WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 Q4 2014 GENESEE & SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality
Labor Market and Demand Summary
GEOGRAPHY
WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on Genesee and Shiawassee counties.
Data Notes and Sources
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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
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TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND October-December 2014 GENESEE
Continuing high demand for Heavy And Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers makes this occupation the top poster from Q4 2014 with 386 postings in Genesee County, more than twice the demand of the 2nd most in-demand job, Retail Salespersons. The next three top jobs are customer service-related followed by postings for health care professionals. This is the first quarter in many where Registered Nurses are not among the top five jobs in this county.
October-December 2014 SHIAWASSEE
Similar to other counties in the WIN region, Heavy And Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers top the demand lists in Q4 2014 (106 postings in Shiawassee County). Postings for truck drivers are more than twice the 2nd most-posted jobs, Physical Therapists. Registered Nurses are often also at the top of the list, however in Q4 2014 demand for RNs dropped to 6th place. Because Shiawassee is one of the smallest counties analyzed by WIN, postings fluctuate more and do not tend to have business-cyclerelated trends.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND October - December 2014
The labor force in Genesee and Shiawassee counties has been slowly declining, overall, since early 2008. Between Q3 and Q4 2014, 1,125 individuals left the labor force in this two-county region (a 0.5% drop). Employment, on the other hand has been slowly creeping upward with a strong increase in early 2014. In Q4 2014, 2,889 more individuals were employed than in Q3, a 1.4% increase. 2014 annual employment is 3,000 individuals higher than in 2013. The unemployment rate in the two-county region has dropped for another quarter running, from 7.7% in Q3 2014 to 5.9% in Q4. This 1.8 percentage point drop is due primarily to job gains and only in part to a declining labor force. Job growth outpaced the drop in labor force from Q3 to Q4 2014.
The falling unemployment in Genesee and Shiawassee counties over the past year has been primarily due to employment increases. With the unemployment rate at 5.9% it is below that of the WIN region (7.0%). Postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties have been on a downturn for over a year. This is partly due to job gains, with employers finding talent and not posting as frequently. However, there are still 4,398 postings in this two county region. Postings remained stagnant between Q3 and Q4 2014, growing marginally from 4,390 to 4,398. This stagnation comes after a considerable drop from 6,517 in Q3 of 2013. Postings in this region tend to increase in Q1. Next quarters posting data will likely follow this trend.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
GENESEE & SHIAWASSEE DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS GENESEE
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trades and technician group are for First-Line Supervisors Of Production And Operating Workers (18 postings). This occupation has remained a top job for several quarters. The next most prevalent postings are for Production Workers, All Other (16 postings), and Testers, Sorters, Samplers, And Weighers (13 postings). Interestingly, postings for Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal And Plastic were not at the top of list in Q4 2014. This occupation is typically the top poster for skilled trades in many counties in the WIN region.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS SHIAWASSEE
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS The most postings for skilled trades and technicians are for First-Line Supervisors Of Production And Operating Workers and Welders, Cutters, and Welder-Fitters, both with 2 postings each. All other online job ads in Shiawassee County in skilled trades have a single job posting.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Postings in this two-county region have fallen for another quarter, from 134 in Q3 2014 to 116 in Q4. Postings were hovering around an average of about 160, but the trend-line is dropping. This drop could be due to increased hiring, which will be confirmed with 2015 employment data. Skilled trade and technician postings represent 2.6% of total GeneseeShiawassee online job postings.
This year, 4,655 individuals were employed in advanced manufacturing skilled trade positions in Genesee and Shiawassee counties. This is a slight drop from 2013 (4,813 employed), but still over 1,000 individuals higher than employment in 2009 at the peak of the recession. Another 2,500 jobs must be added in order for this two-county area to reach post-recession employment from 2005 (7,131 employed. 2015 data will clarify if this two-county area can expect to see additional job growth.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES GENESEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES SHIAWASSEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS GENESEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 10 JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS SHIAWASSEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS GENESEE
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. The top engineer and designer postings in Genesee County are for Civil Engineers with 25 postings. Industrial Engineers are second on the list with 18 postings, a shift from the top job position held last quarter. Postings in this cluster are not consistent from quarter to quarter, nor do overall numbers follow a trend, indicating that employer demand for certain occupations fluctuates depending on that particular business’ internal cycles.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS SHIAWASSEE
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS There is very low demand for engineers and designers in Shiawassee County with a total of 3 postings this quarter. There is equal need for a civil, environmental, and robotics engineer. Because this county does not have a large engineering presence, the demand is sporadic and comes only as the few employers who employ engineers need to fill a position.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
While postings for engineer and designer postings are sporadic in this two-county region, there was an increase from Q3 to Q4 2014 driven by employers in Genesee County. Postings have fluctuated each quarter and have reached a high in Q4 2014 with 114 postings. The next peaks close to this are 111 in Q1 2014 and 118 in Q4 2012. Engineer and designer postings represent 2.6%, of total online job postings in the two-county region, up from 1.5% in Q3 2014.
Engineering and design employment in Genesee and Shiawassee counties has been fairly flat since the recession. With 1,084 employees there has been growth of about 120 jobs since the employment trough in 2009 (the height of the recession). Occupational employment was previously as high as 1,763 in 2005 pre-recession. From 2005-2009 employment for engineers and designers steadily declined and has not recovered.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES GENESEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES SHIAWASSEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS GENESEE
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS SHIAWASSEE
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY GENESEE
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. ma While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.
Computer User Support Specialists (30 postings), is the most in-demand IT job in Genesee County. Next most in-demand are Software Developers, Applications (24 postings). Software developers are the top IT job in nearly every other WIN region county. This is the first time in several quarters that this occupation has fallen from the most in-demand in Genesee.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SHIAWASSEE
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IT demand dropped slightly in Shiawassee County in Q4 2014 with a decline from 17 postings in Q3 to 12 in Q4. Software Developers, Applications are the most in-demand job in the county with seven postings. This follows the trend of other WIN region counties. Computer User Support Specialists are next most in-demand with three postings.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT is not one of the Genesee-Shiawassee area’s most prevalent occupation groups with 3.1% of the region’s total postings. However, this is higher than early 2014 when it represented only 1.5% of postings (Q2 2014). IT postings have been falling steadily since a peak in Q3 2013. Posting levels are now half of what they were during this peak.
Employment in IT occupations is growing in Genesee and Shiawassee counties. The largest trough in employment in this cluster did not occur in 2009 at the height of the recession as it did in other occupational groups. Employment only fell by about 10% during the recession years. The lowest employment levels were experienced in 2012 (2,323 employees), and in 2014, employment is up again to 2,402. Employment has fluctuated in the past decade with an overall downward trend, however these two counties have experienced modest growth in the past two years.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES GENESEE
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES SHIAWASSEE
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS GENESEE
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS SHIAWASSEE
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HEALTH CARE GENESEE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. Registered Nurses are the most in-demand health care job in Genesee County with 91 postings in Q4 2014. Genesee employers follow the rest of the WIN region where RNs are the most in-demand health care job. Physical Therapists are next most in-demand with 68 postings in the same time period.
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HEALTH CARE SHIAWASSEE
HEALTH CARE Similar to other occupation groups, Shiawassee employers do not often follow the same posting trends as other counties. In Shiawassee County in Q4 2014, demand for Physical Therapists topped the charts with 43 postings. Next most in-demand are Registered Nurses with 22 postings.
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Health care postings in the two-county area increased between Q3 and Q4 2014, growing from 614 postings to 642. Unlike most other clusters, postings have not steadily declined since the Q3 2013 peak. Instead, health care in Genesee and Shiawassee counties remained higher than typical levels. Health care occupation online postings represent 14.6% of all online job postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties. This cluster is likely growing in occupational demand in this two county area.
Health care employment dropped in 2014 in Genesee and Shiawassee counties (20,691 employees down from 21,335 in 2013). Employment in this cluster seemed unaffected by the recession as no drop in employment occurredinstead, ̀ employment has steadily increased over the past decade and only recently stagnated and dropped in the past three years.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES GENESEE
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES SHIAWASSEE
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS GENESEE
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS SHIAWASSEE
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY GENESEE
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region. The top retail and hospitality job in Genesee County is Retail Salespersons with 165 postings in Q4 2014. The next most in-demand job in this cluster is Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (116 postings). This occupation is growing in the ranks of in-demand fields. It has long been part of the top jobs list, but is now growing across the region as one of the most needed by employers.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY SHIAWASSEE
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY Like the majority of WIN region counties, Retail Salespersons is the most in-demand job in Shiawassee County in Q4 2014 (35 postings). Also in high demand are Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (23 postings) and Customer Service Representatives (21 postings). Aside from retail sales, most postings in Shiawassee County do not follow regional trends.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupational cluster groups analyzed by WIN. However, demand is on the decline. Falling by nearly 50% since Q3 2013 (from 1,960 postings in Q3 2013 to 1,076 in Q4 2014), postings in this cluster are moving down toward their early post-recession levels. This cluster is often responsive to any economic shift and continuously dropping postings could signal lower discretionary spending in the region. As the largest cluster analyzed by WIN, retail and hospitality postings represented 24.5% of all online job postings in the two county area in Q4 2014.
Employment in retail and hospitality occupations is on the rise with 48,234 employees in 2014 (up from 46,153 experienced during the 2010 trough). While employment has not yet reached the 2006 pre-recession peak of 51,068, the trend is positive and employment is growing.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES GENESEE
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES SHIAWASSEE
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS GENESEE
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS SHIAWASSEE
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
The labor force in Genesee and Shiawassee counties has been slowly declining, overall, since early 2008. Between Q3 and Q4 2014, 1,125 individuals left the labor force in this twocounty region (a 0.5% drop). Employment, on the other hand has been slowly creeping upward with a strong increase in early 2014. In Q4 2014, 2,889 more individuals were employed than in Q3, a 1.4% increase. 2014 annual employment is 3,000 individuals higher than in 2013. The unemployment rate in the two-county region has dropped for another quarter running, from 7.7% in Q3 2014 to 5.9% in Q4. The falling unemployment in Genesee and Shiawassee counties over the past year has been primarily because of employment increases. With the unemployment rate at 5.9% it is below that of the WIN region (7.0%). Postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties have been on a downturn for over a year. This is partly due to job gains, employers are finding talent and not posting as frequently. However, there are still 4,398 postings in this two county region. 47.4% of online job postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties are from one of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN.
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH