WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 JACKSON COUNTY 路 Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
GEOGRAPHY
Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Jackson County.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND October-December 2014
The top posting occupations in Jackson County have consistently included many of the same occupations for over a year running. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and Retail Salespersons have rotated among the top 5 spots every quarter since early 2013. Each of these jobs has high levels of posting for different reasons. Retail sales jobs are often high turnover and therefore must post frequently in order to keep a certain level of employment. Truck drivers are experiencing great need at the moment and employers are scrambling to get the talent they need to fill these high demand jobs.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND October-December 2014
The labor force in Jackson County has been on a slow decline for several years with a period of relative stagnation in recent quarters and even moderately positive growth. In Q1 2014, the labor force flattened and it was expected to continue with little growth or increase slightly. One quarter later in Q2 2014, the labor force experienced more growth than expected. In Q3 2014, the labor force remained stagnant, but Q4 declined with a loss of 1,157 individuals (1.6%). While there were quarterly shifts, the annual number of individuals in the labor force in 2013 and 2014 did not change (70,648). Similar to the labor force, employment in the county declined by a marginal amount this quarter, shrinking by 45 employed workers (0.1%) from Q3 2014 to Q4. While employment dropped, levels this quarter are still higher than levels not seen since pre-recession 2009.
The unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points from 7.0% (Q3 2014) to 5.5 % (Q4 2014). Unemployment is currently sitting at a much lower rate than it was in 2010 (12.7%). This quarter the decline in unemployment is due to a falling labor force rather than more workers in jobs. The annual drop from 8.8% (2013 average) to 7.2% (2014 average) can be attributable to jobs gained. Despite this quarter’s negative shift, 2014 was a positive year for Jackson County. During Q3 2014, Jackson County employers posted a total of 1,744 online job ads, continuing three consecutive quarters with declining posting levels. Jackson County seems to experience fluctuation in online job postings. After a trough in Q4 2012 and a peak in Q3 2013, postings have leveled and stagnated through much of 2014. Stagnant postings could mean that employers have found the right posting level to ensure a stable workforce. This would not be surprising given the labor force growth from 2013 to 2014. The fourth quarter typically yields the lowest number of postings, which could be positive signal that postings will grow in Q1 2015. 4
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
JACKSON COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trade and technician group are for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (8 postings), Production Workers, All Other (8 postings), and Welders, Cutters, and Welder Fitters (6 postings). The two top jobs account for 27.1% of all skilled trades and technicians postings in Jackson County this quarter.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Skilled trades and technicians postings have increased marginally by five postings since last quarter, but are continuing on a downward path with a generally negative slope. Skilled trades and technician postings represent 3.4% of total Jackson County online job postings.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County skilled trades and technicians positions has remained steady with only two additional jobs added since 2013— moving from 1,768 (2013) to 1,770 (2014-annualized). The pace of adding new skilled trades jobs has been consistently increasing at a very slow rate over the past four years, which has not allowed this industry to recover to pre-recession employment levels, when 2,390 jobs existed.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Civil Engineers represent 25.3% of all engineering and design job postings in Q4 2014 with 25 postings. Other top jobs include Electrical Engineers (22 postings), and Mechanical Engineers (15 postings). These postings together represent 62.6% of all postings in this occupation group.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Engineer and designer postings in Jackson County have risen this quarter but remain close to average levels from much of 2013 and 2014. Postings in the current quarter have moved from 74 postings in Q2 to 99. While postings increased, another quarter of data is needed to know whether or not this is a positive trend. Engineer and designer postings represent 5.7% of total online job postings in Jackson County.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County engineering and designer positions has grown since the previous year, but the rate of growth has decreased compared to previous years. Thirty jobs have been added since 2013, moving from 1,721 (2013) to 1,751 (2014). Unlike many other occupational groups, current employment levels surpass pre-recession levels, even though this group did experience the trough in 2009 and 2010.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. A third of all IT postings in Jackson County are for Computer Systems Analysts (36 postings). This occupation has been near the top of IT postings for several years running. Other top postings include Computer User Support Specialists (16 postings), and Business Intelligence Analysts (10 postings).
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIM(
IT postings in Jackson County have declined this quarter from 135 in Q3 to 102, dipping close to 2012. Postings for IT occupations are on a third consecutive quarter of decline but the trend is expected to change as Q1 postings are frequently higher than Q4. IT postings make up 5.8% of total postings in Jackson County.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County information technology positions has declined since the previous year but remains above employment levels seen from 2005-2012. Fourteen jobs have been lost since 2013, moving from 883 (2013) to 869 (2014). Employment has not been consistently growing, but leaps up every few years. If that trend continues, 2015 data should show a significant increase in employment.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. 19.5% of health care job postings in Jackson County are for Registered Nurses (31 postings). This occupation has been the top online poster for several years running. Other top postings in the county include those for Physical Therapists (17 postings), and Licensed Practical And Licensed Vocational Nurses (14 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME $1' (03/2<0(17
Similar to other occupation groups, health care postings dropped from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014, moving from 208 in Q3 2014 to 159 in Q4 2014. Postings are below the trend line of around 250 postings set in the past few years, and are lower than Q4 2013 one year ago. The current data confirms downward movement which has been seen in the past few quarters. Health care occupation online postings represent 9.1% of all online job postings in Jackson County.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County health care positions has declined since the previous year but remains well above pre-recession employment levels . Seventy-five jobs have been lost since 2013, moving from 6,754 (2013) to 6,679 (2014). Unlike many other occupational groups, health care did not experience a trough in 2009 and 2010, but grew significantly those years instead. A big jump occurred between 2010 and 2011, and is potentially stabilizing now around the 6,700 level.
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HEALTH CARE TOP -2BS WAGES
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9. Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupations groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in this area include Retail Salespersons (80 postings), Customer Service Representatives (38 postings), and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (36 postings).
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME $1' (03/2<0(17
Retail and hospitality online postings declined from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014. With a decline from 482 to 382 postings, this occupation group is consistent with other occupational clusters. Postings in this quarter remain high but much of the posting behavior is due to churn and turn-over in staff in these positions, not significant job growth. Retail & hospitality postings represent 21.9% of all online job postings in Jackson County, the most common posting occupation group in the county.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County retail and hospitality positions has increased since the previous year at similar levels seen throughout the past four years. Employment levels have not yet reached pre-2008 levels. Eightytwo jobs have been gained since 2013, moving from 15,358 (2013) to 15,440 (2014).
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9. Agriculture postings represent the smallest share of the occupations groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in this area include Recreation Workers (6 postings), Environmental Engineers (4 postings) and Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including Health (3 postings).
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AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME $1' (03/2<0(17
Agriculture online postings decreased from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014 by 11 postings. Postings in this quarter are quite low but this may be due to the seasonal nature of agriculture jobs. Agriculture postings represent 1.6% of all online job postings in Jackson County.
The number of individuals employed in Jackson County agriculture positions has decreased since the previous year and is back to 2010 and 2006 levels. Seventy jobs have been lost since 2013, moving from 2,365 (2013) to 2,295 (2014). Employment growth and decline in this sector has not been following a trend, with many peaks and troughs since data collection began.
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AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS WAGES
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AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
The labor force in Jackson County has been on a slow decline for several years with a period of relative stagnation in recent quarters and even some positive growth. In Q3 2014, the labor force remained stagnant, but Q4 declined with a loss of 1,157 individuals (1.6%). While there were quarterly shifts, the annual number of individuals in the labor force in 2013 and 2014 did not change (70,648). Similar to the labor force, employment in the county declined by a marginal amount this quarter, shrinking by 45 employed workers (0.1%) from Q3 2014 to Q4. While employment dropped, levels this quarter are still higher than levels not seen since pre-recession 2009. The unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points from 7.0% (Q3 2014) to 5.5 % (Q4 2014). This quarter the decline in unemployment is due to a falling labor force rather than more workers in jobs. But, the annual drop from 8.8% (2013 average) to 7.2% (2014 average) can be attributable to jobs gained. Despite this quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s negative shift, 2014 was a positive year for Jackson County. During Q3 2014, Jackson County employers posted a total of 1,744 online job ads, continuing three consecutive quarters with moderately declining posting levels. Stagnant postings could mean that employers have found the right posting level to ensure a stable workforce. This would not be surprising given the labor force growth from 2013 to 2014. The fourth quarter typically yields the lowest number of postings, which could be a positive signal that postings will grow in Q1 2015. 47.5% of online job postings in the Jackson County are from one of the six occupation groups analyzed by WIN. The top posting occupations in Jackson County have consistently included many of the same occupations for over a year running. Retail salespersons and Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers have rotated among the top 5 spots every quarter since early 2013. 31
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment that what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH