POWER CUTS & GRID INSTABILITY - THE FACE OF SOUTH AFRICA TODAY?

South Africa is faced with the prospect of the country’s worst-ever power cuts - up to 16-hours a day. There are issues with the coal supply - powerful criminal cartels are allegedly stealing a billion rand ($52m; £42m) every month from Eskom and its coal-fired power stations. Today, more than 80% of South Africa’s electricity is generated by coal-fired power stations - an astonishing figure. As a result, the country is ranked as the world’s 14th largest emitter of carbon-dioxide, despite having only the 33rd biggest economy.

Recently, former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter publicly highlighted that one of the biggest challenges the power utility is facing is combating internal crime syndicates which he says are contributing to the country’s power crisis.

South Africa’s electricity utility, insists a national grid collapse is ‘unlikely’ despite public warnings in the media and from government sources - and that it would take an ‘unforeseen and sudden sequence of events’ to lead to a countrywide loss of supply. Nevertheless, public and private sector organisations have been preparing for the worst by running scenarios and diverting scarce funds to source backup solutions.

Grid collapse is the total or partial interruption or suspension of electrical power supply, resulting in widespread outages. It could range from a province being without electricity to a country-wide blackout.

South Africa has already adopted a strategy of load shedding’ or power cuts for the past 15 years, as ageing power stations are taken offline for urgent repairs or stop working altogether. As the duration and frequency of outages have steadily worsened, the prospect of a total grid collapse has grown.

The country’s transition to green fuels has been hampered by capacity issues and powerful vested interests. This is in sharp contrast to other African middle-income countries such as Kenya, which uses renewables for 80% of its energy supply. Rapacious corruption, sabotage of power plants, and cable theft by crime syndicates all contribute to a dismal picture.

South Africa is not alone when it comes to the threat of grid collapse. Botswana too has experienced a temporary shutdown in May 2023.

Within South Africa’s economy organisations and residents are looking to reduce their dependence on grid power by investing in alternatives such as solar panels and wind & water turbines and BESS systems. Unfortunately there are examples where operations which have been installing backup batteries and generators have discovered them stolen not long afterwards. Diesel fuel is also becoming expensive - making this another lucrative target for criminals - and so the situation escalates.

AIDAN TURNBULL Managing Editor

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