WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 REGION NINE 路 Q2 2015
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
GEOGRAPHY
Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on the region as a whole.
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015
The Region 9’s top in-demand occupations remain relatively unchanged quarter to quarter, but the occupations shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle. The 26% increase in postings for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers between Q1 and Q2 2015, from 800 to 1,086, ensures that this occupation takes the top in-demand position once again. Postings for registered nurses increased 16%, from 654 in Q1 to 776 in Q2, making them the second most in-demand occupation. Software developers, applications (699 postings) and retail salespersons (518 postings) also retain spots in the top 5, this time alongside customer service representatives (368 postings). Demand for these occupations is consistently high each quarter in Region 9.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Between Q1 2015 and Q2, the labor force in Region 9’s six counties increased 1.1% to 501,933, up from 496,332, while employment grew at a slightly higher (1.5%) rate, from 472,702 to 479,757. Employment in Region 9 is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. This is the first quarter where the labor force has reached over 500,000 since early 2009. Employment has also reached highs this quarter peaking to pre-2008 levels. As employment continues to reach beyond levels not seen since before the recession, a positive trend of growth is likely to remain. The region’s average unemployment rate during 2015, to date, is 4.6%, a 1.3 percentage point drop from 2014’s average rate of 5.9%. The unemployment rate has been falling steadily each quarter, from 6.2% in Q3 2014 to 4.4% today in Q2 2015. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains. The region has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state (5.5% statewide average rate for this time period).
EMPLOYER DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015
Total job postings in the region reached a peak this quarter with 18,817 online ads posted by local employers. This peak represents a 7.5% increase in postings for Region 9 between Q1 (17,499 postings) and Q2. Postings in Region 9 remain high relative to previous years, following an initial spike at 19,980 postings in Q3 2013. That spike turned out to be the start of a new trend of higher posting levels with Q2’s postings being the highest seen since 2013’s original peak. Most occupation clusters analyzed by WIN experienced gains in job postings this quarter, contributing to the region’s overall growth in job demand. Job demand for Skilled Trades and Technicians jobs grew the most (11.2%) between quarters. Annually, postings in the Engineering & Design and IT clusters grew the most, over 40%, between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015. However, IT, Q1’s fastest-growing in-demand cluster, was the only cluster analyze that saw job ads decline between quarters (-3.5%).
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
REGION NINE DEMAND OVERVIEW
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The top jobs in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster during Q2 2015 were production workers (167 postings), first-line supervisors of production workers (107 postings), and inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, & weighers (102 postings). Q1’s top job, computer-controlled machine tool operators (94 postings in Q1), dropped significantly down the top jobs list with only 17 postings in Q2 signaling that employers likely filled the past-posted positions.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for Skilled Trades & Technicians increased from 689 in Q1 2015 to 766 in Q2, contributing to the increase in total postings seen in Region 9 this quarter. Adding these 77 postings between quarters brings employer demand in the Skilled Trades to one of the highest levels seen since analysis began, and is part of an increasingly less volatile cycle of postings in this sector since Q3 2013’s peak at 753 ads. Postings in the Skilled Trades cluster account for 3.9% of all job ads in Region 9 during Q2 2015.
Region 9 has a competitive edge in the skilled trades with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have a location quotient (LQ) of 4.95 meaning that the concentration of these workers in this 6county region is 4.95 times (395% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. Welders, cutters, and welder fitters is one of the top in-demand occupations with room for growth. With a LQ of 0.91, employment in this occupation in Region 9 is just slightly below the national average, and is set to grow in the future considering the current high demand by employers. Skilled trade jobs also allow workers to earn a living wage with the median hourly rate above $15 for nearly every in-demand job. Starting wages (10th percentile) are not as competitive for every job, but all positions offer upward wage growth. Many skilled trade jobs do not require a degree but instead a special certification and on-thejob training. Technician positions require an associate’s degree in engineering. While there are grads in the area with related training to the top skilled trade jobs, they are not enough to fill all open positions as employers continue to increase worker demand.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Mechanical engineers once again top the list in this cluster, with 192 postings in Q2 2015. Postings for this occupation remain high every quarter. Demand for electrical engineers and industrial engineers also remain high in Q2, with 133 and 102 online ads, respectively. These three occupations regularly hold the top spots, shifting order between quarters. Other top in-demand engineering jobs also remain relatively unchanged from Q1 2015.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in the Engineering & Design cluster remain high in Q2 with 864 online job ads, similar to Q1’s 855 postings. This level of postings represents a new peak in employer demand for the cluster since analysis began in 2011. This sustained high level of postings between Q1 and Q2 may signal increased employer demand, and subsequent employment growth, for engineers in the coming quarters. Engineering & Design postings represent 4.6% of online job ads in Region 9.
Region 9 has a competitive edge in the Engineering & Design occupations with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. The top indemand occupation, mechanical engineers, has a location quotient (LQ) of 3.34, meaning that the concentration of mechanical engineers in Region 9 is 3.34 times higher than the rest of the nation, on average. Civil engineers have a LQ of 0.92, slightly below the national average concentration of employment, but present a good area for employment growth in Region 9. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. Engineering & Design jobs are good paying jobs for Region 9 workers, with median wages often between $30 and $45 an hour for in-demand occupations. Entry-level wages (10th percentile), too, pay workers well, with many of the in-demand occupations starting above a living wage of $15 per hour, some even above $20 an hour, and with good opportunities for wage growth. These well-paying jobs require advanced educational attainment. Engineering positions require a bachelor’s degree, while entry-level drafter positions often require at least an associate’s degree. Regional institutions have high numbers of completers in programs that could prepare workers for many engineering and design occupations, but more are needed to fulfill employer demand.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. The top in-demand job for the IT cluster in Region 9 is, once again, software developers, applications, with 699 postings in Q2 2015. This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years and outpaces Q2’s next most in-demand occupation, business intelligence analysts (165 postings), by a ratio of more than 4:1. Employers in Region 9 also sought computer systems analysts (160 postings), computer user support specialists (132 postings), and web developers (127 postings) during Q2.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
IT postings in Region 9 remain high during Q2 at 2,098 postings, close to Q1’s peak at 2,174. Postings in this cluster had remained around the 1,400 level throughout 2014, and since a 1,768 peak in Q3 2013. Q2’s 2,098 postings is 49.5% higher than 2014’s average quarterly posting of 1,403. Sustained high levels of employer demand in this cluster between quarters could indicate future growth in employment for IT occupations in Region 9. IT postings make up 11.1% of total postings in Region 9, a relatively high demand occupation group.
Many of Region 9’s most in-demand IT occupations are more concentrated here compared to the national average. For example, computer systems analysts have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.31, meaning that this occupation is 1.31 times, or 31% more, concentrated in Region 9 compared to the rest of the nation. Other IT occupations also have LQs greater than 1, indicating a modest advantage for Region 9. Other IT occupations, like web developers, are concentrated in Region 9 at 89% of the national average. Employment in this occupation may grow in the future. IT cluster occupations are well-paying jobs for Region 9 workers. Median wages for many IT occupations top $35 per hour. Even starting wages (10th percentile) provide the region’s workers with living wages, with many of the most in-demand occupations paying close to $20 an hour, and room for wage growth. Most of these well-paying jobs require advanced educational attainment; almost all in-demand IT occupations require at least a bachelor’s degree. However, there is room for entry-level workers and those with some college or a two-year degree in some of the most in-demand occupations in Region 9, too. Regional institutions have high numbers of completers in programs that could prepare workers for many of these IT occupations, but employment numbers do not necessarily reflect that workers are choosing these professions or staying in the region to work after completing a degree.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with, 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster. Registered nurses again tops the list as the most in-demand occupation for the Health Care cluster in Region 9, as they also tend to do in other regions. Region 9 employers posted 776 online ads for RNs during Q2 2015, a 15% increase in postings over Q1’s 654 postings. This high level of employer demand for RN outpaces demand for other occupations in the Health Care cluster by a ratio of 5.5 to 1. The next most in-demand occupations were nursing assistants (140 postings) and nurse practitioners (137 postings) remaining unchanged from Q4 2014 and Q1 2015.
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Region 9 employers posted nearly 300 more job ads in the Health Care cluster in Q2 2015 than in Q1. With the increase in postings, employer demand for health care occupations has reached a new peak at 2,675, above Q3 2013’s peak at 2,583. Continued growth in demand could signal employment growth for health care occupations. Health care occupation online postings represent 14.2% all online job postings in Region 9.
Region 9 has a competitive edge in health care occupations with employment in many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration than the rest of the nation. Registered nurses have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.47, meaning that the concentration of this type of worker in Region 9 is 47% higher than the national average. LQs for nursing assistants, nurse practitioners, and several other health care occupations are similarly large. LQs for LPNs, speech-language pathologists, and pharmacy technicians are just under 1, signaling a potential area for employment growth in Region 9. Registered nurses and nurse practitioners are well-paying jobs for Region 9’s workers, with median wages in theses occupations of $31.79 and $41.25, respectively. Other health care occupations, representing a wide range of educational attainment and experience levels, promise living wages for workers as well. Many of Region 9’s most in-demand health care occupations offer workers living wages (above $15 an hour) at the entry-level. Most health care cluster occupations require either a two-year degree or some post-secondary training or certificate, at minimum. Higher skilled occupations like physician assistants and physicians or surgeons require advanced degrees, like a master’s degree or doctoral or professional degree; health care occupations present regional workers with opportunities for work at all educational levels. Regional institutions have high numbers of completers in programs that could prepare workers for many of these health care occupations, even the most in-demand like registered nurses, but job posting data still show high demand for RNs and similar occupations, indicating that employers see a mismatch between their needs and the skills of those completing related programs.
HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9. The top posting jobs in Retail & Hospitality remain consistent quarter to quarter. Retail salespersons once again top the demand lists, with 518 postings during Q2 2015. Demand for this occupation often significantly outpaces demand for the next highest posting job. Other top Retail & Hospitality jobs remain the same, but shuffle in rank from quarter to quarter. Customer service representatives (368 postings), sales representatives in wholesale and manufacturing (362 postings), and first-line supervisors of retail sales workers (328 postings) were the next most indemand occupations for Q2.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Region 9 employers posted 3,598 job ads in the Retail & Hospitality cluster during Q2 2015, a similar level to the 3,556 postings in Q1. Postings in this cluster had been declining since a peak at 4,891 ads in Q3 2013, but this sustained level of postings between quarters gives hope that retail employers in Region 9 will continue to hire, an indication of health in other areas of the economy. Retail & hospitality occupations are the most in-demand of the clusters analyzed in Region 9, accounting for 19.1% of all online job postings in the region.
Region 9 employment in certain Retail & Hospitality occupations has a slight competitive edge when compared to the rest of the nation, with location quotients (LQ) greater than 1, being equal to the national average. However, many of Region 9’s most in-demand Retail & Hospitality occupations have LQs between 0.69 and 0.99, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 69% and 99% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Retail & Hospitality can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill position to a low concentration of workers. Occupations in this cluster compensate workers anywhere from $9.37 to $49.57 per hour, at the median. Management level and wholesale & manufacturing sales positions offer some of the highest wages for their workers, and the most opportunity for wage growth with experience. Lower pay positions offer some upward growth but are often the 1st step for workers on a career pathway to another sector. The higher-paying retail positions, mentioned above, are those most likely to require more education, like a bachelor’s degree. Most other occupations in the Retail & Hospitality cluster require little previous experience and only some on-the-job training of their workers. Many degrees can prepare workers for high level retail jobs in sales and marketing, so analyzing regional related degree completions is not very applicable to this occupation cluster.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9. Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products was, by far, the most in-demand job in the agriculture occupational cluster for Region 9 in Q2 2015, with 97 postings. These workers are salespeople but have technical expertise and extensive on-the-job training. The next most in-demand occupations were landscaping and grounds keeping workers with 37 postings, and recreation workers with 25 postings. Job ads for landscaping and recreation tend to increase as spring and summer start up and employers bring workers back for the season.
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
The occupations in the Agriculture cluster garnered 379 online job ads during Q2 2015, similar to the 335 postings during Q1. Postings in this cluster typically increase in demand in Q1 and Q2 following drop-offs in Q3 and Q4. Based on this cyclical model and the nature of the occupations in this cluster, postings can be expected to decrease in Q3. Agriculture occupations are the smallest cluster in Region 9, accounting for just 2.0% of all online job ads in the region.
Region 9’s employment in agriculture occupations is similar to the national average. Occupations for which this differs are occupational health and safety technicians, with a location quotient (LQ) of 2.08, and agricultural inspectors (LQ = 2.02), meaning that these workers are twice as concentrated in Region 9 as the rest of the nation. Occupations like recreation workers (LQ = 1.30) are slightly more concentrated in the region compared to the rest of the U.S., but many of these agricultural occupations have room to make gains in employment. Median wages for agricultural occupations, like in the Retail & Hospitality cluster, represent a large range. Most high-paying jobs in this cluster are in engineering, research, or other STEM professions. Positions in sales are also higher-paying occupations in this cluster. There is great demand for recreation workers in Region 9, however, this occupation has one of the lowest median wages for the agriculture sector. Many of the in-demand agriculture occupations do not require more than a high school diploma and are attainable with some on-the-job training. However, the high-paying jobs mentioned above, in occupational health, environmental engineering, or scientific research, for example, require at least a bachelor’s degree. Continuing the example from above, median entry-level recreation workers are required to have a bachelor’s degree, but again, are one of the lowest paid occupations in this sector. Many degrees can prepare completers for multiple jobs, therefore it is not advantageous to compare completions to demand in a cluster like agriculture where programs do not map perfectly onto occupations and many occupations may not even require a degree.
AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
Employment in Region 9 continues to grow, up 1.5% between Q1 (472,702) and Q2 (479,757) while the region’s labor force grew at a slightly slower, 1.1%, rate, from 496,332 to 501,933. As Region 9 employment continues to grow faster than labor force participation, any decrease of the unemployment rate can be attributed to people gaining jobs. The region’s average unemployment rate during 2015, to date, is 4.6%, a 1.3 percentage point drop from 2014’s average rate of 5.9%. The unemployment rate has been falling steadily each quarter, from 6.2% in Q3 2014 to 4.4% today in Q2 2015. Total job postings in the region reached a peak this quarter with 18,817 online ads posted by local employers. This peak represents a 7.5% increase in postings for Region 9 between Q1 (17,499 postings) and Q2. The increase in total postings comes as a result of increased postings in most of the occupational clusters analyzed by WIN, which account for 55.2% of all online job postings in the region during Q2. The only cluster in Region 9 to experience a decline in postings between Q1 and Q2 2015 was IT. Health care postings in Region 9 are increasing, growing 12.2% between Q1 and Q2. Postings for occupations in this cluster also account for a large share of total online ads in Region 9, 14.2%.
SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH