Commodity research report 31 august 2015 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

117

113

109

107

105

103

101

97

93

30 NOV 2015 371

363

355

351

347

343

339

331

323

21 SEP 2015 3728 3467

3206

3105

2945

2844

2684

2423

2162

GOLD

05OCT 2015

2769 27322 1

26953

26788

26584

26419

26215

25846

25477

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

125

121

117

116

113

112

109

105

101

NATURAL GAS 25 SEP 2015

191

187

183

182

179

178

175

171

167

749

722

695

682

668

655

641

614

587

35279

34858

34247

33796

33215

32183

31151

124

122

119

117

114

109

104

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

EXPIRY DATE R4 30 SEP 2015

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3734 36311 3

ZINC

30 SEP 2015

129 134

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 SEP 2015

113

109

106

104

102

101

99

96

92

COPPER

30 NOV 2015

389

373

357

351

341

335

325

309

293

21 SEP 2015 3447

3207

2967

2878

2727

2638

2487

2247

2007

GOLD

05 OCT 2015 31752 30088

28424

27351

26760

25687

25096

23432

21768

LEAD

30 SEP 2015

125

120

115

113

110

108

105

100

95

NATURAL GAS 25 SEP 2015

202

194

186

182

178

174

170

162

154

795

748

701

684

654

637

607

560

37438

35747

34449

32758

31460

121

118

114

112

108

CRUDE OIL

NICKEL

30 SEP 2015

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 43416 40427

ZINC

30 SEP 2015

134

127

513

28471 25482 1014

95

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

591

585

579

576

573

570

567

561

555

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3259

3221

3183

3160

3145

3122

3107

3069

3031

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4391

4331

4271

4238

4211

4178

4151

4091

4031

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

16770 16450

16130

15970

15810 15650 15490 15170

14850

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

5078

4981

4884

4849

4787

4752

4690

4593

4496

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4135

4109

4083

4070

4057

4044

4031

4005

3979

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

612

598

584

578

570

564

556

542

528

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3404

3312

3220

3179

3128

3087

3036

2944

2852

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4486

4405

4324

4276

4243

4195

4162

4081

4000

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

18203 17418

16633

16171

15848 15386 15063 14278

13493

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

5354

5155

4956

4861

4757

4662

4558

4359

4160

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4370

4263

4156

4108

4049

4001

3942

3835

3728

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Gold Gold prices rose 0.79% to Rs 26,671 per 10 grammes in futures trade on friday as speculators created fresh positions, taking positive cues from global markets.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month December was up by Rs 209, or 0.79% to Rs 26,671 per 10 gm in a business turnover of eight lots.The metal for delivery in October moved up by Rs 202 or 0.77% to Rs 26,480 per 10 gm in a turnover of 216 lots.Market analysts said rise in the precious metal in global markets as prospects dimmed as market turmoil has delayed the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates.Globally, gold climbed as much as 0.6% to $1,131.80 an ounce in Singapore today

✍ Silver Silver fell 1.4 per cent to hit nearly three-week low on Thursday, following weak global demand trend.

In the spot trade here, silver fell Rs 500 to close at Rs 34,500 on Thursday, the level last seen on August 8. In London, however, silver was trading flat to quote at $14.20.“There has been weak silver demand from the industrial sector for over the last three–four years. But, the recent step by the Chinese government to strengthen its economy through pumping of fresh money into the system followed by yuan devaluation has created uncertainty for recovery in industrial production. Silver follows base metals. Therefore, the fall in base metals has direct co-relation with silver being nearly 66 per cent of global production finds application in various industries.

Most importantly, the US Fed’s latest statement of raising interest rate in the first quarter of calendar 2016, has also raised doubts on the recovery on the industrial sector. So, overall global silver consumption for industrial use is likely to remain lower, which pushes its price down.

“Also, the gold-silver ratio, the barometer for the future bullion price movement, indicates gold price to remain firm going forward. Gold will outperform silver mainly because of weak global economic sentiment and volatility in equity markets,” said an analyst. Gold-silver ratio currently stands at nearly 80, the highest since economic downturn in 2008. Gold fell by 0.86% or Rs 230 to close on Thursday at Rs 26,470 per 10gms here.Meanwhile, base metals fell sharply to hit multi year low on the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) on subdued demand from the world's largest consumer, China. Experts are eyeing a recovery in Chinese demand on reversal in base metals prices.

✍ Zinc Zinc futures were up 1.30% to Rs 117.15 per kg as speculators created positions amid a firming trend in base metals overseas and better domestic demand.Zinc for delivery in August was up

by Rs 1.50, or 1.30%, to Rs 117.15 per kg, with a business turnover of 676 lots in futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange.

The metal for delivery in September also rose Rs 1.50, or 1.29% to Rs 117.95 per kg, with a business turnover of 274 lots.Marketmen said besides a firming trend at domestic spot market, strength in base metals at the London Metal Exchange supported the upside in zinc prices at futures trade as US economic data that beat analysts' estimates boosted the outlook for metals demand

� Copper Taking positive cues from overseas markets, copper prices moved up by 1.12% to Rs 332.80 per kg in futures trade on Thursday as speculators created fresh positions.Besides, pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market supported the upside.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August month rose by Rs 3.70, or 1.12% to Rs 332.80 per kg in business turnover of 982 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month November traded higher by Rs 3.05, or 0.92% to Rs 336.25 per kg in 121 lots.Analysts attributed the rise in copper at futures trade to a firm global trend after comments from a Federal Reserve member added to doubts about the US raising interest rates in September and as China's stock market halted the steepest five-day rout since 1996.Meanwhile, copper for delivery in three months traded 1.3% higher at $4,996.50 a metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

� Crude oil Crude oil futures rose 2.37% to Rs 2,855 per barrel on friday as speculators widened positions amid a firm trend in Asia.

Crude oil for delivery in September month contracts traded higher by Rs 66 or 2.37% to Rs 2,855 per barrel with a business turnover of 2,228 lots in futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).The oil for delivery in far-month October also moved up by Rs 63 or 2.20% to Rs 2,925 per barrel with a business volume of 86 lots.Analysts attributed the rise in crude oil futures to a firming trend in Asian trade today where it extended gains following a 10% price surge in the previous session fuel-led by strong US economic data,Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery rose 52 cents at $43.08, while Brent crude for October gained 23 cents to $47.79 in late-morning trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Castor seed As of August 14, the area under castor seeds has decreased 31 per cent compared to a year earlier.According to data provided by the central government’s agriculture department, as on August 20, sowing of castor had been carried out across 501,000 hectares, against 730,000 hectares in the corresponding period last year.Sowing of castor seeds is usually carried out in the July-September period.In Gujarat, the commodity was sown across 304,000 hectares, down 34 per cent from 458,000 hectares a year earlier, while in Rajasthan, the area stood at 101,000 hectares, compared with 140,000 hectares in the year-ago period.

Experts say lower export demand for castor oil and higher stock positions restricted castor prices in the domestic market, which led to a change in the sentiment towards the crop. It is estimated as of now, India has about 500,000 tonnes of castor stock.According to data provided by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), castor oil export stood at 459,374 tonnes in 2014-15, against 472,255 tonnes in 2013-14. Export during April-May this year increased to 90,396 tonnes from 85,837 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Traders say export demand has gradually fallen since May.Last year, many cotton and groundnut farmers in Gujarat had shifted to castor due to a weak monsoon. As result, the overall castor-sowing area increased to about a million hectares from 750,000 hectares in 2013. For 2014-15, castor production is estimated at about 1.50million tonnes.

✍ Turmeric Turmeric prices shot up by 1.72 per cent to Rs 8,156 per quintal in futures trade on friday as speculators widened positions, amid pick up in domestic demand and tight supplies from producing belts.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, turmeric for delivery in September jumped up by Rs 128, or 1.72 per cent to Rs 8,156 per quintal with an open interest of 21,785 lots.The October contract traded higher by Rs 122, or 1.48 per cent to Rs 8,388 per quintal in 10,730 lots.Analysts said speculators enlarged positions, taking positive cues from spot market following upsurge in demand against restricted supplies from producing region mainly pushed up turmeric prices at futures trade.

✍ Refined soya oil Refined soya oil prices were down by 0.32 per cent to Rs 567 per 10 kg in futures trade on Friday as traders trimmed position, taking negative cues from spot market on low demand.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in far-month November fell Rs 1.80, or 0.32 per cent to Rs 567 per 10 kg with an open interest of 41,750 lots.The October contract was trading lower by Rs 1.55, or 0.27 per cent to Rs 572 per 10 kg in 83,350 lots.Analysts said offloading of positions by participants amid weak trend at spot market on sluggish demand against sufficient stocks position mainly kept pressure on refined soya oil

prices at futures trade.

� Chana Chana prices closed higher 0.88 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for September 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,809 per quintal, up by 0.88 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,771 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,767. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,822.Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices.

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