SALES & MARKETING SELLING IN THE NEW NORMAL
Sales Pipeline Forecasting Fact or Fiction? BY JAY SPIELVOGEL, VENATOR SALES GROUP, LLC
“I
believe I have a 50/50 shot of getting an order.” “They loved our pricing; I’d give this a 75% chance of closing at this point.” “My contact is reviewing our quote internally; I’d say we have a 90% chance of closing this one.” Jay Spielvogel is CEO of Venator Sales Group (GAWDA member), a sales consulting and training firm specializing in boosting Welding and Gas distribution sales performance. Contact him at: Jay@ venatorsalesgroup.com
70 • Fall 2021
SOUND FAMILIAR? How often do you hear these optimistic statements from your sales team, and then find yourself asking, “Whatever happened to all of the other deals that you forecasted at 90% chance of closure?” Only to hear the typical responses: “They are sticking with their existing supplier.” “My prospect wasn’t able to get the budget.” “Turns out they were looking at another competitor that offered a better price.” This scenario is being played out across the globe, in every distributor organization small and large, by salespeople who are feeling the pressure to show pipeline activity. When required to assign a stage and percentage chance of closure to a deal, the critical thinking for most salespeople is biased by wishful optimism and hopeful inference. On one hand, pipeline stage and forecasting are highly influenced by downward pressure from management to show opportunities that have a chance to close during the current quarter. On the other, salespeople are influenced by positive feedback and interest they receive from their main contact. When asked, most sales leaders will admit it is a numbers game and that the team is closing less than 25% of the deals that are forecasted at 50% or greater. In some cases, the deals are completely falling apart, while in others the “first order” dates keep getting moved and stretched from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.
“Inference is an invasion of the unknown, a leap from the known” – JOHN DEWEY (American Philosopher, psychologist, and educational reformer)
THE QUESTION IS “WHY IS OUR FORECASTED PIPELINE SO UNRELIABLE?” Does it point to a need for more… 1. Sales training and sales playbooks on qualifying and closing? 2. Hiring a team of inside hunters to free our outside team up to focus on closing? 3. Management involvement helping to close late-stage deals? These are all good tactical approaches that can help drive sales by applying more energy, time, and resources. Unfortunately, these solutions still do not get to the root cause of the forecasting issue.
MISALIGNMENT BETWEEN SALES PROCESS AND PIPELINE STAGES Regardless of the type of sales training and process a company has adopted, they all have several core components the sales team needs to follow: • Take the time to uncover the business drivers (Pain, Issues, Concerns and Vision). • Gain full clarity and access to all the stakeholders involved. • Clarify the budget allocation, “real” timeline, and formal approval process.