City of Bend Voters February 2010
1
Methodology
2
Voter Mood
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Voters are Optimistic About Direction of Bend “Do you think that the City of Bend is generally headed in the right direction, or not?� (Q1)
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Voter Mood: Key Subgroups Don’t know
No, not right direction
Net yes
55%
17%
29%
+26%
Men
55%
18%
27%
+28%
Women
54%
16%
30%
+24%
18-34
71%
9%
21%
+50%
35+
51%
19%
30%
+21%
Democrats
59%
18%
22%
+37%
Republicans
52%
17%
31%
+21%
Independents
50%
15%
35%
+15%
All voters
Yes, right direction
Gender
Age
Party
5
Satisfaction with City Services
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Voters are Widely Satisfied with City Fire & Emergency Services “The City of Bend Fire Department provides fire protection and emergency medical services for the City of Bend. Thinking specifically about those services, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not satisfied at all?� (Q2)
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Why Satisfied with City Fire Department Services IF SATISFIED: “Why are you satisfied?” (Q3, N=353)
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Why Dissatisfied with City Fire Department Services? IF DISSATISFIED: “Why are you dissatisfied?” (Q4, N=5)
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Voters are Widely Satisfied with City Police Department Services “Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not satisfied at all with the City of Bend Police Department’s level of service?” (Q5)
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Why Satisfied with City Police Department Services? IF SATISFIED: “Why are you satisfied?” (Q6, N=345)
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Why Dissatisfied with City Police Department Services? IF DISSATISFIED: “Why are you dissatisfied?” (Q7, N=31)
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Public Safety Funding Proposals
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A Majority are Unwilling to Pay Additional Taxes to Avoid Cuts in Safety Service Levels “How willing are you to pay additional property taxes in order to avoid cuts to existing public safety service levels?” (Q8)
“Very unwilling” outnumbers “very willing” 2 to 1
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Willingness to Pay Additional Taxes to Avoid Cuts: Key Subgroups GENDER
PARTY
Men
Women
Dem.
Rep.
Ind.
Very willing
12%
19%
22%
10%
14%
Fairly willing
23%
28%
33%
20%
22%
TOTAL willing
35%
47%
55%
30%
36%
TOTAL unwilling
56%
46%
35%
59%
59%
Net willing
-21%
+1%
+20%
-29%
-23%
15
Voters Oppose 41-Cent Fire Department Annexation Proposal “One funding option would be to annex the City of Bend Fire Department to the rural fire district. To maintain the current level of fire and emergency medical services, would you favor or oppose a property tax increase of 41 cents per thousand of assessed property value, in order to annex the City of Bend Fire Department to the Deschutes County Rural Fire Protection District #2 – this means that the same fire and emergency services would be provided by the Fire District rather than the City of Bend.” (Q9)
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41-Cent Annexation Proposal: Key Subgroups Favor
Don’t know
Oppose
Net favor
28%
24%
48%
-20%
Men
26%
17%
58%
-32%
Women
30%
29%
40%
-10%
18-34
40%
22%
38%
+2%
35-64
29%
21%
50%
-21%
65+
17%
33%
50%
-33%
Democrats
37%
21%
42%
-5%
Republicans
17%
28%
55%
-38%
Independents
29%
21%
50%
-21%
All voters Gender
Age
Party
17
Support for Annexation Proposal IF FAVOR: “Why do you favor annexation?” (Q10, N=113)
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Opposition to 41-Cent Annexation Proposal: Cost IF OPPOSE: “Why would you oppose annexation?” (Q11, N=193)
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Voters Oppose Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy “Another funding alternative to maintain current levels of public safety services, would be a fiveyear local option tax levy to fund fire and police services. Would you favor or oppose a 5-year local option tax levy that would increase property taxes by 41 cents per thousand dollars of assessed property value?� (Q12)
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Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy: Key Subgroups Favor
Don’t know
Oppose
Net favor
37%
9%
55%
-18%
Men
29%
5%
66%
-37%
Women
44%
11%
45%
-1%
18-34
53%
4%
43%
+10%
35-64
33%
9%
58%
-25%
65+
35%
10%
55%
-20%
Democrats
47%
7%
47%
Republicans
25%
11%
64%
-39%
Independents
37%
8%
55%
-18%
All voters Gender
Age
Party --
21
Support for Five-Year Local Option Levy IF FAVOR: “Why would you favor annexation?” (Q13, N=148)
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Opposition to Five-Year Local Option Tax Levy: Cost IF OPPOSE: “Why would you oppose annexation?” (Q14, N=218)
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Tax-Neutral Proposal Finds Majority Support “Several years ago, City of Bend voters passed the downtown Urban Renewal Assessment, which is 27 cents per thousand of assessed property value. This tax will be retired in two years. Instead of retiring that debt in two years, would you favor or oppose re-authorizing those 27 cents to fund public safety services, resulting in a no-net increase in property tax rates?� (Q15)
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Tax-Neutral Proposal: Key Subgroups Favor
Don’t know
Oppose
Net favor
62%
9%
29%
+33%
Men
52%
8%
40%
+12%
Women
71%
9%
20%
+51%
18-44
72%
7%
21%
+51%
45-64
61%
7%
32%
+29%
65+
50%
14%
36%
+14%
Democrats
71%
5%
24%
+47%
Republicans
59%
12%
30%
+29%
Independents
53%
10%
37%
+16%
All voters Gender
Age
Party
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Voters Oppose G.O. Bond for Capital Improvements “Another way to free up money for public safety is for the community to pass a General Obligation Bond that would provide funding for capital improvements to the City’s water, sewer, and street infrastructure. Would you favor or oppose additional property taxes to improve the City’s water, sewer, and street infrastructure?” (Q17)
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G.O Bond for Capital Improvements: Key Subgroup Favor
Don’t know
Oppose
Net favor
39%
12%
50%
-11%
Democrat
45%
11%
44%
+1%
Republicans
28%
16%
56%
-28%
Independents
44%
7%
49%
-5%
All voters Party
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“14-Cent Tax Increase” Has Little Impact on Support for Funding Proposals “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for additional funding for public safety, through annexation or a local option levy, if it resulted in a 14 cent increase per thousand dollars of assessed property value, or about $28 dollars per year for the owner of a $200,000 home?” (Q16)
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Message Testing
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Voter Communications Themes “Now I am going to read to you some statements regarding the various proposed funding options for public safety, including fire, emergency medical and police services. Please rate how useful the information would be to you in helping decide whether or not you would vote for any of the three public safety funding options.”
Useful
Don’t know
Not useful
All property tax revenues raised will be used to fund fire, emergency medical and police services (Q19)
72%
6%
22%
The City’s tax rate of $2.80 per thousand is one of the lowest in Oregon and, as a result, has not kept pace with the cost of providing public safety services (Q18)
69%
9%
23%
If the City does not increase funding, public safety services such as police, fire and emergency medical services will experience cuts in service levels (Q20)
62%
9%
30% 30
Summary and Highlights
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Summary and Highlights - 1: Widespread Satisfaction with City Fire and Police Services • Today, most city voters are satisfied with services provided by the City Fire Department and Police Department: Fully 88% are very (63%) or somewhat (26%) satisfied with fire protection and emergency medical services provided by the City of Bend Fire Department. Just 1% are dissatisfied and 11% have no opinion Fully 86% are very (48%) or somewhat (38%) satisfied with the City of Bend Police Department’s level of service. Just 8% are dissatisfied and 6% have no opinion 32
Summary and Highlights - 2: There is Strong Anti-Tax Sentiment Among City Voters Today • Just 42% say they are willing to pay additional property taxes to avoid cuts to existing public safety service levels and 51% are unwilling. The remaining 8% have no opinion • Of three potential public safety funding proposals tested, only a proposal resulting in a “no-net increase” in taxes finds support today Re-authorizing the 27 cents per thousand from the downtown Urban Renewal Assessment to fund public safety services, instead of retiring debt is favored by a 62-29% margin, with 9% undecided Annexing the City of Bend Fire Department to the rural fire district at a cost of 41 cents per thousand is opposed 48% to 28% A five-year local option tax levy to fund fire and police services at a cost of 41 cents per thousand is opposed 55% to 37% 33
Summary and Highlights - 3: Message Testing • Informing voters that annexation or local option levy would result in a 14 cent increase per thousand, or $28 per year for the owner of a $200,000 home has little impact on voting intentions (48% more likely to support proposals, 38% less likely) • Voters rate each of the following statements as useful in helping them decide whether or not to vote for any of the three public safety funding options All property tax revenues raised will be used to fund fire, emergency medical and police services (72% useful, 22% not useful) The City’s tax rate of $2.80 per thousand is one of the lowest in Oregon and, as a result, has not kept pace with the cost of providing public safety services (69% useful, 23% not useful) If the City does not increase funding, public safety services such as police, fire and emergency medical services will experience cuts in service levels (62% useful, 30% not useful) 34