WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 LIVINGSTON COUNTY 路 Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality
GEOGRAPHY
WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on Livingston county.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is the top posting occupation with 106 postings, continuing its rise over the past few quarters not only in Livingston County but across the WIN region as well. This is the first time since WIN has been aggregating data (Q1 2011) that a non-retail or hospitality related position has topped the list in Livingston County. However, retail and hospitality related positions remain prevalent, claiming nearly half of the top posting occupations.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
Labor force changes in Livingston County have been relatively flat throughout 2014. There was a slight rise in labor force participation between Q3 and Q4—a 0.1% increase. Current trends suggest that the area will continue to have a relatively stable labor force and annual peaks during Q2. Employment in the county increased above 84,000 during Q4, a 0.3% increase over Q3. In addition, employment peaked in October and continues along a positive trend reaching levels not experienced since Q4 2008. This increase in employment comes at a time when the labor force is relatively stagnant, meaning that any unemployment change can be attributed to people obtaining or leaving jobs.
This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 0.2 percentage points, decreasing the overall unemployment percentage in Livingston County from 6.7% in Q3 2014 to 6.5% in Q4. The WIN region average is 6.5% for Q4. This is the lowest unemployment rate in Livingston County since April 2008. Because employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force, the decrease in unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs. Livingston County online job postings peaked in Q3 2013 along with the rest of the WIN region but have become relatively stagnant since then, shifting only slightly after a drop experienced in Q4 2013. Since that peak, jobs ads have remained in the 1,300-1,400 range each quarter. However, the number of job ads posted online by Livingston County employers increased to 1,519 for Q4 2014. Next quarter will be indicative of whether this will become an upward trend or if postings will continue to stagnate. 3
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
LIVINGSTON COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The top postings in the skilled trade and technicians group are for Production Workers, All Other with 15 postings. The next most prevalent posting occupation is for Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic. This occupation has been the most commonly posted occupation in the skilled trades and technicians sector for several quarters.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Livingston County employers posted 66 online job ads for skilled trade and technicians positions in Q4 2014. Job postings reached the highest peak in this data history in Q2 2011, but have been steadily falling since then. Historically, postings reach an annual low in Q4 and then are followed by an increase in postings for Q1 of the next year. These jobs are not traditionally posted online but are often filled through unions, hiring halls, or word of mouth. The trend is shifting though, with more and more employers turning to online postings to find qualified workers. Skilled trades and technicians hold 4.3% of total postings in Livingston County.
Employment in Skilled Trades in Livingston County has been steadily increasing since the lowest point in 2009 (2,057 workers). With 3,165 employees this year, employment is nearing pre-recession levels (2005 level of 3,454), but has not yet surpassed the peak in 2005. Since the trough in 2009, employment has increased by 1,108. Between 2013 and 2014, this occupational group added 186 to the employment number. With sustained levels of posting and marked growth in the past several years, the WIN team expects that job growth in this sector will continue.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Postings for Mechanical Engineers are the most prevalent occupation in this cluster in Livingston County in Q4 2014 with seven postings. The next most commonly posted occupations are Electrical, Civil, and Industrial Engineers with five, four, and four postings, respectively. These four occupations, in the same order, match the top four for the WIN region this quarter.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
The number of engineer and designer postings decreased since Q3 from 41 to 34 postings. The number of postings has fluctuated between these two numbers since 2013. This cluster now represents 2.2% of total online postings in Livingston County.
Employment in engineering and design occupations in Livingston County has rebounded since the recession. Currently at 1,470 workers (up from 901 in 2009), employment is growing rapidly. The pre-recession peak in 2005 shows 1,573 employed in these occupations. If growth continues on the current trajectory employment should reach or surpass the 2005 peak in the next two years.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Postings for Computer User Support Specialists are the most prevalent in this cluster in Q4 2014 with nine postings. This accounts for nearly 25% of all postings in IT in Livingston County. Other top postings include Computer Systems Analysts with eight postings and Software Developers, Applications with five postings. These three occupations also top the WIN region list in IT for Q4.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings decreased by four this quarter from 44 to 40 postings. IT postings are not as prevalent in Livingston County as they are in many other WIN region counties. Like the Engineer and Designers cluster, the IT cluster in Livingston County has a low share of total postings, just 2.6%.
Despite low posting levels, IT employment in Livingston County is on a growth surge. With steadily increasing employment since the recession trough in 2009 (802 workers), employment has surpassed the 2005 pre-recession peak of 1,002 employees to 1,269 employees today. Employment growth patterns indicate that more growth will occur in the future.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. As in previous quarters, Registered Nurses remain the most commonly posted occupation in Q4 2014. Online postings for Registered Nurses represent 18% of all postings for Health care related occupations in Livingston County. Other top postings in the county include Nursing Assistants (10 postings) and Medical Assistants (7 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Since a peak in Q3 2013 with 253 job postings Livingston County’s Health care sector has remained relatively stagnant with the past four quarters falling between 125 and 140 postings. Several mergers across health systems may be responsible for the overall drop in postings in this occupation group since Q3 2013. Health care postings represent 9% of all online job ads in Livingston County.
Health Care employment numbers have been steadily increasing, with no year representing a decrease in employment from the previous year, even throughout the recession. This trend is similar throughout most of the WIN region, as health care is presenting itself as nearly “recession proof”. Employment currently stands at 3,846 workers, up from 3,037 in 2005.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region. Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in this region include Retail Salespersons (90 postings), First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (51 postings), Customer Service Representatives (39 postings) and Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (31 postings). These four occupations account for nearly 50% of all retail and hospitality postings in Livingston County.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality online postings have fluctuated for several years with a major peak in Q3 2013 with 589 postings. Quarterly postings have demonstrated an upward trend since 2011. While retail and hospitality posting behavior is often due to turn-over in staff and not significant job growth, this is the first time postings have increased from Q3 to Q4. Retail & hospitality postings represent 28.8% of all total posting making this cluster the largest posting cluster in Livingston County.
Retail and hospitality employment in Livingston County has, like other occupational groups, increased since experiencing a trough with the recession in 2009 (14,478 workers) and 2010. However, the drop in retail and hospitality employment was not as dramatic as other occupational groups experienced in 2009 and 2010. Since then, employment in this industry has far surpassed prerecession levels reaching 18,755 employees today. There was a significant increase in employment in this area between 2012 (16,154 workers) and 2013 (18,438 workers), and although this year also represented an increase, employment growth seems to be slowing.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
There has been a slight rise in labor force participation between Q3 and Q4—a 0.1% increase. Current trends suggest that the area will continue to have a relatively stable labor force and annual peaks during Q2. The labor force for this region has been relatively stable over the past several years. Employment in the county increased above 84,000 during Q4, a 0.3% increase over Q3. In addition, employment peaked in October and continues along a positive trend reaching levels not experienced since 2008. This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 0.2 percentage points, decreasing the overall unemployment percentage in Livingston County from 6.7% in Q3 2014 to 6.5% in Q4. This is the lowest unemployment rate in Livingston County since April 2008. Because employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force decreased, the decrease in unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs. Livingston County online job postings peaked in Q3 2013 along with the rest of the WIN region and have become relatively stagnant since then, shifting only slightly after a drop experienced in Q4 2013. Since that peak, jobs ads have remained in the 1,300-1,400 range per quarter. However, the number of job ads posted online by Livingston County employers increased to 1,519 for Q4 2014. 46.9% of online job postings in Livingston County are for jobs in one of the five occupations groups analyzed by WIN.
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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