WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 LENAWEE COUNTY 路 Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
GEOGRAPHY
Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Lenawee County
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers dominate online job postings for Lenawee County, nearly quadrupling the next top posted job in Q4 2014. This has been the top posted occupation for the county in each quarter of 2014, and the number of postings increase each quarter. A similar trend has occurred across the WIN region, wherein employers are experiencing shortages in the workforce and are continually posting in search of qualified workers. Other top jobs include Retail Salespersons, Registered Nurses and Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food. These occupations are consistently in the top five for Lenawee County. 3
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
Labor force participation in Lenawee County has been somewhat stagnant since 2012. There was, however, a slight increase this quarter. Participation increased by 357 individuals or 0.8%. Q4 marks the first time in 2014 that the labor force number reached greater than 45,000. Employment in the county increased by 1,129 workers during Q4, a 2.7% increase over Q3. In addition, employment continues its upward trend over the last 18 months and reached a number not seen since Q4 2008. This continued employment growth comes at a time when the labor force is relatively stagnant, meaning that any unemployment change can be attributed to people obtaining or leaving jobs.
This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 1.8 percentage points, decreasing the overall unemployment percentage in Lenawee County from 7.1% in Q3 2014 to 5.3% in Q4. The WIN region average is 6.5% for Q4. This is the lowest unemployment rate in Lenawee County according to WIN’s data which date back to 2003. Because employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force, the decrease in the unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs. Online job postings for Lenawee County have grown tremendously since its lowest point in Q4 2012 (268 postings). Postings for Q4 2014 only decreased by 11 postings compared to Q3. Furthermore, this is the second consecutive quarter where the total number of job ads posted online for Lenawee County reached over 1,000. Next quarter will be indicative of whether the annual upward trend will continue or if postings have saturated around 1,000. 4
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
LENAWEE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. no The top posting occupation for skilled trades and technicians are Welders, Cutters, and Welder Fitters with 8 online ads. The next most prevalent posting occupation is for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (6 postings). These two occupations switched spots as the top two from Q3 and represent nearly half of all postings for this cluster in Lenawee County for Q4 2014.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Online postings for this cluster decreased from 35 in Q3 to 33 in Q4 for the county. This is not surprising since Q3 typically represents the annual peak in postings. Demand in this cluster appears to be rather stagnant, as the number of postings has fluctuated between 27 and 37 in 7 of the last 8 quarters. Skilled trades and technicians postings represent 3.2% of postings in Lenawee County.
Employment in this occupational group reached a low in 2010 with the recession and has been increasing very slowly since then. Currently, employment in this sector is at 1,770, an extremely marginal increase from last year (1,768). Employment numbers have not yet surpassed pre-recession levels. Growth is slow but trending upward, and at the very least remaining steady.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS obs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Industrial Engineers is the top posting occupation in Lenawee County for the second consecutive quarters with 5 postings. This occupation represents one out of every three postings for this cluster. With very few postings in this cluster the occupations following the top often shift each quarter.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Since peaking in Q2 2014 with 33 postings, quarterly job ads for this cluster have been declining. Postings typically decline following Q3 and this year is no different. Engineering and design postings represent just 1.5% of all online job ads in Lenawee County.
Employment in engineering and design occupations follows a similar trend to many other occupational groups and counties in Region 9. Employment reached the biggest trough in 2009-2010 and has been on an upward trend since then. Marginal fluctuations have occurred each year since 2011, but, overall employment in this sector remains steady. The average is around 500 (employment sits at 503 in the current year_. This is not as high as pre-recession employment levels (around 550), but the sector has recovered 60 jobs since the 2009 low.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and ma management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is uickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Computer Systems Analysts is the number one IT occupation in Lenawee County with 6 postings. Network and Computer Systems Administrators, the top posting for the previous two quarters, falls in a four-way tie for second with Computer Information Systems Managers, Web Developers and Computer User Support Specialists (3 postings each). Demand for IT in this area is relatively low compared to other sectors and counties.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings in Lenawee County have been rising over the last two quarters and more than doubled between Q3 and Q4 2014. This is the highest number of postings for this cluster since Q1 2012. Given historical trends and the low demand for IT occupations in the area it is unlikely that postings will continue to rise at such a high rate. IT postings represent 2.8% of total postings in Lenawee County.
IT employment in Lenawee County is currently the highest it has been since 2005, at 319 individuals. Employment in this occupational group took a big dive between 2005 and 2006, then stagnated for several years (throughout the recession), until 2012 when employment began slowly trending upward. 2015 data will determine if this increase is here to stay, and if the approximately 320 high will become the new average.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing; more health care workers are needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. Registered Nurses dominate health care job postings in Lenawee County with 30 job ads during Q4 2014. This occupation represents nearly one out of every four online postings related to health care in the county. Registered Nurses have been the top online poster in this sector for several quarters which is typical for most counties in the region. Other top postings include Physical Therapists (19 postings) and Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (10 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Health care postings have slightly decreased this quarter following a large spike in Q3 2014. Q4 has 133 health care online job ads compared to 142 in Q3—a 6% decrease. Growth in postings has been relatively stagnant for the last few years. Generally, online postings have fluctuated with a series of quarters of growth or decline following a trough or peak. Health care occupation postings represent 12.9% of total postings in Lenawee County.
Health care employment has not been following the trend in the other occupational groups WIN studies. Rather than increasing after the recession, employment in the health care cluster is steadily decreasing. Despite high levels of postings, and the region health care trend of being “recession proof”, employment has been on a downward slope for the past decade. Between 2013 and 2014, employment dropped from 2,311 to 2,280, and dropped from 2012 to 2013 as well. Interestingly, when postings peaked in 2012, employment in the county did not. This may mean that people living outside of Lenawee County are obtaining the available healthcare jobs or that postings are high to maintain staffing levels rather than for new jobs.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9. Retail and hospitality postings represent by far, the largest share of the six occupational cluster groups analyzed by WIN in Lenawee County. Top jobs in this region include Retail Salespersons (36 postings), Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (28 postings), Customer Service Representatives (20 postings) and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (19 postings). These four occupations account for over 40% of all retail and hospitality postings in Lenawee County.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality online postings have been gradually increasing since a four-year low in Q4 2012 (57 postings). Historical trends show that retail and hospitality postings will peak in Q3—seasonal employment for holiday shopping—followed by a sharp decrease in Q4. 2014 is no different with postings shrinking from 318 in Q3 to 238 in Q4 —a 25% decline. However, postings remain high as this occupational cluster has experienced linear employment growth in the county since 2009. Retail and hospitality online job ads share 23% of total Q4 postings for Lenawee County.
The share of employment in retail and hospitality occupations is the highest in the county among the occupational groups WIN studies. 8,694 people hold retail and hospitality positions in 2014, an increase from the 2013 level of 8,610. Employment growth in this cluster has been occurring since the trough in 2010, similar to many other clusters. Employment levels have nearly recovered to pre-recession peak levels. If growth continues in 2015, employment levels should surpass the pre-recession peaks.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9. 20 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers represent the top agricultural occupation in Lenawee County according to online job ads with 3 postings in Q4 2014. This is the second consecutive quarter in which this occupation holds the top spot. Postings are low in general for this occupational group because many jobs are not traditionally posted online. This trend is slowly shifting as more employers turn to online job ads to find the talent they need, but postings remain low in comparison to employment needs.
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AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Postings have remained relatively stagnant throughout 2014, fluctuating between 11 and 14 each quarter. Historical trends suggest that Q4 presents a steep decline in postings compared to Q3. However, online job ads actually increased to 12 in Q4 compared to 11 in Q3. This could signal that agriculture employers are exploiting new methods of searching for talent. Agriculture occupational online postings represent just 1.2% of all online job postings in Lenawee County.
By examining the employment numbers in agricultural occupations, the importance of this industry to Lenawee County becomes more apparent. Employment in the agricultural occupational group is currently 1,597—a slight drop from last year’s count of 1,599, but still remaining steady. Interestingly, this industry did not follow the trend that many other occupational groups did—the biggest trough was not in 2009 and 2010, but in 2011 when most other industries were beginning to make a comeback. Employment has been recovering since 2012, but has not yet peaked again as it did in 2009.
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AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS WAGES
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AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
Labor force participation increased by 357 individuals or 0.8%. Q4 marks the first time in 2014 that the labor force number reached greater than 45,000. Employment in the county increased by 1,129 workers during Q4, a 2.7% increase over Q3. In addition, employment continues its upward trend over the last 18 months and reached a number not seen since Q4 2008. This continued employment growth comes at a time when the labor force is relatively stagnant, meaning that any unemployment change can be attributed to people obtaining or leaving jobs. The overall unemployment percentage in Lenawee County decreased from 7.1% in Q3 2014 to 5.3% in Q4. This is the lowest unemployment rate in Lenawee County according to WIN’s data which date back to 2003. Because employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force, the decrease in the unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs. Online job postings for Lenawee County have grown tremendously since its lowest point in Q4 2012 (268 postings). This is the second consecutive quarter where the total number of job ads posted online for Lenawee County reached over 1,000. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers dominate online job postings for Lenawee County, nearly quadrupling the next top posted job in Q4 2014. This has been the top posted occupation for the county in each quarter of 2014, and the number of postings increase each quarter. 44.6% of all online job ads in Lenawee County are in one of the six occupation groups analyzed by WIN.
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment that what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH