Ways2capital commodity report 15 june 2015

Page 1


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

622

612

602

598

592

588

582

572

562

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

3834

3781

3728

3699

3675

3646

3622

3569

3516

RMSEED

20 JUL 2015

4471

4385

4299

4264

4213

4178

4127

4041

3955

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2015

17781 17486

17191

17013

16896 16718 16601 16306

16011

CHANA

20 JUL 2015

4826

4758

4690

4661

4622

4593

4554

4486

4418

CASTORSEED

20 JUL 2015

4334

4275

4216

4178

4157

4119

4098

4039

3980

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

646

629

612

603

595

586

578

561

544

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

4341

4136

3931

3800

3763

3726

3595

3521

3316

RMSEED

20 JUL 2015

4680

4518

4356

4292

4194

4130

4032

3870

3708

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2015

19105 18340

17575

17205

16810 16440 16045 15280

14515

CHANA

20 JUL 2015

5126

4968

4810

4721

4652

4563

4494

4336

4178

CASTORSEED

20 JUL 2015

4712

4517

1313

4227

4109

4023

3905

3701

3497


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2015

115

113

111

110

109

108

107

106

105

COPPER

30 JUN 2015

388

385

382

381

379

378

376

373

370

CRUDE OIL

19 JUN 2015 3988 3944

3900

3878

3856

3834

3812

3768

3724

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 2727 27154 7

27031

26964

26908

26841

26785

26662

26539

LEAD

30 JUN 2015

124

122

120

119

118

117

116

114

112

NATURAL GAS

25 JUN 2015

191

187

182

179

178

175

174

169

165

NICKEL

30 JUN 2015

894

876

858

850

840

832

822

804

786

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 3749 37217 7

36937

36764

36657

36484

36377

36097

35817

ZINC

30 JUN 2015 141

137

136

135

134

133

131

129

139

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2015

119

116

113

111

110

108

107

104

101

COPPER

30 JUN 2015

427

412

397

388

382

373

367

352

337

19 JUN 2015 4554

4317

4080

3968

3843

3731

3606

3369

3132

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 27939 27592

27245

27071

26898

26724

26551

26204

25857

LEAD

30 JUN 2015

144

136

128

123

120

115

112

104

96

NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015

237

217

197

187

177

167

157

137

117

980

936

892

867

848

823

804

760

716

37533

37062

36756

36285

35979

3520

34425

CRUDE OIL

NICKEL

30 JUN 2015

SILVER

05 JUL 2015 39087 38310


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � China Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, data showed today, as the world's second biggest economy shows protracted weakness in the face of government easing measures. The disappointing figures also come as leaders try to transform the economy from one where growth is driven by consumer spending rather than government investment and exports. Imports slumped 17.6 percent year on year to USD 131.26 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement. The decline was much sharper than the median forecast of a 10 percent fall in a Bloomberg News poll of economists and followed April's 16.2 percent drop. � G7 Meetings US President Barack Obama urged fellow leaders of the G7 to stand up to "Russian aggression in Ukraine" as he enjoyed a traditional Bavarian welcome ahead of their summit in Germany. One of the many issues G7 leaders would be discussing during their two-day summit was "standing up to Russian aggression," Obama said in opening remarks as he was welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In a sign of togetherness designed to show absentee President Vladimir Putin the unity of the G7 over the Ukraine crisis, Obama said ties between the United States and Germany were "one of the strongest alliances the world has ever known." He also hailed the "enduring friendship" between the American and German people in a speech warmly applauded by Bavarians in traditional dress, quaffing beer and munching pretzels. For her part, Merkel praised the United States as an "essential partner" despite occasional "differences of opinion." Traditionally strong US-German ties have been tested by a spying scandal including the alleged tapping of Merkel's mobile phone, and more recently by reports of joint US-German surveillance of European political and economic targets, which has put Merkel under domestic pressure. The US and Germany shared "common values", Merkel stressed, in an apparent reference to Putin whose Russia was expelled from the G7 after Moscow's annexation of Crimea. EU President Donald Tusk, also attending the meeting, said he wanted to "reconfirm G7 unity on sanctions policy" against Russia. Obama and Merkel were speaking in the tiny village of Kruen ahead of the two-day summit at the nearby Elmau Castle. As well as Ukraine, the leaders are also expected to discuss the Greek


debt crisis and the threat posed worldwide by jihadist terrorism. � IMF Policymakers in Asia need to put greater emphasis on "growth-friendly" fiscal policy to sustain growth momentum in the face of demographic changes that could weigh on their economies, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund said. Aging populations and falling birth rates are shrinking labour forces in Asian countries, which will cause economic growth to slow, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, deputy managing director of the IMF, told a forum on fiscal policy on Wednesday. "Sound fiscal management becomes more challenging in the face of these demographic changes because increased spending for aging populations and shrinking tax bases will undermine fiscal soundness," he said. Furusawa said global growth is still modest after the global financial crisis and medium-term prospects are less optimistic for some advanced economies and especially for emerging markets. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Ichiro Miyashita, speaking at the forum, said the country is "surely going to raise" the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April 2017 as planned.

� BULLION � Gold The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.6% to hit 95.82, moving off Friday's highs of 96.95. The greenback weakened after rallying sharply on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this year. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in May, well ahead of economists forecast for 220,000. The upbeat data underlined the view that the economy is on track to rebound after a weak first quarter and bolstered expectations that the Fed could start raising rates at its September policy meeting. Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Meanwhile, developments surrounding talks between Greece and its international creditors remained in focus. Over the weekend European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to come up with alternative economic reforms "swiftly" so that negotiations could continue this week. Athens delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday after Tsipras


rejected the proposed reforms put forward by the EC as 'absurd'. Also on the Comex, silver futures for July delivery shed 2.7 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at $15.95 a troy ounce. Silver prices fell to $15.93 on Friday, the weakest level since May 1, before closing at $15.98, down 11.9 cents, or 0.74%. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery tacked on 0.7 cents, or 0.25%, to trade at $2.699 a pound. On Friday, futures slumped to $2.670, a level not seen since April 23, before inching up 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.692. Official trade data released Monday showed that China's copper arrivals in May fell 16.3% from a month earlier to 360,000 metric tons. The country's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion last month from $34.2 billion in April, compared to estimates for a surplus of $45.0 billion. Chinese exports fell 2.5% from a year earlier, while imports tumbled 17.6%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 10.7%. A slowdown in domestic demand indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures, including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand.

✍ Silver Silver futures were trading lower in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators exited positions in the precious metal as a pickup in US retail sales signaled a rebound in the world’s biggest economy, prompting the case for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, in the coming months, dimming the lure for the bullion as a store of value. US retail sales surged 1.2 per cent in May 2015 from the previous month, when they climbed a revised 0.2 per cent. At the MCX, Silver futures for July 2015 contract is trading at Rs 36,756 per 1 kg, down by 0.15 per cent after opening at Rs 36,732, against the previous closing price of Rs 36,812.

✍ ENERGY ✍ Natural gas Natural gas prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Monday, as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in July jumped 7.0 cents, or 2.68%, to trade at $2.660 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. On Friday, natural gas prices slumped


3.6 cents, or 1.37%, to end at $2.590. Prices hit a five-week low of $2.556 on June 4. Futures were likely to find support at $2.556 per million British thermal units, the low from June 4, and resistance at $2.724, the high from June 3. The July natural gas contract declined 2.5 cents, or 1.97%, last week, the third straight weekly loss, as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead and concerns over ample supplies weighed. Weather forecasting models called for mostly normal temperatures across the U.S. through mid-June, suggesting little demand for the fuel and paving the way for additional hefty inventory builds in the weeks ahead. Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 132 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 121 billion and following a build of 112 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Supplies rose by 118 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 92 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.233 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 50.7% higher than during the same week a year earlier and 1.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have made up for all of last winter's unusually strong demand. The EIA's next storage report slated for release on Thursday, June 4 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 5. Supplies rose by 109 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 89 billion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in July shed 48 cents, or 0.8%, to trade at $58.63 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery dipped 0.53% to trade at $1.859 per gallon.

� Crude Oil Crude futures fell sharply on Monday as energy traders continued to react to the long-term ramifications of OPEC's decision last Friday to keep its production ceiling above 30 million barrels per day. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 1.00 or 1.70% to 58.12, extending a recent skid over the last week. U.S. crude futures traded between 57.88 and 59.12 on a light day of trading. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.69 or 1.07% to


62.62, falling for the fourth time in five sessions. The spread between the international and U.S. benchmarks of crude rose to $4.50, above Friday's level of $4.23.At a semi-annual meeting of its members on Friday in Vienna, OPEC decided to maintain production at its current level – a move which caused crude to spike roughly 1.5% on the session. An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices, which has been weighed down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. Traders will also monitor a bid by Indonesia to return to OPEC. Indonesia, which suspended OPEC membership in 2008 when its import level exceeded its amount of crude exports, announced its intention to pursue full membership in the cartel at the meeting.The inclusion of the Southeast Asian emerging nation could help level the global supply-demand balance. Indonesia consumes around 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and is seeking supply agreements with OPEC members in order to import more oil, according to reports. Also on Monday, crude prices slid amid disappointing import and export data in China. In May, the Asian nation's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion, up from $34.2 billion a month earlier. Exports fell by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, while imports declined by more than 17%. In terms of crude, Chinese imports fell to 5.47 million bpd a decline of 26% on a year-over-year basis. In April, China became the world's largest importer of crude. Chinese imports fell sharply last month, as the nation's state-owned oil company drew from its enormous stockpiles while its tankers off the Strait of Malacca continued to horde cheaper crude. Energy traders await the release of weekly U.S. crude stockpiles at the middle of this week for further indications on current supply levels. Last Friday, oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by four on the week to 642, the lowest level since August, 2010. It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Though U.S. shale producers have been forced to slash drilling due to the lower price of crude, they have still maintained high production levels by keeping their more efficient rigs online. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, plummeted 1.09% to 95.34.

✍ BASE METAL ✍ Copper Copper prices moved further away from a six-week low on Tuesday, after disappointing Chinese inflation data added to speculation policymakers will have to introduce further stimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery tacked on 1.2 cents, or 0.43%, to trade at $2.708 a pound during European morning hours after hitting


an intraday peak of $2.715, the most since June 4. A day earlier, copper inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.15%, to close at $2.696. Futures were likely to find support at $2.670, the low from June 5, and resistance at $2.731, the high from June 4. Government data released earlier showed that Chinese inflation for May rose 1.2%, below expectations for 1.3% and down from 1.5% in April. The producer price index fell by a more-than-expected 4.6% last month, underling concerns over the health of the world's second largest economy. Disappointing trade data released on Monday indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures, including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand. Elsewhere, gold futures for August delivery tacked on $3.00, or 0.26%, to trade at $1,176.60 a troy ounce, while silver futures for July delivery rose 7.3 cents, or 0.46% to trade at $16.03 an ounce.

� Zinc Zinc futures fell by 0.66 per cent on Thursday at the domestic markets after US consumer confidence fell 1.7 percentage points in June, declining for the second consecutive month and to its lowest level this year which reduced the demand outlook for the metal. The Thomson Reuters/IPSOS Primary Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index fell to 55.0 in June from 56.7 in May. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 136.15 per kg, down by 0.66 per cent after opening at Rs. 137.15 against the previous closing price of Rs. 137.05. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 1335.90 till the trading. (At 3.50 PM today). Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany. � Lead Lead prices rose by 0.93 per cent on Wednesday at the domestic markets due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 1225 metric tonnes to 154975 metric tonnes as on June 10, 2015. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg, up by 0.93 per cent, after opening at Rs 123.60, against a previous close of Rs 123.45. It touched an intra-day high of Rs 124.90 till the trading. (At 3.15 PM today) Prices also rose as


participants enlarged positions taking positive cues from the global market and rising spot demand. ✍ Nickel Nickel futures surged in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel in the domestic spot market. Traders are eying the China industrial output data due for release on Thursday which may show that factory production grew by 6 per cent, year on year in May 2015, up from an annual 5.9 per cent rise in April 2015 and 5.6 per cent in March 2015, which was the weakest growth since 2008. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2015 contract is trading at Rs 864.50 per 1 kg, up by 0.78 per cent after opening at Rs 860.80, against the previous closing price of Rs 857.80.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Refined soya Falling for the third straight day, refined soya oil prices shed 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg in futures trade on friday owing to slackened demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August month fell by Rs 1.95, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg with an open interest of 2,27,290 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in June contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.04 per cent to Rs 604.80 per 10 kg in 14,865 lots.Offloading of positions by traders on the back of subdued demand in the spot market against adequate stocks kept pressure on the refined soya oil prices.

✍ Chana Amid profit-booking by speculators after recent gains and subdued spot demand, chana prices eased 0.17 per cent to Rs 4,705 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday.However, lower output estimates this marketing year capped the fall.At National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July declined Rs 8, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 4,705 per quintal with an open interest of 1,69,180 lots.Also, the commodity for delivery in June contracts shed Rs 4, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 4,645 per quintal in 19,160 lots.Demand in the spot market against adequate stock position mainly led to slide in chana prices.


� Mustardseed Taking positive cues from spot markets on rising demand,mustardseed prices were up by Rs 35 to Rs 4,110 per quintal in futures trading on Tuesday, as participants enlarged their exposures.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchangeplatform, mustardseed for delivery in current month, June contracts was trading higher by Rs 35, or 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,110 per quintal, in an open interest of 29,410 lots.In similar lines, most-active delivery in July contracts surged by Rs 30, or 0.73 per cent to Rs 4,150 per quintal, with an open interest of 76,800 lots.Iincreased positions built up by participants, tracking a firm trend at physical marketes, mainly lifted mustardseed prices at futures trade.

� Castorseed Castorseed prices rebounded in futures trading today as a result of the rise in demand from consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015 contract was trading at Rs. 4,020 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.5 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,992 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,000. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,990 till the trading. (At 12.25 PM today). Traders attributed recovery in castroseed prices to emergence of buying at lower levels in spot markets. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.

� Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 1.34 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for June 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,590 per quintal, up by 1.34 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,470 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,370. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 16,470. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries.


LEGAL DISCLAIMER This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.


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