Macomb q4 2014 report by Workforce Intelligence Network

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 MACOMB COUNTY 路 Q4 2014

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality

GEOGRAPHY

WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on Macomb County.

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND October - December 2014

The top postings in Macomb County have consistently included many of the same occupations for over a year running. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers rose seven spots between Q3 and Q4 to reach the highest job in demand. Retail Salespersons, Registered Nurses, and Software Developers for Applications have rotated among the top 5 spots nearly every quarter since early 2013. Each of these jobs has high posting levels for different reasons. Retail sales jobs are often high turnover and therefore must post a lot in order to keep a certain level of employment. Other jobs, like software developers are experiencing great need at the moment and employers are scrambling to get the talent they need to fill these high demand jobs. 2

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYMENT DEMAND October - December 2014

The labor force in Macomb County has been slowly increasing for several years but in the most recent quarters has flattened, and now in Q4 has dropped. In Q1 2014, the labor force was fairly level. In Q2 2014 levels dropped slightly but increased in Q3. During Q4 the labor force declined by 4,000 from Q3 (1.0% decline). While a drop in Q4 is consistent with most fourth quarter trends, the drop was large enough in Q4 2014 to put the average 2014 labor force below that of the 2013 average level. Employment in the county has been increasing since the 2009 trough, similar to the rest of the Southeast Michigan region. Increases in employment have consistently been faster than labor force increases, but are still modest. In the most recent quarter, employment grew by 1,500 individuals (0.3% growth). Annual employment in 2014 surpassed that from 2013, by a small margin (2,700 employed). Growth is not rapid, but any employment increase is positive for Macomb County.

The unemployment rate decreased from 8.5% to 7.3% in between quarters three and four 2014. This seems like a positive sign, however, this change is mainly due to a decrease in labor force. While the unemployment rate is lower this quarter, it is due to workers either leaving the area or exiting their term of unemployment. During Q4 2014, Macomb County job posting levels remained level from the previous quarter with a total of 9,640 online job ads from employers in the county (up a small amount from 9,508 n Q3 2014). Postings have remained generally stagnant since Q4 2013, hovering around 9,500 after a peak in Q3 2013 of 11,325. While postings are not growing, Q3 and Q4 2014 data has confirmed that higher levels are remaining consistent after much fluctuation in 2011 and 2013.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

MACOMB COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW Clusters

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Change Over Time

Q4 2014

Share of Total Postings Q1 2014

Total

Skilled Trades

Engineers & Designers

Health Care

Retail and Hospitality

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trade and technician group are for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers with 71 postings (13.5% of all skilled trade-related postings in the Macomb County). The next most prevalent postings are for Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic (67 postings), Production Workers, All Others (51 postings) and Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, And Weighers (49 postings).

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Skilled trades and technicians postings have declined since last quarter, dropping by 186 postings. Employer demand for skilled trade and technician workers, on average, fluctuates around 500 postings. Skilled trade and technician postings represent 5.5% of total Macomb County online job postings.

The number of individuals employed in Southeast Michigan skilled trades and technicians positions has increased slightly from 25,451 (2013) to 26,347 (2014). The pace of adding new skilled trades jobs has consistently grown in the last five years. While employment levels for this occupational cluster area headed in the right direction, the number of jobs has not reached pre-recession levels.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Mechanical Engineers represent 19.6% of all engineering and design job postings in Q4 2014 with 160 postings. Postings for this occupation remain high every quarter. Other top jobs include Electrical Engineers (139 postings), and Civil Engineers (102 postings). These postings together represent about 49.1% of all postings in this occupation group.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Engineer and designer postings in Macomb County have dropped this quarter, declining from 1,013 in Q3 2014 to 817. This is consistent with historic trends, which normally see Q4 postings decrease from Q3. Engineer and designer postings represent 8.5% of total online job postings in Macomb County.

The number of individuals employed in Southeast Michigan engineer and designer positions has increased from 11,102 (2013) to 11,289 (2014). The rate of growth since 2009/2010 has slowed. The pace of adding new engineer and designer jobs has consistently grown in the last five years.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and ma management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. A quarter of all IT postings in Macomb County are for Software Developers, Applications (211 postings). This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years running. Other top postings include Computer Systems Analysts (121 postings), and Computer User Support Specialists (87 postings). These occupations account for 53.3% of all IT postings in Macomb County.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

IT postings in Macomb County have flat-lined over the past four years, with less drastic changes in posting levels from quarter to quarter. Job postings in this occupational cluster have dropped since the previous quarter (849 to 786) and have fluctuated each quarter for two full years. Fourth quarter job posting levels are also consistently lower than those in Q3. IT postings make up 8.2% of total postings in Macomb County.

The number of individuals employed in Macomb County information technology positions has increased from 5,976 (2013) to 6,016 (2014-annualized). However, the rate of growth has declined or drastically slowed since 2012, but employment has reached pre-recession levels. Prior to 2012, employment in this occupational cluster was growing at an unprecedented rate.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

HEALTH CARE

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers are needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. Over 23.0% of health care job postings in Macomb County are for Registered Nurses (226 postings). This occupation has been the top online poster for several years running. Other top postings in the region include those for Medical Assistants (67 postings), and Physical Therapists (65 postings).

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Health care postings increased from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014, reaching new levels and bucking the trend of decreasing in Q4. This quarter showed that health care postings might be starting a steady rise, with two consecutive quarters of growth. This is the first time postings have increased in two consecutive quarters since Q4 2011 and Q1 2012. Health care occupation online postings represent 10.2% of all online job postings in Macomb County.

The number of individuals employed in Macomb County health care positions has decreased from 28,931 (2013) to 28,824 (2014). Health care employment has been slower to grow than other occupational clusters and has declined several times over the past five years, whereas most of the other clusters have consistently grown. Health care in Macomb County did not experience the trough that other occupational clusters experienced during the recession. Instead, the cluster has almost consistently grown.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region. Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupations groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in this area include Retail Salespersons (365 postings), First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (200 postings), and Customer Service Representatives (169 postings).

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Retail and hospitality online postings declined from Q3 2014 (2,172 postings) to Q4 2014 (2,053 postings). This marks a full year of decline from the Q3 2013 peak of 2,946 postings. Although this occupational cluster declined, job posting levels remain higher than 2011-early 2013 posting levels. This is also the second year in a row that shows declines in job postings through Q3 and Q4, a prime holiday shopping time. The drops could be the result of increased online shopping displacing in-store holiday shopping. Retail & hospitality postings represent 21.3% of all online job postings in Macomb County, the most common posting occupation group in the region.

The number of individuals employed in Southeast Michigan retail and hospitality positions has plateaued, decreasing by only 3 positions from 2013 to 2014. This is the first year since 2009 that retail and hospitality employment has not grown. Employment levels in the cluster are nearing pre-recession posting levels, but have yet to reach numbers seen in 2005.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

SECTION FOUR

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

• During Q4 the labor force declined by 4,000 from Q3 (1.0% decline). While a drop in Q4 is consistent with most fourth quarter trends, the drop was large enough in Q4 2014 to put the average 2014 labor force below that of the 2013 average level. • In the most recent quarter, employment grew by 1,500 individuals (0.3% growth). Annual employment in 2014 surpassed that from 2013, by a small margin (2,700 employed). Growth is not rapid, but any employment increase is positive for Macomb County. • The unemployment rate decreased from 8.5% to 7.3% in between quarters three and four 2014. This seems like a positive sign, however, this change is mainly due to a decrease in labor force. While the unemployment rate is lower this quarter, it is due to workers either leaving the area or exiting their term of unemployment. • During Q4 2014, Macomb County job posting levels remained level from the previous quarter with a total of 9,640 online job ads from employers in the county (up a small amount from 9.508 n Q3 2014). Postings have remained generally stagnant since Q4 2013 hovering around 9,500 after a peak in Q3 2013 of 11,325. While postings are not growing, Q3 and Q4 2014 data has confirmed that higher levels are remaining consistent after much fluctuation in 2011 and 2013. • 53.6% of online job postings in the Macomb County are from one of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH