WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 REGION NINE 路 Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters
Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
GEOGRAPHY
Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on this region as a whole.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
2
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
The top in-demand jobs in Region 9 continue to be the same several occupations. Heavy And Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Retail Salespersons, Registered Nurses, and Software Developers for Applications, have topped online postings since early 2013. The most in-demand occupation in the region is Heavy And Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers with 979 postings, double the number of the next highest posting occupation (Retail Salespersons with 484 postings). Heavy And Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are in high demand across the region.
3
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
Q4 has been a time of expansion in the Region 9 labor market. The labor force remained relatively unchanged, falling by 444 individuals (a 0.1% drop) from Q3 to Q4 2014. While the labor force did not have a notable change between Q3 and Q4, the annual average labor force participation for 2014 is higher than in previous years. This marks a second year of growth since the labor force’s lowest annual level in 2012. Employment increased by 4,980 workers from Q3 to Q4 2014, a 1.1% increase. Like the labor force, employment is marking a new high since the lowest levels experienced in 2011. Between Q3 and Q4 2014, the unemployment rate in Region 9 fell by 1.1 percentage points from 7.2% to 6.1%. Previously, the unemployment rate stagnated at 7.2% for quarters two and three in this region.
Q4 marks the lowest unemployment rate recorded in Region 9 since early 2008. Because the labor force did not shift in a marked manner, this drop is due to job gains. Postings in the region experienced a modest decline between Q3 and Q4 2014. Continuing on a slow but steady drop from a peak in Q3 2013 (19,980), postings have fallen over the past five quarters to 15,318 in Q4 2014. During Q3 this year postings were moderately higher at 15,497. The WIN research team believes that postings have stagnated as a result of hiring. Employment is up signaling that employers found the talent they needed during Q4. With postings stagnating, it could mean that employers do not intend to increase employment much further in Q1 2015.
4
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
5
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
REGION 9 DEMAND OVERVIEW
6
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trades and technicians group are for Production Workers, All Other with 83 postings. The next most prevalent postings are for Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers (74 postings). Skilled trades postings in Region 9 do not follow a clear trend but instead fluctuate from quarter to quarter. This signals that employer needs are not consistent.
7
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Overall postings for skilled trade workers have increased modestly this quarter, following the trend of total postings in Region 9. Postings in Q4 201 hit 502, up from 488 in Q3 2014. While postings are currently stagnating, and have previously fluctuated quarter to quarter, they have been on a slow downward sloping trend from 2011-2014. Skilled trades and technician postings represent 3.3% of total Region 9 online job postings.
Employment in skilled trade and technician jobs is 18,385 (2014). This is still below the pre-recession 2005 level of 22,428, but much higher than the recession trough of 14,157 in 2009. While employment is still lower than pre-recession, there has been steady upward movement since 2009. Growth has slowed in the past year as the slope is flattening, but the general trend is positive.
8
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
9
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
10
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Civil Engineers top the engineering and design posting charts for Region 9 in Q4 2014 with 108 postings. Close behind are Mechanical Engineers with 106 postings. Electrical Engineers, formerly the top poster, was the third most indemand occupation with 87 postings. Postings for these occupations remain high every quarter.
11
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Postings for engineers and designers in Region 9 have dropped this quarter from 560 in Q3 2014 to 532 in Q4, a modest drop. Postings were on a generally increasing trend until the Q3 2013 peak (772 postings) but have fallen since this time. Engineering and designer postings represent 3.5% of total online job postings in Region 9.
Employment in engineering and design jobs has nearly reached pre-recession levels that were last seen in 2005. Occupational employment in this cluster is currently 10,508 individuals, very close to the 2005 level of 10,975. Like many occupational groups, employment reached its lowest point this decade in 2009 (8,103). Engineering and design employment has made a swift recovery in the region. Continued posting behavior, coupled with strong employment growth, suggests that the region will see further employment growth in this cluster in the future.
12
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
13
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
14
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Not surprisingly, the top job in the IT cluster is once again Software Developers, Applications (307 postings). This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years and outposts the next most in-demand job almost 2:1 this quarter. Other top jobs in the region are Computer Systems Analysts (169 postings) and Computer User Support Specialists (147 postings). Employer demand remains high for workers with these specific skills as these three occupations have been at the top of the list routinely. Considering the past posting behavior for these occupations, and the direction of the regional economy, these trends are expected to continue.
15
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings have fallen for another consecutive quarter, dropping from 1,378 in Q3 2014 to 1,309 in Q4. After a Q3 2013 peak (1,768 postings), IT online job ads in Region 9 fell, stagnated, and have started to fall again to levels experienced during 2011. Postings may be dropping due to employers finding workers they need. Employment in IT occupations have been increasing rapidly over the past several years. IT postings make up 8.5% of total postings in the WIN region, a relatively high demand occupation group.
IT job growth in Region 9 is been steep for the past five years. The pre-recession high in 2005 of 10,278 workers was surpassed in 2011 and has been growing since. Employment currently rests at 11,773 workers and the trajectory indicates additional growth in the future.
16
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
17
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
18
HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with, 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. Similar to IT, the top job in health care is consistent from quarter to quarter. Postings for Registered Nurses once again top the list, with 450 postings in Q4 2014. This occupation has been the cluster’s top-demanded opportunity for several years running and outpaced the next top posters nearly 4:1. Demand for Registered Nurses is extremely high, especially for those with specialties such as surgery, anesthesia, labor and delivery, and others. Other top postings in the region include those for Nursing Assistants (125 postings) and Nurse Practitioners (118 postings).
19
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Health care postings have been on a general upward trend since 2011. However, since Q4 2013, postings have been relatively stagnant with the exception of a few quarterly ups and downs. In Q4 2014, postings fell modestly from 2,084 in Q3 2014 to 1,942 in Q4. Health care occupations online postings represent 12.7% down from 13.4% of all online job postings in Region 9.
Employment in health care jobs has not followed similar patterns of other occupations, including a notable drop during the recession and then a clear recovery-driven increase. Over the past decade, employment in health care jobs has grown in an almost linear pattern. Currently, employment in health care is at 48,914, and the trend is moving consistently upward. There are competing forces within the health care cluster that could push employment in different directions. High posting levels are indicative of continued future employment growth. However, mergers among health systems could impose some negative pressure on employment, for example, in administrative positions. Despite these industry shifts, the region’s aging population and key regulatory changes will further elevate the need for health care workers in the long run and employment growth has been clearly showing how these jobs really are in-demand.
20
HEALTH CARE TOP 10 JOBS WAGES
21
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
22
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9. The top postings jobs in retail and hospitality remain consistent from quarter to quarter. Retail Salespersons once again top the online-job demand list, with 484 in Q4 2014. Other top jobs in this cluster include Customer Service Representatives (283 postings), and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (281 postings).
23
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Postings in retail and hospitality have dropped this quarter compared to last from 3,603 in Q3 to 3,052 in Q4 2014. Online job ads for retail and hospitality workers have been on a strong downward slope for three consecutive quarters and the trend is expected to continue. Retail and hospitality employers may have achieved a fairly consistent level of posting that is sufficient to maintain their workforce with new and replacement hires, which would explain lower levels of posting. Retail & hospitality postings represent 19.9% down from 24.1% in Q3 of all online job postings in Region 9.
Employment in retail and hospitality has recovered fully from the recession and moved even farther upward. Current employment is at 110,843 workers up from the prerecession peak in 2006 of 106,846. Retail and hospitality often is the most (and first) affected by economic changes because so much of the revenue generated is from discretionary income. Growth in employment and consistently high levels of posting may be a signal that retail and hospitality occupations have achieved a level of equilibrium that may be maintained in the near future.
24
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
25
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
26
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9. The top posting jobs in agriculture in Region 9 include Sales Representatives, Wholesale And Manufacturing, Technical And Scientific Products (51 postings), Nonfarm Animal Caretakers (36 postings), and Recreation Workers (24 postings). Postings in the agriculture cluster tend of fluctuate each quarter, yet positions for technical and scientific product sales remain at the top of the list.
27
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Agriculture occupation postings in Region 9 have continued a two quarter drop. With a seasonally-related peak of 505 postings in Q2 2014 (the highest yet recorded), postings are now approximately half that amount at 276 in Q4 2014. While postings should follow a seasonal trend, employers have not used online posting to the same degree as those in other clusters. Practices, however, are changing and more agriculture employers are using online job ads to find workers. Agriculture occupation postings represent 1.8% of all online job postings in Region 9.
Employment in agriculture jobs has been growing rapidly. Pre-recession 2005 to 2009 exhibited flat employment with little or no change each year. Since 2009, however, growth has been positive, strong, and linear. Current employment is 30,424 workers in Region 9 and growing.
28
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS WAGES
29
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
30
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
Q4 has been a time of expansion in the Region 9 labor market. The labor force remained relatively unchanged, falling by 444 individuals (a 0.1% drop) from Q3 to Q4 2014. This marks a second year of growth since the labor force’s lowest annual level in 2012. Employment increased by 4,980 workers from Q3 to Q4 2014, a 1.1% increase. Like the labor force, employment is marking a new high since the lowest levels experienced in 2011. Between Q3 and Q4 2014, the unemployment rate in Region 9 fell by 1.1 percentage points from 7.2% to 6.1%. Previously, the unemployment rate stagnated at 7.2% for quarters two and three in this region. Q4 marks the lowest unemployment rate recorded in Region 9 since early 2008. Because the labor force did not shift in a marked manner, this drop is due to job gains. Postings in the region experienced a modest but insignificant decline between Q3 and Q4 2014. Continuing on a slow steady drop from a peak in Q3 2013 (19,980), postings have fallen over the past five quarters to 15,318 in Q4 2014. During Q3 this year postings were moderately higher at 15,497. The WIN research team believes that postings have stagnated as a result of hiring. Employment is up, signaling that employers found the talent they needed during Q4. With postings stagnating, it could mean that employers do not intend to increase employment much further in Q1 2015. Of total online job postings in Region 9, 49.7% are from one of the six target occupation groups.
31
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
32
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH