Dragon Sourcing Your Tailored Approach to Emerging Markets
N10 Countries – An Overview
Dec, 2016 www.dragonsourcing.com
Table of Contents -
Executive Summary Overview
-
South Korea Indonesia Mexico Turkey Philippines Vietnam Bangladesh Egypt Pakistan Nigeria
Dragon Sourcing – India Disclaimer
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Why N-10 Countries? Where do I invest next? What are the other options?
Where do I source next? What are the other options?
Which countries have foundation in place for future growth over the coming years? International Investors
Which economies have grown significantly over the past few years?
N-10 Countries
Solution
Why N10 countries ?
Procurement Professionals
N10 countries are front runners of the new global economy due their growth trends Many of these countries have huge, young, and increasingly educated and wealthy populations, meaning their consumption potential is enormous and growing all the time. These countries are comparatively stabile politically and socially, plus they have relatively robust legal, financial and regulatory systems in place. Indeed, they display all the key characteristics that BRICs did a decade ago; characteristics which empowered the bloc’s phenomenal rise into a global economic superpower. And those who now invest sensibly in the N-10 countries could benefit as those who previously invested in the BRICs did.
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N10 Countries
Russia
Turkey
Egypt Mexico
Pakistan India
South Korea
China Bangladesh
Philippines Vietnam
Nigeria
Indonesia Brazil
BRIC Countries N10 Countries Š 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Executive Summary – N10 Countries Country
Total Exports in 2015 (USD billons)
South Korea
526.900
Indonesia
150.282
Mexico
380.749
Turkey
143.850
Philippines
58.648
Vietnam
186.842
Bangladesh
35.873
Egypt
21.967
Pakistan
22.089
Nigeria
53.805
Top Importers
China, USA, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan Japan, USA, China, Singapore, India USA, Canada, China, Brazil, Colombia Germany, UK, Iraq, Italy, USA Japan, USA, China, Hong Kong, Singapore USA, China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong USA, Germany, UK, France, Spain Italy, Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey, USA USA, China, Afghanistan, UK, Germany India, Netherlands, Spain, Brazil, France
Global GDP Country Population Macroeconomic Competitiveness (USD Rank (millions) Environment Index billions) N10 Countries
Labor Domestic Business market Market sophistication efficiency Size
5.0/7
26/138
50.6
1,376.9
6.6/7
4.1/7
5.3/7
4.9/7
4.5/7
41/138
255.5
859.0
5.5/7
3.8/7
5.7/7
4.3/7
4.4 /7
51/138
127.0
1,144.3
5.0/7
3.8/7
5.5/7
4.2/7
4.4/7
55/138
77.7
733.6
4.9/7
3.4/7
5.3/7
4.0/7
4.4/7
57/138
102.2
292.0
5.9/7
4.0/7
4.7/7
4.1/7
4.3/7
60/138
91.7
191.5
4.3/7
3.9/7
2.6/7
3.7/7
3.8/7
106/138
159.9
205.7
4.8/7
3.6/7
4.6/7
3.5/7
3.7/7
115/138
88.4
330.8
2.7/7
3.2/7
5.1/7
3.7/7
3.5/7
122/138
186.2
270.0
3.8/7
3.3/7
4.9/7
3.7/7
3.4/7
127/138
178.7
490.2
4.0/7
4.5/7
5.0/7
3.6/7
BRIC Countries China
2,281.855
India
264.381
Russia
343.907
Brazil
191.126
USA, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Germany USA, UAE, Hong Kong, China, UK Netherlands, China, Italy, Germany, Japan China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Germany
5.0/7
28/138
1,374.6
10,982.8
6.2/7
4.5/7
7.0/7
4.4/7
4.5/7
39/138
1,292.7
2,090.7
4.5/7
4.1/7
6.4/7
4.4/7
4.5/7
43/138
146.3
1,324.7
4.3/7
4.4/7
5.8/7
3.8/7
4.1/7
81/138
204.5
1,772.6
3.5/7
3.7/7
5.8/7
4.0/7
Note: The indicators were obtained from World Economic Forum, assessing the competitiveness landscape of 138 economies Š 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Interpreting Country Scores Macroeconomic Environment
Business sophistication
Calculated based on the cooperation in laboremployer relations, flexibility of wage determination, hiring and firing practices, redundancy costs, effect of taxation on incentives to work, pay and productivity, reliance on professional management, country capacity to attract and retain talent, female participation in the labor force.
The size of the domestic market is calculated as the natural log of the sum of the gross domestic product valued at PPP plus the total value (PPP estimates) of imports of goods and services, minus the total value (PPP estimates) of exports of goods and services.
This is calculated based on the local supplier quantity & quality, State of cluster development, Nature of competitive advantage, Value chain breadth, Control of international distribution, Production process sophistication, Extent of marketing, Willingness to delegate authority.
1=worst, 7=best
1=worst, 7=best
1=worst, 7=best
1=worst, 7=best
Among the 138 economies, High Score: 6.84 (Norway) Minimum Score: 2.00 (Yemen) Median Score: 5.33
Among the 138 economies, High Score: 5.95 (Switzerland) Minimum Score: 2.75 (Venezuela) Median Score: 3.96
Among the 138 economies, High Score: 7.00 (China) Minimum Score: 1.00 (Gambia) Median Score: 1.64
Among the 138 economies, High Score: 5.86 (Switzerland) Minimum Score: 2.80 (Mauritania) Median Score: 3.50
Data are then normalized on a 1–7 scale
Domestic Market Size
Calculated based on the government budget balance (% GDP), gross national savings (% GDP), inflation, government debt (% GDP) and country credit rating The stability of the macroeconomic environment is important for business and, therefore, is significant for the overall competitiveness of a country
Factors considered
Scale
Labor market efficiency
Source: World Economic Forum © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria
N10 Countries – An Overview
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South Korea
Population: 50.6 millions GDP: USD 1,376.9 billions
Economy Overview
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015 2.6
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
2.8
3.1
Total FDI in 2015: USD 5.042 billion EU, China, USA and Japan are the major investors Metallurgical and automobile sectors attracts more FDI Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 5.0/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 526.900 billion Major Import markets: China, USA, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan Trade Balance (2015): USD 90.353 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Vehicles other than railway or tramway
87
Industrial Machinery
84
Ships, boats and floating structures
89
Mineral Fuels
27
Macroeconomic environment Score
6.6/7
Optical, photographic, medical/ surgical instruments
90
Labor Market Efficiency Score
4.1/7
Plastics & Plastic Products
39
Domestic market size index
5.3/7
Iron and Steel
72
Organic Chemicals
29
Iron & steel products
73
Business Sophistication Score
4.0/7
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
US-Korea Free Trade Agreement (UKFTA)
European Union
EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement came into force completely on December, 2015
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Seoul
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, businesskorea.co.kr, dipp.nic.in © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Indonesia
Population: 255.5 millions GDP: USD 859 billions
Economy Overview
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%)
2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
4.8
5.1
5.3
In 2015, about 55% of the total FDI (USD 15.508 billion) was in Java region. Main invested sectors: Mining (16.4%), Food industry (11%), Transport, storage and communications (10.5%). Country Indicators
Score/ Value
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 150.282 billion Major Import markets: Japan, USA, China, Singapore and India Trade Balance (2015): USD 7.587 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Mineral Fuels
27
Animal or vegetable fats and oils
15
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Rubber & rubber articles
40
Precious Metals
71
Vehicles other than railway or tramway
87
Industrial Machinery
84
Footwear
64
Global Competitiveness Index Score
4.5/7
Macroeconomic environment Score
5.5/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.8/7
Domestic market size index
5.7/7
Wood & wood articles
44
Business Sophistication Score
4.3/7
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Agreement Arrangements
Country United States America
Indonesia is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Indonesia benefits from EU’s Standard GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences)
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Jakarta
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, oecd.org, adb.org, indonesia-investments.com, unctad.org, ustr.gov, trade.ec.europa.eu © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Mexico
Population: 127.0 millions GDP: USD 1,144.3 billions
Economy Overview
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%)
2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
2.5
2.5
2.8
About USD 30.284 billion was invested in Mexico in 2015, of which around 53% was by the US. Top sectors receiving FDI: Automobile, financial services, telecommunication. Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 4.4/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 380.749 billion Major Import markets: USA, Canada, China, Brazil and Colombia Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)14.482 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Vehicles other than railway or tramway
87
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Industrial Machinery
84
Mineral Fuels
27
Optical, photographic, medical/ surgical instruments
90
Furniture
94
Plastics & Plastic Products
39
Precious Metals
71
Macroeconomic environment Score
5.0/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.8/7
Domestic market size index
5.57
Iron & Steel Products
73
Business Sophistication Score
4.2/7
Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers
07
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
Trade agreement with the US: NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)
European Union
EU-Mexico Global Agreement. Negotiations to modernize their trade agreement began in June 2016.
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Mexico City
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, fas.org, ec.europa.eu, unctad.org, country.eiu.com, ampip.org.mx © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Turkey
Population: 77.7 millions GDP: USD 733.6 billions
Economy Overview
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%)
2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
4.0
3.5
3.5
Total FDI invested in 2015: USD 16.899 billion. The majority of FDI inflows to Turkey come from Europe, North America, and the Gulf countries. Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 4.4/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 143.850 billion Major Import markets: Germany, UK, Iraq, Italy and USA Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)63.356 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Vehicles other than railway or tramway
87
Industrial Machinery
84
Precious Metals
71
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Macroeconomic environment Score
4.9/7
Iron and Steel
72
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.4/7
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Domestic market size index
5.3/7
Iron & steel products
73
Business Sophistication Score
4.0/7
Plastics & Plastic Products
39
Mineral Fuels
27
Agreement Arrangements
Country United States America
Turkey is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Turkey is member of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership (Euromed)
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Ankara
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, oecd.org, ustr.gov, ec.europa.eu, invest.gov.tr, unctad.org, invest.gov.tr © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Philippines
Population: 102.2 millions GDP: USD 292 billions
Economy Overview
A
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
5.8
6.5
6.2
Total FDI in 2015: USD 5.724 billion Japan and the US are the major investors, while inflows are concentrated in the manufacturing and the finance industry. Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 4.4/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 58.648 billion Major Import markets: Japan, USA, China, Hong Kong, Singapore Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)11.505 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Industrial Machinery
84
Wood & wood articles
44
Optical, photographic, medical/ surgical instruments
90
Ores, slag and ash
26
Ships, boats and floating structures
89
Vehicles other than railway or tramway
87
Macroeconomic environment Score
5.9/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
4.0/7
Animal or vegetable fats & oils
15
Domestic market size index
4.7/7
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Business Sophistication Score
4.1/7
Copper and copper products
74
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
Philippines is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Benefits from EU’s Special Incentive Arrangement for Sustainable Development & Good Governance, ('GSP+')
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Manila
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, investphilippines.gov.ph, aseanbriefing.com © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Vietnam
Population: 91.7 millions GDP: USD 191.5 billions
Economy Overview
A
6.7
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015
Trade Statistics
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
6.1
6.3
Total FDI in 2015: USD 11.800 billion Major cities within Vietnam such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City attracts major investments. Attractive sector: Manufacturing Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 4.3/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2014): USD 150.217 billion Major Import markets: USA, China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong Trade Balance (2014): USD 2.378 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Footwear
64
Industrial Machinery
84
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Furniture
94
Fish and crustaceans
03
Mineral Fuel
27
Macroeconomic environment Score
4.3/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.9/7
Domestic market size index
2.6/7
Coffee, tea, maté and spices
09
Business Sophistication Score
3.7/7
Leather Products
42
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
US - Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement
European Union
Vietnam benefits from EU’s Standard GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences)
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Hanoi
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, ec.europa.eu, vietnam-briefing.com, business-in-asia.com © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Bangladesh
Population: 159.9 millions GDP: USD 205.7 billions
Economy Overview
A
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
6.5
6.3
6.8
Total FDI in 2015: USD 2.235 billion Textile and wearing and power, gas & petroleum sectors have received highest FDI.
Country Indicators
Score/ Value
Global Competitiveness Index Score
3.8/7
Macroeconomic environment Score
4.8/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.6/7
Domestic market size index
4.6/7
Business Sophistication Score
3.5/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 35.873 billion Major Import markets: USA, China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)3.872 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Made-up Textile Products
63
Footwear
64
Paper yarn, woven fabric
53
Fish and crustaceans
03
Raw hides and skin
41
Headgear
65
Leather Products
42
Tobacco
24
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement (TICFA)
European Union
Bangladesh benefits from EU’s special - Everything But Arms (EBA) trade arrangement.
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Dhaka
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, worldstopexports.com, bb.org.bd, beza.gov.bd © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Egypt
Population: 91.7 millions GDP: USD 191.5 billions
Economy Overview
A
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
4.2
3.3
4.2
Total FDI in 2015: USD 6.885 billion Oil sector attracts about 70% of the total FDI UK, USA and UAE are the major investors. Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score
Score/ Value 4.3/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 21.967 billion Major Import markets: Italy, Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey, USA Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)52.393 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Mineral Fuel
27
Electrical machinery and equipment
85
Edible fruit and nuts
08
Plastics & Plastic Products
39
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
Egypt is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Egypt is one of the partners of the EuroMediterranean Partnership (Euromed)
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Cairo
4.3/7
Edible vegetables, roots, tubers
07
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.9/7
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Domestic market size index
2.6/7
Precious Metals
71
Business Sophistication Score
3.7/7
Salt
25
Fertilizers
31
Macroeconomic environment Score
Country
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, ustr.gov, qizegypt.gov.eg, tpegypt.gov.eg © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Pakistan
Population: 186.2 millions GDP: USD 270 billions
Economy Overview
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%)
A
2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
4.2
4.5
4.8
FDI inflows to Pakistan increased by 31% to USD 1.7 billion as a result of rising Chinese FDI flows in services. Oil & Gas sector attracts more FDI Lately, USA and Saudi Arabia has been withdrawing its investments. Country Indicators
Score/ Value
Global Competitiveness Index Score
3.5/7
Macroeconomic environment Score
3.8/7
Labor Market Efficiency Score
3.3/7
Domestic market size index
4.9/7
Business Sophistication Score
3.7/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 22.089 billion Major Import markets: USA, China, Afghanistan, UK, Germany Trade Balance (2015): USD (-)21.900 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Cotton
52
Made-up Textile Products
63
Apparels & Products (Knitted/Non-Woven)
61
Apparels & Products (Not Knitted/Woven)
62
Cereals
10
Leather Products
42
Salt
25
Raw hides and skins
41
Edible fruit and nuts
08
Optical, photographic, medical/ surgical instruments
90
Country
Agreement Arrangements
United States America
Pakistan is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Benefits from EU’s Special Incentive Arrangement for Sustainable Development &Good Governance, ('GSP+')
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Islamabad
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, boi.gov.pk, ustr.gov © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Nigeria
Population: 178.7 millions GDP: USD 490.2 billions
Economy Overview
A
Trade Statistics
Annual GDP Growth (%) 2015
2016 (E)
2017 (E)
2.7
0.9
3.5
Total FDI in 2015: USD 3.064 billion Many programmes has been introduced to boost FDI, notably in agriculture, exploitation and mining, oil and gas extraction, and in the export sectors. Country Indicators Global Competitiveness Index Score Macroeconomic environment Score
Score/ Value 3.4/7
4.0/7
Trade Agreement
Total exports (2015): USD 53.805 billion Major Import markets: India, Netherlands, Spain, Brazil, France Trade Balance (2015): USD 13.163 billion Top Export Categories
HS code
Mineral Fuel
27
Cocoa & cocoa products
18
Wood & wood articles
44
Oil seeds
12
Raw hides and skin
41
Aircraft, spacecraft
88
Aluminium & aluminium products
76
Copper & copper products
74
Labor Market Efficiency Score
4.5/7
Ores, slag and ash
26
Domestic market size index
5.0/7
Fish and crustaceans
03
Business Sophistication Score
3.6/7
Agreement Arrangements
Country United States America
Nigeria is USA’s GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) ‐ Eligible Beneficiary
European Union
Nigeria benefits from EU’s Standard GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences)
Major Industrial Zone Locations
Abuja
Note: Score reading: 1-7 (best) Source: worldbank.org, unctad.org, trade.ec.europa.eu, allafrica.com, guardian.ng © 2016 Dragon Sourcing. All rights reserved.
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Our clients are medium to large size corporations across a wide range of industries Food & Beverage
Industrial Products
Construction
DIY Government
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Our clients are medium to large size corporations across a wide range of industries Retail
Automotive
Consumer Goods
Pharma / Medical
Heavy Machinery
Energy/Chemicals Service
Packaging
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We can cover global emerging markets through our owned offices and our network of procurement sub-contractors
Brussels
London Paris Porto
Graz
Novosibirsk
Riga Warsaw Prague Kiev Budapest
Rome Ljubljana Bucharest Madrid Milan Istanbul Tel Aviv
Houston
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Myanmar
Mumbai
Mexico City
Hong Kong Cambodia Bangkok
Manila Ho Chi Min City
Lagos Addis Ababa Nairobi
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Sao Paulo
Johannesburg
Santiago Buenos Aires
Melbourne
Buying offices Sales offices Geographies covered by DS network of procurement subcontractors
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Dragon Sourcing Contact Information EUROPEAN Offices Dragon Sourcing Paris 50 rue Marcel Dassault 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France Tel: +33 (0)1 46 10 36 70 Fax: +33 (0)1 46 10 41 14 Email: contact.europe@dragonsourcing.com Dragon Sourcing London Communications House, 26 York Street, London, W1U 6PZ, UK Tel: +44 (0)844 736 1432 Fax: +44 (0)844 736 1430 Email: contact.uk@dragonsourcing.com Dragon Sourcing Munich Georgenstrasse 81, 80798 Munich, Germany Tel: +49 (0)89 23 515 721 Email: contact.germany@dragonsourcing.com Dragon Sourcing Turkey Deluxia Palace, Barbaros Mh. Sümbül Sk. No: 5 A-Blok Ataşehir – Istanbul, Turkey Tel: +91 0554 754 51 07 Email: contact.turkey@dragonsourcing.com
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