6 minute read
Valentín Elías Pineda
By Valentín Elías Pineda
THE projection of digital camera resolution progress with 1 megapixel available in the market in 2000, 10 megapixels in 2010, and 100 Megapixels in 2020, can be expected to continue with 1,000 Megapixels in 2030 and 10,000 Megapixel in 2040.
Computer calculation capacity was 10 E+8 calculations per second in domestic computer 1000US$ affordable around 2000, continued with 10E+10 in 2010, 10E+12 in 2020, and expected to continue with similar progress with 10E+14 in 2030 and increasing to 10E+20 in 2040 with the domain of quantum computing.
Said like this, it sounds like I’m talking about mere statistics, but in fact, I’m talking about the two main components that will build a completely new society between 2033 and 2038. The changes will oblige us to take a different path that leads to great chaos and disaster and forces us to change our society to respect what it is today.
Here is my reasoning. 2033 is a feasible date when domestic computing capability will reach one human brain capability with sensing capacity slightly superior to human senses. Visual acuity of cameras and screens will surpass human eye resolution, headphones will capture more resolution in sound than the human ear, the smell will be identified with more capability than the dog, and haptic suits will be capable of transmitting heat and cold to skin. In fact, human sensing and computing capability will be surpassed by one of the machines, and human senses, except
for taste, will be completely tricked and surpassed by machines.
This is the birth of superintelligence. The first event is related to AI progress that will completely transform our ways of living and acting.
Robots can nearly imitate perfectly human and animal motion at present, and the future will see new, more resistant materials, improved capacity storage of batteries and even the capability to incorporate printed 3D organs by 2038.
Robots foreseen to exist in 2033-2038 will surpass human computing capability, have more sensing and displacement capacity than humans or animals, and with other abilities that living beings do not have, their brain can be real-time interconnected to other alike beings, Internet, and databases.
The capability to completely trick human senses except taste will send sensations via e-mail or WhatsApp, being immersed in whatever environment, real or fictitious, or touching objects that are not real.
These capabilities applied to our society as we manage today may result in the following: n You will not need to travel physically to visit any site in the world or a distant person. You will be able to enjoy a similar experience without leaving your room. As a result, the travel industry will suffer a huge re-dimensioning. n The mentioned superintelligent robots will be capable of wiping out around 85% of human jobs, leaving the artistic or creative ones only. Government structures will suffer a great re-dimensioning in their budgets to sustain so many unemployed people. n Human soldiers will become obsolete compared to robotic soldiers and construction workers. n All concerts up until now will be capable of conversion to 3D and brought back to the public, and films will evolve into 3D immersive environments. In addition, 3D actors can be created and customized. So it sounds like the future Hollywood will not need to pay high bills to actors. n Entertainment will be capable of creating whichever 3D environment for game players. n Communication capabilities will improve using immersive environments, but will you be sure you talk to the right person and not a replication of them? n A professor will be able to teach one class in room A, but its 3D replication can make this in room B. 3D immersive superintelligent applications will also drive a high digital evolution in education. n Customized robots and 3D beings open the way to deal with virtual past personalities, cybernetic friends and even couples. Will humanity end on a pleasure extinction trap because humans do not look for humans to get in touch with because they prefer to get related with Superintelligent beings?
Meanwhile, human brains are not expected to evolve in the 2033–2038-time frame with respect to today’s size and capability respect what they are today in this 2033-2038 time frame. Superintelligent knowledge is expected to inflate and inflate, taking on all human knowledge, machine knowledge and environment knowledge.
The possibility that Superintelligence replace humanity as the dominant specie on Earth increases as AI includes emotional intelligence.
Will human decisions surround the market and take the mentioned risk of using superintelligence? Or rather, a continuous debug and monitoring of superintelligence and foresight of disconnection is needed if we are to avoid this from happening?
If the market supports all customer demands, this will almost be sure that Superintelligence will be emotional one day.
I’m talking about… the end of Globalization as we know it today. So this type of market will be Eaten by itself during this period.
We may see the second huge milestone in AI in 2038 with the Birth of Predictive superintelligence.
The capability of user computing to emulate thousands of human brains and 15 times more accurate sensing than humananimal will be capable of real-time replicating the surrounding environment and accelerating it virtually. From this time on, the progress in calculation capacity can accelerate the real-time captured scenario in computer simulations and then achieve the capability of predicting events before they are produced.
The capability of computers to predict the future (Predictive Superintelligence) will start by guessing what will happen in 2-3 seconds ahead at the beginning of its development. We may have accurate predictive oracles capable of predicting accidents, bad harvests, confrontations etc., in 12-15 more years and will calculate the solution and reverse the bad event before this bad predicted event happens.
The capability to accurately predict will result in matching need and availability, the new economy top effective, predicting disasters, illness ... but this only in case humans control superintelligence previously, the opposite is superintelligence having overall control of us.
Then the correct management of AI in this 2033-2038 period is crucial for human evolution.
This period expects to see such other milestones: n The appearance of early operational space elevators n The appearance of early fusion reactors n The appearance of early room superconductors
The need to correctly manage AI with the appearance of such milestones indicates the way to choose a different evolution path, leaving Globalization, being energetically efficient and migrating from Earth to Space-based resources. I’m talking about… The Great Transition.
Future foresight indicates two clear paths to using AI. Keeping human jobs not needing to be automated, taking care of the planet and its resources, recycling, avoiding wasting, illness curing and using AI for responsible deep sea and space colonization purposes will offer us a level of wealth never seen before. On the other hand, used to automate whatever job, speculation or cloning and imitating human beings is the secure drive to unbearable chaos and a deep Malthusian future. The choice is ours, and it is for now.
I also wish to add this appropriate sentence from Dr. Kai Fu Lee in his book “AI Superpowers”:
“Let us choose to let machines be machines and let humans be humans. Let us choose to simply use our machines, and more importantly, to love one another.”
Meanwhile, humans continue working, opining, living, loving, and enjoying; this will be because human decisions prevail over AI ones and humans control AI.
THE AUTHOR
Valentín Elías Pineda, Futurist Writer, Technology And Futurism Barcelona, Spain
