Q2 2015
WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 2nd QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 2nd quarter (Q2 includes April, May, and June) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the 9 counties of Southeast Michigan (Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne) and the City of Detroit. Below is a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety by using the link below: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
Q2 2015
Employment continues to increase in the region, adding 20,684 jobs during Q2 2015 (0.9% over the previous quarter), and roughly 30,000 since Q2 2014 one year ago. The region continues to gain jobs at roughly one percent per quarter, a slow but steady rate. While employment continued its year-to-year growth path, the labor force did not. Since 2011, the labor force has fluctuated on a standard business cycle but has not recovered from the large drop experienced during the recession. For the past four years, the labor force has hovered around 2,450,000 individuals, and 2015 data shows no change from this average. In any given year, the first quarter traditionally reflects the lowest employment throughout the year. The same has held true so far for 2015. Online job ads reached yet another new peak in the second quarter with regional employers posting 122,261 online postings. Postings have continued to grow in a linear pattern since the most recent valley in Q3 2014, when the number was only 85,878. “Second quarter often marks a decline in job postings compared to first quarter, but 2015 so far has been unusual,” said Lisa Katz, executive director for the Workforce Intelligence Network. “WIN anticipates the thirdquarter pattern to re-emerge, with postings peaking for the year and marking another quarter of growth.” With the labor force remaining stagnant, shifting only slightly each quarter, it may be difficult for companies to fill open positions. “The increase in online job ads is a signal that employers are ready to expand their workforce and need to fill open positions,” Katz added. “Without labor force expansion, this may prove difficult for many employers. Hopefully, continued job gains and strong posting activity will encourage more workers to re-enter the labor market.” What other factors affect employment? Interest rate changes/signals, indices, and other metrics can help round out the employment story. • Interest rates are not going to rise anytime soon. If employers continue to add jobs at a slow rate (either due to company choices or lack of available talent) then interest rate increases may take time. For now, the Federal Reserve does not believe the economy is back where it should be in order to increase interest rates. While employment is increasing, it is a far cry from being close to “full-employment” levels that would warrant a shift in interest rates and increase the cost of borrowing. See article here. • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) remains above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The June 2015 rate grew faster than previous rates indicating further economic growth and expansion. See article here. • Consumer confidence, as surveyed by University of Michigan, shows an increasing pattern throughout early 2015. The first two months of Q3 2015 show a slight drop in sentiment but with levels still above 2014 averages. As consumer confidence increases and remains high, aggregate demand in the economy is likely to follow. See article here.
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
TOTAL POSTINGS Q2 2015 From Q1 to Q2 2015, regional postings increased 15 percent to 122,000, the highest number of online job ads ever recorded. All occupational clusters that WIN analyzes in depth (see below) gained postings during Q2 2015. Posting growth geographically was led by Oakland and Wayne Counties (41 percent and 39.2 percent of the total regional posting growth, respectively). All nine counties in the region saw an increase in postings from Q1 to Q2 2015. Postings increased by more than seven percent in every county, with many surpassing ten percent growth in Q2.
SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYS
HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks four key occupational clusters regularly, including advanced manufacturing (broken down by engineering/design occupations and skilled trades/technician occupations), health care, information technology, and retail and hospitality. Together, these clusters accounted for 45 percent of all Q2 2015 online job ads in the region, and each experienced posting gains of at least 5 percent compared to Q1 2015. Posting growth in the region was led by three occupational clusters: Engineering & Design (24.1 percent growth), Health Care (22.3 percent growth), and Retail & Hospitality (11.2 percent growth).
During Q1 2015, 100 percent of the growth in total online job postings occurred in the WINanalyzed clusters. In Q2 2015, however, only 52 percent of the increase in online postings occurred in WIN-analyzed clusters. The remaining 48 percent of posting activity increases occurred in occupations not included in WIN’s commonly-tracked occupational clusters. The most notable growth in job postings outside of the WIN clusters occurred in the following occupations: • • • • •
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers Maintenance and repair workers Managers Business intelligence analysts, and Administrative assistants
See also the accompanying data tables for county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.
SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1. Software Developers, Applications (5,649 postings) 2. Registered Nurses (4,519 postings) 3. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (4,097 postings) 4. Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (2,868 postings) 5. Retail Salespersons (2,759 postings) 6. Customer Service Representatives (2,387 postings) 7. Mechanical Engineers (2,326 postings) 8. First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (2,130 postings) 9. Computer Systems Analysts (1,755 postings) 10. Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (1,721 postings) The WIN region’s top in-demand occupations have been relatively unchanged for over a year running, but the occupations that comprise the list shift in rank order depending on the point in the business cycle. Software developers-applications, registered nurses, and heavy and tractortrailer truck drivers are the top in-demand positions for another quarter running. During Q2 2015, the most notable shift in the rankings occurred in postings related to sales. Sales representatives – wholesale and manufacturing – rose to the fourth most in-demand occupation with 2,868 postings, up 12 percent from 2,560 and number five in the rankings in Q1 2015. This sales occupation traditionally has ranked just behind retail salespersons. Other notable trends include the following: • • •
Demand for software developers outpaced all other jobs with 5,649 postings, up from 5,090 online ads (nearly 11%) in Q1 2015. Demand for truck drivers surged almost 30% to 4,097 from 3,158 postings in Q1 2015, maintaining its 3rd place position. Postings for registered nurses increased almost 22% to 4,519, up from 3,707 postings in Q1 2015, marking yet another new high for the occupation.
SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT The 2015 data demonstrated further increases in employment in the region and continued stagnation in the labor force. Second quarter employment expanded 0.9 percent, adding 20,684 jobs throughout the region. Compared to Q2 2014, average employment is roughly 30,000 workers higher, a positive outcome over last year. While employment continued growing, the labor force did not follow the same trend. Since the end of the recession, the labor force has hovered around 2,450,000 individuals, and 2015 data shows no change from this average. With growing employment and no change in the labor force, the unemployment rate in the region continued to drop. During Q2 2015, the average unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, close to the state average of 5.5 percent. As the labor force was unchanged, the drop in unemployment in Q2 2015 can be attributed to job growth.
NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between the previously released Q4 2013 report and the Q1 2014 report. All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
ABOUT WIN
The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between eight community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges
Michigan Works! Agencies
Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
Detroit Employment Solutions Corp. Genesee-Shiawassee Michigan Works! Livingston County Michigan Works! Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works! Oakland County Michigan Works! Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Washtenaw County Michigan Works!
SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q2 2015
ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q2 2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POSTINGS Q2 2015
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q2 2015
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q2 2015
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH