Q2 2015 hillsdale county final

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 HILLSDALE COUNTY 路 Q2 2015

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Hillsdale County.

SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015

Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (55 postings) retain their spot at the top of Hillsdale County’s most in-demand occupations list during Q2 2015. This level of postings is up from 39 in Q1 2015 and 18 in Q4 2014. Truck driving also outpaces the next most in-demand occupation by a ratio of 5:1, with Hillsdale County employers posting 11 online job ads for physical therapists during Q2.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Employment in Hillsdale County grew 2.2% between Q1 2015 and Q2, from 19,001 to 19,416. The county’s labor force, which had remained fairly stagnant, also grew between quarters to 20,523 (1.5% increase). Still, with employment growing faster than labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate from 6.0% back down to 5.4% (as it was in Q4 2014) can be attributed to people gaining jobs.

EMPLOYER DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015

Total job postings in Hillsdale Country remained flat between Q1 2015 and Q2 with 290 online job ads. This stagnation follows a peak in employer demand in Q3 2013, when Hillsdale County employers posted 402 online job ads. Quarterly posting levels have fluctuated around 300 since.

Total job postings in Hillsdale County have remained stagnant even while most occupation clusters analyzed by WIN experienced decreases in employer demand compared to Q1 2015. This is in part because the occupational clusters analyzed by WIN account for only 49% of postings in Hillsdale County this quarter. Also, Engineers & Designers were the only occupational cluster to gain more postings, increasing 57.1% from Q1 to Q2; employers posted 11 job ads compared to 7 in Q1.

Postings in the Health Care cluster declined slightly between Q1 and Q2, but this quarter’s levels are still above those seen during Q2 2014.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

HILLSDALE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country.

In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9.

NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers (4 postings) remain atop the in-demand occupations list for the Skilled Trades cluster in Hillsdale County, as they were in Q1 2015. Production workers (4 postings) also top the list, along with manufacturing production technicians (3 postings), milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders (2 postings); and machinists (2 postings).

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Postings for occupations in the Skilled Trades cluster are down from Q1 2015, decreasing from 35 to 25, while overall postings in Hillsdale County remain the same this quarter. Postings for this cluster have been low compared to the peak of 70 postings during Q3 2013, and have fluctuated between 25 and 42 since the initial drop in Q4 2013. Postings in the Skilled Trades cluster account for 8.6% of all online job ads in Hillsdale County during Q2 2015.

Hillsdale County has a competitive edge in many Skilled Trades cluster occupations compared to the national average. One standout occupation for Hillsdale County employment is milling and planing machine setter, operators, and tenders, with a location quotient (LQ) of 8.54, meaning that workers in this occupation are 8.54 times more concentrated here than elsewhere in the nation.

Skilled trade jobs also allow workers to earn a living wage, with the median hourly rate above $15 for many in-demand jobs. Starting wages (10th percentile) are not as competitive for every job, but all positions offer upward wage growth.

Many skilled trade jobs do not require a post-secondary degree but often require on-the-job training. Technician positions require an associate’s degree in engineering. While there are grads in the area with related training to the top skilled trade jobs, they are not enough to fill all open positions as employers continue to increase worker demand.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 10 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 10 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

Total posting numbers for Engineers & Designers in Hillsdale County during Q2 2015 are very small (11 postings). The top in-demand occupation for this cluster was industrial engineers, with 4 online job ads posted during this time period. Manufacturing engineers garnered 3 postings, while the rest of the engineering occupations saw only 1 ad each.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

The Engineering & Design occupation cluster was the only cluster analyzed by WIN that saw postings increase from Q1 to Q2 2015. Hillsdale County employers posted 11 online job ads for engineers during Q2, up from 7 in Q1. Posting levels for this cluster seem to alternate around these levels each quarter. Engineering & Design job postings represent 3.8% of all online job ads in Hillsdale County this quarter.

Hillsdale County has a competitive edge for several of the top in-demand Engineering & Design occupations, with many of these workers being more heavily concentrated here then elsewhere in the nation. For example, industrial designers have a location quotient (LQ) of 4.03, meaning that this type of worker is 4.03 times more concentrated in Hillsdale County compared to the national average.

Engineering & Design jobs pay Hillsdale County workers well, with median wages for top indemand occupations ranging between $27.99 and $36.82 per hour. Typical entry-level (10th percentile) wages for these occupations also offer workers a living wage, with wages at $18.25 an hour and over.

These well-paying jobs require advanced educational attainment, as engineering positions require a bachelor’s degree. Many of the top in-demand engineering occupations do not have program graduates from regional institutions to fulfill employer demand.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9.

Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

Business intelligence analysts top the list of in-demand occupations for the IT cluster in Hillsdale County during Q2 2015 with 4 online job postings. As postings for the cluster are down this quarter, all other in-demand occupations had just one online job ad each. Q1 2015’s most indemand IT occupation, software developers, applications, did not appear on the top jobs list this quarter. This could be a signal that employers successfully found talent to fulfill their openings.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

IT postings in Hillsdale County are down to 8 online job ads during Q2 2015, compared to 14 in Q1. Postings in this cluster peaked in Q2 2014 at 17 postings, part of a volatile cycle of postings fluctuating between 5 and 17 postings per quarter starting in 2013. Thus, after the current dip in Q2 2015, postings for Hillsdale County’s IT occupation could increase during the next quarter.

IT postings make up 2.8% of total postings in Hillsdale County.

The number of workers in IT occupations in Hillsdale County do not compare to the national average for these jobs. The county’s most in-demand occupation, business intelligence analysts, have a location quotient (LQ) of 0.25, meaning that the concentration of this type of worker here is only 25% of the national average. With such low and volatile employer demand for these occupations, it is not likely that employment in IT will grow significantly in Hillsdale County in the near future.

Although Hillsdale County does not have high employment numbers for IT occupations, those that are employed in these jobs are paid well. Median hourly earnings for all of Hillsdale County’s in-demand IT jobs are above $20 per hour. Entry-level wages (10th percentile) range between $11.92 per hour and $22.74, but all occupations offer promising upward wage growth.

In order to get a high-paying IT job, Hillsdale County residents must attain at least a bachelor’s degree. Regional institutions report that many students are graduating from programs related to the top IT jobs in the county, but the mismatch between the high number of graduates and low employer demand mean that jobseekers must find employment in IT outside of Hillsdale County.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with, 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.

Physical therapists again top the list of in-demand jobs for Hillsdale County’s Health Care cluster during Q2 2015 with 11 postings, although this is down from 24 in Q1. Postings for physical therapist assistants, speech-language pathologists, and physician assistants following closely behind, at 8, 5, and 5 postings, respectively.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Postings for Health Care cluster occupations are down slightly from Q1 2015 to Q2, from 59 to 51.

However, this level of postings is high for the cluster, as Q1’s number represented the peak in employer demand since analysis started in 2011. If these posting levels are sustained, employment in this cluster could grow soon. Health care occupation online postings represent 17.6% of all online job postings in Hillsdale County. With such a high share of the region’s employer demand and the possibility for increased employment, Health Care occupations are an important part of Hillsdale’s economy.

Many of Hillsdale County’s most in-demand Health Care occupations have employment location quotients (LQ) above 1, or above the national average. Physical therapy assistants have a LQ of 1.72, meaning that the concentration of these workers in Hillsdale County is 172% the national average.

Top health care jobs, like physical therapists ($39.48 per hour) and speech-language pathologists ($37.71 per hour), offer Hillsdale County workers stable wages. Several of the top occupations also offer good wages at the entry level (10th percentile) with opportunity for upward wage growth.

Health care occupations present regional workers with opportunities for work at various educational levels. Most health care cluster occupations require either a two-year degree or some post-secondary training or certificate, at minimum. Higher skilled occupations like physician assistants and physicians or surgeons require advanced degrees, such as a master’s degree or doctoral or professional degree; Regional institutions have high numbers of completers in programs that could prepare workers for many of these health care occupations-even those most in-demand, like registered nurses.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9.

Hillsdale County employers sought to hire first-line supervisors of retail sales workers and customer service representatives, during Q2 2015, both with 7 postings each. Customer service representatives were Q1’s top in-demand workers, with 12 postings during the first three months of 2015.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Q4 2014 was a peak for employer demand in the Retail & Hospitality occupations cluster, with 106 online job ads representing a strong intent to hire during the holiday season in Hillsdale County.

Postings decreased by half in Q1 2015 to 50, and 41 in Q2. This drop is dramatic, but a decrease in demand for these occupations is expected at this point in the business cycle.

Despite the drop in postings, postings for the Retail & Hospitality occupations represent 14.1% of total online job ads in Hillsdale County, making it an important sector of the local economy.

Hillsdale County has high concentrations of Retail & Hospitality workers. The location quotient (LQ) of an occupation like first-line supervisors of retail sales workers shows that the concentration of this type of worker is 21% higher than the national average. Employment in other in-demand Retail & Hospitality occupations is not as strong in Hillsdale County, but more employer demand for these occupations could signal employment growth to come.

Occupations in this cluster compensate workers anywhere from $9.11 to $22.77 per hour at the median. Management level and wholesale & manufacturing sales positions offer some of the highest wages for their workers, as well as the most opportunity for wage growth with experience.

The higher-paying retail positions mentioned aboveare those most likely to require more education, like a bachelor’s degree. Most other occupations in the Retail & Hospitality cluster require little previous experience and only some on-the-job training of their workers. Many degrees can prepare workers for high level retail jobs in sales and marketing, so analyzing regional related degree completions is not very applicable to this occupation cluster.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9.

Employers in Hillsdale County only posted 6 online job ads for Agriculture occupations during Q2 2015. Butchers and meat cutters (3 postings), agricultural inspectors (2 postings), and veterinarians (1 posting) were in-demand April through June. The nature of Agriculture jobs and the low employer demand presented indicate that employers are not using online job postings as much as in other clusters to recruit and hire.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

As mentioned previously, Agriculture occupations do not often represent a large number of online job postings. Employers in Hillsdale County posted the most online job ads (12 postings) for these occupations during Q4 2014. Postings were down to 7 in Q1 2015 and 6 in Q2.

Agriculture occupations are the smallest cluster in Hillsdale County, accounting for just 2.1% of all online job ads in the region.

Hillsdale County’s top in-demand Agriculture cluster occupations are not heavily concentrated here, compared to the rest of the nation. Workers employed as veterinarians are 30% more concentrated in Hillsdale County compared to the rest of the country, but butchers and meat cutters and agricultural inspectors are not common occupations in the region.

A career in veterinary medicine would provide Hillsdale County residents high hourly earnings, at $39.95 at the median, and $25.64 at the entry level (10th percentile). There are insufficient data to conclude on wages for agricultural inspectors in Hillsdale. Butchers and meat cutters can expect lower wages, but upward wage growth in this occupation allows workers the opportunity to earn a living wage, above $15 per hour (75th percentile).

Many of the in-demand agriculture occupations do not require more than a high school diploma and are attainable with some on-the-job training. However, the high-paying jobs mentioned above in occupational health, environmental engineering, or scientific research, for example, require at least a bachelor’s degree. Continuing the example from above, median entry-level recreation workers are required to have a bachelor’s degree, but again, are one of the lowest paid occupations in this sector.

A high-paying job as a veterinarian requires advanced educational attainment, like a doctoral or professional degree. Entry-level agricultural inspectors are also often expected to have a bachelor’s degree. Graduates from veterinary programs in Hillsdale County (15 completions in 2013) outweigh the number needed by employers in Q2 2015 (1 job posting).

Many degrees can prepare completers for multiple jobs, therefore it is not advantageous to compare completions to demand in a cluster like agriculture, where programs do not map perfectly onto occupations and many occupations may not even require a degree.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

Employment in Hillsdale County grew 2.2% between Q1 2015 and Q2, from 19,001 to 19,416. The county’s labor force, which had remained fairly stagnant, also grew1.5%between quarters to 20,523 (1.5% increase).

With employment growing faster than labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate from 6.0% back down to 5.4% as it was in Q4 2014 can be attributed to people gaining jobs.

Total job postings in Hillsdale County have remained stagnant (290 job postings each in Q1 and Q2 2015) even while most occupation clusters analyzed by WIN experienced decreases in employer demand compared to Q1 2015.

Engineers & Designers were the only occupational cluster to gain more postings in Q2; employers posted 11 job ads compared to 7 in Q1.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

• Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County.

• All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data.

• Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank.

• Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report.

• Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports.

• Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations.

• Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

• Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them.

• WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry.

• By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH