 2017 Precious Metals Weekly Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 and mortgage backed securities (MBS) at $4Bn/month, totaling $10bn/month initially. It will increase the reinvestment caps in steps of $10bn ($6TSY+$4MBS) at 3 month intervals over 12 months until it reaches a total $50bn per month. The process is likely to continue for several years until the Fed attains an optimum size of its balance sheet. On the rates front, the Fed kept the possibility of a December rate hike alive despite the fact that it sees inflation lower this year. the Fed now expects core personal consumption expenditures to come in at 1.5%-1.6% in 2017, down from prior expectations of 1.6%-1.7%.The 2018 dot-plot was unchanged with most members expecting 3 rate hikes next year. The new dot plot is slightly more dovish in the long term with most members expecting rates to settle around 2.75%, down from 3%
in the previous forecasts. This suggests that rate hikes will be very gradual and may help gold prices find support. Gold prices have however staged a retreat after touching $1360 earlier this month as the incremental impact of geopolitical tensions has faded. After imposition of another round of sanctions on North Korea, it test-fired another missile last week but markets saw a very limited reaction. The new UN sanctions include a ban on exporting textiles, its second-biggest export and put limit of 2 million barrels a year on refined petroleum product imports. While sabrerattling between UK and NK continues, we believe that markets now need to see significant escalation to react as the initial risk-premium is already built into prices. The other important driver for gold has been consistent weakness in the US dollar and the direction of the dollar hasn’t changed decisively after the Fed meeting. The US dollar index remains near multi-month lows and the weakness has been amplified by the excessive euro and GBP strength. Central bank policies are back into focus as geo-political tensions have eased in the past few days. The pound rallied on hints that a rate hike may be coming sooner than markets expected. The ECB will also be ready with its plan for unwinding stimulus by the next meeting in October which will support the euro. Source: Reuters Source: Reuters Precious Metals Weekly Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 3 Lack of Inflation remains a challenge for the Fed but the latest inflation reading has provided some hope. The headline CPI in the US touched 1.9% y/y in August, a seven month high while core CPI grew at 1.7% y/y. Consequently, December rate hike odds have reached close to 70%. This however came after five consecutive low readings of inflation data this year which means that it is still too early to conclude that inflation is rebounding. If inflation remains elusive, the Fed will be forced to go slower with further rate hikes. On the demand side, Gold ETF’s saw inflows for a seventh straight week following the price rally and SPDR holdings are up by 39 tonnes so far this month. Indian gold prices continue to be at a discount but the discount has narrowed to $4 and the upcoming festive season may see a pickup in gold demand. Silver ETF’s on the other hand have seen outflows with holdings down 380 tonnes this month ✍ BASE METAL LME base metals traded mixed last week as latest war of words between US and North Korea along with monetary tightening signals from the US hurt global risk appetite. MCX base metals traded mixed in line with trends in the international markets. Aluminum prices traded firm adding over 25% YTD gains. Reports have indicated that 30% of aluminium smelting capacity and 50% of alumina refining capacity may be cut in Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi provinces of China if environmental measures are introduced. If China were to curtail capacity, it is expected to be supportive of aluminium prices. Expectations of winter shutdowns and Chinese supply reform are among the main reasons that prices are likely to remain firm. Additionally, the US administration in April 2017 has announced that it would begin investigating whether aluminium imports pose a threat to self-sufficiency in the US. This action may lead to higher import duties being levied on aluminium. Both North America and Europe were facing short supply of aluminium and the estimated global production in Q3 of 2017 would be balanced with consumption.
Base metals have been trading choppy in a range; with the short term bias still remains confusing. LME witnessed a brief correction during the month and bounced back before the weekend after investors slashed risk late last week on concerns about China's credit and escalating tensions over North Korea. S&P downgraded Chinese credit rating which added to pressure on some metals. There was a general feeling that the recent rally may have overshot and some retracement is therefore justifiable. Nickel prices tumbled, as concerns about a slowdown in China weighed upon industrial metals along with Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 3 For any details contact: ShFE hiking trading fees for the near month volatile contract. Driving the losses are fears that the economy in China is slowing as the effects of government stimulus ebb and policy makers clamp down on speculation and asset bubbles. It’s now a growing fear that China's mining industry will shrink if the government does not cut it some slack in return for.Expectations of winter shutdowns and Chinese supply reform are among the main reasons that prices are likely to remain firm. Additionally, the US administration in April 2017 has announced that it would begin investigating whether aluminium imports pose a threat to self-sufficiency in the US. This action may lead to higher import duties being levied on aluminium. Both North America and Europe were facing short supply of aluminium and the estimated global production in Q3 of 2017 would be balanced with consumption. This, coupled with the increase in input cost, is likely to Monday, September 25, 2017 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 hold the price but uncertainty still remains on account of China starting low-cost smelters, surfacing of unreported inventory, and buyers adopting a wait and watch approach. For the short term, weakening Chinese fundamentals and the country's plans to shut down smelting capacities would weigh on LME aluminium prices. This, coupled with the increase in input cost, is likely to Monday, September 25, 2017 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 hold the price but uncertainty still remains on account of China starting low-cost smelters, surfacing of unreported inventory, and buyers adopting a wait and watch approach. For the short term, weakening Chinese fundamentals and the country's plans to shut down smelting capacities would weigh on LME aluminium prices.Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Osaka. Few fed members have their speeches thru the week. Later The U.S. is to produce reports on consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders and pending home sales. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to deliver remarks in London. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is also to speak at the same event. The U.S. is to release final figures for second quarter growth as well as data on jobless claims. The UK is to publish figures on the current account and a final estimate of second quarter growth. � ENERGY WTI oil prices jumped 1.5 percent last week to close at $50.7 per barrel while MCX oil prices rose 3 percent to close at Rs.3287 per barrel. Despite rise in U.S. crude inventories, oil prices headed for its largest third-quarter gain in 13 years after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its partners were
considering extending or deepening output cuts. OPEC's second-biggest producer Iraq said that the group was discussing several options for its supply pact, including an extension beyond March and a further output cut. The OPEC meeting last week provided a few positive headlines but fell short of any actual announcements. There was speculation that extension of the deal may be announced but OPEC left it for its January 2018 meeting. There were no caps imposed on Libya or Nigeria but they pledged to contribute to supply cuts when their production stabilizes. There was a discussion about monitoring exports along with production but there was no concrete announcement on that front. Members estimated that compliance to output cuts was in excess of 100% in September and that the oil market is recovering strongly. On the supply side, OPEC indicated that output in August fell by 79,000 barrels a day to 32.76 million, driven mainly by a decline in Libya, Gabon, Venezuela and Iraq. Libya’s crude oil production fell by about 112,000 bpd, to 0.89 mbpd while Nigeria's output jumped by 138,000 barrels, reaching 1.86 million bpd. The OPEC’s supply compliance rate was up to 82% in August from 75% during July. Oil exports by OPEC were 25.19 million bpd in August, their lowest level since April. The IEA on the other hand reported that global oil output fell by 720,000 bpd due to Monday, September 25, 2017 Energy Weekly 2 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Thousands EIA Crude stocks weekly Change unplanned outages and scheduled maintenance, mainly in non-OPEC countries. This is the first decline in four months suggesting that the oil market is slowly getting tighter. US production has jumped back to pre-hurricane levels at 9.51 mbpd but growth seems to have plateaued if the rig count is an indication. The number of oil rigs in the US fell by 5 last week, the third consecutive drop. US oil rig count is down by 12 so far in Q3 compared to sharp increases in the first half of this year. The EIA has revised lower US oil production for 2017 from 9.35 million bpd to 9.25 million. The 2018 forecast was also revised lower from 9.91 million bpd to 9.84 million bpd. The growth in US production has been the biggest impediment to oil prices this year and any slowdown on that front could provide a good lift to prices in the medium term. On the inventory side, US oil inventories have been increasing for the past three weeks as the Hurricane impacted refinery demand. However, the trend has been down and US oil inventories have declined by ~60 million barrels since the end of March. Oil stocks are 1.2 million barrels below last year levels. US oil inventories are back within the five-year range and are at their lowest since January 2016. In Europe, ARA product were down 3.8% last week and are at par with year-ago levels at 40.34 million barrels. In August, OECD stocks were 190 million barrels above the 5-year average compared to an excess of 219 million in July. On the whole, fundamentals are now slowly turning supportive for oil prices as supply has started to flatten at a time when demand remains robust. Brent prices have been supported as demand for promptloading barrels at North Sea crude market has jumped and supply remains lower due to oilfield maintenance. The WTI curve has also flattened in the last couple of weeks indicating a bullish market. The monthly reports from IEA and OPEC also raised their demand forecasts higher for this year. The IEA now expects global demand to increase by 1.6 mbpd this year while OPEC estimates global demand
growth by 1.42 mbpd. In the near term, demand could also see a lift as US refineries 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 300 400 500 600 700 800 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 US oil Rig count vs. Production U.S. Production(RHS) Rig count Energy Weekly 3 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. For any details contact: Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600 commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com Disclaimer: restart after closure due to Hurricane Harvey. US refinery utilization rebounded to 83.2% last week after dropping to 77.7% after the Hurricane struck. This implies that nearly 3.6 mbpd of demand which was affected could now come back. WTI edged higher for a second straight week and prices have held above $50 in the last few days on better OPEC compliance and dropping US rig count. Baker Hughes data show that the number of oil rigs in the US fell by 5 to 744 last week. The OPEC meeting comments showed that the decision about extending the supply cuts will be taken in January. OPEC/non-OPEC technical committee estimates that compliance to output cuts crossed 100% in September. On the whole, the near term bias for oil remains positive and prices sustaining above $50 will further support technical buying. For natural gas, prices remain in a broad range on lack of definitive triggers. On the inventory side, gas stocks total 3,408 Bcf, which is 4% less than the year-ago level and 2% more than the five-year average for this week. Prices may find support this week as gas demand for power generation will increase as Florida electricity generation returns to prehurricane levels.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW � GOLD In the hourly chart, MCX Gold price has been moving within a downwards falling channel, which is a bearish set up. In addition, price is on corrective mode for the last few trading session. In addition, RSI has come out of its overbought zone and fallen below the rising trendline which suggests near term weakness. Short term trend remains bearish; on the lower end price may move towards 29300 over the short term.
� SILVER
In the hourly chart, MCX Silver price has been moving down with a lower top lower bottom formation which suggests growing pessimism among the short term traders. Moreover, price has fallen below 21 EMA on the daily chart which confirms the reversal of the earlier uptrend. In addition, RSI has fallen below the rising trendline which suggests near term weakness. Short term trend remains bearish; on the lower end price may move towards 39000 over the short term.
� COPPER
In daily chart, the MCX Copper price has been taking a breather after steep fall from the high of 451. The price has sustained below 21 EMA on the daily chart which suggests weakness going forward. In addition, daily RSI is in bearish crossover and falling. Based on the above analysis we can come out with a view that MCX Copper may continue to move southwards; on the lower end price may reach towards 410 levels over the short term
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-OCT-2017
696
692
688
684
680
676
672
668
664
SYBEANIDR
13-OCT-2017
3220
3200
3177
3155
3133
3113
3093
3073
3053
RMSEED
13-OCT-2017
3820
3800
3880
3761
3749
3725
3700
3675
3650
JEERAUNJHA
13-OCT-2017
20100
19900
19810
19740
19650
19530
19410
19290
19150
GUARSEED10
13-OCT-2017
3880
3845
3810
3775
3752
3716
3670
3630
3590
TMC
13-OCT-2017
7520
7480
7450
7413
7381
7340
7300
7260
7220
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-OCT-2017
715
704
696
688
680
672
664
650
640
SYBEANIDR
13-OCT-2017
3400
3300
3220
3177
3133
3093
3053
3000
2900
RMSEED
13-OCT-2017
4000
3900
3820
3880
3749
3700
3650
3550
3450
JEERAUNJHA
13-OCT-2017
20600
20400
20100
19810
19650
19410
19150
18900
19600
GUARSEED10
13-OCT-2017
4000
3920
3880
3810
3752
3670
3590
3500
3400
TMC
13-OCT-2017
7650
7600
7520
7450
7381
7300
7220
7150
7050
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � SPICE COMPLEX Turmeric futures (Oct) has broken the support near 7400 levels & may fall further towards 7200 levels. At the spot markets in Erode, Sangli and Waranal the turmeric prices are quoting lower due to subdued demand despite of the ongoing festival seasons. On the supply side, turmeric production for the next season is estimated to be as good as last season with the producing regions in southern India experiencing good rainfall in the past few weeks. Sowing of the commodity was last seen marginally lower than the preceding year but the higher rainfall is expected to boost the yield. Jeera futures (Oct) may witness a consolidation in the range of 19400-19800 levels. There is a tug-of-war amidst demand & supply situation & cautiousness among the market participants. Jeera stocks in Unjha is pegged between 8-9 lakh bags (55kg each), whereas all over Gujarat the stocks may be around 10-11 lakh bags left for the entire season. The monthly Jeera consumption is around 2.5-3 lakh bags, which means that country needs around 12.5-15 lakh bags of Jeera until new crop starts from March. There has been some good demand witnessed from local and upcountry buyers as stocks are left thin in the market to cater demand for the remaining season, however buyers at the same time are concern about prospects of higher sowing this season, starting from October. Coriander futures (Oct) is expected to take support near 4550 levels & witness some lower level buying. The import of Coriander may slow down as domestic prices are available at competitive rates after recent correction & on the other hand the domestic demand may emerge around current level which may prevent any further fall in prices.Jeera and Turmeric at NCDEX (Oct) extended losses due to profit booking. Dhaniya at NCDEX (Oct) traded down tracking supply pressure in physical market. Cardamom at MCX (Oct) traded firm tracking strong fundamentals. Prices of Turmeric are likely to resume its upswing and Cross Rs. 8000/qtl levels in coming sessions at NCDEX (Oct) futures on expectation of lower output due to unsupportive weather conditions in major growing areas. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels and test resistance of Rs.20050/qtl at NCDEX (Oct) due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Downside in Dhaniya futures is likely to remain limited on support of lower levels buying. Rs.4650/qtl is likely to act as a god support at NCDEX (Oct). Subdued selling pressure in Indonesia on weaker production in current harvest may have a positive impact on International Pepper market which supports prices in local market. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.
� OILSEED
COMPLEX
Soybean futures (Oct) may continue to witness consolidation in the range of 3100- 3170 levels. This oilseed is bouncing back after every correction, which depicts that in days to come, an upside
momentum can be seen supported by lower arrivals, last moment rains damaging the standing crop & estimates of lower output. The farmers in Madhya Pradesh are unable to harvest the early variety of soybean which has reached maturity, as the moisture content is high. Secondly, with the clouds hovering over Madhya Pradesh, there are chances that early variety soybean crop will get damaged whereas this rain will be beneficial for late variety soybean. Last but not the least, soybean output in Maharashtra for 2017-18 is expected to drop 22.69% on year to 35.74 lakh tonnes due to lower acreage and yield, according to the first advance estimate data of the state agriculture department. Mustard futures (Oct) is expected to go down further towards 3700- 3680 levels. This bearishness is owing to the limited demand against ample stocks available in the spot markets. It is estimated that the stock of mustard seed with stockiest and farmers is around 28 lakh tonnes which is sufficient to meet the demand of crushing industry until the new crop arrives in February so millers are in no hurry to procure mustard seed in bulk quantities. Soy oil futures (Oct) may witness a consolidation in the range of 675-690 levels, while CPO futures (Oct) may trade with a downside bias in the range of 538-548 levels. At present, the demand of edible oils in the retail markets are hand to mouth, despite of the upcoming festivals so wholesale traders are not showing any interest in bulk purchases.Soybean at NCDEX (Oct) resumed its upswing tracking firm USD/INR and positive global cues. Downside in Soybean likely to remain limited on support of weaker Rupee and Festive demand. Palm oil imports by China from Malaysia during Sep 1-20 jumped 58.11% to 178,432 tons compared to 112,850 tons in the same period a year ago. Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish ahead of Festive season. RMSEED at NCDEX (Oct) is likely to witness trend reversal above Rs. 3770/qtl level. NCDEX (Oct) Castor extended losses on profit booking. Demand for Castor seed from consuming industries such as soap and shippers are robust, which likely to keep Castor prices supportive. MCX (Sep) Mentha Oil traded sideways on profit booking; fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand.
� OTHER
COMPLEX
Kapas futures (April) is likely to plunge towards 840 levels. Cotton prices are exhibiting a bearish tone in the spot markets across Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh due to continued lackluster demand from ginners. Ginners are not very aggressive in procuring cotton from the market due to expectations of more correction ahead amid prospects of better production than last year. Secondly, the spinners have sufficient stocks to meet their near term demand and hence off take in cotton is expected to remain subdued. Further, poor off take in the yarn market amid sluggish retail sales of the garment industry has curbed the buying enthusiasm of leading spinners other than small lots deals taking place on an irregular basis or rather as and when needed. Mentha oil futures (Sept) may witness a consolidation in the range of 1150-1200 levels. At the spot markets, though demand is slow, but downside in the commodity is limited as crop and carry over from previous season was lower, which is likely to support prices in days to come. At present, the business activity in Mentha oil market is said to be poor with sellers more than buyer’s due to sluggish export demand. Guar seed futures (Oct) is expected to trade
with an upside bias in the range of 3680-3820 levels. Crushers demand for Guar seed is hand-to-mouth as they are waiting for more clearer picture about production, as market participants have pegged crop around 7-8 lakh tons only due to lower acreage and poor yield amid adverse weather conditions during growth stages. Demand for Guar gum said to slow since last few weeks, but the market participants.NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl witnessed recovery from lower levels due to short covering. Kapas and Cotton prices at futures traded volatile due to short covering. Downside in Kapas likely to remain limited from current levels on support of lower levels buying. NCDEX (Oct) Chana settled below crucial support of Rs.5950/qtl which likely to create some pressure on prices in coming sessions. However, downside likely o remain limited on support of festive demand. Guar futures traded down due to profit booking. Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Oct) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely to remain firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised to the traders. Gujarat's Groundnut sowing dropped to 1.6 million hectare till Sep 18 during current crop year compared to 1.64 million hectare in the same period a year ago, data released by Directorate of Agriculture.
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW SOYABEAN NCDEX Soybean (Oct) is consolidating in a narrow range of Rs.3050 - 3155 for the past two weeks and either side breach could be decisive. Looking at the prior trend, short-term bias remains weak as long as price stays below Rs.3155 / 3200 mark. Short-term supports are placed at Rs.3050 / 2980 level. Selling on rise is advised.
GUARSEED NCDEX Guarseed (Oct) may consolidate within Rs.3585 - 3950 zone. The 14-period RSI is flat and closer to 50 mark indicating sideways movement. Strong supports are placed at Rs.3720 / 3585 whereas short-term resistances are at Rs.3855 / 3950.
JEERA NCDEX Jeera (Oct) continues to trade in a very narrow range of Rs.19500 - 20300 and there is no clear direction yet. Strong supports are placed at Rs.19500 / 18750 whereas Rs.20000 / 20300 are expected to act as resistances. Either side sustained breach of the mentioned levels could be decisive.
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