Introducttion: In sprin ng of 2010, the Center for Whole C Communitiees hired con nsultant Danyelle O’Hara to research some questtions about demographhic changes in America. We wanted more statistical documentatiion, and a fuller understanding, to sup pport our currriculum arou und climate change and its effect on o various po opulations. The T following g report givees a summa ary of that
research. The questtion(s) posed d : What is th he most res spected bod dy that dete ermines whiich parts off USA willl be most afffected by climate c chan nge? There e have been n two reportts about clim mate change and a environ nmental jus stice that as ssert that lo ow-income p people of co olor will be most afffected by cllimate chan nge, but we have not se een a transllation of thiis assertion n into actual ge eographies s: which phy ysical comm munities wil ill be most a affected by climate change? ? This inform mation will be extreme ely importan nt for our cllimate chan nge work. 1. What iis the most re espected bod dy that determ mines which parts of the United Statees will be mosst affected b by climate ch hange? United Staates Global Climate Changge Research P Program http://glo obalchange.go ov
The U.S. Global Chaange Researcch Program (USGCRP) ( ccoordinates and integrattes federal research on changes in the globall environmen nt and their implicationss for society. Thirteen departmeents and agen ncies (comm merce, defensse, energy, innterior, statee, transportattion, HHS, NASA, NSF, N Smithsonian, US AID, A USDA, and EPA) pparticipate inn the USGCR RP, which w was known ass the U.S. Cllimate Chan nge Science Program P from m 2002 throough 2008. T The program is steered by b the Subcommittee on Global Chan nge Researchh under the C Committee oon Environm ment and Natu ural Resourcees, overseen n by the Execcutive Officee of the Pressident and faacilitated by an Integratio on and Coorrdination Offfice. On Februaary 2010 the president announced thatt NOAA will seet up the new w NOAA Climate Service to o operate in n tandem with NOAA's National Weather Service annd National Ocean Service.. The USGCRP is now falls under this NO OAA agency. http://ww ww.noaa.gov//climate.htmll 2. Which physical com mmunities will be most afffected by clim mate change??
I understand this as a people and place questiion – which specific peoople in whichh specific pllaces will be most m affected d by climate change? Infformation I w was able to ffind did not address thesse two thing gs together in n any specifficity. In facct, researcherrs note that a critical rolee for climatee policy is to establish a way to ideentify the loccations wherre vulnerablee populationns will be moost Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
impacted d by climate change. (Seee http://www w.huffingtonnpost.com/raachel-morelllofrosch/the-climate-g gap-is-federaa_b_209355.html Is Fed deral Policy D Doing Enouggh to Narrow w the Disparrities for Peoplle of Color and a the Poor? May 30, 2009) 2 In ““The C Climate Gap” 2009 Rachel Morello‐Frossch, UC Berkeeley, and Man nuel Pasteur, USC, use origginal research tto documentss that climate e change (and d associated eextreme weatther events, iincreased air pollution and higher prices for basicc necessities) will dispropoortionately im mpact people of color and the upports work produced ove er the past fivve years makking similar arrguments, forr poor. This research su example: http://ww ww.ejcc.org/w wp‐content/u uploads/2010//03/coc_execcsum.pdf A Climate e of Change: A African Americans, Global Warming, annd Just Climatte Policy for tthe U.S. (J. An ndrew Hoerner aand Nia Robin nson for Envirronmental Jusstice Climate Change Initiaative, 2009) http://envvsc.org/esc‐p publications/e everybodys‐m movement Everybodyy’s Movemen nt: Environmental Justice and Climate CChange (Angeela Park for Environmentaal Support C Center, 2009) Places mo ost impacted by climate ch hange Although I was unable to find “peop ple and place” specifics (annd it seems that this reseaarch is yet to be done), the ere is some in nformation on n how differe ent regions off the United SStates will be impacted by climate ch hange, as welll as some asssertions about which regioons will be mo ost impacted.. USGCRP h has put out a comprehensiive report on climate channge in the Uniited States, w which includess a section on n impacts by region. I’ve p pulled out the e highlights foor each region and have in ncluded them m as at the very e end of this secction. You caan click to the e website for each of the h highlights for more informaation. The link to o the full imp pacts section o of the report is: mpacts http://glo obalchange.go ov/publications/reports/sccientific‐assesssments/us‐im The Pew C Center on Glo obal Climate C Change’s “Regional Impactts of Climate Change,” preesents four caase studies off specific climate change im mpacts in diffferent regionss of the country. In brief, the case stud dies highlight h heat waves in n the Midwesst, increased ffires in the weest, impaired d wetlands in the Gulf Coasst, and hypoxxia in the Che esapeake Bayy. These impaacts overlap w with those ideentified in thee USGCRP rep port. http://ww ww.pewclimate.org/region nal_impacts/intro EPA’s “basic informatio on” on climatte change webpage ww.epa.gov/climatechangge/basicinfo.h html) states, ““In the United States, scieentists believee that (http://ww most areaas will to conttinue to warm m, although so ome will likel y warm moree than otherss. It remains vvery Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
difficult to o predict whicch parts of th he country will become weetter or drier, but scientistts generally exxpect increased precipitation n and evaporaation, and driier soil in the middle partss of the counttry. Northern regions su uch as Alaska are expected d to experiencce the most w warming. In faact, Alaska haas been experienccing significan nt changes in climate in reccent years th at may be at least partly related to hum man caused glo obal climate cchange.” EPA, in their climate ch hange commu unication matterials (http://ww ww.epa.gov/climatechangge/downloadss/Climate_Chhange_Societyy.pdf), uses N NOAA data to highlight ccoastal comm munities as be eing particularly vulnerablee: “The impaacts from clim mate change aare expected to be particuularly noticeable to peoplee who live, wo ork, th
and engagge in recreational activities along the co oast. Averagee global sea leevels rose during the 20 century and are expectted to continue to rise at aan increasingg rate. Tropicaal storms are projected to more intense as well. become m m surges beccause The U.S. EEast Coast and d Gulf Coast aare particularrly vulnerablee to sea level rise and storm the land iss relatively lo ow and also su ubsiding in many places. A Alaska is also aat risk, with eextreme chan nges in local se ea level rise caaused by a co ombination off geologic andd climate‐relaated factors.”” Other reasons for the ccoasts’ (particcularly in the Southeast) vvulnerability include susceptibility to changes o occurring in both land and sea and the ffact that coasstal regions are densely po opulated. Accordingg to the Interggovernmentaal Panel on Cliimate Changee’s fourth rep port (2007), 53% of the United States’ po opulation lived in counties bordering the ocean. The Naturre Conservancy’s Climate W Wizard Analyysis (http://bigg.assets.huffiingtonpost.co om/ClimateW WizardAnalysiss.pdf) indicattes that rural Midwestern states will face the gre eatest consequences of clim mate change because theyy will experience the mostt significantt rises in temperature, which will impacct capacity too produce agrriculturally. FFor example Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa will havve temperatures rise moree than 10 degrees Fahrenh heit there by 2 2100. The U.S. G Global Changge Research P Program repo ort highlights USGCRP h has put out a comprehensiive report on climate channge in the Uniited States, w which includess a section on n impacts, by region. Belo ow are the higghlighted imppacts of climaate change forr each region in the United States. Key issuess, by region: Alaska Over the p past 50 yearss, Alaska has w warmed at more than twicce the rate off the rest of th he United Staates. Its annuall average tem mperature hass increased 3..4°F, while wiinters have w warmed by 6.3 3°F. The higheer Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
temperatures are alreaady causing e earlier spring snowmelt, reeduced sea icee, widespread d glacier retreeat, and permafrost warming. Longer su ummers and h higher temperatures are caausing drier cconditions, evven in the abssence of stron ng trends in precipitation. Insect outtbreaks and w wildfires are increasing witth warming. Lakes are declining in aarea. Thawing p permafrost daamages roadss, runways, w water and sew wer systems, aand other inffrastructure. Coastal sttorms increasse risks to villaages and fishiing fleets. Displacem ment of marin ne species will affect key fisheries. Coasts Global seaa level has alrready risen du ue to the warrming‐induceed expansion of the oceanss, accelerated d melting of most of the world’s glaciiers, and loss of ice on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Seea level is currently rising at an increassed rate. A waarming climatte will cause further sea‐leevel rise overr this century and beyond. R Rising sea leve el is already e eroding shoreelines, drowniing wetlands,, and threaten ning usinesses, and infrastructu ure. The destructive potenntial of Atlanttic hurricaness has increaseed in homes, bu recent decades in asso ociation with iincreasing sea surface tem mperatures. Significant sea‐level risse and storm surge will advversely affectt coastal citiees and ecosysttems around the nation; low‐lying and ssubsiding areaas are most vvulnerable. More spriing runoff and d warmer coaastal waters w will increase tthe seasonal reduction in o oxygen resultting from exce ess nitrogen ffrom agricultu ure. Higher waater temperattures and oce ean acidification due to inccreasing atmo ospheric carb bon dioxide w will present m major addition nal stresses to o coral reefs, resulting in ssignificant diee‐offs and limited recoveryy. Changing ocean curren nts will affect coastal ecosyystems. Great Plaiins Over the llast few decades, average temperature es have risen tthroughout tthe Great Plaiins, with the largest inccreases occurrring in the w winter monthss and over thee northern staates. Relativeely cold days aare becomingg less frequen nt and relative ely hot days m more frequennt. Projected increases in temperature, evaporation n, and droughht frequency aadd to concerns about thee region’s d declining wate er resources. Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
Agriculturre, ranching, aand natural laands, alreadyy under pressuure due to an n increasinglyy limited wateer supply, arre very likely tto also be stressed by risin ng temperatuures. Climate ch hange is likelyy to affect native plant and d animal speccies by alterin ng key habitats such as thee wetland e ecosystems kn nown as prairrie potholes o or playa lakess. Ongoing sshifts in the re egion’s popullation from ru ural areas to urban centerrs will interactt with a changing climate, resulting in a vvariety of con nsequences. Islands Projection ns for the restt of this centu ury suggest co ontinued incrreases in air aand ocean surface temperatures in both tthe Pacific an nd Caribbean, an overall deecrease in rainfall in the Caaribbean, an increased frequency off heavy down npours nearlyy everywhere,, and increaseed rainfall during the summer months. H Hurricane win nd speeds and d rainfall rate es are likely too increase witth continued warming. Islaand coasts willl be at increaased risk of inundation due e to sea‐level rise and storrm surge with h major implicatio ons for coastaal communitie es, infrastructture, natural habitats, and d resources. The availaability of fresh hwater is likely to be reduced, with signnificant impliccations for islland commun nities, economie es, and resourrces. Island com mmunities, in nfrastructure, and ecosyste ems are vulneerable to coasstal inundatio on due to seaa‐level rise and coastal stormss. Climate ch hanges affectting coastal and marine eccosystems willl have major implications for tourism aand fisheries. Midwest Average temperaturess in the Midwest have risen n in recent deecades, with tthe largest in ncreases in wiinter. Heavy dow wnpours are now twice ass frequent as they were a ccentury ago. The Midwestt has experien nced two recorrd‐breaking floods in the p past 15 years. There has alsso been a deccrease in lakee ice, includin ng on the Great Lakes. Since the 1980s, laarge heat wavves have becoome more freequent than aanytime in thee last century, o other than the e Dust Bowl yyears of the 1 1930s. During the summer, pu ublic health aand quality of life, especial ly in cities, w will be negativvely affected b by increasingg heat waves,, reduced air quality, and increasing inssect and wateerborne diseaases. In the winter, warming w will have mixed impacts. The likely increase in p precipitation in winter and spring, moree heavy down npours, and greater evaporation in summe er would lead to more periods of both ffloods and waater deficits. Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
While the e longer growing season prrovides the po otential for inncreased crop p yields, increeases in heat waves, flo oods, droughtts, insects, an nd weeds will present increeasing challen nges to manaaging crops, livestock, and forests. Native spe ecies are veryy likely to face e increasing tthreats from rapidly changging climate cconditions, peests, diseases, and invasive species moving in from warmer regionns. Northeastt Northeastt annual average temperatture has incre eased by 2°F since 1970, w with winter teemperatures rising twice thiss much. Warm ming has resulted in many other climatee‐related changes includin ng more frequ uent very hot d days, a longerr growing season, an increase in heavy downpours, less winter prrecipitation faalling as snow aand more as rain, reduced snowpack, eaarlier break‐uup of winter icce on lakes and rivers, earrlier spring sno owmelt resultting in earlierr peak river flo ows, rising seea surface tem mperatures, aand rising seaa level. Extreme h heat and declining air quallity are likely to pose increeasing problem ms for human n health, especiallyy in urban are eas. Agriculturral production n, including d dairy, fruit, an nd maple syruup, are likely tto be adverseely affected as favorable climates shifft. Severe flo ooding due to o sea‐level rise e and heavy d downpours iss likely to occu ur more frequ uently. The projected reductio on in snow co over will adversely affect w winter recreattion and the industries thaat rely upon it. The cente er of lobster fisheries is pro ojected to continue its norrthward shift and the cod fishery on Georges B Bank is likely tto be diminished. Northwesst Annual avverage tempe erature over tthe Northwesst region as a whole rose aabout 1.5°F ovver the past century, w with some are eas experienccing increasess up to 4°F. Thhe region’s avverage tempeerature is projected to rise anoth her 3 to 10°F in this centurry, with higheer emissions sscenarios resu ulting in warm ming in the upp per end of thiis range. Incre eases in winte er precipitatioon and decreeases in summ mer precipitattion are projeccted by manyy climate mod dels, though tthese projectiions are less ccertain than tthose for temperature. Declining springtime sn nowpack lead ds to reduced d summer streeamflows, strraining waterr supplies. Increased d insect outbreaks, wildfire es, and changing species coomposition in n forests will pose challengges for ecosysstems and the e forest products industry. Copyyright 2010 Center C for Whole W Commuunities. All rig ghts reserved. 00 Bragg Hill Road, Faystton, Vermontt 05673 496 6-5690 www..wholecommunities.org 70
Salmon an nd other cold dwater specie es will experie ence addition al stresses ass a result of rising water temperatures and declining summe er streamflow ws. Sea‐level rise along vulnerable coasstlines will ressult in increassed erosion and the loss of land. Southeastt Southeastt annual average temperatture has risen n 2°F since 19970, with the greatest seassonal increase in the winter months. There has been a 30 percentt increase in ffall precipitation over mosst of the regio on but outh Florida. SSummer preccipitation has decreased ovver almost th he a decrease in fall precipitation in So ere drought in ncreased overr the past thrree decades. TThere has been an entire reggion and moderate to seve increase in heavy downpours. The p power of Atlaantic hurricannes has increaased since 197 70. Projected increases in air and water temperatures will cause heat‐related stresses for p people, plantts, and animaals. Decreased d water availaability is very likely to affect the region ’s economy aas well as its n natural system ms. Sea‐level rise and the likely increase e in hurricane e intensity an d associated storm surge will be among the most serio ous conseque ences of climaate change. Ecological thresholds aare likely to be crossed thrroughout the region, causiing major disrruptions to ecosystem ms and to the e benefits they provide to p people. Quality off life will be affected by inccreasing heatt stress, wate r scarcity, sevvere weatherr events, and reduced aavailability of insurance for at‐risk properties. Southwesst Recent waarming in the e Southwest h has been amo ong the most rapid in the n nation. This iss driving decliines in spring ssnowpack and d Colorado Riiver flow. Pro ojections of fuuture climate change indiccate continued strong waarming in the region, with much larger iincreases undder higher em missions scenaarios compared to lower. Pro ojected summ mertime temp perature incre eases are gre ater than thee annual average increasess in parts of th he region and d are likely to be exacerbatted by expan ding urban heat island efffects. Water sup pplies will beccome increassingly scarce, calling for traade‐offs among competingg uses, and potentially leading to cconflict. Increasingg temperature, drought, w wildfire, and in nvasive speci es will acceleerate transforrmation of thee landscape e.
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Increased d frequency an nd altered tim ming of floodiing will increaase risks to peeople, ecosysstems, and infrastruccture. Unique to ourism and re ecreation opp portunities are e likely to sufffer. Cities and d agriculture fface increasin ng risks from aa changing cliimate
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