Climate Change and Migration: Policy Recommendations

Climate Change and Migration: Policy Recommendations

Adenikè Adegbidi, Sylvia Lynch, Meenu Bhooshanan

The accelerating pace of climate change has been a major concern since the end of the 19th century. Therefore, in 1992, the Rio Summit endorsed the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). All countries in the world are affected by climate change but not all equally. Many developing countries are among the most impacted by climate change. The people living in these countries are often highly dependent on their natural environment and have minimal resources to cope with climate change.

To illustrate the impacts of climate change on women, peace, and security, this paper will focus on the case of South Sudan. As one of the ten African countries most vulnerable to climate change and amongst the five worst-performing and prepared countries in the world according to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2017, 1 South Sudan exemplifies how the changing climate is already influencing conflict and migration.

UN Mission in South Sudan

In December 2021, Nicholas Haysom, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), presented his latest situation report. 2 The report highlights the UN Mission's efforts to address climate-related security risks given the increasing frequency of droughts and severe flooding in South Sudan. It also recognized that the security challenges cannot be separated from the prevailing socio-economic and humanitarian difficulties in the country, which have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the negative effects of climate change. To address these growing climate-related security risks, the UNMISS established a working group to develop integrated strategies in South Sudan.

Gender disparities

The gendered dimension of climate change in South Sudan is critical to consider, especially as female-led households are particularly vulnerable. A 2018 report from the Sudd Institute evaluated the gendered impacts of climate change in South Sudan. 3 According to the report, the Sudd Institute found that women are more vulnerable to climate change due to their position at the bottom of the patriarchal social hierarchy, which subsequently produces imbalances that put women at high risk from climate change-related disasters. Women tend to be more dependent on natural resources, have a high rate of illiteracy, and have very limited

1“Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2017”, Relief web, November 14, 2016, https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-change-vulnerability-index-2017 2 United Nations, Security Council, Situation in South Sudan: report of the Secretary-General, S/2021/1015 (7 December 2021), available from undocs.org/en/S/2021/1015 3Nyathon Hoth Mai, Jok Madut Jok and Nhial Tiitmamer, “Climate Change and Gender in South Sudan” Sudd Institute, August 2018, 1-18 https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep20115.pdf

access to professional employment opportunities. Given that context, women economically rely on agricultural activities, which in turn leaves women at greater risk of unpredictable temperatures, flooding, and drought. Ultimately, this results in female-led households’ greater vulnerability to disasters and climate change.

Migration

Climate change affects migration and mobility in a variety of ways, including displacement caused by extreme weather conditions and long-term environmental change. In 2018, the World Bank projected that three regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, will generate an additional 143 million climate migrants by 2050. 4 Although difficult to estimate, about one-third of migrants have been forced to move due to "sudden onset" climate related events. South Sudan is the main country of origin of refugees in Africa, with over 2.3 million departees. 5 Floods affect between 750,000 and more than one million people every year in South Sudan, forcing half of them to leave their homeland to higher grounds. 6 As of March 2021, according to the Norwegian Institute of International affairs, more than 1.6 million South Sudanese were internally displaced due to factors such as conflict and weather.

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Peace and security

Long-term effects and short-term impacts of climate change such as floods and droughts disrupt food security and increase the risk of violence. Climate change can therefore trigger or exacerbate conflict. According to Nhial Tiitmamer of the Sudd Institute, this phenomenon is exacerbated in societies with weak institutions and conflict resolution mechanisms that are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This is the case in South Sudan where 95 percent of livelihoods depend on traditional rain-fed agriculture, crops, pastoralism and livestock. 8 Climate change consequently has direct and interrelated implications for peace and security in South Sudan. In the country, a single flood can be associated with approximately nine incidents of conflict. The effects of climate change affect communities dependent on agriculture and can intensify the risk of tensions between pastoralists and farmers, often over land, pasture, and water. UNMISS has reported 415 violent incidents between communities between January and May 2020. 9 As armed conflict reduces the resilience of populations to

4Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Bergmann, Jonas; Clement, Viviane; Ober, Kayly; Schewe, Jacob; Adamo, Susana; McCusker, Brent; Heuser, Silke; Midgley, Amelia. Groundswell : Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC :World Bank, 2018. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461 5“UNHCR concerned at climate change impacts in South Sudan” UNHCR, March 11, 2022 https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/unhcr-concerned-climate-change-impacts-south-sudan 6“Climate change and flooding” UNICEF, https://www.unicef.org/southsudan/what-we-do/climate-change-and-flooding 7 “Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan” Norwegian Institute of International affairs, March 11, 2021 https://www.nupi.no/nupi_eng/News/Climate-Peace-and-Security-Fact-Sheet-South-Sudan 8 Ibid. 9“Escalating intercommunal conflict could unravel the peace agreement” United Nations Mission In South Sudan, June 09, 2020, https://unmiss.unmissions.org/escalating-intercommunal-conflict-could-unravel-peace-agreement

climate shocks, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned that South Sudan lacks functioning state institutions and local mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of resource-related conflicts which undermine the resilience and adaptation potential of communities when confronted with the impacts of climate change.

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Current Challenges

As described above, over the next several decades, climate change will increasingly wreak havoc on communities across the world, particularly those in lower- and lower-middle income countries. Extreme temperatures and irregular rainfall augmenting food and water insecurity and resource deterioration and depletion, rising sea levels threatening low-lying and island populations, and surging extreme weather events will all contribute to humanitarian crises and global mass migration, displacement, and ultimately, refugees. Notably, the international community has not yet agreed to formally recognize and protect climate refugees. Without formal international recognition of climate as a legitimate driver of migration and category for refugee status, climate migrants and refugees will not be afforded the protections11 afforded to other refugees. However, the World Bank models predict over 86 million climate migrants in sub-Saharan Africa, 89 million across Asia and the Pacific, and 41 million across other regions by 2050, 12 demonstrating the need for consensus on international and state responsibilities regarding climate refugees and migrants.

Beyond the financial cost of these crises, humanitarian emergencies and displacement incur significant human costs that disproportionately impact women, youth, and marginalized populations. As highlighted in the South Sudan case study above, women – traditionally family caretakers – are the first to suffer from food and water insecurity and scarcity. Reduced access to healthy, nutritious food and clean water will additionally threaten women’s and children’s health and nutrition. Furthermore, gender-based violence often intensifies during crisis situations due to gender and abusive power dynamics and the lapse in societal structures.

13 As the international community responds to climate migration and displacement, prioritizing gender equality and accessibility will be critical to ensure the most vulnerable populations are safe and able to access food, water, and services. Of note, the UN’s existing charter protecting women, the 1979 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against women, does not explicitly consider violence against women or specific considerations for vulnerable populations (e.g., refugees, displaced persons, and indigenous peoples). To rectify this, international women’s rights activists have introduced for deliberation a global treaty condemning violence against women and girls. 14

10 https://www.fao.org/3/i5760e/i5760e.pdf 11 See the 1951 UN Refugee Convention for refugee categories. 12 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36248 13 https://www.unicef.org/protection/gender-based-violence-in-emergencies 14 https://everywoman.org/drafttreaty/

Moreover, increasing incidence of internal and cross-border displacement and refugee flows will place enormous strain on countries and host communities. Such mass movements leave significant population gaps in the countries of origin, which can devastate local economies and communities. Second, the host countries, under international law and with limited support from the UNHCR15 and other international actors, are required to shelter refugees. Providing shelter, food, water, and basic services for thousands of refugees presents an imposing burden few countries willingly accept. Responding to future humanitarian crises will require mobilizing increased international and private sector funding.

a. Western Responsibility to Act As noted above, North American and Western European industrialized countries have been the largest historic emitters of greenhouse gasses and contributors to climate change.

Recommendations

Multilateral bodies like the UN do not supersede individual nations’ sovereignty. However, climate change is already affecting the world’s most marginalized populations and is projected to have more direct effects in the US and other nations in the upper Northern hemisphere starting in 2035. 16 Thus, it is imperative that multilateral bodies help redefine traditional issues like migration and war to include climate change and how it acts as a threat multiplier.

a. Empower Women of Color Voices Women of color globally stand to be the most affected by the first waves of climate change as demonstrated by the South Sudan case study. As such, they should be empowered to design and lead implementation for mitigation programs countering the effects of climate change. Activists fighting climate change who have lived experience and domain knowledge - including indigenous climate activists - are best suited to craft recommendations that support their communities. Furthermore, the more people from different backgrounds there are when problem-solving, the higher likelihood of coming up with people-centered and innovative solutions since everyone brings different perspectives to the table.

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b. Expand the Definitions and Categories of Refugees As currently defined, international refugee law ratified by the 1951 Refugee Convention does not include fleeing one’s country on the basis of climate-induced change, conflict, or lack of resources. By expanding this to include the recognition of climate refugees, it helps start a global conversation and enables more resources to strategize for urgent solutions.

c. Tackle the Root Issue: Climate Change

15 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 16 https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change#:~:text=Climate%20models%20 project%20that%20 if,the%20time%20by%202035%2D2064. 17 https://hbr.org/2017/03/teams-solve-problems-faster-when-theyre-more-cognitively-diverse

Bodies like the UN have prioritized forming strategies that counties can adopt in order to mitigate the impacts of climate change. One such suggestion is to encourage nations to invest in reducing carbon emissions and geoengineering technology. By tackling the root issue of climate change, nations can reduce the effects of the climate refugee crisis and the resource constraints countries like South Sudan are facing and others will face within this century.