Commodity research report 31 july 2017 ways2capital

BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold on MCX settled up 0.32% at 28476 as investors continue to pile into the precious metal amid expectations that Fed could keep interest rates low for longer than initially anticipated. Fed kept interest rates unchanged but expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon." The U.S. Senate voted almost unanimously to slap new sanctions on Russia, putting President Donald Trump in a tough position by forcing him to take a hard line on Moscow or veto the legislation and infuriate his own party. Physical gold demand globally rose to 1,895 tonnes in the first half of 2017, up 17 percent from the same period last year. But the market saw a surplus of 138 tonnes in the first six months compared with a balanced market in the same period last year, despite supplies shrinking more than five percent to 2,160 tonnes. That was mainly due to physically-backed exchange traded funds, where demand fell to 145 tonnes from 569 tonnes. India's falling trade deficit is giving the world's secondbiggest gold consumer room to lower its import duty on bullion, a commerce ministry official said Holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.45 percent to 791.88 tonnes on Thursday from 795.42 tonnes on Wednesday. Technically Gold market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 14.39% to settled at 4532 while prices up 92 rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28359 and below same could see a test of 28243 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28599, a move above could see prices testing 28723.

GOLD CHART

Chart Details - On the Above given daily chart of Gold has Applied the Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR, The Gold has already broken the upper level of 28600 which was crucial Resistance level for the Precious Metal, Gold futures traded marginally higher on the day for the second day in a row. However, in each of the last two trading days, market participants have moved pricing dramatically lower intraday. More importantly, the intraday lows of each day were met with a “buy the dip� mentality, taking prices off the lows, resulting in closing prices near the intraday high.As of 4 o’clock EDT, gold futures have settled at $1215.70, up $2.50 on the day (+0.21%). Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28359 and below same could see a test of 28243 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28599, a move above could see prices testing 28723.

Monday, 31 July 2017

SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.45% at 38263 as a softening in the Federal Reserve's confidence on inflation added to expectations that policy tightening would be glacial at best. The recognition of soft inflation added to expectations that the Fed's plan to raise interest rates a third time this year might be delayed. As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates Wednesday, keeping its benchmark rate in a target range of 1%-1.25% while expressing concerns about the slowdown in inflation, pushing the dollar to fourteen-month lows. The dollar recovered, however, after economic reports showed durable goods orders for June topped expectations, offsetting a larger-than-expected rise in initial jobless claims. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims rose by more than expected to 244,000 in the week ended July 23, missing forecasts of a 7,000 decline. In a separate report, core durable goods orders rose by 6.5% in June, the Commerce Department said, reflecting a sharp jump in orders for transportation equipment. The U.S. Senate voted almost unanimously to slap new sanctions on Russia, putting President Donald Trump in a tough position by forcing him to take a hard line on Moscow or veto the legislation and infuriate his own party. Technically Silver market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.23% to settled at 17658 while prices up 172 rupees. Now MCX Silver is getting support at 38061 and below same could see a test of 37860 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38581, a move above could see prices testing 38900.

SILVER CHART

Detail of Chart -On the above given daily Chart of of Silver is Suggesting more gains till the next Significance Resistance level of 39200, Break above this will the Precious Metal will move towards 39134-39312 in near term. Now MCX Silver is getting support at 38061 and below same could see a test of 37860 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38581, a move above could see prices testing 38900.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

130

128

126

124

122

120

121

120

119

COPPER

31- AUG-2017

423

419

415

413

411

409

407

403

399

CRUDE OIL

21-AUG-17

3341

3285

3229

3202

3173

3146

3117

3061

3005

GOLD

04-AUG-2017

29112

28912

28712

28629

28512

28429

28312

28112

27912

LEAD

31-AUG-17

153

151

149

148

147

146

145

143

141

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

202

198

194

192

190

188

186

182

178

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

701

684

667

659

650

642

633

616

599

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

39806

39341

38876

38713

38411

38248

37946

37481

37016

ZINC

31-AUG-17

187

185

183

182

181

180

179

177

1755

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

136

132

128

126

122

120

118

116

112

COPPER

31-AUG-17

481

454

427

412

400

385

373

346

319

21-AUG-17

3733

3469

3274

3142

3073

2947

2809

2677

2545

GOLD

04-AUG-2017

29432

29126

28820

28725

28514

28419

28208

27902

27596

LEAD

31-AUG-17

155

152

149

145

144

143

142

140

137

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

211

204

197

195

190

188

183

176

169

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

760

719

678

657

637

616

596

555

514

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

41381

40334

39287

38829

38240

37782

37193

36146

35099

ZINC

31-AUG-17

203

195

187

182

179

174

171

163

155

CRUDE OIL

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

64.62

64.46

64.32

64.24

64.12

63.96

63.88

63.64

63.42

EURINR

29-AUG-17

79.74

78.68

77.36

76.66

75.52

74.18

73.69

73.18

72.68

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

86.87

84.25

82.84

80.78

79.03

77.56

74.93

74.08

73.95

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

58.86

58.42

58.04

57.46

57.12

56.96

56.43

55.45

54.12

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

65.92

65.68

65.48

64.27

64.13

63.91

63.75

63.51

63.33

EURINR

29-AUG-17

80.82

79.01

78.07

77.63

75.92

74.86

73.12

72.18

71.89

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

92.36

90.56

88.45

85.92

83.65

82.01

80.05

78.85

76.45

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

59.18

58.80

57.06

56.72

56.12

55.82

55.17

55.03

54.18

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

657

653

649

647

645

643

641

637

633

SYBEANIDR

18-AUG -2017

3172

3129

3086

3067

3043

3024

3000

2975

2914

RMSEED

18-AUG -2017

3935

3852

3769

3731

3686

3648

3603

3520

3437

JEERAUNJHA 18-AUG -2017

19986

19701

19416

19263

19131

18978

18846

18561

18276

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

3853

3746

3639

3583

3532

3476

3425

3318

3211

TMC

18-AUG -2017

7886

7638

7390

7261

7142

7013

6894

6646

6398

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

688

673

658

650

643

635

628

613

598

SYBEANIDR

18-AUG -2017

3320

3221

3122

3023

2979

2924

2825

2726

2543

RMSEED

18-AUG -2017

4098

3965

3832

3756

3699

3623

3566

3433

3300

JEERAUNJHA

18-AUG -2017

21305

20645

19985

19650

19325

18990

18665

18005

17345

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

4110

3904

3698

3601

3492

3395

3286

3080

2874

TMC

18-AUG -2017

8545

8061

7577

7399

7093

6915

6609

6125

5641

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) � GOLD Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday as investors eyed demand prospects in China as a tad weaker than expected after official manufacturing and services PMI estimates for July. Gold for August delivery eased 0.06% to $1,267.69 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For last week, the precious metal was up 1.08%, its third consecutive weekly gain. The CFLP manufacturing PMI reached 51.4, a tad below expected, but still in expansion, while a 54.5 for the services PMI also was een as steady. The private Caixin manufacturing reading is due on Tuesday with a reading of 50.4 seen. Any level above 50 denotes expansion. The services sector accounted for over half of China\'s economy last year as rising wages give Chinese consumers the opportunity to shop, travel and eat out more. China\'s leaders are counting on growth in services and consumption to rebalance their economic growth. Earlier, Japan reported industrial production data for June rose 1.6%, compared to an expected provisional 1.7% gain. Later, Australia reported private sector credit rose 0.6%, compared with a gain of 0.4% seen in June.

Gold prices rose to a six-week high on Friday after weaker than expected U.S. inflation dampened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will aggressively raise interest rates and North Korea fired a ballistic missile, triggering safe-haven buying. Data on U.S. second quarter gross domestic product and labor costs also pushed the dollar lower, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. "It showed a big fall in annual inflation rates across the board ... so there is no urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates. Gold is sensitive to rising rates because they push up bond yields, making non-yielding gold less attractive, and tend to boost the dollar. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.8 percent at $1,268.84 an ounce by 1:50 p.m. EDT, after touching $1,270.38, the highest since June 14. It was on track to rise for a third week in a row. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for August delivery settled up 0.7 percent at $ 1,268.40. North Korea fired a missile on Friday in an unusual late-night test launch, and details announced by Japanese officials and media suggested it could be an intercontinental ballistic missile. has to be at least a modest factor here that risk is rising in North Korea. We're not off to the races, we're not above $1,300 yet, but certainly there is room for speculators to increase their position," Gold prices in India this week recorded the biggest discount in seven months as a rebound in prices curtailed retail demand, while lower premiums in other Asian centres failed to lure customers amid seasonal slowdown. "In the local market, prices have risen due to the GST and a rally in overseas prices.

Consumers are not comfortable with the price rise," As part of a new nationwide sales tax regime that kicked in on July 1, the GST on gold has jumped to 3 percent from 1.2 percent previously. demand remains weak in July. This year, the price rise has added further pressure," Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $4 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, compared to a discount of $1 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Jewellers are not making purchases due to

weak retail demand. They have sufficient inventory for next few weeks," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. India's gold imports could fall below 35 tonnes in July, consultancy GFMS said. top consumer China, premiums ranged from $5 to $10 an ounce. Premiums were slightly below $10 last week. The international spot gold benchmark XAU= was trading near six-week highs hit on Thursday as the dollar plummeted after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it would keep to a slow path of monetary tightening. In Hong Kong, premiums were between 50 to 70 cents, compared with the 60 cents to $1 range in the previous week. "Demand is not expected to come back in substantial levels until a couple of weeks into August. Physical demand dipped in Singapore as well with premiums ranging between 70 cents and a dollar as against the 75 cents to $1.10 level last week.

Gold prices held steady on Friday, as investors locked in profits from the precious metal’s rally to sixweek highs on Thursday and as markets awaited the release of U.S. second-growth data due later in the day. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery were little changed at $1,259.28, off the previous session’s six-week high of 1,265.00. The August contract ended Thursday’s session 0.85% higher at $1,260.00 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,243.20, Wednesday’s low and resistance at $1,265.00, Thursday’s high. The dollar remained under pressure after the Fed said on Wednesday that inflation remains below its 2% target even as near-term risks to the economic outlook appear “roughly balanced.” In the past, the Fed judged that weakness in inflation was transitory. The central bank’s cautious tone on inflation sparked fresh uncertainty over the possibility of a third rate hike this year.

The Fed also said it expected to start shrinking its balance sheet "relatively soon", prompting expectations for an announcement in September. The greenback was also weakened by data on Thursday showing that initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 244,000 last week. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 7,000 to 241,000 last week.

Gold fell from a six-week high on Thursday, pressured by the dollar's bounce on solid U.S. economic data and as traders digested the Federal Reserve's Wednesday statement that showed it was closer to paring its balance sheet. The U.S. central bank appeared less confident than it had about inflation picking up but said it expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon" in a sign of confidence in the U.S. economy. gold XAU= was flat at $1,260.86 an ounce by 2:26 p.m. EDT, after peaking at $1,264.99, its highest since June 15. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for August delivery settled up 0.9 percent at $1,260, after falling in the prior session before the Fed released its statement. The dollar turned higher after data showed shipments of key U.S.-made capital goods increased in June for a fifth straight month. The resulting rise in the greenback pressures dollar-denominated gold since it makes the metal more expensive for investors paying in other currencies. "The rebound in the dollar is putting a little pressure on gold today. "The bond buy back policy will most likely go into effect, and we should see the long end of the curve start to rise and that could put a little bit of pressure on gold and a touch of a boost on the dollar index."

Fed Funds futures implied on Thursday that traders see a 49 percent chance of the Fed raising interest

rates in December. that the Fed sees the near-term risk of the economy is neutral, I don't think the market will expect a third rate hike in the foreseeable future or at least in this quarter.

India's falling trade deficit is giving the world's second-biggest gold consumer room to lower its import duty on bullion, a commerce ministry official said on Thursday. A reduction in import duty would make gold cheaper in the local market and could boost demand, supporting global prices XAU= now trading near their highest in six weeks. Spot gold prices are rebounding this month after posting their first monthly loss for 2017 in June. A lower import duty would also help in curbing gold smuggling, which the industry says is likely to rise after the hike in sales tax on gold jewellery from July 1. the current account deficit is improving and this decision (to reduce import duty) should be taken into the budget. The commerce ministry is recommending a reduction in the gold import duty to the finance ministry, Dwivedi said, although it was not clear how soon a decrease could be enacted. A finance ministry spokesman declined to comment on the matter. India raised import duties on gold to 10 percent in a series of hikes to August 2013, looking to curb demand to narrow a gaping current account deficit.

India's trade deficit INTRD=ECI narrowed more-than-expected to $12.96 billion in June as gold imports nearly halved from a month earlier. commerce ministry has "been saying the ideal rate for the industry would be 2 percent. It can be brought down in a phased manner or in one go.

Physical gold demand globally rose to 1,895 tonnes in the first half of 2017, up 17 percent from the same period last year. But the market saw a surplus of 138 tonnes in the first six months compared with a balanced market in the same period last year, despite supplies shrinking more than five percent to 2,160 tonnes. That was mainly due to physically-backed exchange traded funds, where demand fell to 145 tonnes from 569 tonnes.

"After the rollercoaster ride of events for the gold market in 2016, from a jewellers' strike to Brexit to Trump to demonetisation, 2017 has avoided similar market moving events in the first half. "The first half of this year has arguably been more of a reversion to normality ... with neither the highs of ETF demand or lows of seriously struggling Asian demand."

Demand in China, a top consumer, fell seven percent to 292.7 tonnes. In India, another major market, demand nearly doubled to 307.6 tonnes, ahead of a three percent tax levied from July 1. "Given the introduction of the Goods & Services Tax in India there is a relative hiatus in imports to that crucial market at present. "This is leaving gold prices susceptible to softness, not least as it is often Indian demand that responds positively to price weakness. GFMS expects to see gold prices fall below $1,200 an ounce over summer in the northern hemisphere before recovering to average around $1,256 an ounce in the last quarter of 2017, due to a "seasonal upturn in demand in Asia and a recovery in western investment".

Gold prices soared to the highest level in six weeks in European trade on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve's more cautious wording on the U.S. inflation outlook added to expectations that policy tightening would be glacial at best. Comex gold futures were at $1,262.82 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET, up $13.60, or about 1.1%. It touched its highest since June 15 at $1,265.14 earlier in the session. Gold

prices fell for a third-straight session on Wednesday, before turning higher in post-settlement trade as the U.S. dollar weakened in the wake of the Fed’s dovish policy statement. While the Fed said it expected to start shrinking its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon", the central bank also noted weakness in U.S. inflation more explicitly than before. The recognition of soft inflation added to expectations that the Fed's plan to raise interest rates a third time this year might be delayed. According to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, conviction for another rate hike before the end of the year has faded, with less than 40% of market players expecting another move by December.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets such as bullion. The dollar index fell to a 13-month low, while Treasury yields slipped, as investors wagered policy tightening in the U.S. would be glacial at best. Traders will eye data from the U.S. due later in the session to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy and how it will impact the Fed's view on monetary policy.

AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS. Monday, July 31 China is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

New Zealand is to produce a report on business confidence.

The euro zone is to publish a preliminary estimate of inflation, while Germany is to report on retail sales.

The UK is to publish data on net lending.

The U.S. is to release data on pending homes sales and business activity in the Chicago area.

Tuesday, August 1 China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI. The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on second quarter economic growth.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

The U.S. is to release data on personal spending and the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.

Wednesday, August 2 New Zealand is to release its quarterly jobs report.

Australia is to report on building approvals.

The UK is to release data on construction activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report.

Thursday, August 3 Australia is to report on the trade balance.

The UK is to release data on service sector activity.

The Bank of England is to announce its latest interest rate decision and publish its meeting minute’s along with its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney, along with other officials, is to hold a press conference to discuss the inflation report.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims, factory orders and the ISM is to publish its nonmanufacturing index.

Friday, August 4 The RBA is to publish its latest monetary policy statement, while Australia is to release data on retail sales.

Both Canada and the U.S. are to round up the week with data on trade and both countries are also set to release their monthly employment reports.

ENERGY Oil prices rose to a fresh two-month high on Monday, extending strong gains from last week as investors continued to cheer signs that the global market was starting to rebalance.The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract was at $49.95 a barrel by 3:25AM ET , up 24 cents, or around 0.5%. It touched its highest since May 30 at $50.06 earlier in the session. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London tacked on 23 cents to $52.45 a barrel, after touching $52.55, a level not seen since May 25.

WTI gained $3.94, or about 8.5%, last week, while Brent rose $4.46, or roughly 9.3%, the largest such jump since early December, as fresh pledges from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to respectively pull back on exports and output boosted sentiment. Data showing a fourth consecutive week of declines in U.S. crude inventories and signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production further added to optimism that the oil market was beginning to rebalance. Weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil edged higher by two to 766 last week, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil prices rose to their highest levels since May early on Monday as a dip in U.S. output tightened the market and the threat of sanctions against Venezuela kept traders on edge. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading up 18 cents or 0.3 percent at $52.70 per barrel at 0009 GMT. Prices earlier hit $52.76, the highest level since May 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $49.82 per barrel.

The gains put both crude benchmarks on track for six consecutive days of gains. Oil prices have risen nearly 10 percent since the last meeting of leading members by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers, including Russia, when the group discussed potential measures to further tighten oil markets. threatened to break through $50 per barrel, while Brent pushed above $52 per barrel as the fundamentals continue to suggest a more balanced crude oil market.

Crude prices inched higher in Asia on Monday ahead of China manufacturing and services PMI figures seen as reliable indicators of near-term demand prospects. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract rose 0.48% to $49.95 a barrel, while on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery was last quoted at $52.22 a barrel. Ahead the CFLP manufacturing PMI is expected to show a level of 51.6, a dip from 51.7 in June with a reading of 54.9 for the services PMI in the earlier month. The private Caixin manufacturing reading is due on Tuesday with a reading of 50.4 seen. Any level above 50 denotes expansion. Earlier, Japan reports industrial production data with June expected to show a provisional 1.7% gain. Last week, Oil prices settled higher for the fifth session in a row on Friday to log its biggest weekly gain this year as investors cheered signs that rising demand will offset excess supplies in the second half of the year. Fresh pledges from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to respectively pull back on exports and output boosted sentiment. Data showing a fourth consecutive week of declines in U.S. crude inventories and signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production further added to optimism that the oil market was beginning to rebalance. Weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil edged higher by two to 766 last week, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth.

Oil prices settled higher for the fifth session in a row on Friday to log its biggest weekly gain this year as investors cheered signs that rising demand will offset excess supplies in the second half of the year.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract tacked on 67 cents, or around 1.4%, to end at $49.71 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It touched its highest since May 30 at $49.81 earlier in the session.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery rallied $1.03, or 2%, to settle at $52.52 a barrel by close of trade, after touching a two-month peak of $52.70 earlier.

For the week, WTI gained $3.94, or about 8.5%, while Brent rose $4.46, or roughly 9.3%, the largest such jump since early December, as fresh pledges from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to respectively pull back on exports and output boosted sentiment.

Oil Friday hovered around eight-week highs ahead of U.S. weekly rig count data. U.S. crude was up 7 cents, or 0.14%, at $49.11 at 06:30 ET. Brent added 23 cents, or 0.45%, to $51.72. Oil was buoyed this week by a big draw in official U.S. crude inventories in the latest week.

Crude was also underpinned by Saudi Arabia's pledge to curb crude exports beginning next month. OPEC and non-OPEC producers may also extend an agreement to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day to

beyond March. Investors are looking to Baker Hughes rig count data due out later in the session.

U.S. oil remained at an eight-week high on Friday, as a continued decline in U.S. crude inventories added to optimism over a potential rebalancing of the market. U.S. crude futures for September delivery were up 0.10% at $44.14 a barrel, near the previous session’s eight-week peak of $49.24. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the September Brent gained 0.47% to $51.73 a barrel, the highest level since May 31. Oil prices strengthened after data on Wednesday showing a fourth consecutive week of declines in U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels at the end of last week to 483.4 million barrels, much more than the expected drop of around 2.6 million barrels. The report also showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels, compared to expectations for a much more modest decline of 0.6 million barrels. Oil is on track to score a weekly gain of more than 6% as fresh pledges from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to respectively pull back on exports and output boosted sentiment. Signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production in the wake of reduced spending plans for some oilfield services companies also added to the bullish momentum. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for August were up 0.19% at $1.649 a gallon, while August heating oil added 0.17% to $1.605 a gallon.

Oil prices edged lower on Friday but were still near eight-week highs, buoyed by a decline in U.S. inventories and OPEC's ongoing efforts to curb production. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $51.41 per barrel at 0651 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $ 48.94 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose to their highest levels since May 31 in the previous session, buoyed by a rally in U.S. gasoline futures after earlier support from OPEC's latest efforts to cut exports and a sharp fall in U.S. crude inventories. "Crude oil prices rose further as the focus remained on fundamentals. This week's better-than-expected inventory drawdown in the United States continued to support prices. U.S. crude stocks fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels in the week to July 21 due to strong refining activity and an increase in exports, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. "Following seasonal norms we expect further declines in crude inventories over August and September. Brimming U.S. crude supplies have been a challenge to production cuts to prop up prices led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S. crude oil production has been on the rise since mid-2016, but it dropped to 9.41 barrels per day in the week to July 21, from 9.43 million bpd the week before. The decline was mainly due to a fall in Alaskan output. Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said the market would watch U.S. rig count data for further signs of slowing drilling activity, as well as potential U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector. developments should be bullish for oil.

Oil prices extended a rally into a sixth day on Friday, hovering near 8-week highs on a decline in U.S. inventories and OPEC's ongoing efforts to curb production to ease a global glut. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 2 cents, or 0.04 percent, at $51.51 per barrel at 0059 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 3 cents, or 0.06 percent, at $49.07 per barrel."Crude oil prices rose further as the focus remained on fundamentals. This week's better-than-

expected inventory drawdown in the United States continued to support prices," U.S. crude stocks fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels in the week July 21 due to strong refining activity and an increase in exports, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Brimming U.S. crude supplies have been a challenge to production cuts to prop up prices led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

U.S. crude oil production has been on the rise since mid-2016, but it dropped to 9.41 barrels per day in the week to July 21, from 9.43 million bpd the week before. The decline was mainly due to a fall in Alaskan output.

Oil Thursday retreated from eight-week highs after gains on a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude stocks. U.S. crude was off 42 cents, or 0.86%, at $48.33 at 08:00 ET. Brent shed 41 cents, or 0.80%, to $50.56. The Energy Information Administration Wednesday reported a drop in crude inventories of about 7.2 million barrels. That easily beat a forecast fall of 2.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also fell more than expected. Oil has advanced this week after Saudi Arabia pledged to cut crude exports beginning next month. OPEC and non-OPEC producers may also extend an agreement to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day to beyond March. However, gains are expected to be capped on the view higher prices could encourage low-cost U.S. shale producers to increase output.

AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS. Tuesday, August 1 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, August 2 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, August 3 The U.S. government is set to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, August 4 Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : Trading Ideas: NICKEL -

 Nickel trading range for the day is 632.3-661.3.  Nickel gained as the dollar weakened and investors remained upbeat about the outlook for Chinese metal demand.  Global miner and trader Glencore said nickel production for the first half dropped 10 percent.  LME data showed on warrant or available nickel inventories at 247,428 - their lowest since January.

ZINC  Zinc trading range for the day is 177.1-182.9.  Zinc dropped tracking weakness in LME prices on profit booking after prices earlier gained amid upbeat views about China's economic growth and metals demand.  Earnings for China's industrial firms surged 19.1 percent in June from a year earlier, accelerating from May in a sign economic momentum remains solid.  Reflecting a sharp jump in orders for transportation equipment, data showed a substantial increase in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in June.

COPPER  Copper trading range for the day is 404.5-412.9.  Copper prices hit a two-year high on news of slowing global supply and rising Chinese demand for the metal.  Chile forecast 2017 copper production at 5.6 million tonnes, a 0.8 per cent rise from 2016.  China may ban imports of some scrap metal, from the end of 2018, according to an industry association notice, which may lead to higher refined copper imports.

BASE METAL ✍ NICKEL

( 30 - July - 2017 )

Nickel prices were trading lower by 0.57 per cent to Rs 645.80 per kg in futures trade today amid profitbooking by speculators and easing demand at the domestic spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in July fell by Rs 3.70, or 0.57 per cent, to Rs 645.80 per kg in a business turnover of 824 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by Rs 3.60, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 650.20 per kg in 272 lots. Marketmen said profit-booking by participants at prevailing levels amid fall in demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly influenced nickel prices at futures trade. ✍ ZINC

( 30 - July - 2017 )

Zinc prices declined by 0.53 per cent to 178.45 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July slipped by 95 paise, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 178.45

per kg in a business turnover of 2,164 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by a similar margin at Rs 178.65 per kg in 292 lots. Market analysts attributed the weakness in zinc futures to offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand from consuming industries in the physical market.

✍ COPPER ( 29 - July - 2017 ) Copper futures fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg today as speculators booked profits at prevailing high levels amid low demand at spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in farmonth November declined by Rs 2.65, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg in a business turnover of 44 lots.

The metal for delivery in August month shed Rs 2.30 or 0.56 per cent to Rs 405.70 per kg in a business volume of 832 lots. Analysts attributed the fall to offloading of positions by speculators at prevailing higher levels coupled with subdued spot demand.

✍ COPPER

( 29 - July - 2017 )

Copper futures traded 0.39 per cent higher at Rs 387.70 per kg today as speculators built more bets amid a firming trend at the domestic spot market even as metal weakened overseas. In futures trade, copper for delivery in far-month November was trading higher by Rs 1.55, or 0.39 per cent, at Rs 394.05 per kg in a business turnover of 84 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August edged up by Rs 1.45, or 0.38 per cent, at Rs 387.40 per kg in 1,000 lots. Market analysts said a better trend in base metals at the domestic spot markets on pick-up in demand from consuming industries influenced copper futures here. They said metal's weakness at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on strength in dollar eroded demand for commodities, which limited the gains. Meanwhile, copper for delivery in three months slipped 0.2 per cent to USD 5,956 per tonne at the LME yesterday.

✍ LEAD

( 28 - July - 2017 )

Lead prices edged higher by 0.85 per cent to Rs 142.25 per kg in futures trade today after traders widened their bets amid pick-up in demand at the domestic spot market. At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery for the current month rose by Rs 1.20, or 0.85 per cent, to Rs 142.25 per kg in a business turnover of 1,288 lots. The metal for delivery in August edged up by Rs 1.15, or 0.81 per cent, to Rs 143.30 per kg in 25 lots. Market analysts said uptick in demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot markets kept lead prices higher in futures trade, but weakness in select base metals overseas squeezed the gains. ✍ NICKEL

( 28 - July - 2017 )

Nickel prices were up by Rs 3.40 at Rs 626.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators raised their

bets, driven by rising demand at the domestic spot markets. Nickel to be delivered in August contracts rose by Rs 3.40, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 626.90 per kg at Multi Commodity Exchange in a business turnover of 174 lots. The metal for delivery in July was trading higher by Rs 2.90, or 0.47 per cent, at Rs 621.90 in 975 lots. Analysts said the rise in nickel prices in futures trade was mostly attributed to strong demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot market.

� COPPER -

( 27 - July - 2017 )

Buoyed by firm global cues, copper prices moved up by 1.46 per cent to Rs 389.25 per kg in futures trade today as traders widened their bets. Furthermore, pick-up in demand at the domestic spot markets, too supported the upside in metal prices. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August rose

by Rs 5.60 or 1.46 per cent to Rs 389.25 per kg in a business turnover of 35,559 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in November contracts traded higher by Rs 5.35 or 1.37 per cent to Rs 395.35 per kg in 612 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in copper futures to firm trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME) where it surged to over 4-month high. Besides, uptick in demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot markets supported the upside, they said. � ZINC

( 26- July - 2017 )

Zinc futures edged up 1.25 per cent to Rs 181.55 per kg today after speculators built up bets on the back of pick-up in demand at the domestic spot market. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in current month gained Rs 2.25, or 1.25 per cent, to Rs 181.55 per kg, in a business turnover of 30,412 lots. Metal for delivery in August also rose by Rs 2.05, or 1.14 per cent, to trade at Rs 181.80 per kg in 707 lots. According to marketmen, uptick in demand at domestic spot markets from consuming industries supported the upside in zinc futures here. � NICKEL

( 25 - July - 2017 )

Continuing its rising streak for yet another day, nickel prices were higher by 0.75 per cent to Rs 622 per kg in futures trading today as participants engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend in select base metals overseas. Besides, increased demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market fuelled the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in August went up by Rs 4.60, or 0.75 per cent to Rs 622 per kg in business turnover of 1,934 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in current month contracts edged higher by Rs 3.90, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 616.50 per kg in 31,047 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders on the back of firm trend overseas and pick-up in demand from alloy- makers in the domestic spot market mainly kept nickel prices higher at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET 21 -JULY - 2017 ✍ MENTHA OIL

( 30 - July - 2017 )

Futures contracts of mentha oil and cardamom saw an upswing on MCX this week in the agri-commodity basket. On NCDEX a number of commodities like guar gum complex, soybean and RM seed showed an upwards trend. The mentha futures for August delivery is heading for its highest weekly gain of 6.6% in last one year. It has hit nearly four months high to close above Rs 1050 per kg. The prices have jumped more than 16.7% during the current month, which is highest monthly increase since March 2012, when prices jumped 22%. ✍ CRUDE PALM OIL

( 30 - July - 2017 )

Crude palm oil prices went down by 0.77 per cent to Rs 487 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators cut down positions following easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August fell by Rs 3.80, or 0.77 per cent, to Rs 487 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 266 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in July was trading lower by Rs 1.90, or 0.39 per cent, to Rs 489 per 10 kg in 81 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders owing to subdued demand in the spot market against ample stocks position on increased supplies from producing regions mainly led to the decline in crude palm oil prices at futures trade. ✍ MENTHA OIL -

( 29 - July - 2017 )

Mentha oil prices were trading up by 0.22 per cent to Rs 1,070.50 per kg in futures market today as participants raised holdings amid surging domestic demand at spot market and restricted arrivals from producing regions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August rose by Rs 2.40, or 0.22 per cent, to Rs 1,070.50 per kg in a business turnover of 504 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in July edged up by Rs 1.20, or 0.11 per cent, to Rs 1,059.50 per kg in 22 lots. Analysts said raising of bets by traders, driven by rising demand from consuming industries in the spot market against restricted supplies from Chandausi, mainly attributed the rise in mentha oil prices at futures trade. ✍ REFINED SOYA OIL -

( 29 - July - 2017 )

Refined soya oil prices moved down by 0.53 per cent to Rs 643.20 per 10 kg in futures trading today as participants cut down positions, taking weak cues from spot market on sluggish demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August fell by Rs 3.40, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 643.20 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 29,410 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in September also enquired lower by Rs 2.85, or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 650 per 10 kg in 5,790 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of tepid demand in the physical market against ample

stocks position on increased supplies from producing belts mainly led to the decline in refined soya oil prices at futures trade. ✍ CHANA FUTURES

( 29 - July - 2017 )

Chana prices fell by Rs 32 to Rs 4,811 per quintal in futures trade today due to subdued demand at spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in September declined

by Rs 32, or 0.66 per cent to Rs 4,811 per quintal with an open interest of 17,220 lots. Market analysts attributed the slide in chana futures to offloading of positions by traders owing to muted demand in physical market against ample stocks position. ✍ SUGAR -

( 29 - July - 2017 )

Sugar prices are likely to remain firm over the next three months on increased festival demand and a supply crunch, traders said. Sugar prices have climbed 3 per cent since July 1despite a lower tax burden on the commodity under the goods and services tax (GST) regime as traders delayed purchases to take benefit of input credit, drying up supply lines. Tax on sugar has come down to 5 per cent from about 8 per cent since July 1 when the GST was rolled out. Although, the effective tax on sugar has come down after GST, this has not helped end consumers," said Ashok Jain, president at Bombay Sugar Merchants’ Association. "Sugar prices have increased rather than declining for the end consumer." In order to take input credit under GST, sugar traders had stopped buying sugar in June and were off loading the stocks with them. ✍ BLACK PEPPER -

( 28 - July - 2017 )

In a bid to expand its agri product suite and further contribute to the growth of agriculture market in India, Multi Commodity Exchange of India on Thursday launched trading in Malabar Garbled Black Pepper futures contract. Currently, September, October and November Black Pepper contracts will be available for trading on the Exchange, with 1 MT as the trading unit and Kochi (Kerala) as the basis centre. The transaction charges on Black Pepper futures contract is Rs.5/- per crore of turnover. MCX recorded volume of 313 MT, till the time of going to the press (at 3.20 pm). In addition to serving the most important role as a price risk management tool, black pepper futures contract will also help planters by empowering them to make better cropping, selling decisions, improving flow of information across the entire crop ecosystem, developing better storage and grading infrastructure and improving access to finance. ✍ MUSTARD

( 28 - July - 2017 )

In the current week, futures contracts of all benchmark edible oil and oilseed basket, excluding mustard (Rmseed), traded higher on domestic commodity exchanges. Among spices, turmeric, jeera and coriander traded on negative note while cardamom futures closed higher for the sixth time in last eight weeks.

✍ SOYBEAN -

( 28 - July - 2017 )

Soybean futures on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) were up by 0.63% this week to close above Rs 3,010 per quintal. The gain in prices is attributed to improved soybean demand and reports of lower soybean acreage during the current kharif season. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares. ✍ RM SEED

( 27 - July - 2017 )

Rmseed futures traded in a narrow range and are heading for weekly loss of about 0.5% on reports of sufficient stocks and steady demand in the country. Edible oil prices have moved little higher on hope of good increase in import duty coupled with firm international edible oil prices but higher stock positions in the country and steady domestic demand capped further gains," ✍ CARDAMOM -

( 27 - July - 2017 )

Cardamom futures on Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) jumped more than 6% this week due to lower than expected supplies from new season crop amid lower than normal monsoon rains in cardamom growing areas in Kerala. ✍ TURMERIC -

( 26 - July - 2017 )

Turmeric futures on NCDEX fell more than 4.5% this week due to higher acreage reported in Telangana coupled with good rains in turmeric growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 19-Jul-17, up 90% to 33,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 28,000 hectares.

The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. ✍ COTTON -

( 26 - July - 2017 )

MCX cotton recovers this week due to reports of crop damage in Gujarat and Punjab due to above normal rains. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 90.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 23% compared to last year acreage of 74 lakh ha for same period. ✍ SUGAR -

( 25 - July - 2017 )

Shares of sugar companies were on a high, rallying between 2 per cent and 10 per cent on Thursday after sugar prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) got locked in an upper circuit. Analysts said optimism over the government's decision to increase import duty on sugar to 50 per cent and a good monsoon have led to the rise in shares of sugar companies. However, many others said investors are better advised to be cautious on sugar stocks at current prices. ✍ CRUDE PALM OIL ( 25 - July - 2017 ) -

Crude palm oil prices declined further by 1.21 per cent to Rs 477.90 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in reducing positions, triggered by easing demand in the spot market. Besides, ample stocks on increased supplies from producing belts too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in current month fell by Rs 5.90, or 1.21 per cent, to Rs 477.90 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 549 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in August traded lower by Rs 5.50, or 1.15 per cent, to Rs 474.40 per 10 kg in 831 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders due to subdued demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks position mainly attributed the slide in crude palm oil prices at futures trade. � CARDAMOM

( 24 - July - 2017 ) -

Cardamom prices fell 1.87 per cent to Rs 1,022 per kg in futures trade today as speculators booked profits at prevailing levels amid easing demand in the spot market. Besides, sufficient stocks on higher arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too weighed on the prices.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in August contract fell by Rs 19.50, or 1.87 per cent, to Rs 1,022 per kg, in a business turnover of 45 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in September edged down by Rs 11, or 1.12 per cent, to Rs 966 per kg, with trading volume of 9 lots.

Marketmen said besides profit-taking by speculators at existing levels, increased arrivals from producing regions, mainly put pressure on cardamom prices in the futures market. � MENTHA OIL

( 24 - July - 2017 ) -

Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 1.03 per cent to Rs 946 per kg in futures trade today as speculators trimmed positions, driven by sluggish demand from industries at the spot market. Besides, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions too influenced mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month traded lower by Rs 9.90, or 1.03 per cent, to Rs 946 per kg, in a business turnover of 499 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 8.70, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 959.20 per kg in 80 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants due to subdued demand from consuming industries at the spot market against ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the decline in mentha oil prices in futures trade. � CRUDE PALM OIL -

( 24 - July - 2017 ) -

Crude palm oil prices declined by 0.43 per cent to Rs 485.20 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in reducing positions, triggered by easing demand at the spot market. Besides, ample stocks position on increased supplies from producing belts too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in current month fell by Rs 2.10, or 0.43 per cent, to Rs 485.20 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 68 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in August contract traded lower by Rs 1.40, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 481.50 per 10 kg in 130 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders amid subdued demand at the spot market against sufficient stocks position mainly

attributed the slide in crude palm oil prices in futures trade. ( 24 -JULY - 2017 ) � RMSEED In the current week, futures contracts of all benchmark edible oil and oilseed basket, excluding mustard (Rmseed), traded higher on domestic commodity exchanges. Among spices, turmeric, jeera and coriander traded on negative note while cardamom futures closed higher for the sixth time in last eight weeks.

Soybean Soybean futures on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange were up by 0.63% this week to close above Rs 3,010 per quintal. The gain in prices is attributed to improved soybean demand and reports of lower soybean acreage during the current kharif season. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares.

"Rmseed futures traded in a narrow range and are heading for weekly loss of about 0.5% on reports of sufficient stocks and steady demand in the country. Edible oil prices have moved little higher on hope of good increase in import duty coupled with firm international edible oil prices but higher stock positions in the country and steady domestic demand capped further gains,"

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