BUSINESS FORECAST ITR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Looking Ahead to a Slowdown in 2023 GAWDA members will have to battle through a slowdown in the second half of the year. BY STEVE GUGLIELMO AND BRIAN BEAULIEU
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ollowing three tumultuous years marked by outside influences on the business community, 2023 will see a return to a sense of normalcy in 2023. However, with that normalcy comes the prospect of a slowdown in the second half of the year. We had the opportunity to speak with GAWDA’s Chief Economist and President and CEO of ITR Economics Brian Beaulieu about what GAWDA members can expect this year. Check out the full first quarter forecast on pages 58 for a deeper dive into what the firm expects to see in the economy in early 2023. Also, check out the January 15th episode of GAWDA TV to see an interview with Brian on his expectations for the year ahead. We thank Brian for his help and insight in putting this forecast together.
WELDING & GASES TODAY: What is the overall economic outlook for the welding & gases industry in 2023?
BRIAN BEAULIEU: It's really mixed. The federal reserve has
put us into an inverse yield curve situation. And that is giving us an 88% probability that in the second half of 2023, we are going to find conditions weakening for our industry. GAWDA members are going to have to battle through that in order to make 2023 the year that they would like it to be. On a dollar basis, it's going to be easier than on a volume basis to call it a flat year, relative to 2022. But it can be done. We know these ladies and gentlemen. They can do it.
WGT: The last three years have had outside influences that have been challenges. First COVID, then inflation and supply chain shortages. Do you see the business environment returning to a semblance of normalcy this year? Or will we still see those outside influences continuing to have an outsize impact on business?
BB: Yes. It will have some degree of normalcy associated with it in that supply chains are becoming more normal. They aren't back to normal, but they are becoming more normal. And I think that's going to continue. We're seeing onshoring going on more and more. Investment into the United States remains very strong. And that is going to help make business conditions get more into a rhythm and feel the way that they used to feel. The labor shortage is going to continue to be a problem. And that's not ever going to feel normal, I don't think. But we control what we can control. And what is normal is treating your people right and having a very strong, positive culture, and doing the best you can. WGT: ITR produces an incredible amount of information through your website. You also have the quarterly forecast in each issue, including this one on page 88. If you were in an elevator with a GAWDA member and you only had a minute to talk, what is the biggest takeaway you would want them to walk into 2023 with?
BB: The biggest takeaway I would like to impart on people is that with everything going on around us and all the swirling news, just focus on what you can control. We can't control interest rates. We can't control inflation. But we can control how we react to those. If you focus on what you can control, and do that very well, then the rest of it tends to diminish in relative importance. And that is the best way to get through, particularly the second half of 2023. WGT: Are there any growth markets that have presented themselves specific to GAWDA members?
BB: There are some markets that have been impervious to the
whole pandemic. Healthcare, for one. Supermarkets, obviously, for another. But those are going to be returning to normal. I think that some of the members are going to find more milFirst Quarter 2023 • 85
