WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 WIN REGION 路 Q4 2014
CONTENTS WIN Board Organizations Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality
GEOGRAPHY
WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on the 9-county region as a whole.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
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BOARD ORGANIZATIONS
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
The WIN region’s top in-demand occupations have been relatively unchanged for over a year running. Software Developers - Applications, Registered Nurses, and Retail Salespersons have topped online postings since early 2013. This quarter demand for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers increased and is twice the demand for Retail Salespersons, the 2nd most in-demand job. Online job posting data indicates that the top in-demand jobs in the region in Q4 2014 are related to logistics, customer service/sales, health care, and IT.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
Q4 2014 was a time of continued job growth, with regional employment rising by 16,151 individuals (0.7% growth over Q4 2014). Looking at the same timeframe one year ago, Q4 2013 to Q4 2014, 20,786 jobs were added. Quarterly growth is nearing 1%, and the positive trend in employment has continued. With 2,282,358 individuals employed, Southeast Michigan employment continues to increase, surpassing the pre-recession highs in mid-late 2008. The labor force, on the other hand, dropped by 0.5% between Q3 and Q4 2014, losing 13,374 workers. This is not uncommon, as the labor force tends to peak in the early fall and then drop steadily until spring. However, the Q4 2014 labor force is marginally lower (7,123 individuals, 0.3%) than during Q4 2013. While the labor force has experienced modest decline, it is generally stable with typical peaks and troughs throughout the business cycle. The regional labor force has avoided steep declines that occurred during the recession, but it has not seen substantial gains either.
The region’s unemployment dropped by 1.2 percentage points between Q3 and Q4 2014, to 7.0%. This drop is primarily due to job gains. This quarter marks Southeast Michigan’s lowest Q4 average unemployment rate since 2006, and the lowest on record since overall since November of 2007. The number of online job postings also increased this quarter, moving from 85,878 in Q3 2014 to 92,653 in Q4. This quarter’s increase sustains a high average of postings. Posting trends were inconsistent this quarter with only one cluster showing gains in postings while all others dropped. Health care was the sole cluster to have posting gains this quarter with a 12.9% increase over Q3 2014 (1,138 posting increase). This cluster is responsible for 17% of overall posting growth.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
WIN REGION DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trade and technician group are for First-Line Supervisors Of Production And Operating Workers, with 414. This occupation has maintained its top posting position since Q2 2014. The next most prevalent postings are for Production Workers, All Other with 334 postings in the WIN region. Skilled trade demand shifted this quarter away from machinist positions (CNC machinist demand dropped from the top three to the number four position) and more toward other production workers.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Like total postings in the WIN region, skilled trades and technician postings have dropped slightly since last quarter, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline. Postings in skilled trades have fluctuated around a trend-line of about 3,000 since 2011, and in Q4 2014 they dipped below this level. Skilled trade and technician postings represent 2.9% of total WIN region online job postings.
Employment in skilled trade and technician jobs is 104,229 (2014). This is still below the pre-recession 2005 level of 126,144, but much higher than the recession trough of 80,181 in 2009. While employment is still lower than pre-recession, there has been steady upward movement since the height of the recession, and the trend is continuously positive.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Mechanical Engineers once again top the list in this cluster, with1,173 postings in Q4 2014. Postings for this occupation remain high every quarter. Other top in-demand jobs include Electrical Engineers (929 postings and consistently the second most posted job), and Civil Engineers (864 postings). The occupations have maintained top positions for over a year (since Q4 2013). Demand for Commercial And Industrial Designers (478 postings) dropped this quarter relative to other occupations. It is usually the third most in-demand job, but has dropped to the fifth position inQ4 2014.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Engineering and design demand follows the region with a drop in postings this quarter. The fall from 6,102 in Q3 2014 to 5,578 in Q4 marks the third straight quarter of decline in demand for this occupational cluster. While postings have fallen, they remain close to the four-year average of 6,000 postings. Engineering and designer postings represent 6.0% of total online job postings in the WIN region.
Employment in engineering and design jobs has nearly reached pre-recession levels that were last seen in 2005. Occupational employment in this cluster is currently 74,198 individuals, very close to the 2005 level of 75,304. Like many occupational groups, employment reached its lowest point this decade in 2009 (54,775). Engineering and design employment has made a swift recovery in the region. Continued posting behavior, coupled with strong employment growth, suggests that the region will see further employment growth in this cluster in the future.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Not surprisingly, the top job in the IT cluster is once again Software Developers, Applications with 2,480 postings in Q4 2014. This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years and outpaces demand for other IT jobs by almost 2:1. Postings for this occupation and other top jobs such as Computer Systems Analysts (1,348 postings) and Computer User Support Specialists (1,153 postings) have maintained their top demand positions for several years. This indicates that employer demand remains high for workers with these specific skills. Considering the past posting behavior for these occupations and the direction of the regional economy, these trends are expected to continue.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings remain steady this quarter (nearly no change from 10,969 in Q3 2014 to 10,626 in Q4) after an unprecedented peak in Q2 2014 of 22,291. Postings have remained at close to average levels for the past two quarters. With postings so high in Q2 2014 and continuously increasing employment, it would not be surprising if employment in IT in 2015 grows at a higher rate than in the past. IT postings make up 11.5% of total postings in the WIN region, a relatively high demand occupation group.
Similar to engineering and design employment, both in trajectory and overall employment levels, IT employment has been climbing rapidly out of the recession. There are currently 74,309 IT workers in the region, close to the 2005 pre-recession peak of 74,692 employees. Employment in IT was lowest in 2009, similar to other clusters, with 63,757 workers. However, the recovery has been swift, and employment should continue to grow.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster. Like many other clusters, the top job is consistent from quarter to quarter. Postings for Registered Nurses once again top the list, with 2,713 in Q4 2014. This occupation has been the cluster’s topdemanded opportunity for several years running. Demand for registered nurses is extremely high, especially for those with specialties such as surgery, anesthesia, or labor and delivery. Other top postings in the region include those for Nursing Assistants (609 postings) and Physical Therapists (566 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Postings for health care workers have increased this quarter from 8,815 in Q3 2014 to 9,953 in Q4. This marks a second consecutive quarter of posting growth following a decline from the Q3 2013 peak of 11,259 postings. This is the only WIN cluster to experience posting growth in Q4 2014. Health care occupation online postings represent 10.7% all online job postings in the WIN region.
Employment in health care jobs has not followed similar patterns to other occupations, including a notable drop during the recession and then a clear recovery-driven increase. Over the past decade, employment in health care jobs has grown in an almost linear pattern. Currently, employment in health care is at 243,782, a slight drop from the 2013 level of 245,268 employees. There are competing forces within the health care cluster that could push employment in different directions. High posting levels are indicative of continued future employment growth. However, mergers among health systems could impose some negative pressure on employment, for example, in administrative positions. Despite these industry shifts, the region’s aging population and key regulatory changes will further elevate the need for health care workers in the longer run.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region. The top postings jobs in retail and hospitality remain consistent quarter to quarter. Retail Salespersons once again top the online-job demand lists, with 2,713 postings in Q4 2014. This occupation also often outpaces demand for the next highest posting job by 2:1. Sales Representatives, Wholesale And Manufacturing, Except Technical And Scientific Products is consistently in the number two position (1,957 postings). dit
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality demand remains stagnant this quarter with nearly no change in postings from 18,492 in Q3 2014 to 18,382 in Q4. Like other clusters in the region that have seen a leveling of postings, retail and hospitality employers may have achieved a fairly consistent level of posting that is sufficient to maintain their workforce with new and replacement hires. Retail & hospitality postings represent 19.8% of all online job postings in the WIN region, down from 22.1% in Q3.
Employment in retail and hospitality has not recovered fully since the recession. Retail and hospitality often is the most (and first) affected by economic changes because so much of the revenue generated is from discretionary income. Current retail and hospitality employment is at 632,825 workers, roughly equal to employment last year (633,479). In 2005 the level was 662,622. The lowest point for this occupation occurred in 2010 (594,267 workers). Even growth in both postings and employment may be a signal that retail and hospitality occupations have achieved a level of equilibrium that may be maintained in the near future.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
Q4 2014 was a time of continued job growth, with regional employment rising by 16,151 individuals (0.7% growth over Q4 2014). Quarterly growth is nearing 1%, and the positive trend in employment has continued. With 2,282,358 individuals employed, Southeast Michigan continues to increase employment past levels previously seen before the recession in mid-late 2008. The labor force, on the other hand, dropped by 0.5% between Q3 and Q4 2014, losing 13,374 workers. This is not uncommon as the labor force tends to peak in the early fall and then drop steadily until spring. While the labor force has experienced modest decline it is generally stable with typical peaks and troughs throughout the business cycle. The regional labor force has avoided steep declines that occurred during the recession, but it has not seen substantial gains either. The region’s unemployment in dropped by 1.2 percentage points from Q3 2014 to Q4 to 7.0%. This drop is primarily due to job gains. This quarter marks Southeast Michigan’s lowest Q4 average unemployment rate since 2006, and the lowest on record since overall since November of 2007. The number of online job postings also increased this quarter moving from 85,878 in Q3 2014 to 92,653 in Q4. Posting trends were inconsistent this quarter with only one cluster showing gains as all others with dropped in postings. Health care was the sole cluster to have posting gains this quarter with a 12.9% increase over Q3 2014 (1,138 posting increase). This cluster is responsible for 17% of overall posting growth. Jobs not captured by WIN’s occupational clusters have the lion’s share of posting gains this quarter. Of total online job postings in the WIN region, 51% are from one of the five target occupation groups. 26
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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