Climate Change and Biodiversity focus of December 2020 Forest Seminar (Part 1) By Tony Bull, President of the Eastern Ontario Model Forest, and Renfrew County Chapter
Introduction The twin themes of the December Seminar (hosted by the Eastern Ontario Model Forest (EOMF) and the Ottawa Valley Section of the Canadian Institute of Forestry (CIF)) were planetary threats due to humaninduced climate change on one hand and the serious loss of biodiversity evidenced by enhanced extinction rates on the other hand. In the next issue I will explore the seriousness of these challenges and some possible bases for optimism that I have observed in my reading. The Seminar featured three speakers addressing these two urgent environmental challenges. The Climate Change Challenge John Pedlar, Canadian Forest Service Forest Landscape Biologist spoke of future climate scenarios and what adaptation can be done to ensure future intact forests. He said that over the last 100 years we have seen already a one-degree centigrade increase in mean temperature. Looking forward, in a low emission scenario we could see an increase of one to two degrees above the current average. In a high emission scenario, it could be as much as five to nine degrees higher.
It is estimated that a four-degree northward movement or a two-degree southward movement would result in a 90% growth response. His work suggests that, on average, seed sources can be moved approximately five degrees northward (i.e., several hundred kilometers in the relatively flat terrain of eastern Canada) before exhibiting growth declines >10% relative to the local seed source. Forests as a positive influence on climate change Malcolm Cockwell is the manager of the 40 thousandhectare Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve on the south west border of Algonquin Park. The overriding mission is “to uphold a strong land ethic”. He said that their foresters are united in managing for many benefits; wildlife, water, biodiversity, and so on. The forest is certified to the Forest Stewardship Council® sustainable forest certification system. Of the 10 principles that are adhered to, principle six addresses the all-important biodiversity conservation role of the forest.
With the low emission scenario there would be an increase in precipitation; perhaps 9%. The high emission scenario would bring a big increase in precipitation in the north. But even with higher precipitation the water balance would be drier for Canada due to higher evapo-transpiration rates. Eastern Ontario could be quite dry by the end of the century. There would also be an increase in weather events such as wind and droughts; late spring frosts; that is, less predictability. In Eastern Ontario, a changed fire zone could make it challenging to keep trees on the landscape. Moreover, forest pests will migrate northwards (as they are doing now). Anticipating changes in climate it is possible to have assisted migration of species northward or encouraging modest range expansions. It is necessary to examine where seed sources should be accessed for planting.
Winter Forestry Tour Photo Credit: Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve Ltd.
Within that context the management of the forest seeks to unlock the value of the many services that the forest provides; recreation, education, research, forest products as examples. What Malcolm described was the unlocking of the benefit of carbon capture and storage that arises from forest growth.
The Ontario Woodlander—An Ontario Woodlot Association Quarterly. Issue 102, March 2021
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