253 Magazine November 2022

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NOVEMBER 2022 Local Real Estate Market Trends Plus... ThepowerofWindermere.ThepersonalizedserviceofWindermereChambersBay. Q3 2022 Western WA Gardner Report 3rd Quarter regional overview and a forecast for 4th Quarter A Taste of the Holidays Fall Edition Some of our favorites Gratitude What is gratitude? Why is it important? November Events What's happening in November Local Real Estate Stats

Gratitude

The secret to having it all is knowing you already do.

What

Why is it

A Taste of the

Some of our

November Events

What's happening in November

Q3 2022 Western WA Gardner Report

3rd Quarter

overview and a

regional
forecast for 4th Quarter
Holidays Fall Edition
favorites Gratitude
is gratitude?
important?
Local Real Estate Stats

American Samoa: fourth Thursday in November.

Canada: second Monday in October

Grenada: October 25.

Liberia: first Thursday in November.

Norfolk Island: last Wednesday in November

Northern Mariana Islands: fourth Thursday in November

Puerto Rico: fourth Thursday in November

Saint Lucia: first Monday in October.

Solomon Islands: December 26.

United States: fourth Thursday in November.

United States Virgin Islands: fourth Thursday in November.

Turks and Caicos Islands: fourth Friday in November.

Thanksgiving Day is an annual national holiday in the United States and Canada celebrating the harvest and other blessings of the past year. Variations of the holiday are celebrated in the Caribbean and elsewhere.

grat·i·tude

ɡradə

t(y)ood/

WHAT IS GRATITUDE?

From the time we are little, we are asked to thank others when they give us a gift or extend a nice gesture We learn to thank automatically and as a social rule But, how many times do we extend thanks for the little good things that happen to us daily? Do we really know how to be grateful? We have all heard or read many definitions of gratitude, but experiencing gratitude at its core requires a conscious effort. How many times do we say 'thank you' without taking a moment to actually feel thankful?

Gratitude is a conscious, positive emotion one can express when feeling thankful for something, whether tangible or intangible.

Gratitude implies much more than showing good manners. It’s a practice that requires acknowledging someone else's gesture towards us or the things that are going well in our lives. It involves both a process of recognition of the positive and its outcome.

noun
1. the quality of being thankful; readiness to show appreciation for and to return kindness.
ˌ

Why is gratitude important?

Regularly practicing and expressing gratitude has many benefits, both short and long term. Psychologists have highly researched gratitude and find it to be among the main focuses of positive psychology. Evidence suggests that people who consciously count their blessings tend to be happier and less depressed. But how?

Gratitude changes our brains

Research has found that people who tend to be more grateful have more brain activity in the medial prefrontal cortex, the area associated with learning and decision making. This brain activity persisted a month later, suggesting that gratitude has long-lasting effects.

Gratitude can overpower negative emotions

Feeling grateful boosts positive emotions like joy and compassion while encouraging us to look for and connect with what’s good in life. This helps us switch our attention from toxic emotions, such as resentment and envy.

Gratitude builds over time

A continued gratitude practice starts having long-lasting effects on mood and behavior, which can snowball over time.

Gratitude can help combat depression

A study showed that a single thoughtful appreciation leads to an immediate 10 percent increase in happiness and a 35 percent reduction in depressive symptoms. When it becomes a habit, it can help prevent anxiety and depression.

Is gratitude an emotion or a feeling?

We can feel, be, and act grateful. So the easy answer is that gratitude is both an emotion and a feeling. As with other emotions, gratitude can also become a trait When it describes someone who is always grateful, it becomes an adjective, which means that the person is often feeling and expressing this state.

As a state, gratitude is experienced as a complex emotion, which implies that it involves our thoughts of gratefulness. For instance, “What a nice gesture,” or “I am so lucky to have someone like you. ” And finally, emotion can also be experienced as a feeling Feelings tend to be a less complicated form of state. The big difference depends on the author, but a way of seeing it would be as a less intense and more momentary state.

At times, our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person. Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us.

Every fall I make this, and it is always a crowd pleaser. My husband copied the recipe from his sister when he was a teenager, and we still have the recipe card.

ATASTEOF THEHOLIDAYS

FALL EDITION

NANCY'S CARAMEL CORN

Pop 15 Cups of Popping Corn and place it on a cookie sheet in a degree oven while you are cooking the syrup.

1 Cup of Brown Sugar

1 Cube of Butter

¼ Cup of White Karo Syrup

½ Tsp Salt

Combine above ingredients over medium high heat until it starts to bubble around the edge. Continue to boil stirring continuously for 5 minutes, then remove from the heat and add;

½ Tsp of Vanilla & ½ Tsp of Baking Soda and stir quickly.

It will foam and expand.

Pour over your 15 Cups of popped corn and mix it in as good

Place in 200 degree oven and stir every 20 minutes for 1 hou Store in an air tight container.

THUMBRINT COOKIES

1/2 cup butter, softened

1/4 cup packed brown sugar

1 egg

It's always been a holiday tradition in my family to make thumbprint cookies. Always rolled in walnuts and has to be filled with raspberry jam. You'll always catch me at the dessert table regardless of what time of the day it is Let's be honest, dessert is best with coffee, before dinner, and after dinner There should be no rules when it comes to eating dessert."

1/2 tsp vanilla extract

1 cup all purpose flour

1/4 cup finely chopped walnuts

2/3 cup raspberry jam

1/4 tsp salt

Preheat oven to 350*F. Grease Cookie Sheets

Separatee egg, reserving egg white. Cream butter, sugar, and egg yolk. Add vanilla, flour, and salt, mixing well.

Shape dough into balls. Roll in egg white, then walnuts. Place on cookie sheets about 2 inches apart. Bake for 5 minutes.

Remove cookies from the oven. With thumb, dent each cookie and put jelly in each thumbprint. Bake for another 8 minutes.

I love a good homemade cranberry sauce. I like the freshness and tartness against all the other really rich foods that are generally served. This is the recipe from Once Upon a Chef that I make every year.

Ashley Pullen

CRANBERRY SAUCE

1 (12oz) bag fresh cranberries

1/2 cup fresh orange juice

1/2 cup water

12 tsp orange zest

Pinch of salt

3/4 cup sugar (more or less depending on how tart or sweet you like it.

In medium sauce pan over high heat, bring the orange juice, water, and sugar to a boil.

Add the cranberries, orange zest, and salt, and return to a boil

Reduce the heat to medium and boil gently for 10 - 12 minutes until most of the cranberries have burst open

Transfer sauce to a serving bowl. Cover and chill until ready to serve. Can be made the day before.

HOMEMADE PUMPKIN BUTTER

1/2 cup butter

1 cup brown sugar

2 cups pure maple syrup

1 tsp pure vanilla

1 can pure pumpkin

1 tbls heaping pumpkin pie spice

2 tbls heaping apple pie spice

Melt butter in skillet (large enough for all ingredients)

Add brown sugar

Once it comes to a light rolling boil, cook for 2 1/2 minutes, stirring constantly.

Remove from heat

Add apple pie spice and pumpkin spice. Stir until fully mixed,

Add pure vanilla, mix fully

Add pumpkin, mix fully.

Place in container and refrigerate for 24 hours.

Carmen Ruby

I’m always looking for recipes that bring the flavors of the season into my kitchen. I recently tried this recipe and it was delicious Tastes like fall -Elsa Borgen

ROAST PORK LOIN WITH APPLES

12 tbls vegetable oil

1 (2 pound) boneless center cut pork loin, trimmed and tied

Kosher salt and freshly ground black pepper

1 medium onion, thickly sliced

2 carrots, thickly sliced

2 stalks celery, thickly, sliced

3 cloves garlic, smashed

Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F.

3 sprigs fresh thyme

3 sprigs fresh rosemary

4 tbls cold unsalted butter

2 apples, cored and cut into 8 slices

2 tbls apple cider vinegar

1 cup apple cider

2 tbls whole grain mustard

In a large ovenproof skillet heat the vegetable oil over high heat. Season the pork loin all over generously with salt and pepper. Sear the meat until golden brown on all sides, about 2 to 3 minutes per side.

Transfer the meat to a plate and set it aside.

Add the onion, carrot, celery, garlic, herb sprigs, and 2 tablespoons of the butter to the skillet. Stir until the vegetables are browned, about 8 minutes. Stir in the sliced apples, then push the mixture to the sides and set the pork loin in the middle of the skillet along with any collected juices on the plate. Transfer the skillet to the oven and roast the loin until an instant read thermometer inserted into the center of the meat registers 140 to 150 degrees F, about 30 to 35 minutes. (See Cook's Note.)

Transfer the pork to a cutting board and cover it loosely with foil while you make the sauce. Arrange the apples and vegetables on a serving platter and set aside. Remove and discard the herb sprigs. Return the skillet to a high heat and add the vinegar scraping the bottom with a wooden spoon to loosen up any browned bits. Reduce by half then add the cider and reduce by about half again. Pull the skillet from the heat and whisk in the mustard, and the remaining 2 tablespoons of cold butter. Adjust the seasoning with salt and pepper, to taste.

Remove the strings from the roast and slice into 1/2-inch thick pieces and arrange over the apple mixture. Drizzle some sauce over meat and serve the rest on the side.

by Food Network Kitchen

y y g information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The Western Washington labor market continues to expand. The addition of 110,000 jobs over the past 12 months represents an impressive increase of 4.9%. All but seven counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses. In total, the region has recovered all the jobs lost and has added an additional 30,000 new positions.

The regional unemployment rate in August was 3.8%. This is .2% higher than at the end of the second quarter. That said, county data is not seasonally adjusted, which is likely the reason for the modest increase.

The labor force has not expanded at its normal pace, which is starting to impact job growth. Although the likelihood of a recession starting at some point this winter has risen, I am not overly concerned at this point; however, I anticipate businesses may start to taper hiring if they feel demand for their goods and services is softening.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 19,455 homes traded hands, representing a drop of 29.2% from the same period a year ago. Sales were 15.4% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Listing activity continues to increase, with the average number of homes for sale up 103% from a year ago and 61% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Year over year, sales fell across the board, but when compared to second quarter they were higher in Mason, Cowlitz, Jefferson, and Clallam counties.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:6. This ratio has been dropping for the past three quarters and indicates a market moving back toward balance. The only question is whether it will overshoot and turn into a buyer’s market.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Higher financing costs and more choice in the market continue to impact home prices. Although prices rose an average of 3.6% compared to a year ago, they were down 9.9% from the prior quarter. The current average sale price of a home in Western Washington is $748,569.

❱ The change in list prices is a good leading indicator and we have seen a change in the market. All but two counties (Island and Jefferson) saw median list prices either static or lower than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Prices rose in all but two counties, and several counties saw price growth well above their long term averages.

❱ With the number of homes for sale rising and list prices starting to pull back, it’s not surprising to see price growth falter. We are going through a reversion following the overstimulated market of 2020 and 2021. There will be some ugly numbers in terms of sales and prices as we move through this period of adjustment, but the pain will be temporary.

Mortgage Rates

This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market go through a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.

As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher, but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to slowly pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 5.62% figure in Q3 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 6.7% in Q4 2022, 6.55% in Q1 2023, 6.35% in Q2 2023, 6.15% in Q3 2023, and 5.60% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 24 days for a home to sell in the third quarter of the year. This was seven more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and eight days more than in the second quarter.

❱ King and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 19 days to sell.

❱ Only one county (San Juan) saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. San Juan was also the only county to see market time drop between the second and third quarters of this year.

❱ The greatest increase in market time compared to a year ago was in Grays Harbor, where it took an average of 13 more days for homes to sell. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, Thurston County saw average market time rise the most (from 9 to 20 days).

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Listings are up, sales are down, and a shift toward buyers has started. After a decade of sellers dominating the market, it is far too early to say that the shift is enough to turn the market in favor of buyers, but the pendulum has started to swing in their direction. A belief that the housing market is on its way to collapsing will keep some buyers sidelined, while others may be waiting for mortgage rates to settle down.

Whatever their reasons, I maintain that we will see a brief period where annual price growth will turn negative in several markets, but it is only because the market is normalizing. I certainly don’t see any systemic risk of home values falling like they did in the mid to late 2000s.

Number of Closed Sales this Month 1056 Down 23% compared to last month Median SOLD Price 505,000 Up 1% over Oct 2021 Down 3% from Sept 2022 Days on Market 19 Down 1 day compared to last month Windermere Chambers Bay October 2022

Months

Buying to Selling in this Market

Market knowledge matters. The market is slowing and prices are dropping. Buyers remain cautious but active. Sellers still want to sell and buyers still want to buy. Compromise is key. Who you work with matters.
of Pending Inventory 2.1 Down slightly from last month New Listings in Pierce County 1203 Down 23 % compared to last month

M U C H L I K E P E O P L E , E V E R Y M A R K E T I S U N I Q U E . S O M E M A R K E T S H A V E V I E W S , S O M E L A R G E Y A R D S F R O M H O M E S B U I L T A T T H E T U R N O F T H E C E N T U R Y T O N E W C O N S T R U C T I O N , E A C H A R E A H A S I T S O W N F E A T U R E S A N D T Y P E S O F H O M E S .

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