Q1 2015
WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT DATA SUMMARY PROSPERITY REGION 9
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 1st QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released first quarter (Q1) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the six counties of region nine in Southeast Michigan (Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw). Below is a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety by using the link below: http://win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
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SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW Q1 2015 Region 9’s labor market set to expand as job postings reach a new high in Q1 2015. Total job postings in the region reached a peak this quarter with 17,499 online ads posted by local employers. Postings in Region 9 remain high relative to previous years, following an initial spike at 19,980 postings in Q3 2013. That spike turned out to be the start of a new trend of higher posting levels with Q1 2015’s 17,499 postings the highest seen since 2013’s original peak. Historically, postings in Region 9 have remained relatively stagnant between Q1 and Q2, so this can be expected in 2015, however, the data point to an overall increase in job demand. Every occupation cluster analyzed by WIN experienced gains in job postings this quarter, contributing to the region’s overall growth in job demand. IT added the most postings and grew the most (865 additional job ads, 66% growth over Q4 2014). 100% of the growth in online job ads can be explained by the six clusters analyzed for Region 9. Region 9 employment peaked in November 2014 at 463,932 individuals, a positive trend of growth is likely to continue. Though 2015 data has been released, it is not yet comparable to previous data trends because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recalibrated their model and the historical data has not retroactively been adjusted. Because of this, WIN cannot make comparisons between historical trends and the new 2015 information. Employment in the region is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. The annual average employment in Region 9 in 2014 was 456,096 individuals with an available labor force of 485,765. December 2014’s employment of 460,875 individuals demonstrates a strong gain from January’s 445,155. The region’s average unemployment rate was 6.1% during 2014, a 1.4 percentage point drop from 2013’s average rate of 7.5%. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains. Among the notable trends that could affect future job demand include: • The Federal Reserve has lowered the economic outlook as employment has not grown as fast as originally projected. This mainly affects interest rates which have been held low to encourage borrowing and spending until employment increases to a stronger position. http://www.reuters.com/ article/2015/04/29/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0NK09F20150429 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) is above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The current rate of growth is faster than the already quickly growing 2014 rates. http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942 • Consumer confidence as surveyed by University of Michigan shows an increasing pattern throughout Q1 2015 and into Q2 2015. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ 2
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
Regional job postings increased 14.2% between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. While the region as a whole saw growth in job demand, employers in every county did not increase postings. Postings grew the most in Jackson (28.2%), Livingston (25.4%), and Washtenaw (19.7%) Counties. Increased job demand in Washtenaw County contributed most, 80.1%, to overall regional growth in postings.
While these counties saw large increases in job demand and contributed to Region 9’s overall posting growth between quarters, some counties did not experience growth. Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties all experienced negative growth in job ads, primarily driven by a drop in demand for retail and hospitality jobs.
TOTAL POSTINGS Q1 2015
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SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYSIS WIN tracks five key occupational clusters regularly, including advanced manufacturing (broken down by engineering/design occupations and skilled trades/technician occupations), health care, information technology, retail and hospitality, and agriculture.
Job demand in each of these occupational clusters grew between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015, in order for demand to grow across Region 9. Postings in the information technology cluster grew the most in Q1, with a 66% increase from 1,309 to 2,174, responsible for 40% of the region’s growth in job postings. The 60% increase in demand in the engineering & design occupational cluster account for 15% of overall job postings growth. See the accompanying data tables for county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.
POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER
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SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (800 postings) Software developers, applications (676 postings) Registered nurses (654 postings) Retail salespersons (501 postings) First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (368 postings) Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products (364 postings) Customer service representatives (348 postings) Maintenance and repair workers, general (284 postings) Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive (266 postings) Computer user support specialists (240 postings)
Region 9’s top in-demand occupations remain relatively unchanged, but the occupations shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the top in-demand position once again, with 800 online ads in Q1 2015. Retail salespersons and registered nurses are also some of the region’s most in-demand occupations, again this quarter. Postings for software developers, applications more than doubled between Q4 2014 (307 postings) and Q1 (676 postings), bringing this occupation to the second most in-demand spot in Region 9. Every occupation cluster analyzed by WIN experienced gains in job postings this quarter, contributing to the region’s overall growth in job demand. 100% of the growth in online job ads can be explained by the six clusters analyzed for Region 9.
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SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT 2014 was a time of limited expansion in employment and nearly no change in the labor force. The annual average employment in Region 9 in 2014 was 456,096 individuals with an available labor force of 485,765. Employment peaked in November 2014 at 463,932 individuals, a positive trend of growth is likely to continue. Employment in Region 9 is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. December 2014’s employment of 460,875 individuals demonstrates a strong gain from January’s 445,155.
The region’s average unemployment rate was 6.1% during 2014, a 1.4 percentage point drop from 2013’s average rate of 7.5%. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains.
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ABOUT WIN The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between nine community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges
Michigan Works! Agencies
Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
Detroit Employment Solutions Corp. Genesee-Shiawassee Michigan Works! Livingston County Michigan Works! Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works! Oakland County Michigan Works! Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Washtenaw County Michigan Works!
NOTES: Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@winsemich.org. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: http:// www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm
Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
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SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q1 2015
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ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q1 2015
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POSTINGS Q1 2015
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HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q1 2015
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q1 2015
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AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q1 2015
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