Newsletter UNESCO-UDLAP Chair 14

Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

NEWSLETTER

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNESCO Chair on Hydrometeorological Risks, Universidad de las Américas Puebla

Number 14 · January-March 2020

CHAIR MEMBERS Director Polioptro F. Martínez Austria

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

CONTENTS

udlap

MEMBERS Víctor Hugo Alcocer Yamanaka Comisión Nacional del Agua

Erick R. Bandala González

Desert Research Institute, EE. UU.

Benito Corona Vázquez udlap

Johanness Cullmann

World Meteorological Organization Geneva

Carlos Díaz Delgado

Instituto Interamericano de Ciencias del Agua, México.

Carlos Escalante

Facultad de Ingeniería, unam

Matthew Larsen

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Climate change and hydrometeorological hazards 2019- Chair Seminar

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Water and hydrometeorological hazards New blog of the Chair

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The drought in México during 2019 Regina Mijares Fajardo

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Climate change and hydrometerological hazards.

Review of Dr. Cecilia Conde’s lecture at the seminar of the Chair María Elena Cerecedo Arroyo

CLIMATE CHANGE AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS 2019- CHAIR SEMINAR

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, EE. UU.

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Humberto Marengo Mogollón Instituto de Ingeniería, unam

Einar Moreno Quezada udlap

Carlos Patiño Gómez udlap Consultant

Sofía Ramos

President Luminario Education Strategies, USA.

José Ángel Raynal Villaseñor Consultant

José D. Salas

Colorado State University, EE. UU.

Jim Thomas

Desert Research Institute, EE. UU.

Juan Valdes

University of Arizona, EE. UU.

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http://www.udlap.mx/catedraunesco/

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Participation of the Chair in the discussion of the General Law on Water

Scarcity index: an indicator of availability or a tool for water management?

Summary of recent publications by members of the Chair

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The seminar, which was held as an expert meeting, brought together specialists from the Desert Research Institute, University of California in Davis and Luminaria Education Strategies, from the United States; the University of Costa Rica; the UNESCO Chair in Water and Education for Sustainable Development, based in Argentina; and several institutions in México,

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s an important part of its annual activities, the unesco Chair in Hydrometeorological hazards held the international seminar on Climate Change and Hydrometeorological hazards on November 2019.

The seminar, which was held as an expert meeting, brought together specialists from the Desert Research Institute, University of California in Davis and Luminaria Education Strategies, from the United States; the University of Costa Rica; the unesco Chair in Water and Education for Sustainable Development, based in Argentina; and several institutions in México, such as the Inter-American Institute of Water Science and Technology, the National Meteorological Service, unam, the Federal Electricity Commission, and the University of the Américas Puebla.

Call for the Doctorate in Water Sciences International call

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Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

16:45 - 17:30 h

Alyssa DeVincentis University of California, Davis

Status of research on climate change and water in Latin America and the Caribbean

17:30 - 18:15 h

Jorge Aquiles Alcalá Hernández Federal Electricity Commission

Seismic risk in dams. Faults and consequences

TIME

LECTURER

TOPIC

9:00 - 9:45 h

Samuel Sandoval Solís University of California, Davis

Climate change and transboundary basins

9:45 - 10:30 h

Erick Banadala Desert Research Institute, EE. UU.

Water and inflation in México

10:30 - 11:15 h

Einar Moreno UNESCO Chair in Hydrometeorological hazards

Water and inflation in México

11:15 - 11:30 h

Break

11:30 - 12:15 h

Ismael Aguilar Barajas Tecnológico de Monterrey

Economic importance of the Rio Bravo basin

12:15 - 13:00 h

Sofía Ramos Luminario Education Strategies, EE. UU.

Gender and water management

13:00 - 14:00 h

Summary and closure

NOVEMBER 8th, 2019 The schedule of lectures was as follows: NOVEMBER 7th, 2019

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TIME

LECTURER

TOPIC

8:30 - 9:00 h

Accreditation

9:00 - 9:30 h

Accreditation

9:30 - 10:15 h

Ricardo Prieto González National Weather Service, México

Hydrometeorological hazards in México

10:15 - 11:00 h

Eric Alfaro Costa Rica University

Hydrometeorological hazards in the Central American Dry Corridor

11:00 - 11:15 h

Break

11:15 - 12:00 h

Cecilia Conde National Autonomous University of México

Climate change and hydrometeorological extremes

12:00 - 12:45 h

Polioptro F. Martínez Austria UNESCO Chair in Hydrometeorological hazards

Climate trends identified in Northwest México

12:45 - 13:00 h

Break

13:00 - 13:45 h

Carlos Patiño Gómez UNESCO Chair in Hydrometeorological hazards

Hydrological modeling and climate change

13:45 - 14:30 h

Carlos Díaz Delgado Inter-American Institute of Water Science and Technology

Seasonal changes in climate variables (1960–2010) and their implications for food security in the Lerma–Chapala–Santiago basin

14:30 - 16:00 h

Lunch

16:00 - 16:45 h

Miguel Lovino Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Argentina (National University of the Litoral, Argentina)

The seminar was distinguished by the multidisciplinary approach to climate change from different points of view, such as environmental, meteorological, financial, and gender aspects. Furthermore, it will allow the working group of the Chair to be expanded, as it is part of the unesco mission to create research and knowledge networks.

In this newsletter, and in successive issues, reviews of some of the lectures given at the seminar will be presented.

Vulnerability of Latin America to climate change and variability

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Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

WATER AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

NEW BLOG OF THE CHAIR

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he young researchers’ chapter of the unesco Chair has launched a blog entitled Water and hydrometeorological hazards, which publishes articles related to the topics of the Chair prepared by its members, at least once a week.

The blog was launched in November 2019, and among its most popular entries are the articles: Top 11 Most Dangerous Hurricanes in the history of Mexico, What You Need to Know about Forest Fires, and Drought in Mexico during 2019.

WE INVITE YOU TO VISIT THE BLOG AT:

https://blogcatedraunesco.udlap.mx/

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Participation of the Chair in the

DISCUSSION OF THE GENERAL LAW ON WATER

MÉXICO IS FACING SEVERAL CHALLENGES THAT THREATEN ITS WATER SECURITY, CLOSELY RELATED TO THE GOVERNMENT, ITS INSTITUTIONS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT PRIMARILY TO THE CITIZENSHIP, WHICH MUST UNDERSTAND THAT THE USE OF WATER IS NOT CHEAP; IT COSTS A LOT TO TAKE IT OUT FROM THE AQUIFERS AND MAINTAIN THE ENTIRE INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPLY WATER TO THE HOMES.

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éxico is facing several challenges that threaten its water security, closely related to the government, its institutions, and climate change, but primarily to the citizenship, which must understand that the use of water is not cheap; it costs a lot to take it out from the aquifers and maintain the entire infrastructure to supply water to the homes. This was stated by Dr. Polioptro Martínez Austria, professor of UDLAP, during his participation in the Puebla Forum: “Towards the construction of a new General Law on water.”

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Number 14 · January-March 2020

“If we are going to demand the service to be good, we have to pay for the services we receive,” were the words of Dr. Martínez Austria in his conference speech on “Water Security,” given at the event organized by the Commission of Hydraulic Resources, Drinking Water and Sanitation, from the Chamber of Representatives of the Honorable Congress of the Union, who called on diverse voices from all orders of government, basin organizations, academic institutions, experts, organizations of the civil society, and water operators to make presentations around the central topic: the human right to water and its implications in the context of national and local interests.

First, the professor defined water security as ensuring the availability of quality water for human, economic, and environmental uses. Because all goods and services require the vital liquid, it is a matter of priority and national security. “We have to ensure it for domestic use, services, food production, industry, and also for the environment,” he said.

He also added that such security today faces latent hazards such as shortages, pollution, extreme climate change, conflicts, and the environmental deterioration of watersheds and aquifers. The main force behind this is urbanization,

because more water is needed to be brought to large cities rather than to rural areas. For example, the México City aquifer that feeds a generous urban concentration is being overexploited and has put pressure on both the populations and the government itself.

THE DROUGHT IN MEXICO

In view of the above considerations, Dr. Polioptro Martínez gave three recommendations to deal with these hazards that involve the government, NGOs, companies, and the population: first, manage the deficient governance of water caused by the mismatch between administrative and functional units that work on their own with different attributions; second, maintain a balance in water consumption and not spend more than they have; third, recognize that the use of the liquid is not a cheap or free process.

DURING 2019 Regina Mijares Fajardo

“We as users have to learn that there is no more cheap water, it is very difficult for us to take it out of the aquifers, to maintain the infrastructure and dams, and after using it, it is very difficult for us to clean it. We have to get used to the fact that, and if we are going to demand good service, we have to pay,” concluded the director of the unesco-udlap Chair in Hydrometeorological Hazards.

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his article provides an overview of the progress of the drought in the country during the months of 2019. This monitoring is possible owing to the tool “Drought Monitor in Mexico” published by the National Meteorological Service.

To estimate whether a territory suffers from drought conditions and to be able to categorize the intensity of the phenomenon (abnormally dry, moderate drought, severe drought, extreme drought, and exceptional drought), the NMS uses the following indexes and indicators: • Standardized precipitation index (SPI) • Rainfall anomaly in percent of normal • Satellite Vegetation Health Index (VHI) • Soil Moisture Model Leaky Bucket CPC-NOAA • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) • Average temperature anomaly • Percentage of water availability in the country’s dams • Local experts’ opinion

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Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

The following images show the state of drought in the country, reported up to the last day of each month in 2019, up to November.

SOURCE: National Water Commission - National Meteorological Service

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4

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In the diagrams, it can be seen that August and September were the months with the most critical situations. In August, the country had the highest percentage of drought in the year, 47.2%, (NMS, 2019). Likewise, “August 2019 was the fifteenth driest August in history; it accumulated 110.8 mm of rain at a national level, which represent a deficit of 17.8% with respect to the average value (1981–2010) for an August: 134.7 mm” (NMS, 2019). The most affected regions, as shown in the maps, were the northern and central gulfs.

On the other hand, September was the month with the highest percentage of territory covered by an exceptional drought, 0.42% (NMS, 2019). However, the drought conditions decreased from this month onwards; events that were related to this change were the tropical rainstorms Fernand and Narda, together with Hurricane Lorena, which provided conditions that favored the recovery of soil moisture.

These months (August and September) are critical for agriculture and livestock as they constitute approximately half of the rainy season. For states located in the center of the country, where agriculture is practiced on a seasonal basis, droughts significantly impact the economy. Similarly, in the livestock sector, the drought left significant consequences. Below is an image taken in November 2019 at the Leopoldo Carvajal cattle farm located in the state of Tlaxcala. Here it can be seen that although the drought levels reported by the National Meteorological Service decreased, in some regions of the country, it still has substantial repercussions.

Finally, the months of October and November were exceptionally wet, which allowed the country to recover from the drought condition recorded during summer.

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Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

CLIMATE CHANGE AND HYDROMETEROLOGICAL HAZARDS Review of Dr. Cecilia Conde’s lecture at the seminar of the Chair María Elena Cerecedo Arroyo « As Diana Liverman points out, the arguments presented go from the unequivocal to the uncertain, which constitutes a serious problem of communicating current and future risks associated with global and regional climate change Cecilia Conde México, México ante el cambio climático p. 17»

r. Cecilia Conde, from the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, on November 7th, during the international seminar Climate Change and Hydrometeorological Hazards at the Universidad de las Américas Puebla, gave a speech on the topic “Climate Change and Hydrometeorological Extremes.”

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She began her lecture by pointing out that global warming is both a political and a technical issue, and that using this type of approach would be more appropriate for dealing with the studies, applications, and combating of situations triggered by climate change.

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SHE ESTABLISHED THE CONNECTION BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLITICS, WHERE POLITICIANS WILL BE THE ONES TO POINT OUT THE NEEDS OF A SOCIAL GROUP IN ENVIRONMENTAL TERMS, AND SCIENTISTS WILL CONDUCT THE NECESSARY STUDIES, INTERPRET THEM, AND LOOK FOR OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS THAT THE AUTHORITIES MAY APPLY IMMEDIATELY TO THE PROBLEMS ARISING FROM GLOBAL WARMING.

She established the connection between science and politics, where politicians will be the ones to point out the needs of a social group in environmental terms, and scientists will conduct the necessary studies, interpret them, and look for optimal solutions that the authorities may apply immediately to the problems arising from global warming.

The proposed relationship between science and politics will create a synergy with components of equality, equity, human rights, and collective rights; so she called on social scientists to join all projects involving climate change.

Later, she stated the need for specific and correct studies to find alternative solutions in ecological terms, involving several researchers or scientists from different fields as required, so that they know and determine how global warming affects the elements of the biosphere, oceans, soil, and social sectors that are immersed in this problem.

Because of the climate change and the problems involved, some treaties and protocols have been signed to protect the environment, involving joint decisions among most countries. One of the most important ones has been the Paris agreement.

She also referred to the climate variations on Earth, which have become a scientific and social concern, since all the governments of the world know about the serious socio-economic and political consequences of a natural disaster.

She identified the difference between climate variation in certain regions of the world and the increase in temperature due to climate change. The temperature increase is expected to be limited in the range of 1.5°C–2°C, a condition that has already resulted in the melting of glaciers, an increase in heat waves, and that will lead to the disappearance of coral reefs at the global level and a decrease in water supply, which will have significant effects.

She reflected on the idea of temperature and climate: what is expected during spring, summer, autumn, and winter, if it is going to be cold, hot, what to wear, if is appropriate to bring a sunshade, etc., since our life experience has led us to acquire this knowledge. However, according to her, we have already experienced the contrasts that climate change has brought during the seasons of the year: increase in temperature, unseasonal rains, more prolonged droughts, extreme heat during periods that should be cold, among many others. These phenomena represent the unequivocal condition that climate change is present; however, they produce conditions of uncertainty owing to the variation that they present and because they do not follow a pattern that can be defined to take it as a formula representing the future.

For the abovementioned reasons, the doctor concludes that climate change is a complex and uncertain issue, where scientists and scholars from different fields involved must come together to contribute with the knowledge of the effects it has brought to their field of study, to determine the adequate measures to reverse them as much as possible.

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doctorados

Number 14 · January-March 2020

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

SCARCITY INDEX: AN INDICATOR OF AVAILABILITY OR A TOOL FOR WATER MANAGEMENT? Paul Hernández Romero, Carlos Patiño Gómez, Benito Corona Vásquez, Polioptro F. Martínez Austria Entorno UDLAP Magazine, Issue No. 9. 2019. Pages 18–23 Summary of recent publications by members of the Chair

La Universidad de las Américas Puebla

convoca

A los egresados de Instituciones de educación superior nacionales y extranjeras interesados en ingresar, en agosto 2020, en los siguientes programas académicos pertenecientes al Programa Nacional de Posgrados de Calidad: Doctorado en Ciencia de Alimentos Doctorado en Ciencias del Agua Doctorado en Creación y Teorías de la Cultura

Doctorado en Sistemas Inteligentes Doctorado en Biomedicina Molecular

requisitos generales:

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ater shortages in a region or basin occur when water supplies are no longer adequate to meet the requirements for different uses, including the environment, that is, when the amount of water bodies (surface and groundwater) demanded is greater than a certain percentage of surface runoff and aquifers.

Thus, water stress is aggravated in regions where there is a high rate of population growth and continuous changes in consumption patterns due to climate variability. Water resources are increasingly stressed with increasing scarcity at different geographical levels (regions, countries, states, and watersheds). A regional analysis (Vörösmarty, Lévêque and Revenga, 2005) revealed that global water use increased at a rate of approximately 20% per decade between 1960 and 2000 and 10% between 2000 and 2010, with clear differences (of between 15% and 32%).

and thus helps water managers make better decisions based on the resulting trends. It also allows focusing on critical basins, such as the one analyzed in this work, with the objective of prioritizing and implementing a more efficient water management strategy. Finally, WSI, supported by a geographic information system (GIS), allows the assessment of regions with urban or agricultural settlements that demand more water in a basin, and thus proposes and implements sustainable measures such as reuse, technification, and artificial aquifer recharge. Similarly, this management tool can help in establishing public policies that contribute to the conservation of the resource.

Figure 1. Surface exploitation and underground of the Conchos river basin.

Because water availability in each region varies in space and time, currently only 25% of the world’s population is settled in basins with relative “abundance,” leaving the remaining 75% with moderate to severe water stress. By 2050, per capita water availability is projected to decrease by an average of 50% under normal weather conditions due to population increase alone.

The Water Security Index (WSI) is an indicator that allows the analysis of water availability in a region or basin where it is implemented. However, its scope goes far beyond just “indicating” whether water is available; it is a management tool that assesses whether there is historical information on demands made against natural drainage over the years, Available at https://entorno.udlap.mx/indice-de-escasez-un-indicador-de-disponibilidad-o-una-herramienta-para-la-gestion-del-agua/

A presentar junto con la Solicitud de Admisión al proceso de selección, en copias simples: 1. Certificado oficial de estudios o documento oficial en el que se dé constancia de haber obtenido un promedio mínimo de 8.5 en la licenciatura.

2. Copia simple de Título y Cédula Profesional de Licenciatura (En caso de no contar con estos documentos, tendrá que acercarse al área de Servicios Escolares para revisar la situación académica y poder continuar con el proceso).

3. Currículo en extenso, con fotografía reciente.

4. Carta de intención, en la que se argumenten las razones por las que ha elegido la institución, el programa de doctorado y el área de estudios.

5. Tres cartas de recomendación emitidas por profesores o autoridades vinculadas con el desempeño académico y/o profesional del aspirante, escritas en hojas membretadas y entregadas en sobre sellado (máximo un año de antigüedad).

6. Comprobante de resultados del examen EXADEP con puntaje mínimo de 570 o GRE con puntajes mínimos de 150 en razonamiento verbal, 130 en razonamiento cuantitativo y 3.5 en redacción analítica. (La vigencia de los comprobantes no debe ser mayor a 5 años).

7. Comprobante del examen TOEFL Institucional (puntaje mínimo 550) o cualquiera de los siguientes: TOEFL IBT (puntaje mínimo 79), IELTS (puntaje mínimo 6), o Cambridge English: Advanced (CAE). La vigencia del comprobante no debe ser mayor a 2 años.

Los interesados que hagan su solicitud por vía remota, deberán enviar en un solo correo la documentación completa en formato digital (PDF).

Todos los interesados que hayan aprobado las evaluaciones deberán realizar los trámites de ingreso y los trámites relativos a su beca requeridos por la Universidad ante las instancias correspondientes. Una vez que los interesados hayan completado satisfactoriamente todos los trámites, su status será de admitido al Doctorado correspondiente y deberán dedicar tiempo completo a sus estudios y actividades de investigación previstas en su plan de estudios.

requisitos adicionales Los siguientes requisitos son necesarios para aquellos interesados en ingresar al Doctorado en Creación y Teorías de la Cultura: 1. Certificado oficial de estudios de maestría o su equivalente con un promedio mínimo de 8.5 y constancia de título de grado que muestre el promedio.

2. Copia simple de Título y Cédula profesional de Maestría (En caso de no contar con estos documentos, tendrá que acercarse al área de Servicios Escolares para revisar la situación académica y poder continuar con el proceso).

3. Tesis de maestría o en su defecto un trabajo extenso escrito (35 págs).

4. Presentación del protocolo del proyecto de Investigación a desarrollar durante el doctorado.

procedimiento (consta de 3 etapas) Etapa Inicial

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Presentar su Solicitud de Admisión y documentación mencionada en Requisitos Generales y Requisitos Adicionales, de acuerdo al doctorado de interés, en la: Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado Oficina NE 201 O bien de manera electrónica Universidad de las Américas Puebla al correo: Ex Hacienda Santa Catarina Mártir Cholula Puebla · C.P. 72810 informes.doctorados@udlap.mx

El formato de Solicitud de Admisión se puede obtener en esta liga o también se puede solicitar directamente al correo electrónico antes señalado.

1. Una vez analizada la solicitud y los documentos que la acompañan, la Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado procederá a informar al Coordinador del Doctorado correspondiente, quien agendará una cita directamente con el solicitante.

Etapa Académica

1.

El solicitante acudirá el día y la hora fijada con el Coordinador del Doctorado, quien le informará las líneas de investigación y tutores disponibles, así como el procedimiento a seguir.

2. Al finalizar la etapa académica los aprobados, serán notificados por la Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado para continuar con la etapa administrativa.

Etapa Administrativa

1.

Los candidatos presentarán ante la Dirección Escolar la documentación complementaria que esta área les indique.

2. Una vez que esta Dirección apruebe toda la documentación, el candidato cambiará su status a admitido y será notificado por Dirección Escolar.

becas

Todos los candidatos admitidos contarán con una Beca Académica UDLAP Investigación que cubre la colegiatura y manutención mensual durante todo el programa, esta última en caso de no contar con otra beca que la cubra. No existe la posibilidad de ingresar o permanecer en el doctorado sin contar con la Beca Académica UDLAP Investigación. En el caso de estudiantes extranjeros que hayan sido aceptados a alguno de los doctorados, deberán contar con visa de estudiante tramitada en su país de origen.

En el caso de los solicitantes a Becas de Excelencia del Gobierno de México para Extranjeros, estos deberán apegarse a los lineamientos de la convocatoria vigente de la Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, así como a los tiempos y formas del proceso de admisión descrito en la presente convocatoria.

fechas Publicación de la convocatoria

1 de octubre de 2019

Periodo de entrega de solicitudes y documentación inicial mencionada en requisitos generales y adicionales

3 de octubre de 2019 al 8 de mayo de 2020

Periodo de entrevistas con el Coordinador del Doctorado

8 de octubre de 2019 al 22 de mayo de 2020

Publicación de Resultados

26 de junio de 2020

Entrega de documentación complementaria, trámites de inscripción y beca

Junio y julio de 2020

Inicio de clases

www.udlap.mx

10 agosto de 2020

CONOCE NUESTRA OFERTA ACADÉMICA

BOLETÍN DE LA CÁTEDRA UNESCO EN RIESGOS HIDROMETEOROLÓGICOS NEWSLETTER OF THE UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

EDITORIAL COORDINATIONS

Editor

Polioptro F. Martínez Austria

Style correction

Aldo Chiquini Zamora Andrea Garza Carbajal

Editorial design

Andrea Monserrat Flores Santaella

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNESCO Chair on Hydrometeorological Risks, Universidad de las Américas Puebla

The unesco Chair on Hydrometerological Risks Newsletter is a quarterly publication which reports on the activities of the Chair and its members, unesco news related to it, as well as general information on disasters and hydrometeorological risks. It is elaborated by the Universidad de las Américas Puebla. Ex hacienda Sta. Catarina Martir s/n. C. P. 72810, San Andres Cholula, Mexico.

The authors are responsible for the choice and presentation of the opinions contained in this newsletter. Likewise, of the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization.

www.udlap.mx/catedraunesco polioptro.martinez@udlap.mx