✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31 MAR 2016
112.65
111.30
109.95
109.05
108.60
107.70
107.25
105.90
104.55
COPPER
29 APR 2016
360.50
349.30
338.10
332.60
326.90
321.40
315.70
304.50
293.30
CRUDE OIL
18 MAR 2016
2838
2662
2486
2401
2310
2225
2134
1958
1782
GOLD
05APR 2016
31127
30553
29979
29658
29405
29084
28831
28257
27683
LEAD
31 MAR 2016
131.45
127.60
123.70
122.30
119.90
118.45
116
112.20
108.30
NATURAL GAS 28 MAR 2016 137.30 132.30 127.30 124.50 122.30 119.50 117.30 112.30
107.30
NICKEL
31 MAR 2016
625.10
613.10
601.10
595.20
589.10
583.20
577.10
565.10
553.10
SILVER
05 MAY 2016
40070
38998
37926
37258
36854
36186
35782
34710
33638
ZINC
31 MAR 2016
129.50
126.70
123.90
122.60
121.10
119.80
118.30
115.50
112.70
PP
S1
S3
S4
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
ALUMINIUM
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
S2
31 MAR 2016 116.90
114
111.10
109.65
108.15 106.75
105.30 102.40
99.50
325.70 319.10
311.10 296.40
281.80
COPPER
29 APR 2016
369.70
355
340.40
333.70
CRUDE OIL
18 MAR 2016
3116
2836
2556
2436
2276
2156
1996
1716
1436
GOLD
05 APR 2016
32763
31628
30493
29915
29358
28780
28223
27088
25953
LEAD
31 MAR 2016 136.95
131.15
125.35
123.10
119.55 117.30
113.75 107.95
102.15
NATURAL GAS
28 MAR 2016 156.30
145.60
134.90
128.30
124.20 117.60
113.50 102.80
92.10
NICKEL
. 31 MAR 2016 684.20
653.50
622.80
606
592.10 575.30
561.40 530.70
500
SILVER
05 MAY 2016
42530
40720
38910
37750
37100
35290
131
125.95
123.60
120.90 118.60
ZINC
31 MAR 2016 136.05
35940
33480
31670
115.80 110.80
105.75
WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL CRUDEOIL MAR BELOW 2219 TGT 2118 SL 2321 BUY ZINC MAR ABOVE 121.70 TGT 123.70 SL 119.65
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL ZINC MAR BELOW 120 TGT 118 SL 122.10 - TGT ACHEIVED
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
29 MAR 2016 69.6 69.45 5
69.30
69.15
69.10
69
68.90
68.70
68.55
GBPINR
29 MAR 2016 77.7 77.25 5
76.70
76.35
76.20
75.85
75.70
75.15
74.65
EURINR
29 MAR 2016 98.9 98.15 0
97.35
96.80
96.55
96.05
95.75
95
94.20
JPYINR
29 MAR 2016 62.3 61.95 5
61.55
61.35
61.20
61
60.80
60.45
60.05
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
USDINR
29 MAR 2016 70.4 69.95 0
69.50
69.25
69
68.80
68.55
68.10
67.60
GBPINR
29 MAR 2016 79.5 78.40 0
77.30
76.65
76.15
75.55
75.05
73.95
72.85
EURINR
29 MAR 2016 105. 102.80 70
99.85
98.10
96.90
95.15
94
91.05
88.10
JPYINR
29 MAR 2016 64.2 63.20 0
62.20
61.70
62.20
60.70
60.20
59.25
58.25
WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL EURINR MAR BELOW 75.35 TGT 74.70 SL 76.10 SELL JPYINR MAR BELOW 60.80 TGT 60.40 SL 61.30
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY EURINR MAR ABOVE 77 TGT 78 SL 76 - NOT EXECUTED.
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
SYOREFIDR
20 APR 2016
SYBEANIDR
20 APR 2016
3966
3897
3828
3798
3759
3729
3690
3621
3552
RMSEED
20 APR 20165
4061
4020
3979
3960
3938
3919
3897
3856
3815
JEERAUNJHA
20 APR 2016
14653 14498 14343
14251
14188 14096 14033 13878
13723
CHANA
20 APR 2016
4546
643.50 636.75
R2 630.
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
627.60 623.30 620.80 616.50 609.80
S4 603
4442
4338
4298
4234
4194
4130
4026
3922
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
SYOREFIDR
20 APR 2016
SYBEANIDR
20 APR 2016
4179
4045
3911
3840
3777
3706
3643
3509
3375
RMSEED
20 APR 2016
4199
4109
4019
3980
3929
3890
3839
3749
3659
JEERAUNJHA
20 APR 2016
15560 15095 14630
14395
14165 13930 13700 13235
12770
CHANA
20 APR 2016
4711
4318
4213
3715
690.45 668.55 646.65 635.90 624.75
4545
4379
614
4152
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL JEERA APR BELOW 14900 TGT 14560 SL 15200 BUY RM SEED APR ABOVE 3970 TGT 4040 SL 3897
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 6440 TGT 6320 SL 6555 - TGT ACHIEVED
602.85 580.95
4047
3881
559.05
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � Bullion Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday, as the dollar and global shares rose, but fund buying persisted as investors expected a G20 summit would produce little in the way of a coordinated stimulus program. Financial leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions and a lack of wider consensus on how to fix the problems. Concerns that a slowing global economy could eventually push the United States into recession eased as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected in the fourth quarter. Despite Friday's losses, gold has rediscovered its role as a shelter for risk averse investors. Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the top bullion exchange traded fund, held steady on Thursday, after rising to their highest since March 2015 on Wednesday. Economists had expected fourth quarter GDP growth to be revised down to 0.4%. The positive surprise underpinned the dollar and sent gold prices sharply lower. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish stances in COMEX gold to a one-year high in the week to Feb. 23, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.27 percent to 762.41 tonnes on Friday, the highest in about a year. With US economy staying on the sweet spot the possibilities of further interest rate hikes in this year have rose significantly from the beginning of this month, which has started to put pressure on gold prices . Domestically we have a big day as the government is going to present the general budget for the year 2016-2017, where it is expected to announce a policy to curb the gold imports which is putting burden on the current account deficit of the nation. Amidst the big economic event the markets can turn volatile as the prices on MCX are already trading at a discount in comparison to the COMEX prices in anticipation of a possible import duty cut .For the day we recommend a range based trade in gold.
� Energy MCX crude oil prices on Friday gained more than 5%, registering at Rs.2316/bbl for March month contract.On weekly basis, WTI and Brent crude oil for April month contract gained around 3.20% and 6.30% respectively, whereas MCX crude oil for March month contract gained around 5%.Crude oil prices last week showed some relief as the market witnessed products side inventory levels moving down. Rest other than the products side inventories, crude stocks and stocks at Cushing was most negative. Cushing stocks moved more than 65 million barrels and are near to its threshold levels.Overall crude stockpiles as per last week crossed 507 million barrels, which is all time high levels. Apart from this, if we see the fall in Baker Hughes rig count data, it’s quite supportive for crude prices in long term. 10 continuous weekly fall in active crude oil rigs have left just 400 operational rigs in the US region. Average levels as shown on right hand side have gone down from a couple of months. International agencies are predicting the same to continue its downtrend till 2017, which is actually good for crude oil prices. Apart from this, refinery maintenance shutdown period is going on in the US region, during which they will produce less products and thus inventory withdrawals can be seen and also gasoline demand will surge. U.S. natural gas futures slid Friday on steady forecasts for two more weeks of warmer-than-normal weather, a day after the prior front month contract expired at its lowest level since 1999. Heating demand since the start of the industry's November-March winter season was running about 12 percent below normal in the lower 48 U.S. states due to the warming effect of the El Nino weather pattern. Meteorologists predict that warmth will continue into March, with heating demand expected to be 26 percent
below normal, according to Thomson Reuters Analytic. Despite the lack of heating demand, however, consumers have used about 1 percent more gas than usual so far this winter as the power sector burns record levels of the fuel due to its low price compared with coal, which carries higher transport and environmental costs.
� Base Metal Copper prices surged on Friday to their highest level in more than three months as investors hoped for a recovery in metals demand following stronger than expected U.S. economic data and a G20 policymakers meeting. Industrial metals joined rallies in oil and share markets as investors put fears about a struggling global economy on the back burner. U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in January while fourth quarter economic growth was revised up to 1 percent, higher than expected. Some analysts were wary, however, due to concern about growth in top metals consumer China. Copper demand growth in China slowed last year to about 2 percent and is not expected to improve significantly this year. China accounts for about half of global demand estimated at around 22 million tonnes. The metals market appeared to shrug off a firmer U.S. currency, which makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms, while oil rose as traders reversed bets on lower prices. Stock markets rose as G20 policymakers meeting in Shanghai sought common ground on how to reboot a struggling global economy in the face of renewed financial and political risks. Setting the tone for the Shanghai meeting of the Group of 20, China's central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, said Beijing still had the room and tools to support the world's second largest economy Industrial prices surged on Friday to their highest level in more than three months as investors hoped for a recovery in metals demand following stronger than expected U.S. economic data and a G20 policymakers meeting. The Baltic Exchange confirmed on Friday it had received a number of "exploratory approaches" after the Singapore Exchange Ltd revealed it was seeking to buy the business which has been the hub of the global shipping market for centuries. The zinc price has pushed above its sister metal lead for the first time since November and is likely to remain ascendant in coming months as speculators step up zinc buying on forecasts of shortages while l
� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Agri Sector Eye on Budget 2016 The Budget needs to outline measures to restore the health of the rural economy without increasing unproductive subsidy spend. Rating firm CRISIL highlight six broad areas that require innovative policy solutions: 1. Expand irrigation cover: In India, poor irrigation cover exposes agriculture to shocks from uneven rainfall patterns. At the all-India level, irrigation covers only 46.9% of the total cropped area, exposing the rest to monsoon shocks. Around 84% of pulses, 80% of horticulture, 72% of oil seeds, 64% of cotton and 42% of cereals are cultivated in unirrigated conditions. The combined spending of Center and states on irrigation has been a mere 2% per year of their total spending in the last five years.
2. Extend direct benefits transfer (DBT) scheme to food and fertiliser subsidy: A critical step to funnelling resources into agriculture will require plugging leakages in the existing public distribution system (PDS). As
per a 2015 study by Gulati and Saini3, 46.7% of the off-taken grain is leaked from PDS. This is the gap between the grains off-taken by each state and consumption by the targeted consumer for the year 2011-12. Extending the DBT scheme to include food subsidy in addition to LPG transfers will help curb losses due to leakages and result in significant savings for the government.
3. Farm investment versus farm subsidy: After coming to power, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government promised a technology-driven second Green Revolution in India. Encourage production by making agriculture profitable: Profitability at the farm is low and declining as cost of inputs continues to soar. And if that weren’t enough, input and output cost dynamics have been turning unfavorable year after year, reducing the farmer’s profit margin.
4. Big push to crop insurance: One way to mitigate the pain from crop losses due to weather shocks is through crop insurance. But in India, coverage remains low. For example, the Universal National Crop Insurance Scheme, which merges all existing schemes, only covers 25% of all farmers and 20% of the area.An AssochamSkymet survey (April 2015) found that crop insurance is not a natural choice for farmers. Only 19% of respondents have their crops insured, exposing the rest to the vagaries of monsoon. Of the uninsured, 46% were aware but not interested, 24% said the facility was not available to them, while the rest (11%) could not afford to pay the insurance premium.
✍India to deliver 8,500 MT imported Pulses shortly: India has released total 116334.85 MT of pulses seized as pert of the de-hoarding operations, in the market as on February 23, 2016, Ram Vilas Paswan, Food Minister, informed Rajyasabha in a written reply on Friday. The Minister added that import of pulses is being made by Government through MMTC. Delivery of 8,500 MT pulses is expected shortly. ndia has been under severe pressure owing to the shortfall in pulses production and subsequent rise in prices. The rise in the prices of pulses is due to several factors leading to demand & supply mismatch. Hoarding is one such factor. De-hoarding operations are carried out by the State Governments under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. All the States have been requested to enforce the Act effectively, the Minister said.As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2015-16, India expects total pulses production of 17.33 million tonnes during 2015-16 is marginally higher than the previous year’s production of 17.15 million tonnes. India imports pulses from countries like Canada. India is Canada's biggest export market for pulses. India is the largest importer of Canadian lentils so far this year. Analysts from Canada expects India will continue to be the strongest importer for the rest of 2016 as well as next year.
✍Chana During Friday’s trading session NCDEX Chana April opened negative but later it traded upside during most part of the day and ended the session positive only. NCDEX Chana April futures ended the day at Rs 4258 per quintal which is 1.8% up against the previous day. Economic survey 2015 – 20 showed that in India most of the land dedicated to growing pulses in each state is unirrigated and the national output of pulses comes predominantly from un-irrigated land. According to government sources, 116334.85 tonnes of pulses have been disposed off in the market out of 126758.59 tonnes seized from hoarders. In Maharashtra, 78,232.35 tonnes of pulses have been offloaded out of 80,167.44 tonnes seized from hoarders, while in Karnataka,
23,708.34 tonnes have been disposed out of 25,545.83 tonnes. Pulses output is expected to increase marginally to 17.33 million tonnes in 2015-16 crop year from last year's 17.15 million tonnes though it's still not sufficient to meet domestic demand. Every year around 4-5 million tonnes of pulses is getting imported in the country. According to the Canadian Grain Commission Canadian pea and lentil exports are slowing down, with only 10,200 tonnes of peas and 600 tonnes of lentils moved during the week ended February 21.
✍Turmeric Turmeric futures extended their bearish trade on back of negative sentiments prevailing in the market. Most active contract opened lower; however traded in both directions for major parts of previous trade. Turmeric April futures closed the trade at Rs. 8710 per quintal, with a loss of 0.6% w.r.t previous close. During previous trade at Nizamabad, turmeric traded at Rs. 4025-931 for Finger variety and 4011-8279 for Bulb and arrivals were reported at 702.9 tonnes. Turmeric Erode finger and Bulb traded steady in range of Rs. 9300-9500 and Rs.9000-9200 per quintal respectively. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 279 tons as on 26th Feb 2016.
✍Jeera Jeera futures resumed down during Friday’s trading session after the two days of recovery. Long liquidation by the investors along with improved supplies of fresh crops in the spot markets pulled down the prices from higher levels. Therefore, jeera future prices traded and settled the day on at Rs.14130 per quintal with 0.4% losses. On spot market front, Unjha spot market in Gujarat, prices hovered in the range of Rs.13700- 17000 per quintal. While at Rajkot market, prices were in the range of Rs.12400- 15500 per kg. The total arrivals reported at Rajkot market were around 180 tonnes. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 230 tonnes as on 26 Feb 2016.
✍Caradamom Cardamom futures resumed its trade in downward direction tracking weak supply and demand factors in the market.Cardamom March futures closed the trade at Rs. 666.10 per kg, losing 0.93% from its previous close while the April futures closed with loss of 0.58% from its previous trade. Expectation of pick up in export demand limited the major losses for turmeric futures. During previous auction, cardamom arrivals were at 108300.2 kgs, higher by 87704.8 kgs from previous auction. Prices traded at Rs. 950 per kg, up by Rs. 93 from its previous price for premium and Rs. 581.68 per kg on an average.Demand is good for cardamom since almost complete daily arrivals are being sold. However, lack of availability of quality material for export is limiting exporters from active buying in the market. As on 25th Feb 2016, MCX warehouses have 32.700 MT eligible for delivery.
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