Victor V. Motti

THE UKRAINE WAR AND OUR COMMON FUTURE

By Victor V. Motti

I’M sure that most of you, like me, are very interested in following the news about the Ukraine War.

The day after the invasion began, I used a very powerful visual tool to systematically map out the direct and indirect implications of the war in Europe. The map went viral on LinkedIn.

Since that day, I could say that my foresight was correct, and the story is unfolding as I imagined. That tool is called the Future Wheel, which I have been using for a long time in my career as a foresight consultant.

Today, I will also combine this method with another magic method of scenario planning that I describe as modern mythology narrative development. Let’s see how they work and what we can learn from applying them.

The Future Wheel puts the focal issue of interest in the center and then asks us to brainstorm about the direct and indirect implications in several interconnected layers.

We have to be both creative and point to potential supporting evidence. This is done to make sense of the big picture and the long term. The insights that are generated are extremely useful for corporate strategy in the face of geopolitical risk.

The first layer in the red color shows us the direct impacts or implications of the Ukraine War. See the defense budget, for example. I expected that the US at least double its budget, but quite interestingly and shockingly, Germany acted first very soon. It made a 180-degree turn in its defence policy and raised its defense budget to 100 billion Euros. This is enormous indeed.

Or take a look at the huge challenge of war refugees in the EU. This is also almost unprecedented since the end of World War II. More than 14 million people are on the move, forced to leave their homes. Should we anticipate a more socialist Europe?

The second layer of impact in the future wheel is even more interesting. It demonstrates that the clean energy transformation is accelerated because Russia is using fossil fuel as a key card to play and put pressure on the Western powers. Also, inflation in the West, and food shortage, are direct consequences of the sanctions. The pandemic accelerated the digital transformation, and the Russian invasion is now

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ urn:li:activity:6903125294514065408/

accelerating the renewable energy transition.

At the third layer of impact, the picture becomes even more strategic because it shows the new world order that will emerge after the war in Europe.

Instability in Russia’s allies, the collapse of states in the Middle East, more space privatization after the rising tensions between the US and Russia, and, more importantly, investment in Africa and the rise of India are among the key developments.

Today, I even saw in the news that India is making a huge profit by buying the insanely discounted Russian oil, mixing it with other oil sources, and selling it to US customers. You see that war has both losers and winners. Or look at Qatar, which is now seriously talking to Germany to replace the Russian gas. Another big winner!

The Future Wheel is a fantastic tool that shapes our deep understanding of the underlying and systemic complex changes on the horizon. But what is the general narrative here? Do we have a story that could explain everything? Let’s apply mythology as an art of sense-making and storytelling. And think about the Players, or gods, of the Narrative like this.

1. The god of energy and food (Russia)1 2. The god of money and technology (USA)2 3. The god of councils and community (China)3 4. The god of diversity and liberal democracy (EU)4 5. The god of disease, deluge and drought (Climate Change)5 6. The god of code, brain and mind (India)6

Here is the Synopsis of the Narrative that might catch your attention and make sense to you! It could be your takeaway from my talk today!

The god of energy and food mates for the last time with the god of money and technology, and soon after smashing some plates in the kitchen and ripping up their bed, setting parts of their house on fire, they become separated; the god of diversity and liberal democracy obtains custody of the strong yet devastated divorce children, the pregnant god goes into labor and delivers the new baby at the temple run by the god of councils and community, the new child cannot live with them there for long because of the hardship caused by the god of disease, deluge and drought, and soon will be adopted by the god of code, brain and mind in the temple of Zurvan, who will bring it up and nurture that kid into a mature adult.

When I shared this story with a futurist based in Africa, he told me that Africa could be the god of natural resources and youth in the narrative. And I said, “yes, in the very long term, Africa could be the bride, and the kid that represents the new world order nurtured by the Indian mind will marry her, and they make an alliance or family!”

NOTES: 1 https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-commodities/oil-gas-wheat-andaluminium-jump-as-russia-sanctions-bite-idUSKBN2KZ29C 2 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0705 3 https://www.cfr.org/china-global-governance/ 4 https://www.euro-access.eu/calls/green_pharmaceuticals_1 5 https://bywire.news/articles/un-warns-of-total-societal-collapse-due-to-breaching-ofplanetary-boundaries 6 https://fortune.com/2021/12/03/twitter-ceo-tech-industry-microsoft-google-siliconvalley-indian-born-leaders/

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