Bend services tax poll

Page 1

City of Bend Voters February 2010

1


Methodology

2


Voter Mood

3


Voters are Optimistic About Direction of Bend “Do you think that the City of Bend is generally headed in the right direction, or not?� (Q1)

4


Voter Mood: Key Subgroups Don’t know

No, not right direction

Net yes

55%

17%

29%

+26%

Men

55%

18%

27%

+28%

Women

54%

16%

30%

+24%

18-34

71%

9%

21%

+50%

35+

51%

19%

30%

+21%

Democrats

59%

18%

22%

+37%

Republicans

52%

17%

31%

+21%

Independents

50%

15%

35%

+15%

All voters

Yes, right direction

Gender

Age

Party

5


Satisfaction with City Services

6


Voters are Widely Satisfied with City Fire & Emergency Services “The City of Bend Fire Department provides fire protection and emergency medical services for the City of Bend. Thinking specifically about those services, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not satisfied at all?� (Q2)

7


Why Satisfied with City Fire Department Services IF SATISFIED: “Why are you satisfied?” (Q3, N=353)

8


Why Dissatisfied with City Fire Department Services? IF DISSATISFIED: “Why are you dissatisfied?” (Q4, N=5)

9


Voters are Widely Satisfied with City Police Department Services “Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not satisfied at all with the City of Bend Police Department’s level of service?” (Q5)

10


Why Satisfied with City Police Department Services? IF SATISFIED: “Why are you satisfied?” (Q6, N=345)

11


Why Dissatisfied with City Police Department Services? IF DISSATISFIED: “Why are you dissatisfied?” (Q7, N=31)

12


Public Safety Funding Proposals

13


A Majority are Unwilling to Pay Additional Taxes to Avoid Cuts in Safety Service Levels “How willing are you to pay additional property taxes in order to avoid cuts to existing public safety service levels?” (Q8)

“Very unwilling” outnumbers “very willing” 2 to 1

14


Willingness to Pay Additional Taxes to Avoid Cuts: Key Subgroups GENDER

PARTY

Men

Women

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Very willing

12%

19%

22%

10%

14%

Fairly willing

23%

28%

33%

20%

22%

TOTAL willing

35%

47%

55%

30%

36%

TOTAL unwilling

56%

46%

35%

59%

59%

Net willing

-21%

+1%

+20%

-29%

-23%

15


Voters Oppose 41-Cent Fire Department Annexation Proposal “One funding option would be to annex the City of Bend Fire Department to the rural fire district. To maintain the current level of fire and emergency medical services, would you favor or oppose a property tax increase of 41 cents per thousand of assessed property value, in order to annex the City of Bend Fire Department to the Deschutes County Rural Fire Protection District #2 – this means that the same fire and emergency services would be provided by the Fire District rather than the City of Bend.” (Q9)

16


41-Cent Annexation Proposal: Key Subgroups Favor

Don’t know

Oppose

Net favor

28%

24%

48%

-20%

Men

26%

17%

58%

-32%

Women

30%

29%

40%

-10%

18-34

40%

22%

38%

+2%

35-64

29%

21%

50%

-21%

65+

17%

33%

50%

-33%

Democrats

37%

21%

42%

-5%

Republicans

17%

28%

55%

-38%

Independents

29%

21%

50%

-21%

All voters Gender

Age

Party

17


Support for Annexation Proposal IF FAVOR: “Why do you favor annexation?” (Q10, N=113)

18


Opposition to 41-Cent Annexation Proposal: Cost IF OPPOSE: “Why would you oppose annexation?” (Q11, N=193)

19


Voters Oppose Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy “Another funding alternative to maintain current levels of public safety services, would be a fiveyear local option tax levy to fund fire and police services. Would you favor or oppose a 5-year local option tax levy that would increase property taxes by 41 cents per thousand dollars of assessed property value?� (Q12)

20


Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy: Key Subgroups Favor

Don’t know

Oppose

Net favor

37%

9%

55%

-18%

Men

29%

5%

66%

-37%

Women

44%

11%

45%

-1%

18-34

53%

4%

43%

+10%

35-64

33%

9%

58%

-25%

65+

35%

10%

55%

-20%

Democrats

47%

7%

47%

Republicans

25%

11%

64%

-39%

Independents

37%

8%

55%

-18%

All voters Gender

Age

Party --

21


Support for Five-Year Local Option Levy IF FAVOR: “Why would you favor annexation?” (Q13, N=148)

22


Opposition to Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy: Cost IF OPPOSE: “Why would you oppose annexation?” (Q14, N=218)

23


Tax-Neutral Proposal Finds Majority Support “Several years ago, City of Bend voters passed the downtown Urban Renewal Assessment, which is 27 cents per thousand of assessed property value. This tax will be retired in two years. Instead of retiring that debt in two years, would you favor or oppose re-authorizing those 27 cents to fund public safety services, resulting in a no-net increase in property tax rates?� (Q15)

24


Tax-Neutral Proposal: Key Subgroups Favor

Don’t know

Oppose

Net favor

62%

9%

29%

+33%

Men

52%

8%

40%

+12%

Women

71%

9%

20%

+51%

18-44

72%

7%

21%

+51%

45-64

61%

7%

32%

+29%

65+

50%

14%

36%

+14%

Democrats

71%

5%

24%

+47%

Republicans

59%

12%

30%

+29%

Independents

53%

10%

37%

+16%

All voters Gender

Age

Party

25


Voters Oppose G.O. Bond for Capital Improvements “Another way to free up money for public safety is for the community to pass a General Obligation Bond that would provide funding for capital improvements to the City’s water, sewer, and street infrastructure. Would you favor or oppose additional property taxes to improve the City’s water, sewer, and street infrastructure?” (Q17)

26


G.O Bond for Capital Improvements: Key Subgroup Favor

Don’t know

Oppose

Net favor

39%

12%

50%

-11%

Democrat

45%

11%

44%

+1%

Republicans

28%

16%

56%

-28%

Independents

44%

7%

49%

-5%

All voters Party

27


“14-Cent Tax Increase” Has Little Impact on Support for Funding Proposals “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for additional funding for public safety, through annexation or a local option levy, if it resulted in a 14 cent increase per thousand dollars of assessed property value, or about $28 dollars per year for the owner of a $200,000 home?” (Q16)

28


Message Testing

29


Voter Communications Themes “Now I am going to read to you some statements regarding the various proposed funding options for public safety, including fire, emergency medical and police services. Please rate how useful the information would be to you in helping decide whether or not you would vote for any of the three public safety funding options.”

Useful

Don’t know

Not useful

All property tax revenues raised will be used to fund fire, emergency medical and police services (Q19)

72%

6%

22%

The City’s tax rate of $2.80 per thousand is one of the lowest in Oregon and, as a result, has not kept pace with the cost of providing public safety services (Q18)

69%

9%

23%

If the City does not increase funding, public safety services such as police, fire and emergency medical services will experience cuts in service levels (Q20)

62%

9%

30% 30


Summary and Highlights

31


Summary and Highlights - 1: Widespread Satisfaction with City Fire and Police Services • Today, most city voters are satisfied with services provided by the City Fire Department and Police Department: Fully 88% are very (63%) or somewhat (26%) satisfied with fire protection and emergency medical services provided by the City of Bend Fire Department. Just 1% are dissatisfied and 11% have no opinion Fully 86% are very (48%) or somewhat (38%) satisfied with the City of Bend Police Department’s level of service. Just 8% are dissatisfied and 6% have no opinion 32


Summary and Highlights - 2: There is Strong Anti-Tax Sentiment Among City Voters Today • Just 42% say they are willing to pay additional property taxes to avoid cuts to existing public safety service levels and 51% are unwilling. The remaining 8% have no opinion • Of three potential public safety funding proposals tested, only a proposal resulting in a “no-net increase” in taxes finds support today Re-authorizing the 27 cents per thousand from the downtown Urban Renewal Assessment to fund public safety services, instead of retiring debt is favored by a 62-29% margin, with 9% undecided Annexing the City of Bend Fire Department to the rural fire district at a cost of 41 cents per thousand is opposed 48% to 28% A five-year local option tax levy to fund fire and police services at a cost of 41 cents per thousand is opposed 55% to 37% 33


Summary and Highlights - 3: Message Testing • Informing voters that annexation or local option levy would result in a 14 cent increase per thousand, or $28 per year for the owner of a $200,000 home has little impact on voting intentions (48% more likely to support proposals, 38% less likely) • Voters rate each of the following statements as useful in helping them decide whether or not to vote for any of the three public safety funding options All property tax revenues raised will be used to fund fire, emergency medical and police services (72% useful, 22% not useful) The City’s tax rate of $2.80 per thousand is one of the lowest in Oregon and, as a result, has not kept pace with the cost of providing public safety services (69% useful, 23% not useful) If the City does not increase funding, public safety services such as police, fire and emergency medical services will experience cuts in service levels (62% useful, 30% not useful) 34


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