WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 HILLSDALE COUNTY Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
GEOGRAPHY
Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Hillsdale County.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
2
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND October-December 2014
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is the top posting occupation with 18 postings this quarter in Hillsdale County. Other top jobs include First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (16 postings) and Retail Salespersons (13 postings). These three occupations also topped the list last quarter. Employers of truck drivers are experiencing a shortage of qualified workers, which helps explain the increase in postings for this occupation.
3
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND October-December 2014
The labor force in Hillsdale County decreased between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014. There are 258 fewer individuals in the labor force in this county (1.3% decline) than in 2013. The current monthly trend in the labor force shows a decline, potentially due to the end of the agricultural season, but the annual trend still exhibits growth. Labor force changes in Hillsdale follow the agriculture business cycle rather than that of retail, therefore labor force values tend to peak in Q2 and Q3 and drop off in Q1 and Q4 when the harvest season ends. With the changing industrial make-up of the county, however, agriculture is becoming a less significant source of employment. Employment differed from the labor force this quarter, increasing by 72 jobs (0.4%). This slight increase is similar to the upward trend in employment over the last year. Furthermore, this is the highest employment number for Q4 since 2008 for Hillsdale County. If the trend continues, employment should continue to grow in 2015 and surpass pre-recession levels.
The unemployment rate shifted down 1.6 percentage points in Hillsdale County from Q3 to Q4 2014 (7.3% to 5.7%). The labor force decreasing at a faster rate than employment increasing during the last two quarters has played a role in the overall declining unemployment rates. While the low unemployment rate is good news for the county, it is more important that the labor force and employment numbers return to a positive trend throughout 2015. During Q4 2014, Hillsdale County maintained higher than usual postings with a total of 318 online job ads from employers in the region, an increase from 316 in Q3. Postings had fallen in early 2014 but now look to be on a strong upward trend. This marks the first time in recent history where postings increased from Q3 to Q4. With generally increasing postings in the county, the WIN research team believes that Hillsdale employers need talent and they are starting to use online posting as a method to attract workers. 4
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
5
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
HILLSDALE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
6
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. Computer Controlled Machine Tool Operators (Metal and Plastics) are the top posting occupation in Hillsdale County for the second consecutive quarter (7 postings). The other top posting is Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers (5 postings). Demand is not dominated by a specific occupation—as exhibited by online job postings—with few postings per occupation.
7
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Skilled trades and technician postings have increased slightly this quarter from 27 postings in Q3 to 29 in Q4. This differs from the downward trend seen between other quarters in 2014. . Skilled trade jobs are not traditionally posted online but are often filled through unions, hiring halls, or word of mouth. The trend is shifting though, with more and more employers turning to online postings to find qualified workers. 9.1% of online job ads in Hillsdale County are for skilled trade and technician positions.
Employment in the skilled trades is growing rapidly in Hillsdale County. With 1,559 employees in 2014, employment in this cluster has nearly reached the pre-recession level of 1,575 in 2005. Strong employment growth coupled with steady posting behavior indicates that employers are finding the talent they need and continue to need more.
8
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
9
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
10
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS obs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers designers, which represent 10,508 employed ̀ individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Demand for engineers and designers is relatively low in Hillsdale County. Electrical Engineers is the top posting this quarter with three online job ads. Industrial Engineers and Manufacturing Engineers each had two postings.
11
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Engineer and designer postings in Hillsdale County are up two postings over the four year low of eight postings reached in Q3 2014. Engineer and designer postings represent 3.1% of all online job postings in Hillsdale County.
While postings are low, employment is growing in this field. In 2014 employment in engineering and design occupations has reached the pre-recession level from 2005 with 335 employees. Falling postings are a signal that employers have found the talent they need because employment has grown so quickly. Since the 2009 recession trough employment in engineering and design jobs in Hillsdale County has nearly doubled.
12
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
13
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
14
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is uickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was ̀ 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Demand for IT workers in Hillsdale County (according to online job postings) is quite low with a total of seven postings. The top posting position in Q4 2014 was for Computer Information Scientists and Technologists with two postings. All other IT occupations posted in the county had one posting each, including Software Developers of Applications, which is typically the highest demand position in this occupation group across the WIN region.
15
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings increased by just one posting over Q3 2014, up to seven total postings. IT job postings represent 2.2% of total postings in Hillsdale County, one of smallest occupational groups studied by WIN.
Employment in IT occupations in Hillsdale County is low with 145 employees this year. Employment is lower than the pre-recession peak in 2006 (169 employees), but has grown since the 2010 trough (136 employees). The trend is positive and IT employment should continue to grow slowly.
16
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
17
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
18
HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing; more health care workers are needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. The top posting health care occupation for Q4 2014 in Hillsdale County was Physical Therapists with 10 postings. Other top postings include Registered Nurses (5 postings) and Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (4 postings). Not having Registered Nurses as the top posting occupation in this cluster is unusual compared to the rest of the WIN region where demand for RNs is nearly double that of any other health care occupation.
19
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Health care does not represent a large number of postings in Hillsdale County compared to the average share in the rest of the region. However, postings did increase from 21 in Q3 to 30 in Q4. Over the last few years, postings for this occupation group have fluctuated between 20 and 30 per quarter. Health care occupations represent 9.4% of all job postings in Hillsdale County for Q4 2014.
Employment in health care occupations in Hillsdale County has fallen steadily since a 2007 pre-recession peak of 1,112 employees. Health care employment represents about 6% of total employment in Hillsdale County. 1,047 individuals were employed in health care positions in 2014 in the county.
20
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES
21
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
22
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9. The top posting job this quarter for retail and hospitality was First-Line Supervisor of Retail Sales Workers with 16 postings. Other top posting occupations include Retail Salespersons (13 postings) and Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (12 postings). These three occupations have maintained the top three positions since Q1 2014.
23
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality online postings have grown at a tremendous rate during 2014— nearly tripling between since Q4 2013. While retail and hospitality posting behavior is often due to turn-over in staff, it is unusual for growth in postings to occur from Q3 to Q4 as it has in 2014. This could be a positive sign indicating that there will be job growth for this cluster in the county. Retail and hospitality postings represent 33.3% of all postings making this cluster by far the largest posting cluster in Hillsdale County.
Employment in retail and hospitality jobs steadily fell from a pre-recession peak in 2006 (3,735 employees) to a 2012 trough of 3,045. Since 2012 though, employment has grown to 3,152 postings this year, tracking the growth seen in postings. Nearly 18% of Hillsdale County’s workers are employed in retail and hospitality jobs, making this is an important occupation group to watch.
24
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
25
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
26
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9. Online job postings for agriculture related occupations are few in Hillsdale County with 12 online ads for Q4 2014. Throughout 2014 there was not a trend or an occupation that posted consistently. The top posting occupation in Q4 2014 was Butchers and Meat Cutters with 6 postings—half of all online job ads for this cluster. This sudden increase in demand for this occupation could correlate with hunting season occurring during Q4.
27
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Online postings for agriculture jobs have doubled from 6 to 12 postings since Q4 2013. Hillsdale County is home to quite a bit of agriculture activity, but many of the farms are small and family-operated. This upward trend of postings could indicate that employers are broadening their search for workers. Agriculture represents 3.8% of total postings in Hillsdale County.
Employment in agriculture in Hillsdale County has steadily fallen over the past decade. There was not a significant drop related to the recession, but instead a nearly linear, slow decline. In 2014 employment is 856, while in 2005 there were 1,200 employees in these jobs. This cluster, while an important one for Hillsdale County, is clearly not maintaining strong employment. Many agriculture operations in the county are family run and owned and often agriculture is not a primary occupation for some workers.
28
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS WAGES
29
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
30
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
The labor force in Hillsdale County decreased between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014. There are 258 fewer individuals in the labor force in this county (1.3% decline) than in Q3 2014. The current monthly trend in the labor force shows a decline, potentially due to the end of the agricultural season, but the annual trend still exhibits growth. Employment differed from the labor force this quarter, increasing by 72 jobs (0.4%). This slight increase is similar to the upward trend in employment over the last year. Furthermore, this is the highest employment number for Q4 since 2008 for Hillsdale County. If the trend continues, employment should continue to grow in 2015 above pre-recession levels. The unemployment rate shifted down 1.6 percentage points in Hillsdale County from Q3 to Q4 2014 (7.3% to 5.7%). The labor force decreasing at a faster rate than employment increasing during the last two quarters has played a role in the overall declining unemployment rates. While the low unemployment rate is good news for the county, it is more important that the labor force and employment numbers return to a positive trend throughout 2015. During Q4 2014, Hillsdale County maintained higher than usual postings with a total of 318 online job ads from employers in the region, a small increase from 316 in Q3. Postings had fallen in early 2014 but now look to be on a strong upward trend. This marks the first time in recent history where postings increased from Q3 to Q4. With generally increasing postings in the county, the WIN research team believes that Hillsdale employers need talent and they are starting to use online posting as a method to attract workers. 60.9% of all online job postings in Hillsdale County are from one of the six occupation clusters analyzed by WIN.
31
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment that what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
32
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH