Ways2capital commodity report 20 july 2015

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

111

109

107

106

105

104

103

101

99

31 AUG 2015 377

369

361

356

353

348

345

337

329

CRUDE OIL

20 JUL 2015 3403 3340

3277

3241

3214

3178

3151

3088

3026

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 2645 26157 2

25862

25673

25567

25378

25272

24977

24682

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

118

117

116

115

115

114

113

112

111

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

193

189

185

183

181

179

177

173

169

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

762

751

740

733

729

722

718

707

696

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3553 35117 6

34698

34437

34279

34018

33860

33441

33022

132

131

130

129

128

126

124

ALUMINIUM COPPER

ZINC

31 JUL 2015

31 JUL 2015

134 136

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 JUL 2015

112

110

108

106

105

104

103

102

98

COPPER

31 AUG 2015

393

380

367

359

354

346

341

328

315

CRUDE OIL

20 JUL 2015

3866

3664

3462

3334

3260

3132

3058

2856

2654

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 27649 26995

26341

25913

25687

25259

25033

24379

23725

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

136

129

122

118

115

111

108

101

94

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

208

199

190

185

181

176

172

163

154

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

901

842

783

755

724

696

665

606

547

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 39553 37929

36305

35241

34681

33617

33057

31433

29809

138

134

130

126

122

114

106

ZINC

31 JUL 2015

154

146


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

584

577

570

566

563

559

556

549

542

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

3676

3615

3554

3518

3493

3457

3432

3371

3310

RMSEED

20 AUG 2015

4402

4347

4292

4264

4237

4209

4182

4127

4072

20 AUG 2015 16973 16643

16313

16106

15983 15776 15653 15323

14993

CHANA

20 AUG 2015

4830

4755

4680

4637

4605

4562

4530

4455

4380

CASTORSEED

20 AUG 2015

4156

4111

4066

4040

4021

3995

3976

3931

3886

JEERAUNJHA

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

601

589

577

570

565

558

553

541

529

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

4087

3901

3715

3598

3529

3412

3343

3157

2971

RMSEED

20 AUG 2015

4638

4509

4380

4308

4251

4179

4122

3993

3864

20 AUG 2015 18273 17553

16833

16366

16113 15646 15393 14673

13953

CHANA

20 AUG 2015

5171

4368

4765

4679

4562

4476

4359

4156

3953

CASTORSEED

20 AUG 2015

4227

4160

4093

4053

4026

3986

3959

3892

3825

JEERAUNJHA


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � BULLION Gold scaled higher on Friday, further off a four-month low, as the dollar tumbled against the euro on signs of progress in Greece's efforts to secure fresh funding. Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $1,161.88 an ounce by 1029 GMT. Prices touched $1,146.75 on Wednesday, their lowest since March 18, when the dollar was boosted by weakness in the euro on Greece and the tumble in Chinese stock markets. US gold for August delivery gained 0.2 per cent at $1,161.70 an ounce. The euro climbed 1.2 per cent against the dollar, making dollar-denominated assets such as gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. "Gold is getting some support from the stronger euro but if we get a deal with Greece on Sunday, it should be bearish for gold because it removes any risk," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. "The major driver is the U.S. because we have Yellen speaking today and markets will be watching that for any clues about the rate hike." Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak on Friday on the U.S. economic outlook at 1630 GMT. "No doubt, gold has been a profound disappointment for the bulls over the past few months ...to see repeated rallies fizzle," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir wrote. Physical demand remained tepid this week as prospective investors in China chased bargains in equities after a market rout, while those in India delayed purchases. The metal in India was still sold at a discount to the global benchmark. Chinese stocks rose sharply for a second day on Friday after Beijing moved to arrest a rout that pulled down key indexes by around 30 per cent from mid-June, banning shareholders with large stakes in listed firms from selling. Also aiding gold, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3 per cent from a previous estimate of 3.5 per cent, citing recent weakness in the United States. Silver was up 0.5 per cent at $15.44 an ounce, palladium rose 1.7 per cent to $648.50 an ounce and platinum gained 1.4 per cent to $1,032.50 an ounce

� Gold Gold slipped towards the four-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve's reiteration that US interest rateswere likely to rise this year pushed the dollar index to a six-week high.A rally in European shares after the Greek parliament passed the austerity measures demanded by its lenders to open talks on a multi-billion euro bailout also diverted some attention from gold.Spot goldwas down 0.3 per cent at $1,146.00 an ounce at 0930 GMT, while US gold futures for August delivery were down $2.70 an ounce at $1,144.70. Spot prices fell to their lowest since mid-March on Tuesday at $1,143.43 after Federal Reservechair Janet Yellen confirmed in a statement that the Fed will likely hike interest rates


later this year if the US economy expands as expected.Gold is sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while benefiting the dollar. "Wednesday's comments from Fed Chair Yellen, citing the likelihood of a 2015 rate rise, helped prop up the dollar and led to a slide in gold which retraced to its year-to-date lows," Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. "Gold is now trading below the long-term basing uptrend made up of the November and March lows, with further downside in prospect if the dollar gains further, or Treasury yields rise." The Fed has indicated that the timing of a rate rise will depend on economic data. There was more evidence on Wednesday of growth improving, with industrial production rebounding last month and factory activity in New York state picking up in July. The dollar hit a six-week high versus a basket of currencies as fading concerns over Greece shifted the focus back to the outlook for yield differentials in different economies.Premiums for physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange picked up slightly to $2-$4 an ounce over spot, although analysts say a slowing economy could cap demand from China, the world's top gold consumer. � Silver Tracking a weak global trend, silverfutures on Thursday dropped 0.28 per cent to Rs 35,384 per kg.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in December drifted by Rs 100, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 35,384 per kg in a business turnover of 14 lots.A weak global trend overseas following US Fed's indication of a hike in interest rate this year, pulled down silver prices at futures trade here.Meanwhile, silver was little changed at USD 15.10 an ounce in Singapore today after slumping 1.8 per cent yesterday.

� Nickel Taking weak cues from global market and muted demand at the domestic spot market, nickelpricesdropped 0.58% to Rs 739.30 per kg in futures trade on friday as traders trimmed their bets.At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in August was trading Rs 4.30, or 0.58%, down at Rs 739.30 per kg in a business turnover of 139 lots.The metal for delivery this month also shed Rs 3.90, or 0.53%, to Rs 732.20 per kg in a turnover of 1,317 lots.Analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade is mostly attributed to a weakening trend in base metal at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and easing demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot market.Globally, the metal used in stainless steel retreated 0.9% to $11,525 per tonne at LME.

� Zinc Zincfutures edged up 0.15% to Rs 133.05 per kg on Thursday as speculators created positions amid a rising trend in base metals overseas and better domestic demand.At the Multi


Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July was up 20 paise, or 0.15%, to Rs 132.35 per kg, with a business turnover of 679 lots.The metal for delivery in August also rose a similar margin to trade at Rs 133.05 per kg, with a business turnover of 19 lots.Strength in metal at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after data showing global usage exceeded production in May drove the upside in zinc prices.Globally, zinc for delivery in three months increased as much as 0.8% to trade at nearly 1-month high of $2,093 per tonne at LME.

✍ Aluminium Taking positive cues from global market and strong demand at domestic spot markets, aluminiumpricesedged up 0.38% to Rs 106.65 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday as participants enlarged positions.Apart from increased domestic demand, a firming global trend as Chinese economic data came in ahead of estimates, boosting demand prospects in the world's biggest consumer of base metals, helped aluminium futures to trade higher.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery this month inched up by 40 paise, or 0.38%, to Rs 106.65 per kg in a business turnover of 112 lots.Likewise, the metal for delivery in August traded higher by 30 paise, or 0.28%, to Rs 108.35 per kg in five lots.

✍ Crude Oil Oil prices edged up on Friday but further gains are unlikely, owing to ongoing concerns about a global supply glut, while increasing dollar strength will also likely weigh on the downside.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for August delivery rose 19 cents to $51.10 a barrel and Brent crude for September, a new contract, advanced 20 cents to $57.12. Crude investors continue to fret as the global economy struggles to get back up to speed, despite a strong pick-up in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer.While fears over the Greek debt crisis abate, prices took a hit this week after crude-rich Iran and world powers agreed a historic deal to check the country's nuclear ambitions, which in turn eases crippling sanctions on its crucial oil exports.Expectations that Iranian crude would hit an already saturated market spooked dealers, although those worries subsided slightly on the realization it would not arrive until next year.A strong greenback, at highs not seen since early June, makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for traders using other, weaker currencies.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Soyameal exports Farmers engaged in soy cultivation are highly distressed as India’s soyabean meal exports have dropped drastically by about 85% from record level of 4.24 million tonnes (MT) during fiscal year (FY) 2008-09 to a meagre 0.64 million ton in 2014-15, noted a just-concluded study by apex industry body ASSOCHAM.


Looking at near normal monsoon, the country is expected to reap rich harvest of over 12 million ton soybean meal putting further pressure on the domestic prices as India has become globally in competitive and import of soy oil continues to increase. This significant slump in soybean meal exports from India is largely on account of speculation and an unrealistic approach in handling established export markets. Madhya Pradesh is known as ‘Soybean bowl of India,’ accounting for lion’s share of 60% of total production followed by Maharashtra (30%), while Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat together account for remaining share of 10%.Soybean scenario in India is currently at crossroads due to erratic production, declining soybean meal exports and consequent idling of plants, poor soybean oil output while edible oil imports are growing and currently account for almost 60% of country’s total requirement. Unless a targeted approach is initiated, India might permanently loose export market for soybean meal that has been so assiduously build over decades.Edible oil consumption in India is currently growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of three% thereby placing enormous burden and dependence on imports to meet current deficit of 10 million ton due to near stagnant domestic production at about 8 million against a requirement of 18 million.”

✍ Soyabean The area under soybean cultivation has crossed 100 lakh hectares as on date as compared to 110 lakh hectares last year - a drop of 9 per cent. if rain occurs latest by July 20, then the crop development will be normal and satisfactory. There is a possibility that area under soybean this year will remain between 100 to 110 lakh hectares, In Madhya Pradesh sowing of soybean started earlier as compared to last year. In Malwa region, it has been found that approximately 2 lakh hectare area is under severe moisture stress and the crop in this area is virtually lost. Almost 80 per cent sowing of Soybean was completed during the first spell of rains in mid June. The crop sown in this spell is currently under moisture stress, but will still revive, in case the rain occurs within next 3-4 days. Otherwise, the yield in this area will be adversely affected.There has been no attack of pest and disease as of now. Subsoil moisture is still present at a depth of 2.5 to 3 inches and it can sustain the standing crop for another one week. Over all vegetative growth is average and the crop condition is also average in Madhya Pradesh.. The area under soybean cultivation in Maharashtra is satisfactory and higher than the government's normal area of 28 lakh hectares. The crop in Latur division and Marathwada is under severe moisture stress and the productivity is likely to be adversely affected. Major area in Amravati and Nagpur Division in Vidarbha region is seen to be average to fair. If the monsoon revives by early next week, it will improve the crop condition considerably, Jain said. In Rajasthan, the area under soybean is likely to touch 10 lakh hectares, helped by late rains including recent rains and available irrigation facility. The crop is reported to be quite satisfactory, SOPA chairman said.


✍ Chana Chana rose 0.56 per cent to Rs 4,432 per quintal in futures trade on Thursday as traders enlarged their holdings, driven by strong demand at the spot market.Besides, restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market influenced the chana prices.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for July delivery rose by Rs 25, or 0.56 per cent, to Rs 4,432 per quintal, with an open interest of 3,120 lots.Similarly, chana for delivery in August increased by Rs 23, or 0.51 per cent, to Rs 4,482 per quintal, with an open interest of 1,54,500 lots.Widening of positions by speculators triggered by strong demand at the spot market, mainly pushed up chana prices. Further, fall in supplies from the producing regions of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh supported the uptrend.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed lower by 0.62 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for July 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,080 per quintal, down by 0.62 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,025 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,180., similarly in august contract jeera closed at 16150 after opening at 16200 and made a high of 16255. Global output of Jeera is around 2.2 lakh MT per year, of which India produces about 1.5 lakh MT per year. India exports Jeera mainly to the US, UK, UAE, Japan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Singapore and many other countries.

✍ Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.59 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for July 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,239 per quintal, up by 0.59 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,215 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,214 similarly in august contract mustrd seed made a high of 4275 after opening at 4220 and intra day low was 4195. India produces 5.5 million MT to7 million MT annually and about 0.15 million MT is retained for sowing and direct consumption as seed which leaves about 4.8-5.1 million MT for crushing and extracting oil.


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