A Strategy to Reduce Violence against Yazidis in Iraq

A Strategy to Reduce Violence against Yazidis in Iraq

By Nicholas Carmichael

About the Author Nicholas Carmichael is a third-year student in the College of Arts and Sciences double-majoring in Foreign Affairs and German studies and minoring in Public Policy and Leadership in the Batten school. His policy areas of interest include education, immigration, and criminal justice reform. He is currently conducting research with Professor White of UVA’s politics department, concerning strategies to reduce violence against Yazidis in Iraq. Travelling and cooking are two of Nicholas’s favorite things to do outside of school. He is also a member of the Sigma Pi Fraternity. In the future, Nicholas hopes to move into management consulting or policy analysis. He is considering law school after graduation.

Foreword At UVA, I teach a class on Religion, Violence, and Strategy: How to Stop Killing in the Name of God. Social hostilities and sectarian violence are rising worldwide, and many religious minorities perceive themselves under existential threat from their neighbors, and even from modernity itself. What can be done to interrupt cycles of religion-related violence?

The cases we examine are both challenging and horrific. Consider ongoing assaults against Coptic Christians in Egypt. Rohingya families fleeing Myanmar to survive. Armenians jailed unjustly in Turkey. So many suffer through no fault of their own and need a network of international allies to amplify their voices, to stand together for survival.

Each semester, I am fortunate to have access to sixty bright students and researchers, as well as experts and policymakers, working with my decision analytics company, Global Impact Strategies - giStrat. Nick Carmichael took my class to learn how to design and evaluate impact-driven strategies with potential to inhibit religion-related violence. Nick was assigned the case of Iraq, working with a small team to research the underlying causes and triggers

for conflict. He quickly recognized the risk for Yezidi genocide and grasped the need for increased government pressure and focus to engage members of the international coalition to defeat ISIS.

In our examination of game-changing strategies with social impact, we define Strategy as “the art and science of creating power for sustainable change in the face of conflict and uncertainty.” Strategy requires creativity and math. So, Nick was required to apply an advanced decision analytics platform - giCompute - to simulate the likely outcomes of his strategy to inhibit religion-related violence against Yezidis in Iraq. He has continued his research since completion of his paper to help save lives and heritage, advocating for protections, asylum, and reunification of Yezidi families.

Professor Jerry White Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics University of Virginia

Abstract This paper aims to bring attention to a specific, ongoing humanitarian crisis, and offers a strategy to counter it. The 2014 ISIS conquest of northwest Iraq resulted in a horrific genocide of the Yazidi people, a small religious minority that has been persecuted for centuries. Lacking a large number in population, the Yazidis are underrepresented in every aspect. With few stakeholders fighting for Yazidis, the international community must come together and offer a helping hand, or Yazidi populations will disperse, and eventually face possible extinction. The feasibility and success of my strategy is measured by the data analysis software ‘giCompute,’ created by Global Impact Strategies (giStrat), a start-up company in Washington D.C, founded by UVA professor Jerry White. The main focus of my strategy is reestablishing security in the Sinjar region of Iraq to allow for the reintegration and sustainable development of the Yazidi community in their ancestral holy land. This requires an immediate shift of the narrative surrounding ISIS’s 2014 actions in Sinjar in the international policy arena. The cooperation of key stakeholders, notably within the American, German, and Iraqi governments is of paramount importance to the successful implementation of my proposed strategy.

The Problem in Iraq

The Yazidis are a small, monotheistic, ethnoreligious minority group in Iraq that have been persecuted for centuries. In 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) swept through the Sinjar region, located in northern Iraq, committing a genocide on Yazidis. They murdered thousands of men and boys, and took several thousand more women and girls as sex slaves (Beck 2016 par. 6) . It is estimated that almost 70,000 Yazidis fled the Sinjar region—mainly to Germany— during this time ( Jalabi 2014) . Those who remained were trapped on Mount Sinjar with scarce resources and no place to return. Since the genocide in 2014, thousands of Yazidis have returned to the Sinjar region to find its infrastructure crumbled, unable to provide them with basic services such as clean water, electricity, and healthcare. The mayor of Sinjar, Fahad Hamid Omar, says that the lack of assistance stems from Yazidis being viewed as ‘fourth- or fifth-class citizens of Iraq’.

Currently, there are over 300,000 internally displaced Yazidis in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Without international protection and humanitarian efforts, the Yazidis will continue to be persecuted and face extinction. There is no easy way to resettle them. Although Germany has the largest Yazidi population outside of Iraq, Yazidis are better off returning home to Sinjar than having to resettle in the European nation. Especially since nationalism and right-wing sentiment have become more prevalent in recent years.

My strategy will identify and analyze key group stakeholder preferences, and form an international coalition similar to the Global Coalition to defeat Daesh (Global Coalition), formed in 2014 to counter ISIS. This strategy will consist of three steps. The first step will be shifting the narrative surrounding Iraq, and the fight against ISIS on an international level. Religious actors and policymakers must engage with civil society to create awareness of the Yazidi plight. The fight against ISIS must be framed as incomplete. The objective of this coalition will be widened to not only include a military defeat of ISIS, but also to develop a sustainable, human security oriented, political strategy. Key members of the Global Coalition must be held accountable for stabilizing and providing humanitarian aid in liberated areas. My strategy focuses on the United States, Germany, U.K, and Iraqi governments as the leaders of a new international coalition. The second step of my strategy is to increase accessibility to the Sinjar region. Doubling down

on demining efforts will increase security within Sinjar and allow NGO’s and key individual stakeholders to access the region, identify problems, and begin providing assistance. The third step of my strategy is the stabilization of Sinjar to allow for the sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructure. The strategy must include a peacekeeping plan that addresses underlying destabilization factors in Iraq, specifically disputed territory. Without this, Yazidis will be unable to return to their ancestral home of Sinjar.

Key Strategy Components International Coalition

Central to the fight against ISIS is the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, created in 2014 with five specific lines of effort to degrade ISIS: (1) Providing military support to partners, (2) impeding the flow of foreign fighters, (3) stopping financing and funding, (4) addressing humanitarian crisis in the region, and (5) exposing true nature. The four main nation states that will make up the new coalition outlined in this strategy are the United States, Germany, U.K, and Iraq. They will partner with international NGO’s who focus on providing humanitarian support specifically to Yazidis. During the fight against ISIS, the U.S, Germany, and the U.K combined, pledged over $1 billion to humanitarian aid in Iraq. Most of this aid flowed through the U.N Development Program (UNDP). More recently, the Trump administration has said that it will circumvent the UNDP, due to its delays and inefficiencies in providing aid. Instead, it will focus directly on providing aid to religious minorities in Iraq, including Yazidis. Germany is heavily incentivized to aid the Yazidis return to Sinjar, because of the ongoing refugee crisis, and the costs associated with it. This coalition will be key to stabilize and increase accessibility to Sinjar. This strategy will focus heavily on these stakeholders, as the U.S and Germany both carry veto power. It will work to mitigate two obstacles: the inefficient allocation of resources, and the narrative surrounding Iraq that ISIS has been defeated. Civil Society & Narrative

Civil society carries the responsibility of calling for action in Iraq. Key individual stakeholders in NGO’s are key to shifting the narrative surrounding Yazidis and Iraq. Nadia Murad, Yazidi human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize recipient, is a leading advocate for survivors of genocide and sexual violence. She also founded ‘Nadia’s Initiative,’ an organization that focuses

on further advancing her advocacy efforts. Frustrated with the lack of aid, as promised by world leaders, Murad established the Sinjar Action Fund (SAF), which directly advocates for the reconstruction of Sinjar. The SAF includes two categories of contributions: (1) commitments from nation states to allocate part of their funding for the reconstruction of Sinjar, and (2) funding from any individual or NGO. SAF will follow up on commitments, and report progress. This provides accountability for nation states who allocate funding to the issue to actually do so. One NGO, however, cannot create systemic change in Sinjar. It will take combined advocacy efforts of Nadia’s Initiative and other organizations, such as the Free Yezidi Foundation, to shift the international narrative surrounding Yazidis in Iraq. They must meet with individual stakeholders within the new coalition and create awareness surrounding the underlying problems in Sinjar. The Sinjar Region

The Sinjar region, specifically Mount Sinjar, is of holy importance to people of the Yazidi faith. It has long served as a stronghold for their people, and when ISIS attacked in 2014, many Yazidis retreated onto the mountain to find refuge. Efforts to liberate Sinjar from ISIS control were successful in 2015, but when Yazidis returned they found it nearly uninhabitable, due to its destroyed infrastructure. The Sinjar region has also long been disputed territory between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi central government in Baghdad. In order to stabilize the political tensions in Sinjar, this strategy will call on policymakers within our coalition to pressure both the KRG and Baghdad to reopen lines of direct communication and come to security and governance agreements regarding disputed internal boundaries, specifically Sinjar. These agreements must take into account human security perspectives and demands of the local community.

The Three-pronged Solution Shift the narrative

In order to reduce violence against Yazidis in Iraq, the narrative surrounding the issue must first be shifted. Currently, the fight against ISIS is mostly talked about as a military conflict. Shifting the narrative to frame the fight against ISIS as a humanitarian crisis, as well, will garner more international support. In order to achieve this shift, I will call on Nadia Murad to advocate within the U.S, German, and U.K government for immediate

action. Her organization, Nadia’s Initiative, is already well positioned to do so. Nadia’s Initiative has been instrumental in getting nations to recognize the Yazidi genocide, by meeting with world leaders and calling on them to issue public statements. I will task Murad specifically with pressuring Donald Trump to sign the Iraq and Syria Genocide Relief and Accountability Act of 2018, introduced to the President on November 29, 2018. This bill grants the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and the administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Mark Green, the power to identify the humanitarian, stabilization, and recovery needs of religious minorities, such as Yazidis, in Iraq. It also allows Mark Green to allocate USAID funding as he identifies is necessary. A key part of Nadia’s advocacy efforts will be setting up a private meeting between Nadia Murad and Mark Green to discuss the Yazidi problem in Sinjar. Murad will be able to give Green a firsthand account of the 2014 genocide. She is an expert on the subject of Yazidis and their needs in the Sinjar region. If this bill becomes law, it will be a signal to the global community that the U.S. acknowledges the problems faced by Yazidis in Iraq, and is ready to provide them with humanitarian, stabilization, and recovery assistance. Historically, the U.S has been on the forefront in the fight against ISIS mainly as a military power. By taking a humanitarian stance on the issue, the U.S will help shift the global narrative, using its bully pulpit, towards one focused on the humanitarian aspect of the ongoing fight against ISIS. Increase accessibility to the Sinjar region

Before the stabilization of Sinjar can begin, it must become more accessible. Although ISIS was dispelled from the region in 2015, remnants of their reign of terror remain in the form of landmines. Efforts to demine the region exist, but they must be increased to allow for higher accessibility into the region. My strategy calls on the U.S, Germany, and the U.K to fund NGO’s, such as the Mine Advisory Group (MAG), a British charity, in their efforts to demine the Sinjar region. The U.S. pledged an additional $17 million in July of this year towards demining efforts in the Nineveh region of Iraq, where Sinjar is located. Germany also supports the demining of Iraq, being the largest contributor to the United Nations Mine Action Services (UNMAS), contributing 44.2 million euros since 2014. This strategy is feasible since the members of the new coalition have already taken similar actions independently. This strategies success is contingent

upon the “building on shared interests,” or a formation of coalitions between populations. Landmines will be utilized as a “third side” between the new coalition, Iraq, and the Kurdish Regional Government. Since landmines kill indiscriminately, the physical and emotional damage they cause can be used to unify these stakeholders’ interests. Landmines are not just killing Yazidis; they are killing Iraqis. Framing the issue in this way will bolster support for demining efforts in the region.

To further increase accessibility, Iraqi and Kurdish officials must be politically pressured into easing up on the government checkpoints along the roads of Sinjar. Mark Green has already done this on his last trip to Iraq, where he met with Kurdish and Iraqi leaders. Green did so by promising them a portion of U.S reconstruction funds allocated to the region. The U.S is able to exert its influence on the region, because it has the most money and clout in the new coalition. Mark Green will be the main actor influencing Iraqi and Kurdish officials, since he already has a working relationship with them. Stabilize Sinjar to allow for reconstruction

The final step of this three-pronged solution is the stabilization of the Sinjar region in order to allow for the reconstruction of critical infrastructure. Disputed territory between Iraq’s central government and the autonomous KRG are a major underlying factor for Iraq destabilization. The Sinjar region specifically is heavily disputed. Because of this, the successful reconstruction of the Sinjar region requires Baghdad and KRG cooperation. Although ISIS was dispelled in 2015, the post-ISIS era has fundamentally changed dynamics on further decentralization and fragmentation in all of Iraq and in Sinjar in particular. Unaddressed, these factors will cause Sinjar to remain unstable, even after ISIS fully retreats, and will continue to act as an obstacle for social and physical reconstruction. In order to stabilize the region, my strategy will call on the German ambassador to Iraq, Dr. Cyril Nun, as a stakeholder to coordinate a meeting between the KRG prime minister, Nechirvan Barzani, and the Iraqi President, Barham Salih. The German Consul-General in Erbil, Barbara Wolf, will also be called into this meeting. This meeting will allow both parties to identify shared interests, and create a plan to achieve peaceful coexistence. Most importantly, this meeting will be successful, because before becoming the Iraqi President, Salih served as the Prime minister of the KRG for three years. Since Salih has prior knowledge

about the KRG’s primary interests and motivators, he will be able to lead a constructive conversation with Barzani, identifying areas where there is room for cooperation. Dr. Cyril Nun will encourage both Barzani and Salih to reopen direct lines of communications between Erbil, the KRG capitol, and Baghdad. It is important that German government officials undertake this portion of the strategy as Iraqis highly distrust the U.S government. The German government will continue to support Iraqi stabilization at the forefront of this strategy, providing political assistance to both Baghdad and Erbil. We want to build a positive working relationship between the two parties, so that security and governance agreements regarding disputed internal boundaries can be made. These agreements will take human security perspectives and local community demands into account. By stabilizing the Sinjar region, we open up pathways for NGO’s such as Nadia’s Initiative and the Free Yezidi Foundation to access Sinjar and begin providing humanitarian assistance, with funding from our new coalition.

Conclusion & giCompute analysis

Opponents of this strategy include Islam extremist groups, such as ISIS and corrupt government officials. However, gaming this strategy out on the giCompute software shows that there is a 72.5 percent chance that violence against Yazidis will either be reduced or slightly reduced. Figure 1.1 in the appendix proves this. GiCompute analyzes stakeholder preferences and influence to give predictions on scenario outcomes. This strategy will be effective, because all stakeholder’s preferences are aligned.

This strategy is S.M.A.R.T. It is sustainable, because it provides continuous humanitarian assistance to the Yazidis, while making Sinjar more accessible for future reconstruction efforts. It is also measurable, because we can gather data about how much foreign aid is being provided by the new coalition, and the Yazidi population in Sinjar. We can analyze the degree of success this strategy has, by doing a census on the Yazidi population right now, and another one in five years. If the Yazidi population has increased, as well as the amount of foreign aid allocated to the issue, then we know that this strategy was successful. This is also an achievable strategy. Many of the stakeholders incorporated have already made efforts to stabilize the Sinjar region. By bringing these stakeholders together to form the new coalition, this strategy allows for the sharing of information between parties vital for its

success. Because we have accounted for and aligned all of our stakeholder’s interests, this strategy can be viewed as realistic as well. GiCompute provides further evidence that it is realistic. This software has proven to be extremely accurate when predicting the outcomes of similar situations. In terms of timeliness, this strategy cannot be implemented overnight. However, since all of our stakeholders have already began working on this issue, we will be able to see considerable change within two years, and a significant reduction of violence against Yazidis within five years.

Appendix

Figure 1.1 – Overall Sensitivity

Figure 1.2 – Outcome Pathways

Figure 1.4 – Veto Influence Ranking

Figure 1.5 – Results by Stakeholder

Figure 1.7 - Cost of Friction for Outcomes

Figure 1.8 – Stated Positions of Stakeholder Groups

Figure 1.9 – Projected Outcomes for Stakeholder Groups (Cost and Benefits)

Figure 2.1 – Stated Position of Individual Stakeholders

Figure 2.2 – Projected Outcomes for Individual Stakeholders (Cost and Benefits)

Figure 2.4 – Degree of Convergence for Individual Stakeholders

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