Who can see the post-pandemic future?
Business planning — BLINDFOLDED Coverings’ CFCRA columnist Lee Senter in this issue notes the fact that it’s odd trying to write a column six or eight weeks out from the time it hits the street. I’d like to say you get accustomed to it, but after writing for magazines for over 40 years, you don’t. As of presstime, as the saying goes, the world remains on lock-down, although there are indications from several governments they are planning on easing restrictions. Some of those indications stem from countries that have had success already easing restrictions, and its common to see analysts refer to China, which country never had a stock-market crash and has never locked down the country entirely, while the epicenter and large economic generators in Wuhan, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing, are back up-and-running while the rest of the world hunkers down. So we wonder what the landscape will be as you read this, versus what we see as we compile. One thing that is becoming more evident as the lockdown progresses is that all the milk-of-humankindness stories in the press are not playing out on the streets. The police presence is reported to be evident and substantial, which we can confirm by having seen four patrol cars at once in a small village north of our office — a sight that is not only not normal, but unprecedented. In the area around our office, all the parks, trails, lakes and forests have been closed, with a single exception that may just be an oversight. Some people are having trouble reconciling a social-distancing rule 22
May/June May/June2020 2020
that requires six feet of space between people and groups of no more than five, on the one hand, with a rule that prohibits two guys fishing in a 17-foot boat five clicks from any other human. Why close a forest or trail? Businesses are having it worse than individuals, at least on the enforcement side. Lawyers are telling us that the rule prohibiting non-essential businesses is overbroad and vague. How is a garden centre, for example, not an essential business? If we are looking at an extended period of restriction, aren’t beans, corn, tomatoes and basil essential? Following consultation with counsel, one landscaping company in Ontario decided that maintenance is essential and went to work … and earned a $50,000 fine for its efforts. This cause another small-business owner to ruefully observe, “I never thought I’d see the day I could smoke grass legally and get arrested for cutting it.” On some level, people will gripe, no matter what, and the government must be able to ignore the slings and arrows and continue with what is necessary. On the other hand, people are saying the government is taking advantage of ambiguous grants of power and is becoming irrational, nonresponsive and arbitrary. We noted in the April issue of our monthly e-letter that small businesses are seeing little benefit from the promised largess of the government, and we observed that a tick cannot create a deer, so the funds to repay the outflows will come from businesses. If you don’t receive the e-letter, it’s free, it only comes once a month and we only send a commercial extra a maximum of twice a month. See our marketing feature this issue on page 6. I heard this (my time) morning from Parliament that we will see the $40,000 limit on interest-free loans lifted so companies can pay their employees now, then pay the banks back when the lump-sum, retroactive wage subsidy is distributed, likely in a month or so. My source also noted that many small businesses will go bankrupt before help arrives. We predicted a while back that there will be huge social costs associated with this plan to defeat the virus, to include problems with alcoholism, crimes associated with lower illegal narcotics supplies, domestic violence and mental issues associated with isolation. Some of those predictions, unfortunately, are coming true. The purpose of this feature is not to be a doom-sayer. It’s not our style. However, this is a business magazine, and you are business people and you are facing the task of making a plan with virtually no certainties left as cornerstones. Here are a few excerpts from the April newsletter, in case you are not a subscriber. We hope they may help fill out some questions and options. We regret that we have no answers. By the time you read this, I hope it’s all in the rear-view mirror. As one source yesterday told me he is telling his adult children: “Keep your eyes open. You are living history.” First, this is untrodden territory. Nobody knows what’s next. We see journalists on every news show demanding to know what date this will end, how many will die, what the
