Times are tough, but we’ll be OK

Pessimism hits a new high, but most independents still see positives to cling to in the coming year

The proportion of independents who say they are very optimistic about the year ahead has halved since last year. At just 12%, it’s the lowest figure we have recorded in the history of the survey.

It follows that pessimism has hit record levels, as the graph below illustrates.

With the gloomy economic outlook, war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of Covid disruption all conspiring to complicate life for small businesses, it’s no surprise that merchants are expressing these sentiments.

But looking at the figures another way, just over half of respondents remain upbeat about their prospects in the coming 12 months, compared to just 15% who are pessimistic. About a third are somewhere in the middle.

As the chart opposite reveals, almost four in 10 indies say sales are higher than a year ago, with a roughly similar proportion saying sales are lower.

“We are expecting to see retail sales decline over the next 12 months as the cost-of-living crisis, combined with our increased costs, makes it a very tough trading time. We hope to counter this with increased online and delivered sales driven by investment in online and social media advertising, along with increasing our wholesale operation in the local area.”

Tom Jones, The Whalley Wine Shop, Lancashire

“The next 12 months will be tough, with rising costs and customers being careful about their spending. We are in a recession and this will get worse as the year progresses. Also many indie retailers have had to stop importing due to Brexit and rising costs of shipping and we’re no longer able to claim VAT back on duty for imports.”

Abbi Moreno, Flora Fine Wines, west London

How optimistic are you about sales growth this year?

“It will be a hard year. Choosing the right wines at the right price is going to be crucial.”

David Smith, Portland Wine Cellars, Southport

“It will be another challenging year ahead and year-on-year growth will be tough to achieve. A year to consolidate and steer through the choppy waters to hopefully blue skies towards the end of the year.”

Mark Wrigglesworth, The Good Wine Shop, west London

“Our market is polarising massively. At Christmas we saw a boom in areas such as regional France and South Africa that offered better value at the lower end of the market. On the other hand, we have never sold as many bottles in the £100+ category and that seems to see no sign of slowing down. People seem to be upgrading or downgrading, with the middle ground taking the hit.”

Rupert Pritchett, Taurus Wines, Surrey Hills

“I suspect the coming year will be challenging. There’s still the shadow of looming duty tiers which will drastically increase the price points of many of our wines. I think our customers will remain loyal but perhaps be a little more selective about their wine budget and consumption.”

Nichola Roe, Wine Therapy, Isle of Wight

“In recent years, external factors have had a huge impact on sales and margins, both positively and negatively. Forecasting sales has become a bit moot. Keeping on top of costs and having some workforce flexibility have become more important.”

Based on 215 responses

Liam Plowman, Wild & Lees, south London

You can still get the wines you want –if you plan ahead, argue some merchants

How are your sales compared to a year ago?

“We’ve just opened a new wine shop in Tunbridge Wells, so despite what we see as a very poor economic outlook, having a big new shop our turnover had better increase!”

Paul Adams, Paul Adams Fine Wines, East Sussex

“Sales will increase for two main reasons. The RRP of the product has increased, thus the net figure for the same number of bottles will increase. But, more importantly, the thirst for eclectic wines in retail is on the up. I think the drop-off will be in generic styles of wine which the multiple sector majors on, but outside the box the market is buoyant..”

John Chapman, The Oxford Wine Company

Based on 194 responses

“We have to believe that we can continue to grow as a business. I have no doubt that it’ll be a difficult year but we are a year more experienced than we were this time last year.”

Charlie Jones, Native Vine, Bristol

“After a terrible 2022, 2023 has to be better!”

Ed Perfect, Grape & Grain, Haywards Heath

“The challenges we have faced since the pandemic have made our business much healthier in the long term. Our processes have been refined and made as efficient as possible. These efficiencies will pay dividends as we look to grow our online business further.”

Tom Hemmingway, Highbury Vintners, north London

“Several indies opened their doors around the time of the last recession as two of the big national chains disappeared. They have weathered many a storm and those that are located in places that suit other indie businesses as well may prove to be as resilient during the current climate. I’m fairly optimistic for retail growth in 2023 as long as fixed costs can be kept under control.”

Paul Auty, Ake & Humphris, Harrogate

“Instead of dining out, we’re hoping people might compromise, eat at home and be more inclined to buy a quality bottle or two of wine from us.”

Tim Gardner, Gardner & Beedle, Tisbury, Wiltshire

“We will be using the various wine promotions such as New Zealand wine week, Rioja month, Riesling month etc to help the sales of these regions/countries. We’re still not getting full footfall back but our tasting events have been well supported and it’s good to see new faces.”

Hampshire merchant

“2022 was an amazing year for us and exceeded our expectations in all areas of the business. Despite the gloomy outlook portrayed in the media etc, I am confident we can continue to grow.”

Bob McDonald, Salut Wines, Manchester