Risk assessment for Belém, Pará to be expanded ahead of COP30 / 02
Third annual fly-in brings Woodwell Climate’s work to the national policy stage / 03
Envisioning the future of methane research / 04
How climate change has altered boreal fire regimes / 06
In the news: highlights / 07
Woodwell Climate partners with IPAM Amazônia and State of Pará, Brazil to address the local impacts of climate change in Belém and throughout the Amazon
On Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 10:00 a.m EDT, representatives from Woodwell Climate Research Center and IPAM Amazônia joined Governor of Pará, Brazil, Helder Barbalho, for a special Climate Week event to explore the impacts of climate change on the state of Pará, and launch a new partnership to develop an in-depth climate risk assessment for the state that can inform local adaptation plans and solutions.
“Three years ago, Woodwell Climate partnered with the UK COP26 Presidency on research that showed the lack of access to tailored, actionable climate risk information was a critical barrier to climate mitigation and resilience planning at the national and sub-national level,” said Dr. Wayne Walker, Chief Scientific Officer for Woodwell Climate Research Center. “Now, we are proud to be partnering with next year’s COP30 host on work that provides a clear example of how to bridge this important information gap for the state of Pará.”
In 2021, Woodwell Climate and IPAM conducted an initial climate risk assessment for Belém, the capital of Pará and host of next year’s UN climate negotiations, COP30. The study found that the hottest months in the region are getting hotter, and a growing number of days per year are hitting dangerously high wet-bulb—or “feels like”—temperatures, increasing risk of severe heat stress, especially in a city where most economic activities take place outdoors. It also found that the fire season in Pará is getting longer, exposing local communities to extended periods of worsening air quality. A new, more comprehensive climate risk assessment, the initial results of which were presented during Wednesday’s event, shows that Belém is, and will continue to be, at high risk of severe flooding.
“If climate change continues on its current path, Pará will face crises on multiple fronts—with forests devastated by drought and fire, and cities facing devastating extreme heat and flooding,”
said Dr. Ludmila Rattis, Assistant Scientist in Woodwell Climate’s Tropics Program. “The roots of these challenges are global and understanding that can drive urgent action to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and begin necessary adaptation efforts.”
Through this new agreement, Woodwell Climate, IPAM Amazônia, and the Pará government will build on the findings of these assessments to analyze the climate risks facing the Pará region and co-develop effective climate solutions to address them, including identifying areas where green infrastructure could be implemented, pathways to transition to new, more sustainable economies in Pará and across the Amazon, and other mitigation and adaptation strategies.
“The quality of science to support decision-making is fundamental,” said Governor Helder Barbalho. “As the capitol [of Pará] and as the host city of COP30 next year, Belém at this moment has the opportunity for major infrastructure works that will not be the whole solution, but certainly can improve water management, sanitation management, macro-drainage infrastructure to maintain the character of a city surrounded by rivers.”
As a part of this effort, Woodwell Climate will also work with IPAM and the Pará government to develop a case study, as a part of Woodwell’s Unlocking Land-based Opportunities for Climate Solutions (UnLOCS) initiative, to investigate how to effectively scale nature-based climate solutions in Pará leveraging mechanisms like the voluntary carbon market, with the goal of dramatically reducing emissions from land use while delivering meaningful benefits to local communities, ecosystems, and economies.
“We cannot imagine that looking at the forest requires [only] public policies for the forest,” said Governor Barbalho. “We need to be able to look at the forest, but know that the impact of them will require us to act in urban centers.”
“I want to reaffirm IPAM’s commitment to this partnership that we have had with the government of Pará, the State of Pará, and the people of Pará,” said André Guimarães, Executive Director of IPAM Amazônia (Amazon Environmental Research Institute).
“We have to work collectively. There is no single solution to the problems we are facing today.”
“This is an incredible opportunity to focus the world’s attention on tropical forests, on Brazil, on Pará,” said Dr. R. Max Holmes, President and CEO of Woodwell Climate Research Center. “We all understand that the Amazon is an incredibly important region, not just for Brazil and for the people that live there, but for the entire world—for all of us.”
Heather Goldstone Chief Communications Officer
Woodwell Climate’s Government Relations team led the Center’s third annual D.C. fly-in this September, and you might say the third time was the charm.
“It was really impressive to see how we’ve built over the three years of doing the fly-in,” said Laura Uttley, Director of Government Relations. “The scale and scope of meetings, having five of 13 Congressional meetings be with Members themselves, and to have 17 Board members, senior leaders, and scientists participate—it’s just really exciting.”
Over the course of three days, the Woodwell Climate delegation tackled a range of near-term legislative priorities, such as the Natural Climate Solutions Research and Extension Act, standalone legislation that is currently being considered as part of Farm Bill negotiations and was adapted in the House version of the Farm Bill as “soil health research,” as well as longer-term policy development and relationship building.
Engagements spanned the full diversity of Woodwell Climate’s work. Meetings with leadership of the House Climate Solutions Caucus and Conservative Climate
Caucus focused on the economic impacts of climate change and the need for expanded national climate services to make risk information available to all communities. A Permafrost Pathways delegation, including representatives of Alaska Native partner communities, shared a range of perspectives on rapid Arctic change with Alaska legislators and the Senate Indian Affairs Committee. One group talked with staff in the office of Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) of New York about carbon markets, and with Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) about Massachusetts-based research, including river monitoring and wetland restoration. Woodwell Climate also met with Democratic Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA), Chair of the Democratic Caucus, to discuss opportunities to advance and protect climate policies, especially as leadership considers agendas for the next Congress.
Across all the sub-teams and meetings, Uttley says three big takeaways stood out:
1. Relationships matter. That Woodwell’s delegation secured thirteen Congressional meetings—five of them with Members
Follow along as world-renowned scientists join forces to explore future paths in methane flux research
Kaeli
Bennett Science Writer Intern
themselves, including leadership of key committees and caucuses—is a testament to the Center’s credibility and the depth of relationships that the Government Relations team is building. A summer of high-profile Supreme Court decisions, the end of the fiscal year looming, and a tumultuous election cycle all contributed to a chaotic energy on the Hill in September, and legislators were only in session for three weeks between their summer recess and a break for election activities. Despite those pressures, Uttley says lawmakers and their staff were enthusiastic and engaged.
She attributes that to months (years, really) of relationship building grounded in a “here’s where we agree, and here’s how we can help” approach. An enormous amount of time and thought goes into crafting meeting agendas and materials that meet legislators where they are, address their needs and interests, and highlight common ground and opportunities for progress.
Consistency is also key, Uttley says. While individual Members come and go, and the political climate shifts, Woodwell Climate’s annual fly-in and growing year-round presence in Washington, D.C.
In August, nearly 50 scientists from around the world joined Woodwell Climate’s Dr. Jennifer Watts and Kathleen Savage at The University of Maine Orono for their workshop about methane flux. Participants were invited because of their interest in advancing research on natural methane flux around the world.
Most of the first two days of the workshop looked like this—a presenter sharing their research while researchers and modelers diligently listened. Presentation topics included historic facts about Howland Research Forest, research at universities and science organizations, and scientific modeling. Dr. Eric Davidson, of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, reminisced on memories of Dr. George Woodwell, founder of Woodwell Climate Research Center, who passed away earlier in the summer. The two were instrumental in the early phases of methane research at Howland.
Participants created smaller groups on the second day of the workshop to discuss shortcomings in current methane research and ideate its future. Among the many takeaways, one was identified by every group: methane research displays vast disparities globally. Research and resources are desperately needed in some countries, like the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Many of the tools we use to measure methane emissions are not universally available. Eddy covariance towers, which measure the large-scale flux of methane (among other molecules), are very expensive to install and maintain. In regions where towers
above: Methane flux workshop participants. / photo by Kaeli Bennett
are reminders that we are a reliable resource of information, and in it for the long haul.
2. Caucuses and committees are impact amplifiers. Meetings with individual legislators and/or their staff can be incredibly productive, but time is limited. Briefing an entire committee or meeting with leadership of a caucus group can be an effective way to get scientific expertise and policy priorities to many legislators at once. For example, part of the Woodwell delegation met with leadership of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus (more than 60 members), staff for the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition (100 Democratic members), and staff for the Conservative Climate Caucus, which has more than 80 Republican members, all interested in
pragmatic climate solutions. These larger groups are also less susceptible to disruption through election cycles, which creates opportunities to work on policy agendas with a longer runway.
3. Accessible information makes a difference. Maps on the table, personal accounts of climate impacts, data tailored to a legislator’s district, and plain language science summaries were all on display during the fly-in, and Uttley says the Center’s commitment to making climate science relevant and accessible is a distinguishing feature that opens doors and builds relationships.
“To be able to find hooks and make climate science accessible for such a range of audiences on so many different topics is really impactful,” Uttley said.
Overall, Uttley said being in the room as scientists, community members, and policymakers —and seeing the energy they all came away with—left her with one overarching takeaway: Change is possible and “the Climate Science for Change motto is actually lived; it’s not just something we say.”
are not an option, Savage hypothesizes it may be wiser to spend money on creating jobs where methane flux is measured by hand. This economic alternative gets us closer to a global account of methane.
Howland Research Forest is a 220 hectare plot located in the transition zone from eastern deciduous to eastern North American boreal forest. Collaborations with research institutions including the US Forest Service, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), UMaine Orono, and Woodwell Climate date back to 1987. Three eddy flux towers sit in Howland Forest, constantly measuring Carbon dioxide cycling throughout the site. Howland boasts the second longest flux record, 28 years, following only Harvard Forest.
The large group of workshop participants split into two smaller groups to explore field sites throughout Howland Forest. One group was led by Dr. Shawn Fraver of UMaine, who has been working in the forest for decades. He led each group into the forest along a small trail. They visited numerous sites, including a plot established by NASA, with each tree’s geographic coordinates accurately recorded in a three-hectare radius.
Fraver excitedly showed off the oldest tree in Maine, a yellow birch dating back to the mid-seventeenth century. The birch looked similar to every other tree surrounding it, although a little thicker. This little plot of forest surrounding the yellow birch may include other trees that date back almost as far, creating a stand that has been alive since before the United States was founded.
Savage took charge of another group, showing off her plots with low-to-the-ground machinery measuring source-sink methane transitions in Howland Forest.
Roel Ruzol, site manager of Howland Research Forest, helped a few people get outfitted in safety gear to climb the main tower. The tower reaches above the treeline and measures the carbon respiration and flux of the entire forest. It is one of three towers in the forest—all working together to accurately measure what’s being captured and what’s being emitted by the forest. This flux record supplies comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions data— getting us one step closer to a global account of methane storage.
It is crucial to advance research about methane because it sits outside carbon’s spotlight. Global measurements of carbon stores and atmospheric carbon are more comprehensive, but our knowledge of how much methane is where is less detailed. There are vast disparities in frequency and accuracy of methane research across the world—with a noticeable lack in countries with less resources but just as valuable ecosystems.
“Think of methane budgets like a bank account,” said Savage, “It’s not going to tell you where or how much money to spend, but you better know how much you have.”
Both climate research and climate policy need a full and accurate accounting of where methane is stored, and how much, in order to make effective strides forward. The participants of this workshop intend to publish a Perspectives piece in Nature Communications or a similar journal detailing their conclusions. This collaboration leads the way toward a future with the data to produce change.
Fire is a necessary element in northern forests, but with climate change, these fires are shifting to a far less natural regime—one that threatens the ecosystem instead of nurturing it.
Boreal tree species, like black spruce, have co-evolved over millennia with a steady regime of low-frequency, high-intensity fires, usually ignited by lightning strikes. These fires promote turnover in vegetation and foster new growth. On average, every 100 to 150 years, an intense “stand-replacing” fire might completely raze a patch of forest, opening a space for young seedlings to take root.
But rapid warming in northern latitudes has intensified this cycle, sparking large fires on the landscape more frequently, jeopardizing regeneration, and releasing massive amounts of carbon that will feed additional warming. Here’s how climate change is impacting boreal fires.
In order for a fire to start, you need three things—favorable climatic conditions, a fuel source, and an ignition source. These elements, referred to as the triangle of fire, are all being exacerbated as boreal forests warm, resulting in a fire regime with much larger and more frequent fires than the forests evolved with.
Forest fires only ignite in the right conditions, when high temperatures combine with dryness in the summer months. As northern latitudes warm at a rate three to four times faster than the rest of the globe, fire seasons in the boreal have lengthened, and the number of fire-risk days have increased.
In some areas of high-latitude forest, climate change has
changed the dynamics of snowfall and snow cover disappearance. The rate of spring snowmelt is often an important factor in water availability on a landscape throughout the summer. A recent paper, led by Dr. Thomas Hessilt of Vrije University in collaboration with Woodwell Associate Scientist, Dr. Brendan Rogers, found that earlier snow cover disappearance resulted in increased fire ignitions. Early snow disappearance was also associated with earlier-season fires, which were more likely to grow larger—on average 77% larger than historical fires.
The second requirement for fires to start is available “fuel”. In a forest, that’s vegetation (both living and dead) as well as carbon-rich soils that have built up over centuries. Here, the warming climate plays a role in priming vegetation to burn. A paper co-authored by Rogers has demonstrated temperatures above approximately 71°F in the forest canopy can be a useful indicator for the ignition and spread of “mega-fires,” which spread massive distances through the upper branches of trees. The findings suggest that heat-stressed vegetation plays a big role in triggering these large fires.
Warming has also triggered a feedback loop around fuel in boreal systems. In North America, the historically dominant black spruce is struggling to regenerate between frequent, intense fires. In some places, it is being replaced by competitor species like white spruce or aspen, which don’t support the same shaded, mossy environment that insulates frozen, carbon-rich soils called permafrost, making the ground more vulnerable to deep-burning fires. When permafrost soils thaw and burn, they release carbon that has been stored—sometimes for thousands of years—contributing to the acceleration of warming.
Finally, fires need an ignition source. In the boreal, natural ignitions from lightning are the most frequent culprit, although human-caused ignitions have become more common as development expands into northern forests. Because of lightning’s ephemeral nature, it has been difficult to quantify the impacts of climate change on lightning strikes, but recent research has shown lightning ignitions have been increasing since 1975, and that record numbers of lightning ignitions correlated with years of record large fires. Some models indicate summer lightning rates will continue to increase as global temperatures rise.
There is also evidence showing that a certain type of lightning— one more likely to result in ignition—has been increasing. This “hot lightning” is a type of lightning strike that channels an electrical charge for an extended period of time and tends to correlate more frequently with ignitions. Analysis of satellite data suggests that with every one degree celsius of the Earth’s warming, there might be a 10% increase in the frequency of these hot lightning strikes. That, coupled with increasingly dry conditions, sets the stage for more frequent fire ignitions.
So climate change is intensifying every side of the triangle of fire, and the combined effects are resulting in more frequent,
Alaska Public Media’s KYUK interviewed Dr. Sue Natali and Darcy Peter about Permafrost Pathways’ work with tribal partners this summer in Akiak and elsewhere in Alaska.
Health in Harmony’s Ashley Emerson was featured on The Rockefeller Foundation’s Big Bets Community Spotlight and associated newsletter, and mentioned collaborations with Woodwell Climate.
Dr. Foster Brown has gotten television airtime recently: He spoke with TV Norte Acre about increasing smoke levels and respiratory illness in the region (see 42:30); he was featured in a nearly hour-long interview program on Rede TV covering drought and climate change; the Peruvian program Buenos Dias, Madre de Dios interviewed him about the ongoing drought (see 8:45); and EcoAcre TV interviewed Foster about deforestation in the Amazon.
Bloomberg quoted Dr. Jen Francis on how the jet stream is causing historic rainfall and flooding across four continents.
Dr. Mike Coe was quoted on climate impacts to the Amazon rainforest in a Bloomberg article about Chief Raoni Metuktire, an Indigenous activist who has been advocating for protection of the Amazon for decades.
larger, more intense blazes that contribute more carbon to the atmosphere. While the permanent solution to bring fires back to their natural regimes lies in curbing global emissions, research from Woodwell Climate suggests that firefighting in boreal forests can be a successful emissions mitigation strategy. And a cost effective one too—perhaps as little as $13 per metric ton of carbon dioxide avoided, which puts it on par with other carbon mitigation solutions like onshore wind or utility-scale solar. It also has the added benefit of protecting communities from the health risk of wildfire smoke.
Rogers, along with Senior Science Policy Advisor Dr. Peter Frumhoff, and Postdoctoral Researcher Dr. Kayla Mathes have begun work in collaboration with the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to pilot this solution as part of the Permafrost Pathways project. Yukon Flats is underlain by large tracts of particularly carbon-rich permafrost soils, making it a good candidate for fire suppression tactics to protect stored carbon.
The project will be the first of its kind—working with communities in and around the Refuge as well as U.S. agencies to develop and test best practices around fighting boreal fires specifically to protect carbon. Broadening deployment of fire management could be one strategy to mitigate the worst effects of intensifying boreal fires, buying time we need to get global emissions in check.
Grist interviewed Darcy Peter for a story about mercury released by thawing permafrost, which was republished in High Country News Inside Climate News also used one of Darcy’s quotes in a story about toxic metals in glacier melt, which they featured in their email newsletter.
NSF announced the latest awardees of the Civic Innovation Challenge (CIVIC), which include a project led by Dr. Anna Liljedahl: Building Resilient Arctic Communities to Permafrost Thaw Hazards
Dr. Jen Francis was quoted in a New Scientist article about a poleward shift in the jet stream linked to climate change. She also spoke to Travel and Leisure about how climate change may impact cruising.
A Q&A article from Phys.org covered ongoing research led by Dr. Anna Liljedahl that aims to create a pan-Arctic map of the tundra capillary system, a network of landscape depressions created by freezing, thawing, and draining water.
A Gadgets360 article about methane craters mentioned work by Woodwell Climate to track, model, and predict Arctic landscape change.
