RICHO PAUL RICHARDS
@richowp
THE JURY’S OUT ...
Connections of Beltoro in celebration mode after the horse broke through for an overdue city win at Flemington. REG RYAN/RACING PHOTOS.
Smart punting — it’s a matter of timing Richo takes a late look at the early (and late) movers ... When having a bet, when is the best time to place it to make sure you get the best price? It’s a question that has been discussed regularly through the Winning Post letters page. Regular contributor Pittsburgh Phil insists betting early is for mugs, for a variety of reasons. On this page last week I mentioned that I, too, believe that it is better to wait, but I also added, “If you’re taking fixed odds, it might be worth monitoring if you’re getting the best price betting early.” Well, having suggested you should monitor it, I thought it would probably make sense if I did as well. So, I had a look at the betting patterns from last Saturday’s meetings at Flemington and Rosehill to see if we should be betting early or waiting.
THE BACKGROUND I’ll start by giving a quick rundown of the whole early-betting process. Acceptances for the Saturday metro meetings are generally taken on Wednesday morning. The TAB are usually first with putting up fixed odds markets. They tend to start with Sydney, followed closely by the rest. If you are keen enough, you can have a bet for the upcoming Saturday as early as midday on Wednesday. Here at Winning Post, we send our pages to the printers by 1pm on Thursday. The prices we display are those that are available from our main advertiser, Bet365. The prices across all providers are usually within a dollar of each other.
THE EARLY MAIL On Friday morning, the TAB sends out an email to members of the racing media detailing the early movers in the betting markets. I’m among those on the distribution list. A few horses jumped out as having firmed in the period between markets opening and our paper going to press. This is how those who had been the subjects of significant early betting got on ...
PAINLESS WIN Patrick Payne’s promising three-yearold stayer Dunkel was backed at $2.40 to win the second race at Flemington and was in to $2 on page five of last week’s Winning Post. He won easily and paid $1.90, so the early punters were on the mark there.
CLOSE BUT NO VALUE In race five, Peter Moody’s Forbidden City had supporters at $3.80, backing her into $3 when we put her price in the paper. She came in a touch more on race day, starting at $2.80 but could only manage third.
HISTORY DIDN’T REPEAT In the Standish Handicap, a few punters liked the Wednesday afternoon price of $12 for Halvorsen to win the race for a third time. He had saluted in 2020 and again 2022. He was listed at $9.50 for those perusing the field in Winning Post. He started at $6.50 chance, with deductions of 16% following the scratchings of Indian Pacific, Regardsmaree and Parsifal. However, he only beat one home.
He started a $3.10 joint favourite with Victory Bay. The slight overs were worthless as British Columbia could only finish third.
SOLID SUPPORT FOR CITY At Rosehill, five horses were well supported in the time between first markets and Winning Post being finalised. The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace two-year-old first starter Steel City was the subject of bets of $2,000 at $2.80, $1,000 at 2.60) and $2,500 at 2.50). By lunchtime Thursday he was into $2.40. At 12.20pm on Saturday the bookmaker’s offer was $2.30. Alas, Red Resistance proved too slick for Steel City.
GREAT ‘SHOPPING’ There was a better result for those who backed Nathan Doyle’s Dalaalaat, including the punter who had $300
LUCKLESS In the open sprint, a few punters warmed to the prospect of James Cummings’s Spacewalk winning at his first run following a gelding operation. Bets of $2,000, $1,365, $800 and $500 were taken early as he firmed from $3.70 on Wednesday to $2.80 on Thursday. He ended up starting at $2.40 but he found trouble in the straight and finished third.
NOT THIS TIME One of the biggest Wednesday movers was Peter and Paul Snowden’s import Touristic. The TAB took a bet of $4,000 on him to win at odds of $17 and another of $1,000 at $14. He was at $7 when we went to press. By Friday morning when the email arrived, he was a $4.60 shot. He came in to $4.40 prior to the race but the plunge went astray. Touristic only battled to the line in fourth placing. He looks a horse that will relish rising from 2000m to 2400m next start. You’re not likely to get $17, though.
WEATHER WATCH
BACKING FOR BAY In the seventh race, Arran Bay’s early quote was $13 and he was in to $9.50 by Thursday afternoon. Anyone who grabbed that early price would have had it reduced by 12% following the withdrawals of Pounding and Saint of Katowice, so it would have been worth $11.44. It was still reasonable shopping as his official starting price was $8.50. He finished second. If you had backed him each way your return of $2.86 was better than the $2.40 he paid on Saturday.
COLUMBIA CONQUERED According to the TAB’s weekly email, someone had $1000 on British Columbia at $5.00 in the final race and another $600 was put on at $4.60. Hardly massive amounts but those bets assisted in him coming into $3.80 a day later.
each way on him at $16 the win and $4.60 the place soon after markets opened. He ended up winning and paying $3.70 fixed and $3.90 on the tote. Unfortunately, there were hefty deductions here as six came out and brought the price down on those who took the early odds by 33%. However, a $6,180 collect reduced by 33% to $4,140.60 is still significantly better than having $300 each way on at $3.90 the win and $1.60 the place ($1,650.00).
Dalaalaat gets the cash at Rosehill. Early shoppers did well.
Among the perceived perils of betting early is the fact that track conditions can change dramatically. The perfect example was last Saturday’s Magic Millions meeting at the Gold Coast. Everyone did the form for a dry surface but the unexpected rain turned it into a heavy 10 that was deemed unsafe for racing early in the big program. The meeting was rescheduled to Thursday afternoon — while Winning Post was being printed. Just for fun, check out how the following horses went. They had been well supported in the days leading up to the postponed meeting. Grandslam ($19 to $13), Scallopini ($3.30 to $2.30), King of Sparta ($2.30 to $1.80), Skirt The Law ($14 to $4.60), Oscar Zulu ($8 to $3.60) and Alpine Edge ($4.20 to $2.30). All of the above bets were refunded, so those who thought they had grabbed nice odds were denied a potential nice return.
If you backed a winner at Flemington or Rosehill last Saturday, did you get the best price if you bet late? Or would you have been better off getting on earlier? For the sake of this exercise, I’ll use the TAB’s prices. The first winner at Flemington, Veecee, was $4 in early markets but got out to $4.80. Those who took the short odds in the second on Dunkel ($2.40) got a nice little bonus as he won at $1.85. Princess Rhaenys found her best with the help of a great ride. Those who found her and left their betting until late got $8.90 on the tote. She was $9.50 on Thursday but that was reduced by 12% or $1.14 after scratchings. You would have been better off waiting. Spirit Ridge claimed the fourth. This race fell away dramatically with the withdrawal of the $2.50 favourite. If you had backed Spirit Ridge at the early quote of $5 it would have been reduced by 32%. Your ticket would have been worth $3.40. He started at $3.20 so a win for the early shoppers. Belle Et Riche was $4.20 early in the week before finding enough to score and pay $2.70. Standish winner Snapper was $8 early on. He paid $5 fixed. The deductions on the early price due to scratchings were 16%. Your early ticket would have been worth $6.72 so you were in front on the deal. If you thought Beltoro was ready to win his first race since March last year, you should have waited until race day to place your bet. He bolted in and paid $7.50 fixed on the TAB. He was at that quote on Thursday but that was before a scratching (10% deduction). There was little “action” around Brian McGrath’s consistent sprinter D’jumbuck in the lead-up to him winning the eighth race. He was $6 a couple of days before and paid the same on the day. Betting early on the final event came with a risk. It was a field with four emergencies, so there was always going to be some deductions. However, if you took a punt and thought Shove Over’s quote of $13 was value, you were rewarded. He paid $8.50 fixed. The deductions on the eventual eight scratchings only amounted to 10%. So, if you had bet early, you would have collected at odds of $11.70, a nice little finish to your afternoon of punting at Flemington. At Rosehill, if you had decided to wait until the final five minutes before placing your bet you would have got the best odds on five of the 10 winners — Kalino (paid $3.30 and was $3 early), Trooper Knuckle ($10 instead of $6), Ringmaster ($6 to $5.50), Mariamia ($8.50 to $6) and Kir Royale ($5.10, better than the $5.50 after deductions). There was good value for early shoppers with the wins of Hokkaido ($23 before 15% of raceday scratching reductions got him to an $11.50 starting price), the previously mentioned Dalaalaat ($16 to $3.90) and Irish Legend ($12 less 10% deductions but started $9.50). The remaining two winners were the well fancied and supported Red Resistance ($6 to $3.60) and Banju ($6 to $4.40). So after all that, five of the nine winners at Flemington were a better price if you got on early. At Rosehill it was half and half (five of 10). It’s a small sample size but there is some evidence to suggest if you see a good price early, grab it. On the other hand, there are enough examples to encourage patience.
RACING.COM | WINNING POST, SATURDAY JANUARY 21 2023 | PAGE 9
